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Wizard
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May 8th, 2019 at 12:26:12 PM permalink
Forgive me if we discussed this before. I know I analyzed this recently, but can't recall why or where.

I hear that William Hill offers a prop bet on a daily basis during baseball season on whether there will be at least one Grand Slam that day. In a day with 15 games, I hear the odds are close to -110 each way.

According to the Baseball Almanac, there have been 2461 grand slams in the 20 seasons from 1998 to 2017. Why start in 1998? That is the year two expansion teams were added, for a total of 30 teams. I do not know if their data includes post season games, but I'm assuming not.

Each team plays 162 games per season. So, that is a total of 30*162/2 = 2,430 regular season games per year, or 48,600 over 20 years. You divide by two because every game has two teams.

So, the average grand slams per game is 0.05064. Using the Poisson distribution, the probability of zero is exp(-0.05064) = 0.950623. So, the probability any given game will have one is 4.9377%.

The following table shows the probability of at least one grand slam over 1 to 15 games and the fair line on at least one grand slam.

Games in a Day Prob. Grand Slam Fair line Yes
1 4.94% 1925
2 9.63% 938
3 14.09% 610
4 18.34% 445
5 22.37% 347
6 26.20% 282
7 29.85% 235
8 33.31% 200
9 36.60% 173
10 39.73% 152
11 42.71% 134
12 45.54% 120
13 48.23% 107
14 50.78% -103
15 53.21% -114


Comments?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
michael99000
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May 8th, 2019 at 12:35:27 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Forgive me if we discussed this before. I know I analyzed this recently, but can't recall why or where.

I hear that William Hill offers a prop bet on a daily basis during baseball season on whether there will be at least one Grand Slam that day. In a day with 15 games, I hear the odds are close to -110 each way.

According to the Baseball Almanac, there have been 2461 grand slams in the 20 seasons from 1998 to 2017. Why start in 1998? That is the year two expansion teams were added, for a total of 30 teams. I do not know if their data includes post season games, but I'm assuming not.

Each team plays 162 games per season. So, that is a total of 30*162/2 = 2,430 regular season games per year, or 48,600 over 20 years. You divide by two because every game has two teams.

So, the average grand slams per game is 0.05064. Using the Poisson distribution, the probability of zero is exp(-0.05064) = 0.950623. So, the probability any given game will have one is 4.9377%.

The following table shows the probability of at least one grand slam over 1 to 15 games and the fair line on at least one grand slam.

Games in a Day Prob. Grand Slam Fair line Yes
1 4.94% 1925
2 9.63% 938
3 14.09% 610
4 18.34% 445
5 22.37% 347
6 26.20% 282
7 29.85% 235
8 33.31% 200
9 36.60% 173
10 39.73% 152
11 42.71% 134
12 45.54% 120
13 48.23% 107
14 50.78% -103
15 53.21% -114


Comments?



Is the line always the same on every day where there’s x number of games ?

In other words, if there’s 15 games today and the line in Yes is -110, is the line -110 every time theres 15 games ?

What happens if a game is rained out or shortened by rain? Are all bets on the grand slam wager voided ?

I’m thinking of a few ideas -

1. Look at the ERA’s of the 30 starting pitchers for that day. Is there a large number of bad pitchers going? You can even look at home runs allowed/inning instead of ERA for a better idea of how likely homeruns are to be hit that day.

2. Look at the home ballparks that day. Are Colorado , Philadelphia , Baltimore , Cincinnati etc playing at home? Those parks are more likely to yield homeruns.
Keeneone
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May 8th, 2019 at 12:40:19 PM permalink
Good stuff, and thanks for posting. I do remember reading about this somewhere on the site. I am also pretty sure mustangsally mentioned something about this topic in the past as well.

There where 3 Grand Slams yesterday, 2 in the same game.
Harper:
https://www.mlb.com/gameday/phillies-vs-cardinals/2019/05/07/566584#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=566584
O'Hearn and Merrifield:
https://www.mlb.com/gameday/royals-vs-astros/2019/05/07/565620#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=box,game=565620
TomG
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May 8th, 2019 at 1:24:24 PM permalink
-First thought was that 1998 was right in the middle of some of the greatest offensive output in history. Although we want as much data as possible, conditions in sports are constantly changing.
-Next thought is that while scoring was down recently, homeruns are now way up, so perhaps the chances of a grand slam are still the same, possibly even higher than ever
-Wind blowing out in Wrigley could be factor, as could some bad starting pitchers for the day. A fame in Colorado would have an effect to the yes, and one San Diego probably a slight effect on the no.
-With only 2461 four-run homeruns out of more than 50,000, getting the bases loaded is probably a bigger factor. If I was going to handicap this, after weather, I would look at the walk rates of the starting pitchers for the day. High lean toward yes, low lean toward no. And if I could beat (or maybe only come close) to the historical fair line, it would be a good bet. Probably be more likely to find something good on Mondays and Thursdays when there are fewer games
7craps
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May 8th, 2019 at 1:31:51 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

There where 3 Grand Slams yesterday, 2 in the same game.

The average I see the last 3 years is 1 in 18.5. This year so far stands at 1 in 18.48 (4 games played so far today)
So players, during the last playoffs, IIRC, mentioned the baseball seemed different. No wonder home runs are up.

the last few days saw an explosion of GS.
4-May cubs,atl			
5-May sea, hou, sd, cubs, bos
6-May bal, tbay
7-May kc, phil, kc
8-May TODAY so far tex
12 in 4 days AFTER 6 days in a row with 0.

The william hill odds are always different, depending on how many games are scheduled that day. I have never seen a line for 10 or less games.
here is a sample of this year so far
yes|no
+105|-125
-115|-105
+120|-140
+120|-140
+130|-150
+110|-130
-120|-100
+105|-125
+115|-135
+115|-135
even|-120
even|-120
-115|-105
+115|-135
+110|-130
-105|-115
even|-120
-105|-115
-110|-110
+110|-130
a couple years ago, the odds for yes averaged +135. no longer
as more GS are hit each year.
some data is found here: https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/mlb
Last edited by: 7craps on May 8, 2019
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Wizard
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May 8th, 2019 at 2:10:10 PM permalink
Quote: Keeneone

Good stuff, and thanks for posting. I do remember reading about this somewhere on the site. I am also pretty sure mustangsally mentioned something about this topic in the past as well.



Yes, thanks, that is who wrote to me about this. As I recall, I argued that in general neither side was good, but am not sure she agreed.

Here is the number of Grand Slams in the 20 years I'm looking at:

Year Grand Slams
1998 120
1999 139
2000 176
2001 134
2002 125
2003 123
2004 133
2005 132
2006 134
2007 136
2008 124
2009 137
2010 124
2011 98
2012 101
2013 95
2014 83
2015 108
2016 107
2017 132


2000 was the a big aberration with 176.

Does anyone know how many there were last season?

As to the pitchers and stadiums, I tend to think the market adjusts for those things. Over 15 games, it probably averages out fairly well.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
7craps
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May 8th, 2019 at 2:31:49 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Does anyone know how many there were last season?

Here is what I collected (seasons checked each 3 times by 3 different people using mlb.com and espn.com)
2017: 133 total grand slams hit in 130 games with at least 1 GS (3 games had 2 hit)
2018: 134 total grand slams hit in 132 games with at least 1 GS (2 games had 2 hit)
2019: 31 total grand slams hit in 29 games with at least 1 GS (2 games had 2 hit)

when I do watch MLB games, it is surprising to me how many times the bases are loaded over 15 games played.
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Ayecarumba
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May 8th, 2019 at 2:38:53 PM permalink
The thread title "Gland Slam prop bet" made me think this was a new WoV Spring Fling challenge.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
TomG
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May 8th, 2019 at 2:48:53 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

As to the pitchers and stadiums, I tend to think the market adjusts for those things. Over 15 games, it probably averages out fairly well.



Possibly. But because they are so few grand slams, any day-to-day differences almost certainly follow expected runs scored and nothing else. Which for a small and not widely available market might be distorted. Be interesting to see how closely the grand slam odds correlate with the grand salami odds
7craps
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May 8th, 2019 at 3:19:59 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I hear that William Hill offers a prop bet on a daily basis during baseball season on whether there will be at least one Grand Slam that day.

That is true. I wagered on that bet last Sat and won
Quote: Wizard

So, the average grand slams per game is 0.05064.

I think to be more accurate, some games have more than 1 grand slam hit. you need to subtract them from the total hit and then finish the math.

That stumped me a few years ago.
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Wizard
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May 8th, 2019 at 3:23:34 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

2018: 134 total grand slams hit in 132 games with at least 1 GS (2 games had 2 hit)



Thanks! Adding that 21st year into my data changes the Grand Slam probability per game to 4.9581%, or 1 in 21.83. Here is an updated betting table.

Games in a Day Prob Grand Slam Fair line Yes
1 4.96% 1917
2 9.67% 934
3 14.15% 607
4 18.41% 443
5 22.45% 345
6 26.30% 280
7 29.95% 234
8 33.42% 199
9 36.72% 172
10 39.86% 151
11 42.84% 133
12 45.68% 119
13 48.37% 107
14 50.93% -104
15 53.36% -114
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Gabes22
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May 8th, 2019 at 4:00:38 PM permalink
Is it factored in games with multiple grand slams. For instance there could be 120 grand slams but only 110 games with a grand slam
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7craps
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May 8th, 2019 at 4:04:16 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here is an updated betting table.

there are days when 16 and 17 games are scheduled. 3 times so far this year. The line every time was -110 | -110
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
ThatDonGuy
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May 8th, 2019 at 4:14:28 PM permalink
Do the odds change in September, when pitchers brought up from the minors are more likely to be pitching?
Ayecarumba
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May 8th, 2019 at 4:17:48 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

there are days when 16 and 17 games are scheduled. 3 times so far this year. The line every time was -110 | -110



I don't think the number of games is as important as the stadiums. As was stated upthread, some stadiums are home run friendly, while others are tough. Checking the schedule for a preponderance of games in HR friendly stadiums may yield an advantage. Also, is there a difference between AL and NL grand slam annual totals (even though inter-league play may have flattened that out)?
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Keeneone
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May 8th, 2019 at 4:21:01 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Do the odds change in September, when pitchers brought up from the minors are more likely to be pitching?


I was kind of wondering about this sort of thing as well. For example, is there a best month for a GS, or a best day of the week for GS. April is cold, so are there less. August is hot, so are there more. etc etc...
7craps
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May 8th, 2019 at 4:48:04 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Do the odds change in September, when pitchers brought up from the minors are more likely to be pitching?

in 2017 (yes | no)
140 | -160

in 2018 (yes | no)
-110 | -110

most lines each day (not all and between 13 to 15 games) were as listed above.
they really have dropped the price on yes in 2019. (April had some days at 130 for yes)
most now between -110 and 115 depending on how many games that day are scheduled.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
beachbumbabs
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May 8th, 2019 at 6:13:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

The thread title "Gland Slam prop bet" made me think this was a new WoV Spring Fling challenge.



I thought it was a steroids reference...lol.
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Wizard
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May 8th, 2019 at 6:35:10 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

I think to be more accurate, some games have more than 1 grand slam hit. you need to subtract them from the total hit and then finish the math.



Quote: Wizard -- original post

So, the average grand slams per game is 0.05064. Using the Poisson distribution, the probability of zero is exp(-0.05064) = 0.950623. So, the probability any given game will have one is 4.9377%.

"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
unJon
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May 8th, 2019 at 8:05:28 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Doesn’t the Poisson assume that it’s as likely to hit the second GS in a game as the first? I think that’s the assumption 7craps is challenging.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Rigondeaux
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May 8th, 2019 at 8:15:23 PM permalink
Agree with Tom that the total runs scored for the day could be as or more important than the number of games. This would automatically factor in things like who is pitching, which stadiums are hosting games, weather, etc.

One interesting element is that the game might be TOO home run driven now. Or, at least, the HR increase could be less helpful than you think. Someone has to be on base for there to be a GS. 3 someones, in fact.

The popular strategy for a hitter now is more or less to go for either a walk, a strikeout or a HR. Are there enough walks to make up for all the lost base hits and (i would assume) errors?
Wizard
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May 8th, 2019 at 9:44:02 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Doesn’t the Poisson assume that it’s as likely to hit the second GS in a game as the first? I think that’s the assumption 7craps is challenging.



No. I interpreted 7crap's accusation is that I didn't consider that two Grand Slams could occur in the same game at all.
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kuma
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May 10th, 2019 at 8:14:33 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

The popular strategy for a hitter now is more or less to go for either a walk, a strikeout or a HR. Are there enough walks to make up for all the lost base hits and (i would assume) errors?



This is why I like the suggestion made by TomG to look at pitcher walk rates. I’d guess reviewing OBP of hitters against a high walk rate pitcher might be of more value since that may be less likely to be factored into the lines than weather, or stadium, or even just pitching matchups. Interesting to think about.
7craps
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May 10th, 2019 at 8:15:54 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Thanks! Adding that 21st year into my data changes the Grand Slam probability per game to 4.9581%, or 1 in 21.83.

for today (Fri 5/10) there are 15 games scheduled.
yes(there will be at least 1 GS hit) = +110 at william hill

the probability of 0 grand slams hit =(21/22) rounded up
for the day (21/22)^15= 0.497678877 *-100 = ev = -49.76788774

at least 1 slam hit today = 0.502321123 * 110 = ev = 55.25532349
sum (ev) = 5.487435754
yes edge = ev/100 = 0.054874358 (looks positive)

does this look correct or is it filled with errors?
imo, it seems too simple to be correct

added at 8:53am
william hill only has 14 games scheduled and mlb.com shows 15 games
the white sox at toronto seems to have an unknown issue
game added at william hill
15 games scheduled +110 (yes) -130 (no)
Last edited by: 7craps on May 10, 2019
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7craps
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May 11th, 2019 at 7:52:17 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

for today (Fri 5/10) there are 15 games scheduled.
yes(there will be at least 1 GS hit) = +110 at william hill

and there was 1 grand slam,
new york mets, Rosario (3, 1st inning off López 3 on, 1 Out)
so yes won

today (Sat 5/11) there are 16 games scheduled
william hill has the same line as yesterday
+110 for yes
ev=10.23800686 (for $100 wager)
edge = 0.102380069 (again positive)

as there seems to be no math errors, but possibly a procedure error,
this thread can become a distant memory
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Wizard
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May 11th, 2019 at 8:31:06 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

today (Sat 5/11) there are 16 games scheduled
william hill has the same line as yesterday
+110 for yes
ev=10.23800686 (for $100 wager)
edge = 0.102380069 (again positive)



Thanks for reminding me, I have been meaning to check a specific line.



In case anyone cares, here are the over/unders for today (May 11)

Game Over/Under
Pitts/StL 7.5
Mil/ChC 7.5
Mia/NYM 7
Atl/Ariz 9
SD/Colo 10.5
Cin/SF 7
Wash/LAD 7
Sea/Bos 11
Det/Minn (game 1) 8.5
ChWS/Tor 8.5
Angels*/Bal 10
Clev/Oak 8
NYY/TB 8
Tex/Hou 8.5
Phil/KC 9
Det/Minn (game 2) 9.5
Total 136.5
Average 8.53


Here is my table again, this time up to 16 games.

Games in a Day Prob Grand Slam Fair line Yes
1 4.96% 1917
2 9.67% 934
3 14.15% 607
4 18.41% 443
5 22.45% 345
6 26.30% 280
7 29.95% 234
8 33.42% 199
9 36.72% 172
10 39.86% 151
11 42.84% 133
12 45.68% 119
13 48.37% 107
14 50.93% -104
15 53.36% -114
16 55.68% -126


The headers on the William Hill web site are wrong. They should say "yes" and "no," not "away" and "home." From the no hitter lines, it's obvious they mean the NO is -130 and the YES +110. Here is my analysis of both side:

Side Probability Line European EV
Yes 0.556758 110 2.100000 0.169191
No 0.443242 -130 1.769231 -0.215802


If I'm right, then the yes has a 16.9% advantage.
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unJon
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May 11th, 2019 at 10:51:46 AM permalink
I’m not sure the mode this thread is predicated on is correct. I wonder what if instead of just looking at grand slams per year, you instead had data by day (so multiple grand slams in a game or day were not counted) and then ran a logistical regression where 1 equals “yes” grand slam and 0 is “no” grand slam for a particular day and the independent variable was the number of games in that day.
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7craps
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May 11th, 2019 at 12:00:47 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I wonder what if instead of just looking at grand slams per year, you instead had data by day (so multiple grand slams in a game or day were not counted)

I have that 'day by day' since 2017 season (still messy to view) and was thinking about writing some code to make the process faster and cleaner to get more years.

The problem I see, is by day, there are many days the yes|no bet is not offered. looks to me most day with at least 12 games scheduled have a bet to make, but less than 12, no bet available. Many slams happen on those day less than 12 scheduled.

here is what I have to date:
2017; total Slams: 133, games with at least 1 hit 130, games played: 2430, 
days with at least 1 slam:90, out of total days:179
2018; total Slams: 134, games with at least 1 hit 132, games played: 2432,
days with at least 1 slam:97, out of total days:184
2019; total Slams: 32, games with at least 1 hit 30, games played: 571,
days with at least 1 slam:20, out of total days:46


the line this morning moved from +110|-130 to even|-120 before the 1st game started. (yes|no on william hill mobile)
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Wizard
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May 12th, 2019 at 12:17:51 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

I’m not sure the mode this thread is predicated on is correct. I wonder what if instead of just looking at grand slams per year, you instead had data by day (so multiple grand slams in a game or day were not counted) and then ran a logistical regression where 1 equals “yes” grand slam and 0 is “no” grand slam for a particular day and the independent variable was the number of games in that day.



Here, again, is my source. I have no reason to believe they are not counting more than one Grand Slam per day. Since every game should be an independent event, I think my method is sound. The big question should be how far back to go. Whether or not to include the big year of 2000 is just one issue.
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Wizard
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May 12th, 2019 at 12:34:36 PM permalink
This table illustrations the issue, comparing whether you start in 2000 or 2011.

years 19 8
Teams 30 30
Games per team 162 162
Starting yaer 2,000 2,011
Ending year 2,018 2,018
Total seasons 19 8
Total games 46,170 19,440
Total grand slams 2,336 858
Expected grand slams per game 5.06% 4.41%
Probability 1+ slams 4.93% 4.32%
Prob GS in 16 games 55.49% 50.65%
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gordonm888
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May 12th, 2019 at 3:29:28 PM permalink
The game has changed a lot over 20 years. More pitchers on the rosters, more relief pitchers in a game, etc. and more pitchers capable of throwing 95+ mph. Also, far more strikeouts and probably fewer opportunities when the bases are loaded. I am not surprised that the frequency of Grand Slams has gone down recently. I suspect this effect is real, based on changes in the game.

Many years ago, Bill James showed the importance of park effects on home run production. It is very large. Denver's park, with the low air pressure, has always been a home run park. Citi (Mets) is a terrible park for home runs.

Also, there has been some data that air humidity affects home run rate due to reduced air drag when moisture levels are higher.
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7craps
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May 12th, 2019 at 4:16:42 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here, again, is my source. I have no reason to believe they are not counting more than one Grand Slam per day.

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/higs5.shtml is well known to have errors in their data. (at least what I read a few years ago)

Sally contacted me a few years ago to help her gather the GS info. (she has currently lost interest in this endeavor)
we started in 2017 as she had completed the season but had errors in her Excel sheet. we found them all.

your reference (baseball-almanac.com) shows a 'total' of 132 grand slams were hit in MLB in 2017 season.
that is not correct.
the actual number is 133 (even papa john's had the total correct back then) and there were 3 times 2 GS were hit in the same game. that makes 130 games with at least 1 GS hit for season 2017.
what # do you use? 133 or 130?
Most will use 133 but the william hill wager has to do with the 130 value.

I had started on season 2011 (the Yankees only team to hit 3 GS in one game) and found baseball-almanac.com results were way different from mine. I have yet to get back to that season.

I doubt baseball-almanac.com cares about at least 1 GS per game. They just add them all up and post the data.

another hit today, LA Dodgers (4 in 3 days)
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7craps
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June 21st, 2019 at 12:48:01 PM permalink
grand slam rate so far this year, very close to a record at 16.44 (1 every 16.44 games on average)
after the 87th day of this season.

https://sports.yahoo.com/juiced-ball-mlb-explains-why-baseballs-are-leaving-the-yard-at-a-historic-rate-171641510.html

"It took a while, but Major League Baseball finally admitted there’s something weird going on with the balls this season. Commissioner Rob Manfred said Thursday that the baseballs have contributed to this year’s historic home-run rate."
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7craps
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August 16th, 2019 at 9:59:13 AM permalink
update: grand slam rate so far this year, very close to a record (could be a record) at 15.55 (at least 1 every 15.55 games on average)
after the 140th day of this season.

on William Hill mobile betting 'yes... there will be at least 1 GS hit today' for every day with at least 15 games scheduled, one would be UP 21 units (+21 units) line may not be the same as previous day

https://www.baseball-almanac.com/hitting/higs5.shtml
shows the most GS hit in a mlb season was 176 in 2000 (at least 1 every 13.8 games on average, I have not looked at the data for that year).
The data from that page looks to be filled with errors as in 2018 there were a total of 134 GS, site says 141 were hit and in 2017, 133 GS were hit, site says 132 were hit.
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Wizard
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August 16th, 2019 at 10:13:53 AM permalink
I did not know the design of the balls changed. That article states a "pill" at the center of the ball reduces drag. I hope doc, our resident physics expert, stumbles on this thread and comments.
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Rigondeaux
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August 16th, 2019 at 10:41:08 AM permalink
The physics of the new baseball have been a hot subject. If everyone is being honest, the design was not deliberately changed, but the balls are made in enormous batches. For some reason, there are inconsistencies from one batch to the next, but they are consistent within each batch.

One thing I just learned today is that all the balls are rubbed with a particular mud, from a secret location in New Jersey discovered by the Phillie's 3rd base coach in 1938.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball_rubbing_mud

These things are what make baseball the best sport, without question.
7craps
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August 16th, 2019 at 10:58:33 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I did not know the design of the balls changed.

no one, imo, is being honest about what exactly changed
but MLB pitches know the balls are different the last few years. (2017 world series comes to mind)
looks like this year will set a record for most home runs hit in the MLB season. was just set in 2017 I think without looking.

William Hill seems to be real slow in changing their 'yes' lines to something that would favor them, imo.
I do not know about others that offer that bet.
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7craps
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August 31st, 2019 at 9:24:09 AM permalink
season update

counting today, there are 29 days remaining scheduled for the 2019 mlb season
and the grand slam average is at 1 in 16.1 games played
that is so far the lowest (not counting the 2000 season) at the 155th day of the season.

most I have talked with that make mlb prop bets say the grand slam 'yes bet' is not that popular
and a common reason given is if one rainout happens the bet is 'off' and returned even IF a slam has already been hit. I have not verified this, but seems correct to me.

many prop bets will have no action if all the games scheduled are not completed that day.
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Lovecomps
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August 31st, 2019 at 12:42:51 PM permalink
I think that I'd take the bet that it would happen. There are more home runs today then there used to be hence more grand slams.

Today, unlike the past, every team gets a chance at some point to use a DH so you're more likely to have someone in the lineup who can knock it out of the park. Before the advent of inter league play this advantage was only given to American League teams.

In addition, since then the ball has been loaded, doctored, adjusted....whatever you want to call it. MLB discovered that more home runs made for bigger draws and they did something. For example, in 1977 Graig Nettles won the AL home run title with 32 homers. Since 1998 the high mark is usually in the mid to high 40's, if not higher.

There's no supporting math but I'd say I'd bet on it happening.
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7craps
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September 30th, 2019 at 2:50:33 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

season update

counting today, there are 29 days remaining scheduled for the 2019 mlb season
and the grand slam average is at 1 in 16.1 games played
that is so far the lowest (not counting the 2000 season) at the 155th day of the season.

regular season ends update
154 total grand slams hit (matches https://www.mlb.com/sponsorship/papaslam)

a RECORD for a non-steroid year (record is 162 hit in 2000 season. My verified count - not 176)
my final data can be found here: https://sites.google.com/view/krapstuff/mlb

as well as a record number of home runs hit
The balls changed in 2017 and MLB spilled the beans on that finally this year.

GS rate: 1 in 16.19 games
185 days with at least 1 game played, 100 days with at least 1 Slam hit
4 games had 2 GS hit

at -130 for 'yes' wager on at least 1 GS hit today
gives the player an edge of at least 5.5%

MLB Home runs just ain't what they used to be.
Everyone can now hit one out.
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DRich
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September 30th, 2019 at 3:24:38 PM permalink
Quote: Lovecomps

I think that I'd take the bet that it would happen. There are more home runs today then there used to be hence more grand slams.

Today, unlike the past, every team gets a chance at some point to use a DH so you're more likely to have someone in the lineup who can knock it out of the park. Before the advent of inter league play this advantage was only given to American League teams.

In addition, since then the ball has been loaded, doctored, adjusted....whatever you want to call it. MLB discovered that more home runs made for bigger draws and they did something. For example, in 1977 Graig Nettles won the AL home run title with 32 homers. Since 1998 the high mark is usually in the mid to high 40's, if not higher.

There's no supporting math but I'd say I'd bet on it happening.



That is all true but I think there are also more strikeouts today so it is less likely to have bases loaded.
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GWAE
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September 30th, 2019 at 4:58:00 PM permalink
If there are 15 games what is the normal line. Will you get -130 on a full day?
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7craps
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September 30th, 2019 at 7:34:06 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

If there are 15 games what is the normal line. Will you get -130 on a full day?

for the 2019 season, yes.
(at william hill)
the 1st 2 months I watched it was +105 for 15 games 'yes'
then went to -110 for 2 months (as the SLAMS came in near record pace) and
was -120 and -130 the last 2 months.

I see about 60% of days were scheduled 15 or more games
many might not like the low action
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7craps
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unJon
October 3rd, 2019 at 9:07:02 AM permalink
3 year data

total slams hit
year: games played/slams hit: average games for slam
2017: 2430/133: 18.27
2018: 2432/134: 18.15
2019: 2429/154: 15.77
3 years of NEW baseballs: 17.318 average

days with 'at least 1 slam'
year: games played/games with 'at least 1 slam': average games for slam
2017: 2430/130: 18.69
2018: 2432/132: 18.42
2019: 2429/150: 16.19
3 years of NEW baseballs: 17.7 average
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unJon
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October 3rd, 2019 at 10:53:25 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

3 year data

total slams hit
year: games played/slams hit: average games for slam
2017: 2430/133: 18.27
2018: 2432/134: 18.15
2019: 2429/154: 15.77
3 years of NEW baseballs: 17.318 average

days with 'at least 1 slam'
year: games played/games with 'at least 1 slam': average games for slam
2017: 2430/130: 18.69
2018: 2432/132: 18.42
2019: 2429/150: 16.19
3 years of NEW baseballs: 17.7 average



So if we use 17.318 games per slam. In a day with 15 slams, we should get at least one slam 59.023% of the time. Meaning true odds of -144. Interesting. Thanks for compiling 7craps.
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GWAE
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October 3rd, 2019 at 12:35:40 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: 7craps

3 year data

total slams hit
year: games played/slams hit: average games for slam
2017: 2430/133: 18.27
2018: 2432/134: 18.15
2019: 2429/154: 15.77
3 years of NEW baseballs: 17.318 average

days with 'at least 1 slam'
year: games played/games with 'at least 1 slam': average games for slam
2017: 2430/130: 18.69
2018: 2432/132: 18.42
2019: 2429/150: 16.19
3 years of NEW baseballs: 17.7 average



So if we use 17.318 games per slam. In a day with 15 slams, we should get at least one slam 59.023% of the time. Meaning true odds of -144. Interesting. Thanks for compiling 7craps.



You mean 15 games?

What if there are 8 games like on a Thursday?
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7craps
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October 3rd, 2019 at 3:39:12 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE

You mean 15 games?

What if there are 8 games like on a Thursday?

never saw a line for less than 12 games scheduled

in April-May, I saw lines for 17,16,15,14,13 and 12 games (+120)

towards the end of the season (June on), just 13 (-110),14, 15,16 or 17 games scheduled there was posted lines

and when ONE game was rained out, the bet becomes void and all money is returned, even when a slam has already been hit.
Ouch
need to see how often that hit hard the wrong way
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michael99000
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October 3rd, 2019 at 3:42:03 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

never saw a line for less than 12 games scheduled

in April-May, I saw lines for 17,16,15,14,13 and 12 games (+120)

towards the end of the season (June on), just 13 (-110),14, 15,16 or 17 games scheduled there was posted lines

and when ONE game was rained out, the bet becomes void and all money is returned, even when a slam has already been hit.
Ouch
need to see how often that hit hard the wrong way



What do they do if a game is played, but is called after say 7 innings due to rain?
DRich
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October 3rd, 2019 at 3:42:48 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

never saw a line for less than 12 games scheduled

in April-May, I saw lines for 17,16,15,14,13 and 12 games (+120)

towards the end of the season (June on), just 13 (-110),14, 15,16 or 17 games scheduled there was posted lines

and when ONE game was rained out, the bet becomes void and all money is returned, even when a slam has already been hit.
Ouch
need to see how often that hit hard the wrong way



Wow,I am shocked that there were days with 17 games. I guess that would have to be two doubleheaders and every team playing.
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7craps
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October 3rd, 2019 at 3:48:11 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000

What do they do if a game is played, but is called after say 7 innings due to rain?

what I have seen,
the game has to finish the same day scheduled (or without a break if game goes until after midnite) or the bet gets returned,
no action.
that actually happened a couple of times even when they just postpone the game until the next day.
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