Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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February 14th, 2019 at 2:50:28 AM permalink
It could never really work. IDKS about Wall Street, but I suspect the shows you mentioned are pretty useless too.

If someone's picks actually beat the market, there is a .001% chance they would give them out on TV. If they did, then you'd have 4 seconds to get your bet in. Then, after a while, someone would reverse engineer their methodology and it would be over.

Best you can hope for is like a good GWAE guest, who goes over their general approach and broad concepts. Nobody is going to say "a dealer named Sarah who works from 2 to 10 at the Venetian is exposing her cards."
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
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AxelWolf
February 14th, 2019 at 3:34:24 AM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

It could never really work. IDKS about Wall Street, but I suspect the shows you mentioned are pretty useless too.

If someone's picks actually beat the market, there is a .001% chance they would give them out on TV. If they did, then you'd have 4 seconds to get your bet in. Then, after a while, someone would reverse engineer their methodology and it would be over.

Best you can hope for is like a good GWAE guest, who goes over their general approach and broad concepts. Nobody is going to say "a dealer named Sarah who works from 2 to 10 at the Venetian is exposing her cards."



That's the idea. General discussion and picks. Some picks you take, other you learn the methodology, others are just entertainment.

The Wall Street shows had guests who regularly gave out their picks. Usually they were already in the stock, but the point was they got both a paycheck out of the show as well as regular exposure. Some people like to be TV stars. Remember Jimmy the Greek? He made a franchise out of making and explaining picks, and he had to do it by pretending he was talking about something else.

It would have to cover multiple angles. Nobody is going to tune in to just hear a few picks, "Bovada has a weak line on the Bills....." But they will tune in to hear an injury report. Hear how weather might affect each team. What officiating crew is working the game and their tendencies. And so on.
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beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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February 14th, 2019 at 5:32:19 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

If a show was done right I think there would be a decent market. But that means the show cannot just be a vehicle for selling picks. It would as I said need to be like "Thestreet.com" when it was on, or "Bulls and Bears" when it was on. Take apart why the touts are making this or that pick. It would need to be a cross between a general sports show and a sports betting show.

Hard part is when would a good show air? Saturday morning is logical in football season, but that makes you lose the first weekend of March Madness. Special day could be done for that. But the show might drag in summer with just baseball to bet, unless it took in the international soccer leagues, but they have fewer viewers.

If only I worked at ESPN.



Anybody can make a podcast.
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Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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February 14th, 2019 at 8:33:46 AM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

That's the idea. General discussion and picks. Some picks you take, other you learn the methodology, others are just entertainment.

The Wall Street shows had guests who regularly gave out their picks. Usually they were already in the stock, but the point was they got both a paycheck out of the show as well as regular exposure. Some people like to be TV stars. Remember Jimmy the Greek? He made a franchise out of making and explaining picks, and he had to do it by pretending he was talking about something else.

It would have to cover multiple angles. Nobody is going to tune in to just hear a few picks, "Bovada has a weak line on the Bills....." But they will tune in to hear an injury report. Hear how weather might affect each team. What officiating crew is working the game and their tendencies. And so on.



Again, nobody is going to give you legitimate "picks" on such a large platform. Some people give decent picks on forums or twitter.

Even then, the lines are going to move often enough that it's not worth while. From what I can tell, Stuckey is an honest guy. When you see his picks, about 1/4 will no longer be available.

Injury and weather reports aren't very useful in a vacuum.

I'd guess the same goes for a lot of those stocks. I think 99.9% of people offering stock picks are throwing darts. Maybe, occasionally, someone has a real insight into why the market is wrong. I did once. After 9/11 I was pretty sure that a couple of buildings burning down wouldn't destroy the U.S. economy. But I just picked a stock almost at random.

If these people do somehow know, then I think a lot of the time the stock price has already gone up by the time they tell you about it.

Anyway, I'm not saying such a show couldn't be popular, or entertaining among people who don't know what they are doing. Just that it could never really be very useful.
AZDuffman
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February 14th, 2019 at 5:14:23 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Anybody can make a podcast.



Which is so great about the modern world.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AZDuffman
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February 14th, 2019 at 5:24:44 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

Again, nobody is going to give you legitimate "picks" on such a large platform. Some people give decent picks on forums or twitter.

Even then, the lines are going to move often enough that it's not worth while. From what I can tell, Stuckey is an honest guy. When you see his picks, about 1/4 will no longer be available.

Injury and weather reports aren't very useful in a vacuum.

I'd guess the same goes for a lot of those stocks. I think 99.9% of people offering stock picks are throwing darts. Maybe, occasionally, someone has a real insight into why the market is wrong. I did once. After 9/11 I was pretty sure that a couple of buildings burning down wouldn't destroy the U.S. economy. But I just picked a stock almost at random.

If these people do somehow know, then I think a lot of the time the stock price has already gone up by the time they tell you about it.

Anyway, I'm not saying such a show couldn't be popular, or entertaining among people who don't know what they are doing. Just that it could never really be very useful.



You are not seeing where I am coming from. I am not talking about three guys just making picks. I am talking discussion about the weeks games at a high level, but not driven like the regular pregame shows we have today. I am talking about from a bettors POV.

You are pretty useless as a bettor if you just tune in a show and pick what they say to pick. But like a good investor will listen to business shows to gain investment insights so will a good bettor to get information. Not going to find out if the QB is on coke or has a knocked up GF, but plenty of ideas.

By your logic this site is the same kind of useless. But you show up. Right?
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RS
RS
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RogerKintHunterhill
February 14th, 2019 at 5:38:04 PM permalink
Quote: Rigondeaux

...Nobody is going to say "a dealer named Sarah who works from 2 to 10 at the Venetian is exposing her cards."


Idk about that....the way some characters are posting on these online forums, I wouldn't put it past 'em.

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Rigondeaux
Rigondeaux
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February 14th, 2019 at 6:01:12 PM permalink
I come here mostly for social and entertainment reasons. The only 2 plays I can think of that I got from this site are parlay cards and UX vulturing. Those are a bit different. They are just things where the casinos don't give TOO much of a crap if some people win, because most are getting brutally raped. The real gains have come from befriending people who taught me stuff nobody shares in public.

Profitably investing in sports, to my knowledge, relies on one of 2 things. Either knowing how to find off market numbers. IDK how a show could help that. Or handicapping. This means, you make your own number and then try to find numbers that you think are off. This is very difficult and takes a lot of time. You simply aren't going to achieve it by watching a TV show.

The most a TV show or Pod can really do is give you an idea of what to aim for and which tools to build.

I can't cap NFL or whatever, but I used to do OK in boxing. I'd watch at least the 3 most recent fights from each fighter. I had a template with something like 20 categories. I'd rate and make notes on each of those. I did share my picks on SBR, mostly in hopes of building relationships and it worked. I met my guru. A guy who went from working in a video store to being on pace to retire at 45. If you are trying to handicap without that level of time and effort, you are wasting your time.

Even handicappers are mostly line shoppers. Nobody can magically know that the patriots will win the SB. You are usually just trying to find small advantages. Widely available lines are hard to beat, no matter who you are. This is why the term "picks" is somewhat misleading. What you are really doing is trying to find a number that compares favorably to yours.

I won't go on and on about Wall Street, as I don't know much about it. But I just don't think there are really many "intelligent" stock pickers. I think you see a lot of survivorship and people pulling stuff out of their butts. Also, it is a +sum game where sprots is a -sum game. If I invested in stocks, I'd only be interested in advice about things like distributing risk and getting tax breaks. I don't think anyone who can beat the king of markets would tell me ish.

If you'd like info on the subject, I highly recommend the book Sharper, by my friend, Poker Joe.

https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Guide-Modern-Sports-Betting-ebook/dp/B01K5SDAKS

You can also follow a few people on twitter. Like GroovinMahoovin. His account is dormant but read his old tweets and check out who he follows. PokerJoe is on twitter too. He gives out picks sometimes but the numbers are usually not widely available because that's how it is.
djatc
djatc
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February 14th, 2019 at 8:31:25 PM permalink
+1 for PokerJoe I read his book and found it to be very knowledgable and interesting.

All handicappers line shop
Line shopping is probably the only chance a non-handicapper has in winning. I dunno anything about handicapping except trying to get one of those parking permits so I don't have to walk so damn far, but looking for the best line is something anyone can do with a computer, and a cell phone.
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TomG
TomG
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February 16th, 2019 at 11:45:35 AM permalink
Probably never going to find much good stuff in this area. Sports talk is 90% crap as it is -- but through sheer volume of content, even with just 10% of the content being good, there will always be something worth listening to. The guys who are good know not to stick around on one topic too much. Devoting an entire show to one small area of the sports world is just asking for repetition at best, likely devolving into meaningless drivel very quickly. Sports talk radio in Las Vegas has a lot of good segments on sports betting. But the key is that it is only a couple of 15 minutes riffs or interviews over a three hour show.

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