Props Bets for Superbowl

Just wanted to know what Superbowl props you are betting on and why you think they were a "good" bet?

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Below are some of the "good value" first and last score props that are available at the moment, in my opinion

First score a TD -166.66 ($1.60)

https://tab.ubet.com/sports/american-football/nfl/super-bowl-53/la-rams-v-ne-patriots-4-2

Last score a TD -190

https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_1

for 5dimes, click on "football" > "NFL Props" on the left hand side of the web page.

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FYI: The tab.ubet website puts up $1.60 for nearly all of their "NFL- first score a touchdown" markets, so I will probably wait til closer to game day before betting on that market.


Also, I would love to see what "first score" prop odds the tab.ubet site puts up for the AFC v NFC game (if they decide to), as you would have to assume that the TD chance will be higher*** than most games.

higher***: for the last 11 years i think the first score was a TD for 10 of them (the sample size is TOO small for accurate estimates, though).



Thanks for reading, and I hope everyone has a great Superbowl weekend.


,

Here are my two props bets for the Super Bowl:


1) FIRST SCORING METHOD (Touchdown): I had 2.74% of my bank roll @ $1.60 for an estimated RTP of 109.5%***(see link below).

109.5%***: I got about 112% for my initial estimated RTP , but I don't know if it is going to be wet or not on the day (forecast is about 40% chance of showers/rain at the moment). So that is why i reduced the estimated RTP to 109.5%.

https://tab.ubet.com/sports/american-football/nfl/super-bowl-53/la-rams-v-ne-patriots-4-2


2) No 2 point conversion made or attempted: I had 3.1075% of my bank roll on this prop @ -220 for an estimated RTP of 113%^^^(see link below)

113%^^^: I got about 116.3% for my initial estimated RTP, but in my opinion there is a bit more chance of a team needing to go for a two-point conversion in post-season , eg the Super Bowl. So that is why I reduced it to 113%


https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_1

for 5dimes, click on "football" > "NFL Props" on the left hand side of the web page > then scroll down until you find prop no "130".


Good luck, and feel free to post any bets or props that you had in the Super Bowl.

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Update: (315 am pacific time)

I also think that NE winning by exactly 7 pts is good value at the site below:

https://www.bet365.com.au/#/AC/B12/C20426855/D19/E7005319/F19/G0/H0/I1


The bet I had was under "Alternative Line (Incl. Tie)" and I had about 0.24% of my bank roll @ $19 on "Tie - 7", for an estimated RTP of 111.8%

Lastly, I think the "Both teams tie for highest scoring qtr" is a good value bet.
The bet I had was about 0.615% of my bank roll @ +610, for an estimated RTP of 109.2%

https://www.5dimes.eu/livelines/livelines.aspx#al_1

for 5dimes, click on "football" > "NFL Props" on the left hand side of the web page > then scroll down until you find prop no "1839 -Both teams tie for highest scoring qtr".

Thanks for your interesting posts. When you say your 'bankoll', is that your total sports betting bankroll, or your bankroll for this specific game? Do you do this for a living or is it a side venture?

I bet both of those as well so GG

I'm interested in a bet where there will be a safety and a two point conversion, so both have to happen for me to win.
I'm willing to bet $50 they both happen. Looking for someone to book the bet. Offer me your best line. I will accept one.

I took:

YES there will be a score in all four quarters , +130

And

Goff 1st pass attempt to be Incomplete/Intercepted +160

Quote: michael99000

I took:

YES there will be a score in all four quarters , +130

And

Goff 1st pass attempt to be Incomplete/Intercepted +160

The second one sounds good - if the Rams get the ball first, I think Goff goes for the long bomb on the first play.

I don’t care who wins. Frankly, it wasn’t until Tuesday 1/22 that I knew who was playing.

I made 6 prop bets with a WoV member. If he wants to divulge his name and the bet amounts, it’s fine by me.

My 6 props are:
YES Safety
YES Overtime
YES Successful 2 point conversion
YES Scoreless quarter
YES Interception ran for a TD
YES Missed extra point

"If I were to tell you that a growing group of killjoys wants to ban NFL cheerleading, would you guess that this group is on the political left or right?"

Which way would you bet?

Quote: SOOPOO

Thanks for your interesting posts. When you say your 'bankoll', is that your total sports betting bankroll, or your bankroll for this specific game? Do you do this for a living or is it a side venture?

It is the total sports betting bank roll (but I don't bet on too many different sports).

This is a "side-venture", because I make more money on other things, also I am only relatively new at betting on "sports props" as a "professional/semi-professional".

Quote: billryan

I'm interested in a bet where there will be a safety and a two point conversion, so both have to happen for me to win.
I'm willing to bet $50 they both happen. Looking for someone to book the bet. Offer me your best line. I will accept one.

Will offer 26/1, for a $50 bet if you are interested (and if it is not illegal to do a "social bet")

Both have to be correct for you to win, "any other result"and I win, right?
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Update (about 145 pm Pacific Time)

Bet needs to be confirmed by both of us, 15 minutes before kick-off, to stand.

Update by OP:

At the 5dimes website:
The -220 is gone for the "130 No 2 point conversion made or attempted" prop, and it is now -230 ( -230 is still good value, in my opinion).

You can still get +610 for prop "1839 Both teams tie for highest scoring qtr".

At bet365 website:
The "Tie (NE Patriots) -7.0" bet is no longer "good value" (it was $19 when I originally posted the bets that I had, but it is now only $17)

At tab.ubet website:
The first scoring method- touchdown is still $1.60 (but they hardly ever change the odds for that prop, no matter which teams are playing and/or what the Total O/U is)

Quote: ksdjdj

Will offer 26/1, for a $50 bet if you are interested (and if it is not illegal to do a "social bet")

Both have to be correct for you to win, "any other result"and I win, right?
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Update (about 145 pm Pacific Time)

Bet needs to be confirmed by both of us, 15 minutes before kick-off, to stand.

I confirm my part. I will pay by paypal if I lose.
Please confirm your end.

Quote: ksdjdj

Will offer 26/1, for a $50 bet if you are interested (and if it is not illegal to do a "social bet")

Both have to be correct for you to win, "any other result"and I win, right?

Quote: billryan

I confirm my part. I will pay by paypal if I lose.
Please confirm your end.

You are betting that there will be both a safety AND a 2 point conversion (2 points after touchdown) in tonight's Super Bowl.

You(billryan) will win if the above statement ends up being true, I (ksdjdj) will win if "anything else" occurs.

I will confirm also, if you agree with the extra terms below:

settlement: within 15 business days

You will pay me $69 Australian*** or $50 US, if I win.

I will pay you 1300 US dollars if you win (or close equivalent in the currency you choose).

Australian***: I live in Australia, and that is what the current exchange rate is, at the moment.

Again, the bet is confirmed just wanted to make sure we are on the same page with currency exchange and settlement terms.


Note: Paypal will most likely be the method of payment I will use, if I lose.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

YES Scoreless quarter

That’s one! 😁

One more and I’m making a profit.

Nice, I had 0,0 in Super Bowl squares.

I’m already in the black.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

That’s one! 😁

One more and I’m making a profit.

That's great to hear,

Fairly "boring" game so far, I think my local sports book had "no touchdown in the first quarter" at about $4.5 or $5.0 and "no in the second quarter" at about $8.50 or $9.50, (I wasn't interested in those markets, so can't remember the odds exactly, sorry).

I need to win on at least two out of the three remaining OP bets to make a profit now, and I think the rough chance of having a winning day on those bets now, is about 1/6. : (

Quote: ksdjdj

That's great to hear,

Fairly "boring" game so far, I think my local sports book had "no touchdown in the first quarter" at about $4.5 or $5.0 and "no in the second quarter" at about $8.50 or $9.50, (I wasn't interested in those markets, so can't remember the odds exactly, sorry).

I need to win on at least two out of the three remaining OP bets to make a profit now, and I think the rough chance of having a winning day on those bets, is about 1/6. : (

This isn't your fault at all. This SB has been a Dustbowl so far. A huge Dustbowl, in fact so much of a Dustbowl I saw a Tumbleweed passing by and the Tumbleweed said Dryly,"I'm more exciting than this snoozefest Dustbowl The Rams VS The Patriots! " And the sad thing, it was right! :/

Quote: DJTeddyBear

My 6 props are:
YES Safety
YES Overtime
YES Successful 2 point conversion
YES Scoreless quarter ✔️
YES Interception ran for a TD
YES Missed extra point

The way this game is going, my OT bet is looking good. 😁

My OP bets resulted in a loss of about $1,090 (2.1825% of my bank roll),

Also, "Patriots win by exactly 7" prop, missed it by , \ 0 / < that much
(it seemed to miss by about a quarter the width of the field, lol)

Also, too bad I didn't bet on the under, as the total I used was 50 to 52 points in working out the prop bets. I think the O/U offered was between between 55.5 and 56.5 at most local sports books (within 24 hours of game-time).

Quote: ksdjdj

My OP bets resulted in a loss of about $1,090 (2.1825% of my bank roll),

Also, "Patriots win by exactly 7" prop, missed it by , \ 0 / that much
(it seemed to miss by about a quarter the width of the field, lol)

Also, too bad I didn't bet on the under, as the total I used was 50 to 52 points in working out the prop bets. I think O/U offered was between between 55.5 and 56.5 at most local sports books (within 24 hours of game-time).

Don't blame yourself. This was a crappy game. I was incredibly shocked by how bad it was and I I entertained thoughts of a rematch next Sunday between The Patriots and The Rams to rectify how bad this game was, sort of a Recount or something.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I made 6 prop bets with a WoV member.

Go ahead.

Has anyone else heard any good news around on such an outlandish result.

Apparently someone had a bet of $250 at 400/1 that Rams would score a total of three points. Now that's someone happy somewhere!
various places have picked up on this story --
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-one-person-turned-a-250-super-bowl-bet-into-100000-2019-02-04
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/super-bowl-gambler-reportedly-turns-250-into-100k-after-making-wild-bet-on-total-points-rams-would-score/

Quote: Wizard

Go ahead.

Ok. I made my side bets with Mike.

I risked $50 on each of these bets, with Mike giving what’s shown if they occurred.

YES Safety $337.50
YES Overtime $337.50
YES Successful 2 point conversion $115
YES Scoreless quarter $195
YES Interception ran for a TD $450
YES Missed extra point $130

So I owe Mike $250 for the 5 that lost. He owes me $195 for the scoreless first quarter. Net, I owe $55. It coulda been worse.

Note that I was barely even watching the game. I was at the Sands PA playing poker at the time. Today, I had to look it up to see if that one TD was an interception return. Sigh, nope.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Ok. I made my side bets with Mike.

I risked $50 on each of these bets, with Mike giving what’s shown if they occurred.

YES Safety $337.50
YES Overtime $337.50
YES Successful 2 point conversion $115
YES Scoreless quarter $195
YES Interception ran for a TD $450
YES Missed extra point $130

So I owe Mike $250 for the 5 that lost. He owes me $195 for the scoreless first quarter. Net, I owe $55. It coulda been worse.

Note that I was barely even watching the game. I was at the Sands PA playing poker at the time. Today, I had to look it up to see if that one TD was an interception return. Sigh, nope.

Your 10,000th post is imminent.

Make it a good one.