NFL Week 7 - Predictions

Here's last weeks results:

TheCesspit :

Baltimore +2.5 -110, 2 Units (MGM), Loss -2.00 Units
Dallas +1.5 -110, 2 Units (MGM), Loss -2.00 Units
Oakland Raiders +6.5 -110, 1 Unit (MGM) -1.00 Unit

Record 5-13, Average bet - 1.67 Units, Total 83.49

EnvyBonus :

KC +4.5 for 3 (MGM), Win +2.73
Washington +3 for 8 (Hilton), PUSH
Det/Giants under 44.5 for 4 (MGM), Loss, -4 Units

Record 4-6, Average bet - 4.00 Units, Total 82.90

Ericayne :

Tampa Bay (+4.5) Caesar's, Loss -1.00 Unit
St. Louis (+9) Leroy's, Win +0.91 Units
Denver (+3) " ", Loss, -1.00 Unit
Jacksonville (+3), Loss -1.00 Unit

Record 9-14, Average bet - 1.13 Unit - Total 93.21

Ayecarumba :

Indy -3, -115, 2.3 units (MGM), PUSH
Oakland +6.5, -110, 1 unit (MGM), Loss, -1 Unit

Record 8-7, Average bet - 8.84 Units, Total 104.85

TheWizard :

KC +4.5 -110, Win +0.91
TB +4.5 -110, Loss -1.00 Unit
Clev +13 -110, Loss -1.00 Unit
Dal +1 +105, Loss -1.00 Unit

Record 9-12, Average bet - 1.00 Units, Total 96.08


Overall


I'm seriously thinking that fading me is a good idea, there's a 5% chance of going 5-13 (or worse) on 18 coin flips...

The Vegas bookmakers aren't just good, they are really really good... They nailed the Colts/Redskins, and certainly ruined a bunch of teaser/parlays.

I suspect they'd prefer to get one side of the line or the other rather than have to push back a whole bunch of bets.

On the initial lines, I am all over this one. The Giants are composed, winning and not screwing the pooch. The Cowboys are beginning to enter desperation mode and failing to play clean football. So, the Giants are away from home? I'll take the points and then some here. This should be a home dog game, or a Pick. Course, I'm 5-13....

New York Giants, +3, +105 (Mirage) 4 units.

EDIT : 21 October. Adding another 2 units to this bet, nothing else grabs me this week. Maybe stupid to risk a double bet on this game, but it seems far out of whack to how each team is playing.

Quote: thecesspit

I suspect they'd prefer to get one side of the line or the other rather than have to push back a whole bunch of bets.

On the initial lines, I am all over this one. The Giants are composed, winning and not screwing the pooch. The Cowboys are beginning to enter desperation mode and failing to play clean football. So, the Giants are away from home? I'll take the points and then some here. This should be a home dog game, or a Pick. Course, I'm 5-13....

New York Giants, +3, +105 (Mirage) 2 units.

I'm gonna bet my 401k on Dallas. :D

Quote: thecesspit

I suspect they'd prefer to get one side of the line or the other rather than have to push back a whole bunch of bets.

Maybe, but if that were the case, I would think they would always use .5 point lines. I'll cling to my teaser crusher theory for now....

The Steelers/Dolphins should be fun. Especially since the Steelers D is being encouraged to play "Powder Puff" style.

Pittsburgh -3, Even, 2 units, (Caesars)


Jackson was a beast last week. I think he's definitely on the juice...
St. Louis +2.5, +120, 1 unit (Stations)

Favre really seems tired this season. However, I think he will get up for a game against the Pack.
Minnesota +2.5, +120, 1 units (Hilton)

I'm writing the line for the underdogs as "+points", "+units". Would you rather I write it as "-units"? Some of the lines are "-points, +units" (e.g. San Diego at Wynn)

Well, that didn't go like I hoped. I'm sad for Brett Favre, but perhaps it is more disappointment in myself for being a fan of a man who doesn't know how to move on gracefully. It is getting to be like Al Davis running the Raiders into the ground. Hopefully, Brett won't bust out an overhead projector to show slides of his, "deal".

Quote: Ayecarumba

I'm writing the line for the underdogs as "+points", "+units". Would you rather I write it as "-units"? Some of the lines are "-points, +units" (e.g. San Diego at Wynn)

Perfectly fine for these lines, +points and the lines however it is + or -.

When I see Redskins getting 2.5 points at the Lions, I wonder which teams the line setters are seeing. Normally this means they see something I don't, because I would have this line flipped around. I hate betting against my team, but:

Washington +2.5, -110, Wynn, 1 Unit.

Also, Pittsburgh have the sort of strong defence that should be the decider versus the Saints... who are also without two more of their threats.

Steelers +2, -110, LV Hilton, 2 Units

I could see Minnesota actually improving is they stop playing the walking wounded St Brett. However, it's not going to be this game when it happens... New England to win by a TD:

Patriots -6, -110, LV Hilton, 2 Units

Oakland destroyed Denver last week, but I think the Raiders/Seahawks line takes far too much of it into account.

Seahawks +2.5, -110, LV Hilton, 1 Unit.

Okay, so I lost that Lions bet, but I love it when the Big Guy scores... though he should celebrate only when in the end-zone... even if swatted Moss off like a fly, he'd have looked stupid if he'd drop the ball at the 5.