FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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SOOPOO
July 29th, 2017 at 2:51:01 AM permalink
I hear Phil Ivey is a millionaire also.
coilman
coilman
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July 29th, 2017 at 5:52:36 AM permalink
DEL MAR

JUL 22RACE 9OFFICIAL
CARRYOVERS
N/A for this track
TVG San Diego H.
CHANGES
RESULTS & REPLAYS
RACE ENTRIESPOOL TOTALSINTERVALS
Win odds, Win, Place and Show pool sizes and exotic pool totals
PGM# HORSE POST MLO WIN
ODDS $1
WIN PAY L/C WIN POOL % PLACE POOL % SHOW POOL %
POOL TOTALS $538,038 $1,049,316 $1,752,568
1
Accelerate
1 8 7 $8.85 $51,354 9.5 $27,671 2.6 $45,988 2.6
2
El Huerfano
2 12 30 $31.80 $14,293 2.7 $9,720 0.9 $16,107 0.9
3
Arrogate
3 1/5 1/9 $1.05 $430,967 80.1 $990,270 94.4 $1,650,604 94.2
4
Donworth
4 10 24 $25.85 $17,569 3.3 $7,261 0.7 $14,235 0.8
5
Cat Burglar
5 10 18 $19.05 $23,853 4.4 $14,391 1.4 $25,632 1.5
6
Dalmore
SCR SCR

Exotic Pool Totals
Quote
RACE 9 PAYOUTS VIDEO REPLAY
FINISH PGM# HORSE MLO FINAL WIN PLACE SHOW
1
1
Accelerate 8 7 $17.70 $32.60 $22.00
2
4
Donworth 10 24 $119.80 $67.50
3
5
Cat Burglar 10 18 $38.20
WAGER RUNNERS PAYOUT
$2 Exacta 1 / 4 $196.10
$2 Quinella 1 / 4 $75.40
$0.60 Trifecta 1 / 4 / 5 $130.41
coilman
coilman
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July 29th, 2017 at 5:55:25 AM permalink
Arrogate
3 1/5 1/9 $1.05
win wagers $430,967................... 80.1%
place wagers..... $990,270.... 94.4%
show wagers.....$1,650,604........ 94.2%

only $3,072,000 total on win place show bets
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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July 29th, 2017 at 11:21:20 AM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I hear Phil Ivey is a millionaire also.



true, but there were probably 5 million people watching every move arrogate's jockey made. when a jockey stiffs a horse (holds him back) it can be seen in a replay and the very few times that has happened jockeys have been caught and disciplined. as far as i know a highbred horse worth millions of dollars has never been suspiciously handled in a big race or at least those who did such were never caught. also there are different kinds of betting patterns that provide a tell for the fix. for example: a horse that is 30/1 in the morning line is bet down to 6/1 with no obvious reason for that to happen. or a very strong favorite, expected to go off at 2/5, has a ton of money bet against him and instead he goes off at 3/1. or they try to disguise the fix by letting a 30/1 horse go off at 30/1 in the win pool but bet him way down in the exacta or trifecta. or they let the strong favorite go off at 2/5 in the win pool but bet very heavy against him in the exacta and trifecta pool. those tricks are not tricky enough to fool the authorities.
"There are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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July 29th, 2017 at 9:01:16 PM permalink
At that level, the real money is in the value on the farm as a stallion after retirement from racing. It would be idiotic financial suicide to diminish his perceived future value at stud even slightly.

If he met the very high expectations for his on-track performance in his races this year, and was then immediately retired at the end of this year, he could easily have been sold into syndication for $80,000,000+ (eighty-million or more) as he'd likely be earning around $200k to start in his first season for the syndicate or breeder(s) every time he impregnated a mare, which he'd likely be doing many times every year for a couple of decades, potentially resulting in a hundred million and possibly a couple or several hundred million or more in breeding fees over the lifetime of his "retirement" from racing. The wagering on this race is trivial by comparison.

There is zero possibility of laying off enough money to make stiffing such a horse at that level a sane act, and doing so could only be seriously contemplated by a drooling imbecile.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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July 29th, 2017 at 10:13:55 PM permalink
I have no problem taking chalk (heavy favorites) in various ways, under the right circumstances. But here is a partial list of what I consider to be some of the WRONG circumstances to eat chalk; examples of things, any ONE of which would usually lead me to quickly conclude that it is NOT the right time to accept a very short priced favorite:

[ _ ] Moving to a new surface, distance, or class, absent multiple major clues that the new conditions are likely even MORE suitable than the performances that led to today's short price;

[ x ] First race back off significant layoff;

[ x ] First race returning from shipping back and forth to compete in Dubai;

[ _ ] Wrong side of lifetime form cycle curve, an ageing/maturing favorite with clear precocious "win early" pedigree;

[ x ] A very short field, which is prone to peculiar erratic pace and anomalous results;

...this list could go on, but my point is that while this was not the most likely result, I wouldn't consider it even mildly shocking at all. The wagering market had him at about 79% probability of winning. So the collective judgement of the market implied a still significant probability of more than 20% that he would not win. And in my opinion, he was significantly overbet in this, with about a 60-65% probability of winning and nearly 40%-ish likelihood that he would not. The somewhat tricky business of deriving place and show probabilities based on market price or my or your opinion of fair value can be done, but gets more complex.

But the point I'm getting at should be apparent: there was always a clear and obviously non-trivial chance of him finishing off the board, It would be shocking if there wasn't, under the best of circumstances. And the circumstances of this one had flashing warning lights up the ying-yang - see checked boxes above.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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onenickelmiracle
July 30th, 2017 at 1:16:06 AM permalink
baffert was quoted saying he's going to run arrogate in the pacific classic at del mar on sat. 8/19 and imho it is a rare opportunity for gamblers. for those who think arrogate's loss was a fluke they will probably be able to get way better odds - i would guess 3/5 or even possibly higher if it's a large field. and for those who think he's done as a superstar they will still be able to get a nice price betting against him.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jul 30, 2017
"There are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy."
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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July 30th, 2017 at 3:21:04 AM permalink
I guess I'm just a very suspicious type. (Except when I should be).

I've not heard the term stiffing before, I guess it comes from holding the reines with a stiff arm.

I was thinking more of what do the cameras show in the Parade to the Post and entering the gate.
Anything the least bit unusual there?

I also wish to comment on Stud fees: I doubt the horse will be less valuable because he suffers from some after affects from that long ago incident when a jockey stiffed him.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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July 30th, 2017 at 5:56:04 AM permalink
I am also suspicious, and I'm especially suspicious of the methods (*ahem* doping) of some trainers, this one foremost among them. But I do not suspect him and others of his type of acting completely contrary to their clear financial self interest. Races involving $5k claimers at Portland Meadows, Delta Downs, or Turf Paradise are another matter entirely. I have no suspicions there, because they are most certainly crooked, without any doubt whatsoever, since eking out an honest living there is simply impossible (and trying to do so might even get you whacked for your saintly lack of crooked cooperation by the mob ownership of Turf Paradise in Phoenix). In-between hither & yon, top-hats & bottom-feeders... ehhhh. It varies. It's just that this animal in this event is simply not near the neighborhood where it even remotely pays to arrange for intentionally variable stuff to be creeping around.

But you're very much mistaken in your assumptions and doubts about there being any financially meaningful stud fee effects. Taken in context of pedigree, the race record in the small number of top level graded stakes, such as this one, is by far the most significant driver of demand for this four-hoofed oat-munching asset - especially a Grade 1 or 2 stakes contested at this kind of "two-turn" distance at this point in his maturation, particularly for the potential demand from the international market. His failure to perform in the race is the effect, and his value when sold is now diminished by the race result to a material degree, immediately, and to a non-trivial extent somewhat permanently, since permanently for the current owners will be a fixed lump sum established rather soon. And when his lifetime of services are offered for sale in a few months, it will not be a "long ago incident." None of the races ever run by this class of horse are going to be "long ago" at the critical point, soon, when the sum total of their entire future lifetime of breeding rights are commonly sold into syndication in a single transaction.

Right now he's an adolescent on the cusp of early adulthood, and it would be an astounding decision by his current humans if he ever sees a racetrack as a fully mature 5 y/o adult next year. This kind of racehorse does not usually keep racing for long enough to ever get to "long ago." That's just how it works at that level these days. He has now raced a total of nine times in his life, including this event, and he's unlikely to ever race more than about a dozen times or so when finished. Only five of those nine are what's called "black-type" races in events designated as "Graded" or even merely less important "Listed" Stakes, and when he's done at the track this race will still comprise a significant portion of his resume of them.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Jul 30, 2017
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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July 30th, 2017 at 6:26:11 AM permalink
re stud fees and the cost of horses it's fun to look back at the times things didn't pan out and the rich guys got creamed. the green monkey, was a descendant of secretariat and northern dancer and he was sold in 2006 when he was 2 years old for $16 million. he never won a race. he finished 4th, 4th and 3rd in maiden races and then retired. lol
"There are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy."

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