JDez NFL Cover Picks
Week 5 Picks
Buffalo +3
Kansas City -1.5
Both teams have perfect covers this year and both have high cover diff above the spread margin. KC is +9.83 above and Buffalo is +7.38 above the margin. Both are a perfect 4-0 ATS. Both teams are ranked #1 and #2 in PERD (Passing Efficiency Rating Difference) which is the 2nd highest probability indicator for winning games in the NFL at this moment. KC is also #2 in the NFL in Rushing Efficiency Rating Difference (RERD).
If you are concerned about the KC cover, the ML is around -125 which still has solid value.
Quote: JoelDezeI'll continually add to this thread.
Week 5 Picks
Buffalo +3
Kansas City -1.5
Both teams have perfect covers this year and both have high cover diff above the spread margin. KC is +9.83 above and Buffalo is +7.38 above the margin. Both are a perfect 4-0 ATS. Both teams are ranked #1 and #2 in PERD (Passing Efficiency Rating Difference) which is the 2nd highest probability indicator for winning games in the NFL at this moment. KC is also #2 in the NFL in Rushing Efficiency Rating Difference (RERD).
If you are concerned about the KC cover, the ML is around -125 which still has solid value.
Thanks for doing this. I cannot find a Buffalo pick +3 without laying more than 11-10 odds. Can you? My point is that unless you pick against lines that one can actually bet on it diminishes the value of your final record.
Quote: SOOPOOThanks for doing this. I cannot find a Buffalo pick +3 without laying more than 11-10 odds. Can you? My point is that unless you pick against lines that one can actually bet on it diminishes the value of your final record.
I see lots of them in Vegas.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/las-vegas/
Quote: SOOPOOThanks for doing this. I cannot find a Buffalo pick +3 without laying more than 11-10 odds. Can you? My point is that unless you pick against lines that one can actually bet on it diminishes the value of your final record.
I use Vegas Insider for odds as it houses a lot of books. Drich posted a link and that is accurate.
Quote: gordonm888JoelDeze, could you tell us a little about your methodology? I understand you are using a computer analysis, but what kind of factors are you taking into account?
I've posted this in the past. I should probably just add the info to my blog on the site. But, many factors.
TSRS (True Statistical Rating of Strength) : uses standard deviation and covariance to offset raw stat inflation to determine how strong the each team is. It references the opposition category and determines strength of opposition. If you are great at passing offense, what type of pass defenses are you facing? If weak, are they bloating the stats?
Head 2 Head: Probability scoring algorithm that uses all scoring factors and scoring mitigation factors present in a game.
Riskmark: A risk indicator that determines how risky a pick is based on multiple variables, including chaos variables like big special teams plays, turnovers, momentum, etc.
LPR: Loss Profile Rating that combines 5 algorithms to determine a base score for each team. Regression data can then determine probability based on LPR marks.
And the list goes on....
Once a team hits all the right marks they are added to an automated picks system that is "reviewed" by me. At that point, I look into ATS perspectives, Scoring Diff, momentum factors, PERD, RERD, etc. to determine if it's a quality game to wager on.
Again, I could go on for hours but regardless, NO ONE can predict the outcome of a game. It's all sheer probability. I like the advantage of probability, especially as the season progresses and more data enters into the system. This is precisely why I waited to Week 4/5 before starting to post picks. I would also mention that I do small wagers personally up until week 7 and then moderate wagers up to week 9 before posting big wagers. Patience is the hardest trait to add to a gambler's disposition.
In order of strongest to weakest:
The Broncos are averaging 24.5 pts per game and allowing 18.5 points per game (+6 DIFF). The Giants are averaging 16.4 points per game and allowing 24.4 points per game (-8 DIFF).
Denver has a +5.67 cover diff over the ATS Spread Margin while the Giants are -6.7 below the spread margin.
Giants have no receivers and will have to utilize tight ends and are bringing guys up from the practice squad and newly signed WRs that have no Gel capability at the moment. Their O-line is atrocious.
Denver is playing at home.
Houston is averaging 28.8 points per game and allowing 26 points per game. (+2.8 DIFF). The Browns are averaging 15.4 points per game and allowing 24.8 points per game (-9.4 DIFF).
Houston is (3-2) ATS with a +6.6 Cover Diff advantage over the spread margin. Cleveland is (1-4) ATS with a -5.4 Cover Diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
Watson is on fire the last two weeks and Houston is playing extremely well.
Houston is playing at home.
Kansas City is averaging 32.8 points per game and allowing 22.2 points per game (+10.6 DIFF). Pittsburgh is averaging 19.8 points per game and allowing 17.8 points per game (+2 DIFF).
Kansas City is (5-0) ATS with a +9.1 Cover Diff advantage over the spread margin. Pittsburgh is (2-3) ATS with a -5 Cover Diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
KC is the only team in the NFL with a perfect ATS record and their monstrous cover diff advantage shows why. Alex Smith has a 125.8 PassEff rating and has thrown for 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He has a 76.6% cmp percentage. I'm only putting them third because it is extremely difficult to go 6-0 ATS. But, I'm not going to go against them until they prove me wrong. Last year as a favorite in almost every game, New England accounted for 13 ATS covers so it's not impossible for the Chiefs to beat that mark this season, given the way they are playing.
Jacksonville is averaging 27.8 points per game and allowing 16.6 points per game (+11.2 DIFF). The Rams are averaging 30.4 points per game and allowing 24.2 points per game (+6.2 DIFF).
The Jags are (3-2) ATS with a +13.8 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. The Rams are (2-3) ATS with a +5.3 cover diff advantage below the spread margin. In this case, the cover diff points to a couple of lopsided wins so I wouldn't put much stock into the number for this match-up.
The Jags have been stingy with allowing points (16.6) and lead the NFL in turnover margin (+10).
Jacksonville is playing at home.
Tampa Bay is averaging 21.2 points per game and allowing 20.8 points per game (+0.4 DIFF). Arizona is averaging 16.2 points per game and allowing 25.0 points per game (-8.8 DIFF).
The Bucs are (2-2) ATS with a -1.0 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. Arizona is (0-5) ATS with a dismal -10.1 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
Until Arizona begins to cover games, that -10.1 cover diff is atrocious. I put this play as the 5th best because the Bucs are playing away.
Quote: JoelDezeNFL Week 6 Picks and Wagers:
In order of strongest to weakest:
The Broncos are averaging 24.5 pts per game and allowing 18.5 points per game (+6 DIFF). The Giants are averaging 16.4 points per game and allowing 24.4 points per game (-8 DIFF).
Denver has a +5.67 cover diff over the ATS Spread Margin while the Giants are -6.7 below the spread margin.
Giants have no receivers and will have to utilize tight ends and are bringing guys up from the practice squad and newly signed WRs that have no Gel capability at the moment. Their O-line is atrocious.
Denver is playing at home.
Houston is averaging 28.8 points per game and allowing 26 points per game. (+2.8 DIFF). The Browns are averaging 15.4 points per game and allowing 24.8 points per game (-9.4 DIFF).
Houston is (3-2) ATS with a +6.6 Cover Diff advantage over the spread margin. Cleveland is (1-4) ATS with a -5.4 Cover Diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
Watson is on fire the last two weeks and Houston is playing extremely well.
Houston is playing at home.
Kansas City is averaging 32.8 points per game and allowing 22.2 points per game (+10.6 DIFF). Pittsburgh is averaging 19.8 points per game and allowing 17.8 points per game (+2 DIFF).
Kansas City is (5-0) ATS with a +9.1 Cover Diff advantage over the spread margin. Pittsburgh is (2-3) ATS with a -5 Cover Diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
KC is the only team in the NFL with a perfect ATS record and their monstrous cover diff advantage shows why. Alex Smith has a 125.8 PassEff rating and has thrown for 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. He has a 76.6% cmp percentage. I'm only putting them third because it is extremely difficult to go 6-0 ATS. But, I'm not going to go against them until they prove me wrong. Last year as a favorite in almost every game, New England accounted for 13 ATS covers so it's not impossible for the Chiefs to beat that mark this season, given the way they are playing.
Jacksonville is averaging 27.8 points per game and allowing 16.6 points per game (+11.2 DIFF). The Rams are averaging 30.4 points per game and allowing 24.2 points per game (+6.2 DIFF).
The Jags are (3-2) ATS with a +13.8 cover diff advantage above the spread margin. The Rams are (2-3) ATS with a +5.3 cover diff advantage below the spread margin. In this case, the cover diff points to a couple of lopsided wins so I wouldn't put much stock into the number for this match-up.
The Jags have been stingy with allowing points (16.6) and lead the NFL in turnover margin (+10).
Jacksonville is playing at home.
Tampa Bay is averaging 21.2 points per game and allowing 20.8 points per game (+0.4 DIFF). Arizona is averaging 16.2 points per game and allowing 25.0 points per game (-8.8 DIFF).
The Bucs are (2-2) ATS with a -1.0 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin. Arizona is (0-5) ATS with a dismal -10.1 cover diff disadvantage below the spread margin.
Until Arizona begins to cover games, that -10.1 cover diff is atrocious. I put this play as the 5th best because the Bucs are playing away.
Time hack note just because.
In our wov contest, I took your top 3. The last 2 looked juicy, but I never bet Florida teams, because they always screw me over. And my pick went to Mission before this post. Just to establish that...
Really appreciate you're in agreement. Maybe I'll have a good week. Good luck!
Quote: JohnzimboHow did you arrive at $55.55 for that parlay wager amount? 5 your lucky number?
No, I believe I was at $905.55 and was going to risk 50 but since I like even numbers I wagered $55.55 so that I'd still have $850. It was just easier for me to track.
No big deal. Last week was a crazy week. I personally went 1-5 in the WOV Picks contest. Major injuries affected the outcomes of some games, and most of the pickers on the internet looked bad last week (noticeable exception was Mike Shackleford, our own Wizard, who went 6-0 with his WOV contest picks.)
I think you should separate your own personal (real life) track record of sports bets from the track record of your posted picks. If you want credit for betting 110 to win 100 on your posted picks then you should say you are betting 110 at the time you post your bet. Otherwise it creates the impression that you are losing only 100 on your losing bets while winning 100 on your winning bets.
Friendly advice: Almost everyone on this site is superb at probabilistic mathematics. You MUST do the accounting correctly on your historical performance of posted picks, otherwise you will lose credibility.
Quote: gordonm888Well, for the record, your posted NFL picks were 1-4.
No big deal. Last week was a crazy week. I personally went 1-5 in the WOV Picks contest. Major injuries affected the outcomes of some games, and most of the pickers on the internet looked bad last week (noticeable exception was Mike Shackleford, our own Wizard, who went 6-0 with his WOV contest picks.)
I think you should separate your own personal (real life) track record of sports bets from the track record of your posted picks. If you want credit for betting 110 to win 100 on your posted picks then you should say you are betting 110 at the time you post your bet. Otherwise it creates the impression that you are losing only 100 on your losing bets while winning 100 on your winning bets.
Friendly advice: Almost everyone on this site is superb at probabilistic mathematics. You MUST do the accounting correctly on your historical performance of posted picks, otherwise you will lose credibility.
Yep, I understand. I'll keep track of posted picks and posted wagers only, accounting for units on posted wagers only. Everything else I do during the week will no longer be included, regardless of outcome.
Quote: RomesAppreciate the insight Joel. This last week was pretty crazy, as some weeks can be. I hope you continue to share your NFL picks.
I will continue posting NFL picks but I may slim my wagers down to one or two games that have the best modeling forecast.
Some of these same people post on other threads and really Pooh par, deride and criticise other attempted methods of making cash from gambling . I’ve also read baccarat threads etc all. Poker and roulette, blackjack ditto.
Yet the weight of expectation that they write in their post, re electronic gaming,that they will win long term really amazes me. On the same breath almost ( Iam taking poetic license here ) they can come down like a tonne of bricks if someone says they have a lucky method re team selections for sports betting or a lucky method re baccarat or roulette etc.
I really try to bet on things that offer me some sort of chance of making a return on my outlay. Please note and this may be the answer, I’m not sure, but I’m coming at this as being a professional investor (gambler) and not a recreational player. No offence but are the people that are posting re gaming machine are the majority coming from a recreational standpoint, I understand and admire the mathematical nouse on display. But doesn’t the mathematics say that you can’t win on slots machine? If you know you can’t win why play? I’m not sure why one would commit many thousands of dollars to a “maybe” I’ll get lucky today outcome. Surely a three leg parlay 4or 5leg parlay has better mathematical odds of success versus the gadzillon to 1 odds of a random number generated slot machine. I saw recently a picture posted of a video poker machine (on a recent thread) and it shows the screen with $4500ish return and $25000ish in credit. Good win don’t get me wrong. Does that person know how much more money they could make using $25k to sports bet ? In one day or one week? With less chance of losing the lot to a machine, after all we are told that it’s from the machine that casino makes all the money from, ie no profit no machine
Is it an instant gratification thing?
Not much gratification if one loses the lot in one season, or is it more about the self recriminations , loathing or admonishments (been there done that many years ago, once I realised and was honest with myself I stopped making excuses, stopped blaming everything and everyone and went about correcting that situation) of self ?
I do acknowledge that the majority here are very intelligent and I would assume that if that applied intelligence was put to sports betting they would do a lot more profit in the bank account.
Please let me say without any sarcasm or any ill will to anyone I really wish I was half as smart as you all, and I would have loved to had access to this site many years before I did.
Really no offence intended to anyone nor am I saying that which I do is correct or the only way of doing things. Neither am I adding any weight or detracting from any other poster and or thread. Thanks
I was just wondering is all
Kind regards.
You would have to forget everything you think you know and start from scratch. If you are not willing to do that then there is no sense in explaining it to you.Quote: beachmonkeyI’m not quite sure why so many threads/posts are videos poker or electronic gaming related, I’ve played/ play both, and I’m aware of the predictive win ratio and I see no one really making a long term living from playing them, here in Australia as my reference point. Maybe I should head state side. Many people post on those threads with what appears a belief that they can beat the machine of random number generators . (I’ve watched people here put their whole pay check in and receive zero dollars returned )
Some of these same people post on other threads and really Pooh par, deride and criticise other attempted methods of making cash from gambling . I’ve also read baccarat threads etc all. Poker and roulette, blackjack ditto.
Yet the weight of expectation that they write in their post, re electronic gaming,that they will win long term really amazes me. On the same breath almost ( Iam taking poetic license here ) they can come down like a tonne of bricks if someone says they have a lucky method re team selections for sports betting or a lucky method re baccarat or roulette etc.
I really try to bet on things that offer me some sort of chance of making a return on my outlay. Please note and this may be the answer, I’m not sure, but I’m coming at this as being a professional investor (gambler) and not a recreational player. No offence but are the people that are posting re gaming machine are the majority coming from a recreational standpoint, I understand and admire the mathematical nouse on display. But doesn’t the mathematics say that you can’t win on slots machine? If you know you can’t win why play? I’m not sure why one would commit many thousands of dollars to a “maybe” I’ll get lucky today outcome. Surely a three leg parlay 4or 5leg parlay has better mathematical odds of success versus the gadzillon to 1 odds of a random number generated slot machine. I saw recently a picture posted of a video poker machine (on a recent thread) and it shows the screen with $4500ish return and $25000ish in credit. Good win don’t get me wrong. Does that person know how much more money they could make using $25k to sports bet ? In one day or one week? With less chance of losing the lot to a machine, after all we are told that it’s from the machine that casino makes all the money from, ie no profit no machine
Is it an instant gratification thing?
Not much gratification if one loses the lot in one season, or is it more about the self recriminations , loathing or admonishments (been there done that many years ago, once I realised and was honest with myself I stopped making excuses, stopped blaming everything and everyone and went about correcting that situation) of self ?
I do acknowledge that the majority here are very intelligent and I would assume that if that applied intelligence was put to sports betting they would do a lot more profit in the bank account.
Please let me say without any sarcasm or any ill will to anyone I really wish I was half as smart as you all, and I would have loved to had access to this site many years before I did.
Really no offence intended to anyone nor am I saying that which I do is correct or the only way of doing things. Neither am I adding any weight or detracting from any other poster and or thread. Thanks
I was just wondering is all
Kind regards.
Do you believe in math? Math can be used to show an advantage on some machines and various situations.
Can a roulette or baccarat system player show you any math confirming he has an advantage?
What about a handicapper?
Quote: AxelWolfYou would have to forget everything you think you know and start from scratch. If you are not willing to do that then there is no sense in explaining it to you.
Do you believe in math? Math can be used to show an advantage on some machines and various situations.
Can a roulette or baccarat system player show you any math confirming he has an advantage?
What about a handicapper?
1 good point , succinctly put. I have changed many things in my life , so for me change is not a problem, can’t change can’t grow. Many cannot change if they could would be a better world.
2 yes, a language to speak with god and converse with all points in known and unknown universes
3 absolutely not
4 has less knowledge than my dog that’s been drinking beer all day.
So most of you are running a bank that you break into sessions that you use on an identified machine that conforms to your particular mathematical parameters. Some days/sessions you win some you lose correct? That’s a logical and methodical approach, I can accept that, I can also accept You have a mathematical edge, good point.
Do the manufacturers of these machines know this ? Are they working on the presumption that not many people can work the mathematical theory out on the fly so therefore your rake doesn’t effect their/ casino rake? Or do they not believe anyone can crack them, so to speak?
Have you tried to form a group of like minded people and play at a casino with say your $25k bank each and make a great living, I mean it’s not illegal to paraphrase a quote of Matt Damon’s Martian “maths the shit out of it “ and win. Like I said there are some exceptionally intelligent people on this site and I would love to have been half as smart, good for you.
But I would say not many people on the planet tackle those machines with in those guidelines.
By the way and this may sound callous to some, the less that know the better it is for you.
Kind regards.
Quote: beachmonkey
Have you tried to form a group of like minded people and play at a casino with say your $25k bank each and make a great living,
Some of the people you are conversing with on this site do exactly that and make a reasonable living doing it. They do not have other jobs or sources of income. What most people don't understand is that it is still a lot of work, lots of patience and takes a lot of discipline.
Quote: DRichSome of the people you are conversing with on this site do exactly that and make a reasonable living doing it. They do not have other jobs or sources of income. What most people don't understand is that it is still a lot of work, lots of patience and takes a lot of discipline.
Thanks that was my question I didn’t ask , re sole source of income. Great stuff and I agree as I’ve had these words with people over the years “it’s the hardest ‘easy ‘ money you’ll ever earn” . Yes it is a job but no boss, no staff problem, high running cost but the returns are great. Good luck. Kind regards
