FleaStiff
FleaStiff 
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
  • Threads: 264
  • Posts: 14235
April 2nd, 2019 at 9:17:57 PM permalink
Quote: Vegasrider

There will be a 4 part documentary that Showtime is airing ......

Don't let cyberspace confuse you. Showtime is located in Hollywood. If it ain't in Hollywood, CA, its in Hollywood, Cyberspace.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 150
  • Posts: 2595
April 3rd, 2019 at 8:38:58 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

In my opinion, the way to beat sports is not trying to out-handicap the free market.




you own data from the other site (see image) suggests otherwise
your data shows that by blindly betting the away dog the bettor loses only 1.38% - the house edge on a typical spread bet is 4.55%
by just doing this he outperforms the public by more than 3%
nfl games are I believe the most heavily bet games in any sport and many would say the most difficult lines to gain an edge on

so, it is obvious that the public erroneously estimates the strength of the home field advantage

to believe what you're saying you would then have to say this:

"okay, the public makes errors on the home/away thing but they don't make any (or very, very few) errors on anything else"

I don't think that's a logical assumption

my way of saying it would be that the public doesn't often make errors in setting the line/odds but neither is it right to say that it is very rare

they sometimes make errors - less so on NFL games than in smaller markets

although your statement of finding a better line is the way to go is certainly true, the nature of a sports bettor's edge is that he is willing to go deeper into the details of the sport and the game than the average bettor. also, he will not bet the popular teams because they're popular or his own favorite team because it's his team

"but I don't care too much for money..........money can't buy me love".............. the Beatles

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