I am also suspicious, and I'm especially suspicious of the methods (*ahem* doping) of some trainers, this one foremost among them. But I do not suspect him and others of his type of acting completely contrary to their clear financial self interest. Races involving $5k claimers at Portland Meadows, Delta Downs, or Turf Paradise are another matter entirely. I have no suspicions there, because they are most certainly crooked, without any doubt whatsoever, since eking out an honest living there is simply impossible (and trying to do so might even get you whacked for your saintly lack of crooked cooperation by the mob ownership of Turf Paradise in Phoenix). In-between hither & yon, top-hats & bottom-feeders... ehhhh. It varies. It's just that this animal in this event is simply not near the neighborhood where it even remotely pays to arrange for intentionally variable stuff to be creeping around.
But you're very much mistaken in your assumptions and doubts about there being any financially meaningful stud fee effects. Taken in context of pedigree, the race record in the small number of top level graded stakes, such as this one, is by far the most significant driver of demand for this four-hoofed oat-munching asset - especially a Grade 1 or 2 stakes contested at this kind of "two-turn" distance at this point in his maturation, particularly for the potential demand from the international market. His failure to perform in the race is
the effect, and his value when sold is now diminished by the race result to a material degree, immediately, and to a non-trivial extent somewhat permanently, since permanently for the current owners will be a fixed lump sum established rather soon. And when his lifetime of services are offered for sale in a few months, it will not be a "long ago incident." None of the races ever run by this class of horse are going to be "long ago" at the critical point, soon, when the sum total of their entire future lifetime of breeding rights are commonly sold into syndication in a single transaction.
Right now he's an adolescent on the cusp of early adulthood, and it would be an astounding decision by his current humans if he ever sees a racetrack as a fully mature 5 y/o adult next year. This kind of racehorse does not usually keep racing for long enough to ever get to "long ago." That's just how it works at that level these days. He has now raced a total of nine times in his life, including this event, and he's unlikely to ever race more than about a dozen times or so when finished. Only five of those nine are what's called "black-type" races in events designated as "Graded" or even merely less important "Listed" Stakes, and when he's done at the track this race will still comprise a significant portion of his resume of them.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on Jul 30, 2017