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bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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June 15th, 2017 at 10:33:42 PM permalink
Beach,

I'm not sure what impression you have of my posts. Is there anything to police? Maybe you should take a poll to see if I'm hurting this thread (in some way)?

Would you prefer less post traffic? I post here since I'm here reading Steel's picks daily. Actually some great idea exchange has happened online and off (with other players) well beyond what you see in the thread.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
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June 16th, 2017 at 5:19:16 AM permalink
Just as brief explanation as to why I started this. First, and foremost, it was because I thought it'd be fun to do. Secondly, I have always believed that, with proper hard work and focus, someone can develop algorithms that work in picking sports as long as the games are honest.

I appreciate keeping this board civil and I also appreciate the discussion. bazooooka, just one thought for you. You would do well by everyone if you would post these picks that you want to me to track on your own. You're welcome to do so here. I allocate a limited amount of time to this stuff. Typically in the mornings and I do not wish to turn it into a full time job by updating throughout the day.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
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June 16th, 2017 at 5:29:17 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Mariners -100
 White Sox 100
 Red Sox -1610
 Mets -100
 Brewers 129
 Rockies 700
 Athletics 700
 Royals 119

Yesterday's results: -62
+130dogs 0
Other dogs +48
Favorites +100
Focus Picks +700
FocusFlips 0
DogFlips -910

YTD Total -28,352
+130dogs +491
Other dogs -1,038
Favorites -403
Focus Picks -14,544
FocusFlips -3,457
DogFlips -9,401
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 16th, 2017 at 5:36:46 AM permalink
Another day where I'm just going to have to keep my eyes closed............

Today's Picks:
 Pirates 105
 Orioles 113
 Blue Jays -155 DogFlips 7X's
 Tigers -150 DogFlips 7X's
 Nationals -153 DogFlips 7X's
 Marlins 100
 Mariners -140 DogFlips 7X's
 Brewers -163 DogFlips 7X's
 Red Sox 101
 Astros -111 Focus 7X's
 Indians -150 DogFlips 7X's
 Giants 101
 Yankees -140 DogFlips 7X's
 Royals 110
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8544
June 16th, 2017 at 9:24:51 AM permalink
Red Sox 101
Astros -111


????
# Свободный Натан
TomG
TomG
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 1828
June 16th, 2017 at 10:04:31 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

A few have taken the time to read my posts and backtested what I've said.



I would be very interested in seeing the methods and results.

I just went through every time steel bet a favorite for $700 and checked what the results would have been if it was at -1.5 instead of the moneyline, using Pinnaclesports closing lines. The result would have been -$15,491. This is a better result than betting the game lines only because less money was bet overall. The return on investment was very close (less than 1%, -16%, compared to -15%); 23% of winners turned into losers

Finding closing lines (or any lines) on alternate run lines takes a lot more digging, but sometime later this week I'll look through William Hill lines to back test the results of all the $700 underdogs bet and see how they would have done against -1.5 lines. Again, if you could share the methods and the results you got, it would be helpful
IndyJeffrey
IndyJeffrey
Joined: Feb 10, 2013
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 173
June 16th, 2017 at 12:48:46 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Red Sox 101
Astros -111



Since the Astros are a x7, one would think that is the one he would go with. Then again, how did both appear?
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
June 16th, 2017 at 2:00:59 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Red Sox 101
Astros -111


????



Sorry RS. Was running out for an early morning meeting and screwed up.
Picks should be:
 Blue Jays DogFlips 7X's
 Tigers DogFlips 7X's
 Nationals DogFlips 7X's
 Marlins
 Mariners DogFlips 7X's
 Brewers DogFlips 7X's
 Astros Focus 7X's
 Indians DogFlips 7X's
 Giants
 Yankees DogFlips 7X's
 Royals
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
June 16th, 2017 at 3:30:42 PM permalink
You are on the right track, You should look at all his 2017 underdog mlb picks. And all +125 dogs (regardless how they were labeled them),. And his 7x underdogs vs 7x chalk picks

**You will be Happy what the "alt" line shows you. I hope you post for the rest of us.

NOTE: As for recent picks, Steel has switched his picks but not his algo (ie he plays the "Dog Flips").

I suspect that these should be tracked from Summer or from mid July; but if you want to start from when Steel flipped them that works. I'm not a huge fan and I still am playing the dogs. I have less faith in big chalk picks and typically easy pickins in MLB is gone come Summer.

In my own system I was play the dog side of the dog flips and will likely taper these off by month end.

****But if I were to switch to a chalk player then I'd switch to "runline" on anything past -135
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 16, 2017
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
June 16th, 2017 at 3:50:30 PM permalink
Steel, I'm going to to take the alt line against your DogFlips hoping to hit 33%.
Last edited by: bazooooka on Jun 16, 2017

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