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gordonm888
gordonm888
Joined: Feb 18, 2015
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May 12th, 2019 at 3:29:28 PM permalink
The game has changed a lot over 20 years. More pitchers on the rosters, more relief pitchers in a game, etc. and more pitchers capable of throwing 95+ mph. Also, far more strikeouts and probably fewer opportunities when the bases are loaded. I am not surprised that the frequency of Grand Slams has gone down recently. I suspect this effect is real, based on changes in the game.

Many years ago, Bill James showed the importance of park effects on home run production. It is very large. Denver's park, with the low air pressure, has always been a home run park. Citi (Mets) is a terrible park for home runs.

Also, there has been some data that air humidity affects home run rate due to reduced air drag when moisture levels are higher.
So many better men, a few of them friends, were dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things lived on, and so did I.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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May 12th, 2019 at 4:16:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here, again, is my source. I have no reason to believe they are not counting more than one Grand Slam per day.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/higs5.shtml is well known to have errors in their data. (at least what I read a few years ago)

Sally contacted me a few years ago to help her gather the GS info. (she has currently lost interest in this endeavor)
we started in 2017 as she had completed the season but had errors in her Excel sheet. we found them all.

your reference (baseball-almanac.com) shows a 'total' of 132 grand slams were hit in MLB in 2017 season.
that is not correct.
the actual number is 133 (even papa john's had the total correct back then) and there were 3 times 2 GS were hit in the same game. that makes 130 games with at least 1 GS hit for season 2017.
what # do you use? 133 or 130?
Most will use 133 but the william hill wager has to do with the 130 value.

I had started on season 2011 (the Yankees only team to hit 3 GS in one game) and found baseball-almanac.com results were way different from mine. I have yet to get back to that season.

I doubt baseball-almanac.com cares about at least 1 GS per game. They just add them all up and post the data.

another hit today, LA Dodgers (4 in 3 days)
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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June 21st, 2019 at 12:48:01 PM permalink
grand slam rate so far this year, very close to a record at 16.44 (1 every 16.44 games on average)
after the 87th day of this season.

https://sports.yahoo.com/juiced-ball-mlb-explains-why-baseballs-are-leaving-the-yard-at-a-historic-rate-171641510.html

"It took a while, but Major League Baseball finally admitted there’s something weird going on with the balls this season. Commissioner Rob Manfred said Thursday that the baseballs have contributed to this year’s historic home-run rate."
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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August 16th, 2019 at 9:59:13 AM permalink
update: grand slam rate so far this year, very close to a record (could be a record) at 15.55 (at least 1 every 15.55 games on average)
after the 140th day of this season.

on William Hill mobile betting 'yes... there will be at least 1 GS hit today' for every day with at least 15 games scheduled, one would be UP 21 units (+21 units) line may not be the same as previous day

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/higs5.shtml
shows the most GS hit in a mlb season was 176 in 2000 (at least 1 every 13.8 games on average, I have not looked at the data for that year).
The data from that page looks to be filled with errors as in 2018 there were a total of 134 GS, site says 141 were hit and in 2017, 133 GS were hit, site says 132 were hit.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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August 16th, 2019 at 10:13:53 AM permalink
I did not know the design of the balls changed. That article states a "pill" at the center of the ball reduces drag. I hope doc, our resident physics expert, stumbles on this thread and comments.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
Joined: Aug 18, 2014
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August 16th, 2019 at 10:41:08 AM permalink
The physics of the new baseball have been a hot subject. If everyone is being honest, the design was not deliberately changed, but the balls are made in enormous batches. For some reason, there are inconsistencies from one batch to the next, but they are consistent within each batch.

One thing I just learned today is that all the balls are rubbed with a particular mud, from a secret location in New Jersey discovered by the Phillie's 3rd base coach in 1938.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball_rubbing_mud

These things are what make baseball the best sport, without question.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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August 16th, 2019 at 10:58:33 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I did not know the design of the balls changed.

no one, imo, is being honest about what exactly changed
but MLB pitches know the balls are different the last few years. (2017 world series comes to mind)
looks like this year will set a record for most home runs hit in the MLB season. was just set in 2017 I think without looking.

William Hill seems to be real slow in changing their 'yes' lines to something that would favor them, imo.
I do not know about others that offer that bet.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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August 31st, 2019 at 9:24:09 AM permalink
season update

counting today, there are 29 days remaining scheduled for the 2019 mlb season
and the grand slam average is at 1 in 16.1 games played
that is so far the lowest (not counting the 2000 season) at the 155th day of the season.

most I have talked with that make mlb prop bets say the grand slam 'yes bet' is not that popular
and a common reason given is if one rainout happens the bet is 'off' and returned even IF a slam has already been hit. I have not verified this, but seems correct to me.

many prop bets will have no action if all the games scheduled are not completed that day.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
Joined: Aug 12, 2018
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August 31st, 2019 at 12:42:51 PM permalink
I think that I'd take the bet that it would happen. There are more home runs today then there used to be hence more grand slams.

Today, unlike the past, every team gets a chance at some point to use a DH so you're more likely to have someone in the lineup who can knock it out of the park. Before the advent of inter league play this advantage was only given to American League teams.

In addition, since then the ball has been loaded, doctored, adjusted....whatever you want to call it. MLB discovered that more home runs made for bigger draws and they did something. For example, in 1977 Graig Nettles won the AL home run title with 32 homers. Since 1998 the high mark is usually in the mid to high 40's, if not higher.

There's no supporting math but I'd say I'd bet on it happening.
The best things in life are not free.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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September 30th, 2019 at 2:50:33 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

season update

counting today, there are 29 days remaining scheduled for the 2019 mlb season
and the grand slam average is at 1 in 16.1 games played
that is so far the lowest (not counting the 2000 season) at the 155th day of the season.

regular season ends update
154 total grand slams hit (matches https://www.mlb.com/sponsorship/papaslam)

a RECORD for a non-steroid year (record is 162 hit in 2000 season. My verified count - not 176)
my final data can be found here: https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/mlb

as well as a record number of home runs hit
The balls changed in 2017 and MLB spilled the beans on that finally this year.

GS rate: 1 in 16.19 games
185 days with at least 1 game played, 100 days with at least 1 Slam hit
4 games had 2 GS hit

at -130 for 'yes' wager on at least 1 GS hit today
gives the player an edge of at least 5.5%

MLB Home runs just ain't what they used to be.
Everyone can now hit one out.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

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