My Texas Tech 125:1 Future
If they win, I turn $25 into $3125. I could hedge, not sure what I’m going to do. I have a couple of days to think about it.
Quote: VegasriderBack in November I bet on four teams to win the NCAA men’s championship, all my teams made it into the tournament at over 100:1. Houston, Iowa, Arizona St and Texas Tech.
If they win, I turn $25 into $3125. I could hedge, not sure what I’m going to do. I have a couple of days to think about it.
What a nice problem to have!
Quote: VegasriderBack in November I bet on four teams to win the NCAA men’s championship, all my teams made it into the tournament at over 100:1. Houston, Iowa, Arizona St and Texas Tech.
If they win, I turn $25 into $3125. I could hedge, not sure what I’m going to do. I have a couple of days to think about it.
I say you gotta hedge now. Guarantee yourself $1500 minimum instead of possibly zero.
ZCore13
Quote: VegasriderBack in November I bet on four teams to win the NCAA men’s championship, all my teams made it into the tournament at over 100:1. Houston, Iowa, Arizona St and Texas Tech.
If they win, I turn $25 into $3125. I could hedge, not sure what I’m going to do. I have a couple of days to think about it.
If you are going to hedge, I can offer you -116*** ML for Virginia (max bet $1740 to $1500).
***: This price is guaranteed for about 4 hours (until about 435 am Pacific time)
PM me if you wish to bet on Virginia in the game below:
04/08 9:20 PM
811 Texas Tech
812 Virginia
update:
offer is now open until 8 am Pacific time (since I shouldn't expect you to be awake at 430 in the morning)
Quote: Zcore13I say you gotta hedge now. Guarantee yourself $1500 minimum instead of possibly zero.
ZCore13
Degenerates don't hedge LOL
j/k
Something like that.
Virginia reminds me of Duke, playing in so many close games and barely squeaking by, and with luck. Like Duke, their luck ran out. I really like TT. Virginia was even down double digits to Gardner Webb a 16 seed in their 1st game. They should have lost to Oregon, Purdue and Auburn. It's a miracle they made it. TT, more impressive wins, especially against Gonzaga. That was their biggest Mountain to climb.
Virginia reminds me of Duke, playing in so many close games and barely squeaking by, and with luck. Like Duke, their luck ran out. I really like TT. Virginia was even down double digits to Gardner Webb a 16 seed in their 1st game. They should have lost to Oregon, Purdue and Auburn. It's a miracle they made it. TT, more impressive wins, especially against Gonzaga. That was their biggest Mountain to climb.
Quote: VegasriderIts only a $25 bet, so I could easily let it ride. I might put down $500 so I can get what I spent on futures the past 2 years.
Virginia reminds me of Duke, playing in so many close games and barely squeaking by, and with luck. Like Duke, their luck ran out. I really like TT. Virginia was even down double digits to Gardner Webb a 16 seed in their 1st game. They should have lost to Oregon, Purdue and Auburn. It's a miracle they made it. TT, more impressive wins, especially against Gonzaga. That was their biggest Mountain to climb.
Imo that's kinda like its house money type of thinking. I am a big hedge fan even though it goes against the commandments
if yuo are referring to Wizard's 10, I think he is ok with it in this situation, where you can guarantee a win. In fact I think it should be called Arbitrage instead of Hedging when you guarantee a win?Quote: GWAEImo that's kinda like its house money type of thinking. I am a big hedge fan even though it goes against the commandments
FYI, no one sent me a PM by 8 am (Pac time) so the current offer is -118 ML (offer valid about 5 hours, 630 pm Pac time)
update (about 145 pm)
Is treasure Island still offering -110 money line? (see link below)
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/odds/las-vegas/money/2/
note: sometimes the website above is slow to update the current odds on offer.
note 2: obviously if -110 is still available, then you should take it with them.
Update 2 (about 220 pm)
According to the vegas insider website, the odds are now -115 at treasure island, so it is still better than what I am offering (if true).
Update 3 (about 240 pm)
vegas insider has treasure island at -120 ML now
Quote: odiousgambitif yuo are referring to Wizard's 10, I think he is ok with it in this situation, where you can guarantee a win. In fact I think it should be called Arbitrage instead of Hedging when you guarantee a win?
Isnt a hedge always a win?
What are the type he doesnt like? Parlay hedges?
"HAD LOTS OF FUN!!!",said no one ever who followed all the commandments.Quote: GWAEImo that's kinda like its house money type of thinking. I am a big hedge fan even though it goes against the commandments
Quote: AxelWolf"HAD LOTS OF FUN!!!",said no one ever who followed all the commandments.
Lol yes. 1500 is definitely so much better than -25, and not much worse than 3k.
Quote: GWAEIsnt a hedge always a win?
What are the type he doesnt like? Parlay hedges?
According to the site below, a hedge*** bet can also be used for lose/lose situations and still be a "good bet" (see 2nd paragraph, under the heading "Should I hedge my bet?").
https://www.onlinebetting.com/should-i-hedge-my-bet/
*** (Partial Quote from WoO 10 Commandments): "Hedge bets usually carry a high house edge..."
If this is the main reason you generally shouldn't hedge, then this tells me that if you think the house edge for the hedge is low or negative, then a hedge bet could be considered "good bet".
Arbitrage is another example, of when it could be a "good bet" to bet on all outcomes to guarantee a profit (to be a true arb, you have to bet on all outcomes simultaneously).
Below is a "real life" example of when it is a "bad bet" to hedge.
Recently I bet on the "No jackpot winner" prop for power ball (in the 750 m draw) and got odds +195 ($2.95).
I had the "no winner" at 60% and the "yes winner" at 40% chance^^^.
^^^: not the exact figures I used, these are just for illustrating my point.
The closing line was -170 for the "yes winner", so i could have locked in a profit.
Was it a "good bet" to hedge by betting on the "yes winner"?
The answer is no (at least from an EV point of view).
Reason: the yes winner had an estimated EV of about -36...% at odds of -170.
FYI: of course the powerball jackpot was hit so I lost my bet, but from a long-term pov it was "correct" not to hedge my bet.
Update: You are most likely correct about the Wiz and parlay hedge bets (since those bets generally have a "high house edge")
he doesn't like hedging that just reduces varianceQuote: GWAEIsnt a hedge always a win?
What are the type he doesnt like? Parlay hedges?
example: doey-don't in Craps
that's why i say arbitrage is the right word for when it's right
well, he also makes an exception for "life changing amounts" or somesuch
Quote: odiousgambit...that's why i say arbitrage is the right word for when it's right...
One definition for Arbitrage (noun): "the simultaneous buying and selling of securities, currency, or commodities in different markets or in derivative forms in order to take advantage of differing prices for the same asset."
Emphasis on simultaneous, that is why "true arbitrage" is very hard for people to do in reality.
Note: I personally used*** to use the word arbitrage all the time, when I meant "locking in a profit" (because i didn't know the true meaning at the time)
***: I sometimes still use the word "arbitrage", when i mean "lock in a profit" because it sounds better to me.
Quote: GWAEIsnt a hedge always a win?
I would consider it always a loss. You are paying the juice twice to make the bet.
Why are you making a bet at long odds unless you think it is a good bet? If it was a good bet at long odds it should be a great bet now. Unless it is life changing money why would you want off of a great bet?
Quote: DRichI would consider it always a loss. You are paying the juice twice to make the bet.
Why are you making a bet at long odds unless you think it is a good bet? If it was a good bet at long odds it should be a great bet now. Unless it is life changing money why would you want off of a great bet?
Sometimes it's tough to look at it from the outside. If I picked 4 teams every year and thought I had a good bet then I would expect to be in this situation often, therefore I would not hedge. If this was a 1 time thing where I just kind of guessed then I would quickly hedge.
However there is always that possibility where you had a good bet when you made it but the team isnt ad good now (even though they are there) where you might want to hedge.
Wreck'em Tech!
Guns Up!
Quote: GWAE
However there is always that possibility where you had a good bet when you made it but the team isnt ad good now (even though they are there) where you might want to hedge.
I agree, circumstances can change. Good luck whatever you decide to do.
Quote: DRichI agree, circumstances can change. Good luck whatever you decide to do.
If goodluck to me, it's not my bet.
Quote: odiousgambitif yuo are referring to Wizard's 10, I think he is ok with it in this situation, where you can guarantee a win. In fact I think it should be called Arbitrage instead of Hedging when you guarantee a win?
No. As DRich said, you are just paying more juice. You're either 1) taking an initially -ev bet and making it more -ev. Or 2, taking a +ev bet and giving your edge back to the bookies.
Once in a while you might find a hedge bet that is neutral, or even +ev, though.
I think Wiz would concur that if this is a life altering amount of money, hedging can make sense from a utilitarian standpoint. If either result allows you to quit a job you don't like, for example, ev shmeevee.
It's really all about utility in the end, regardless. Do what you like.
However, I think OP took a smart approach in betting smaller amounts he could comfortably ride out, so I'd lean towards sticking with that. A mistake many make is to bet too much initially, then they feel forced to hedge and give back any value they found.
Quote: RigondeauxNo. As DRich said, you are just paying more juice. You're either 1) taking an initially -ev bet and making it more -ev. Or 2, taking a +ev bet and giving your edge back to the bookies.
That is usually the case. This one might be different. For example: If the true odds at the time of the 125-1 bet were 2% and $25 was the correct Kelly size bet, than with a ~50% chance and a 125-1 payout, risking $1500 (what is being risked by not hedging) would be over Kelly. This implies that hedging, even for negative expected value would be the correct way to maximize growth. Anyone have any information on this?
(obviously it's doubtful there was really a 100% edge with this bet, but because most everyone seems to agree that fractional Kelly is best for sports betting, the numbers don't have to be that extreme)
If I had the ticket I would bet Virginia at -1. Could still lose $25 if they win by exactly one, but that seems to be the best number available -- and the number available always makes a big difference in whether to hedge and for how much
I am offering Virginia @ + 5.5 (spread) and odds -270 (max bet 2700 to win 1000)
Offer valid until 6 am Pac time (game day)
PM me if you want to take up this offer
Quote: TomG
If I had the ticket I would bet Virginia at -1. Could still lose $25 if they win by exactly one, but that seems to be the best number available -- and the number available always makes a big difference in whether to hedge and for how much
there's slight value at Virginia -1. ML not so much. I agree with TomG here.
***: in other words this is a 100% market.
ML:
Texas tech: +160
Virginia: -160
Spread:
Texas Tech: +3.5 @ +100
Virginia: -3.5 @ +100
Quote: VegasriderNegative, I wanted to clear 3 dimes. The refs were skewed to Virginia's side and combined with poor execution. by Tech at the end of the game. 15 second left and up by 3, let Virginia have any 2 but under no circumstance let them put up a 3. And Culver launching up a 30 footer with 5 sec left another bonehead play. Drive to the basket or give up the ball who has had a better night shooting. When it's not your night, it's not your night. Give it up to somebody else.
I have not been impressed with the refs in a lot of games, but I do not allow that become an excuse when you fail to cover a player shooting threes with ease and when you wait so deep in the shot clock to look for shots that it hinders the opportunities that will become available. Culver having less than spectacular nights almost cost them Saturday night; it was a bigger problem last night. It is also not easy to catch the ball and turn around in one second to get a shot off...perhaps getting the ball to a guy facing the basket, even way outside, would have led to a better final shot of regulation.
Did the refs miss stuff? Sure. Leaving Guy open so often was a bigger problem...Virginia figured out how to get him open and an adjustment was not made quickly enough.
