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sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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April 5th, 2018 at 8:19:37 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


What I'm trying to say is that if multiple people picked the same perfect bracket and won, maybe Warren would split the prize. I doubt he ever said what the sharing rule is one this, but if I worked for him, I would want to get all the publicity of the perfect bracket to myself and not share it. My suggestion is what you should do if you don't want to risk sharing a win, for whatever reason you don't want to. I think most people are selfish, including me, and wouldn't want to share in the glory of a perfect bracket.



Thanks.

So is it the same expected cost of $529, then, if Buffett had just eight employees and they all picked a unique bracket given your strategy?
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
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April 5th, 2018 at 8:39:21 PM permalink
Quote:

The winners of steps 20 and 21 will play, the winner winning the tournament.



I'm confused妖oes this mean steps 22 and 23 should be deleted?


Quote:

The probability of the nine seed beating an eight seed is 47.8%



At one point容ither the late '90s or early 2000s葉he ninth seeds actually had a better record against eighth seeds.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard 
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April 5th, 2018 at 8:44:51 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Thanks.

So is it the same expected cost of $529, then, if Buffett had just eight employees and they all picked a unique bracket given your strategy?



My point with the $529 figure is that his offer gets quoted all over television in early March, when the reward compared to the probability of winning is minimal.

To address your question, let's say Warren had eight employees and they all make it to the Final Four with my strategy. If they really wanted to optimize their chances at money and fame, they should all pick one of the eight different combinations of the Final Four. Does that answer your question?
Last edited by: Wizard on Apr 9, 2018
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
djatc
djatc
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April 6th, 2018 at 4:55:07 AM permalink
I actually had an interesting conversation regarding this, and said that whoever can pick a perfect bracket will be extremely famous, if not get their 15 minutes of fame on news channels, etc.

I don't follow NCAA basketball too much, what's the closest someone has got to a perfect bracket?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
darkoz
darkoz 
Joined: Dec 22, 2009
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April 6th, 2018 at 8:12:50 AM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Quote: darkoz

Arent these perfect brackets?

[ ]

Too small.



Well I'm jewish

Its about the right size to me
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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April 6th, 2018 at 8:12:53 AM permalink
Rules 22 & 23 seem unnecesssary.

Since they say the winners advance, but rule 24 says the winners of 20 & 21 play each other, gotta wonder where the winners of 22 & 23 advance to...
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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Thanks for this post from:
smoothgrh
April 6th, 2018 at 2:56:56 PM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

I'm confused妖oes this mean steps 22 and 23 should be deleted?


22 and 23 should no longer be there, and 24 should be renumbered 22.
smoothgrh
smoothgrh
Joined: Oct 26, 2011
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April 6th, 2018 at 3:54:56 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear


Since they say the winners advance, but rule 24 says the winners of 20 & 21 play each other, gotta wonder where the winners of 22 & 23 advance to...



They used to play a third place game!

I kinda liked that預 bronze medal! But I also see the simplicity and elegance of "lose and you're done."
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
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April 6th, 2018 at 4:53:51 PM permalink
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-odds-youll-fill-out-a-perfect-bracket/

Says the odds of the favorites winning every game were close to one in two billion the year Kentucky was around a 35% favorite to win the championship. Most years the favorite is under 15% and the odds be higher.

(Of course this only applies if there is someone who implements the just pick the favorite in every game strategy -- if no one like that yet exists, then I next year I volunteer as tribute)
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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April 6th, 2018 at 7:31:24 PM permalink
Quote: smoothgrh

Quote: DJTeddyBear


Since they say the winners advance, but rule 24 says the winners of 20 & 21 play each other, gotta wonder where the winners of 22 & 23 advance to...



They used to play a third place game!

I kinda liked that預 bronze medal! But I also see the simplicity and elegance of "lose and you're done."


The last third place game was played the day President Reagan was shot in 1981.

Not only have they gotten rid of all third place games - baseball and softball had them at one point as well - but now, in sports like wrestling and swimming & diving that are points based, they give out fourth place team trophies (that are the same color as the third place ones), since they now give out four trophies in basketball.

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