ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 463
June 5th, 2019 at 5:15:23 PM permalink
Update:

Warriors punters : take the -3 or wait til game time
Raptors punters : take the +3.5 /4***available (but you should have been on by now at the better spread, if you knew you wanted to back them )

***: @ Peppermill according to Vegas insider

Still don’t know if klay is in or out?

——-
Update 2(time out with about 730 left on the clock q1)

Backed the warriors “live” @ + 2.5and now can win 650 if raptors beat the spread and lose 820 if the warriors win by more than 6. “Hoping for a middle, happy with raptors ats”

Partiality Cashed out of the under when the live betting was 209.5
, so can win 320 or lose 0.

——
Update 3 (half time)
Too bad i didn’t wait until later for my live bet on warriors (I could have gotten +4.5 at half-time and +6.5 when the raptors were 52-38!!!)

!!!: I think that was available when the raptors had their biggest lead of the 1st half (but I am not watching the game, so not 100% )

Looks like the total will be over 214, so I am glad I can only lose 0 on that bet now.

Sent by phone
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 5, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 463
June 5th, 2019 at 7:58:35 PM permalink
G4: my Early estimated spread is + 2.5 raptors (based on an estimated range of +1.75 to +3.25)

this early estimate assumes klay is a 50/50 chance and k d is a 0-12.5% chance of playing.

—-
Update (about 2pm, Queensland, Australia time)

Took 1650 to win 1500 @ +5.5 on the raptors

I think the spread will move similar to g3, so warriors punters should wait and see and raptors punters should bet early.
Note: this “spread movement prediction “ is based on my chances of key players playing (k d high chance of not playing and klay being a “coin-flip” atm)

Sent by phone

---------------

Update (about 550 am Pac time)

Official injury updates
Klay Thompson - Hamstring - Probable - 75% chance to play (official) and ~90% (based on historical data)
Kevin Durant - Calf - Questionable - 50% chance to play (official) and ~55% (based on historical data)

After this update, I will reduce my bet quite a bit or even "sit out"*** of this game.

***: Even if I decide to "cancel my bet" for this game, I will still try to post updates of which way I think the spread on offer will change (like I did for previous posts).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 6, 2019
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 463
June 6th, 2019 at 12:19:52 PM permalink
Player update:
Klay Thompson - Hamstring - Active

-----
Update (1250 pm Pac Time)

Raptors punters should take the +5.5,
Warriors punters should wait.

6/6/19 1235 PM (Pac Time)- Kevin Durant - Calf - Out

----
Update 2 (110 pm Pac time)

PEPPERMILL is still offering 5.5 according to vegas insider (most others are 5, and at least one is 4.5)

-----
Update 3 (127 pm Pac time)

5.5 is no longer on offer, 5 is now the best.

Still recommend Raptors punters to take the +5, if they haven't gotten on yet.
Warriors punters should wait

Also, the total looks like it will trend down, you can still get U216.5 at some books.
Over punters should wait and see , as i think the total will go to 216*** or less (95%*** chance, ).

***: changed from 215.5 and 85%, @ 147 pm (pac time)

-----
Update 4 (1105 pm Pac Time)

Most online books are +4.5, but there are still quite a few vegas books @ +5.0 (vegas insider) for the Raptors (so Raptors punters should back them now, if they haven't already)
Warriors punters should still hold off, and take a punt that the closing line will be the same or better than -4.5.

Also, I don't have anything to update of what I think will happen to the total, at this time.

Note:, 5 hours from now will probably be my last update (as I will be away from the internet/ my computer for 18-20 hours after that).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Jun 6, 2019
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
  • Threads: 76
  • Posts: 5247
Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
June 6th, 2019 at 1:33:56 PM permalink
Kyle Lowry crashes into fans on the sideline
Nearby, Warriors investor Mark Stevens, that Kyle Lowry never touched, gave the NBA player a shove
WTF
You never ever put your hands on somebody that never touched you and give them a shove
How would Mark Stevens like it if Kyle Lowry came into his office and gave him a shove. Kyle would be arrested.


"A team representative must be held to the highest possible standard, and the conduct of Golden State Warriors investor Mark Stevens last night was beyond unacceptable and has no place in our league," the league said in a statement. "As the review of this matter continues, Mr. Stevens will not be permitted to attend NBA games."


https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26912173/nba-bans-warriors-investor-shoving-lowry
"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
terapined
terapined
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
  • Threads: 76
  • Posts: 5247
Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdjJimmy2Times
June 6th, 2019 at 1:55:37 PM permalink
The awesome national anthem from last nights game

"Everybody's bragging and drinking that wine, I can tell the Queen of Diamonds by the way she shines, Come to Daddy on an inside straight, I got no chance of losing this time" -Grateful Dead- "Loser"
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 2445
Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
June 6th, 2019 at 1:56:18 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Kyle Lowry crashes into fans on the sideline
Nearby, Warriors investor Mark Stevens, that Kyle Lowry never touched, gave the NBA player a shove
WTF
You never ever put your hands on somebody that never touched you and give them a shove
How would Mark Stevens like it if Kyle Lowry came into his office and gave him a shove. Kyle would be arrested.


"A team representative must be held to the highest possible standard, and the conduct of Golden State Warriors investor Mark Stevens last night was beyond unacceptable and has no place in our league," the league said in a statement. "As the review of this matter continues, Mr. Stevens will not be permitted to attend NBA games."


https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26912173/nba-bans-warriors-investor-shoving-lowry



Obviously, the laws don't apply to the rich. But it arguably assault (I guess so, anyway. lawyers?). And, against someone who relies on his body for a lucrative livelihood. If you stiff arm some guy in the shoulder as hard as you can, you could certainly injure them.

It would be fun watching the criminal justice system going into pretzel mode to not punish a rich guy who assaulted someone on national TV.

Guessing that this doughy middle-aged tough guy would never in 400,000,000 years put his hands on Kyle Lowry in another situation. Taking a cheap shot, knowing he is protected and lives a life without consequences.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
  • Threads: 71
  • Posts: 463
June 6th, 2019 at 3:05:10 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

The awesome national anthem from last nights game


It is a hard song to sing well, so the "safe" choice of not singing it was probably the right one.
Anyway, I liked it.
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
  • Threads: 97
  • Posts: 13926
Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
June 6th, 2019 at 5:56:49 PM permalink
They fined Stevens the shover $500,000 and banned him from NBA games for 1 year.

Now I'm wondering if the owners will meet and demand he sell his position in the team. That was pretty steep.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 1745
Thanks for this post from:
ksdjdj
June 6th, 2019 at 6:50:30 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

They fined Stevens the shover $500,000 and banned him from NBA games for 1 year.

Now I'm wondering if the owners will meet and demand he sell his position in the team. That was pretty steep.




If he bought his share more than 5 or 6 years ago , I’d bet he’s seen a nice profit. Can’t imagine any NBA teams value has increased as much as that one. Especially given the pending move to San Fran.
ZenKinG
ZenKinG
Joined: May 3, 2016
  • Threads: 56
  • Posts: 1443
Thanks for this post from:
RS
June 7th, 2019 at 2:24:42 AM permalink
I cant help but laugh at this shoving incident. If it was a black fan pushing a black player the player wouldnt have gotten that mad or cried wolf to the NBA to ban him and neither would all the black analysts on TV as well as former black NBA players be up in arms about this incident. The black community loves to pull the race card every chance they get, well guess what it's time to throw it right back at them because what we have here is nothing but hypocrisy.

Lets face it, black people are very insecure evem to thos day and still live with the chip on their shoulder since the slavery days of being seen as inferior to white people, especially white rich priveleged people. So when something as simple as this little shove happens their insecurity really shows. Kyle Lowry probably felt so 'disrespected' after being shoved by a white rich priveleged man and that's the real issue here. It really has nothing to do with him being 'shoved'.

Damn im so ahead of everything. I have a gift of just reading everyone and everything. God help the poker community if i ever play poker in my life. I can basically disect what a person is thinking at any given time based on how they respond, act, body language, past information, as well as numerous other variables that also allow me to filter out reverse tells.
Any private business open to the PUBLIC (ie. droned out casinos) cannot have a criminal trespass enforced against an individual without GOOD CAUSE (Disruptive or Disorderly conduct). You will never go to prison for being thrown out of a casino for legal advantage play and then returning because it's simply unconstitutional 'as applied' to the individual. 'As applied' constitutional issues must FIRST be raised in DISTRICT COURT (trial court) to have it thrown out. You CANNOT raise it on APPEAL This is the best kept secret in the world of casinos not just in Vegas but everywhere in the country. Thank me later.

  • Jump to: