PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder 
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
  • Threads: 20
  • Posts: 3153
June 11th, 2019 at 10:05:43 PM permalink
He won’t have any trouble getting a max deal. He might not be ready for opening night next year but he will be back. He might not be explosive anymore but he’s so talented with an amazing jumper that he doesn’t necessarily need to be explosive to be great.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 386
June 12th, 2019 at 3:11:10 AM permalink
If you are planning to bet on the over, then the 210.5 @ MIRAGE-MGM and TREASURE ISLAND looks good***, I would expect it to be 211.5-212.5 at most books within 16 hours.

***: I am probably going to have a small bet on the under if it gets out to 214.5 + ( I am not betting on the over at this time).

---------
update (~1230 pm Pac time)

My line estimate hasn't changed (still Raptors @ +2.0) but I think the next line change will be towards the Warriors (78% chance that they go to -3 at most to all books).
In other words, if you are a Warriors punter you should take the -2.5 (available at most Vegas books atm) and,
If you are a Raptors punter you should wait or take the +3.0 (available at COASTS, WYNN, CIRCA and MIRAGE-MGM according to Vegas Insider).

The 210.5 total is gone , and it is now between 211 - 212, with most @ 211.5.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 12, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 386
June 12th, 2019 at 8:14:22 PM permalink
looney is still “50/50”, and it looks like the line is going to stabilise between 2.5 and 3 for now

Since I will probably be asleep when they decide If looney*** is in or out, then i would probably adjust my estimate for warriors to -1 (if he his out) and up to -3.25 ( if he is in)

***: this is just my estimate , I will put up a more rounded estimate when I look at the website tomorrow that gives me their estimate of what it is worth having him play (or not)

Got to 212.5 with at least one book now, but most are between 211 and 212 (211.5 average),
If you like the under you should bet now,
If you like the over wait as I think it will be between 211 and 210, in 5 hours or less

Sent by phone
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 12, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 386
June 13th, 2019 at 12:43:50 PM permalink
Going through the "vegas insider line movements" page, it looked like the total may have touched 211 at some books before spiking and now the 212.5 seems to be the average (212, 212.5 and one book with 214***).

***: Available at stations according to Vegas insider,

There is + 3 available for the Raptors @ two books now, the rest are +2.5 (will still be fairly stable til the books/punters have an idea about looney)

i think the fair total should be around 212, so I had a 440 on the over 210.5 I (would have preferred to bet on the under, but only if it gets out to 214 +).

-------
Update (~ 2pm pac time)

the 214 is no longer available at STATIONS, 213 @ PEPPERMILL is the highest (most are at 212 or 212.5)

-------
Update (~ 440pm pac time)

If you are going to bet the under, I recommend you take the 213 @ PEPPERMILL, as I think the average total is about to go to 211.5 (or lower).

Looney is active, and I think the line should hover around -2.5 to -3 for the Warriors, by game time.

-----
Posted about 515 pm Pac time

My bets are:

note: bets with a *** next to them can be cancelled or amended (usually for "free") with the bookmaker i use.

***Raptors @ + 4.5: 1440 to win 1200
***Over 210.5: 110 to win 100 (was originally a bigger bet)
Warriors (win 3rd quarter) : 90 @ -120 (just a "for fun" wager)

Teaser 1 (Ties win, 4.5 point basketball and 5.5 point football):

600 @ +310

6/13/19 9:05pm 532 Golden State Warriors (1st 48 min&&& ) +4^^^ * vs Toronto Raptors
8/31/19 3:30pm College Football 181 South Carolina -2 * vs North Carolina
8/31/19 4:00pm College Football 188 Boston College +8 * vs Virginia Tech
8/31/19 7:30pm College Football 204 Pittsburgh U +8 * vs Virginia

Teaser 2 (also a Ties win, 4.5 point basketball and 5.5 point football):

1400 @ +101

6/13/19 9:05pm 532 Golden State Warriors (1st 48 min&&&) +4^^^ * vs Toronto Raptors
6/15/19 7:00pm Canadian Football 686 Calgary Stampeders -2½ * vs Ottawa Redblacks

&&&: this means that this part of the bet wins if the game ends in a regulation tie.

^^^: even though it is officially a 4.5 pt basketball teaser, I only just had the bet so I am getting the equivalent of 7 points (since it is "ties win") based on the current spread on offer, and the fact that it "passes through 0" doesn't matter, because of the above explanation (see &&&),

--------
Update (~520 pm)

Looks like the average public line is going to go from 2.5 and could head towards 2 (70% chance),
So if you are a Raptors punter you should take the +3 available (MGM Mirage, according to Vegas insider)
If you are a Warriors punter you should wait, as I think the -2.5 (or better) will still be available by game time.

The total is hovering around 211.5-212 (average)

Note: this will be the last update until after the game.

---------
About 2-22 left in the third, k t is out and getting checked

Update: He will not be back for this game

Sent by phone

———-
Update (after game)

Raptors: 114
Warriors: 110

All my bets for this game have won. just have to hope the other legs in my teaser bet, get up too.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 13, 2019

  • Jump to: