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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 27th, 2017 at 6:12:54 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Did he say that somewhere? I'm not finding it. A line of -108 vs -102 is perfectly consistent with both sides of the line for the late game, but does not fit at all with the earlier lines that were available for the rescheduled game. And he has previously stated that his algorithm will never pick part of a doubleheader.



Correct that the algorithm should never pick the back end of a double header. Without a lot of spinning, this is nothing more than stupidity exhibiting itself. I now have to go through and find why it occurred. Tracking down this crap is tiresome. In addition, another piece of stupidity on my part was taking the Orioles at 7x's. They should have been 1X and I didn't realize that until this morning, after my stupidity has cost me once again. They should have been 1X since they have been the worst performing +130dog so far this year.

I have made a nice life with the ability to recognize, realize and then solve the problems that are presented. My intent is to get my act together on the MLB wagering because losing wrapped in stupidity is just too tough to take.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 27th, 2017 at 6:17:52 AM permalink
bazooooka, I believe that you may be on to something with using the run lines on the +130dogs. Unfortunately, my records won't allow me to easily do any back testing. I have data files grouped by day and only cumulative data on certain items. One of which is NOT the final score since I have never cared whether a team won or lost by 1, or if they won or lost by 9.

I'm going to, starting with today, start listing those as (in your honor) bazooookas' picks and we'll see how they do on a test basis.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 27th, 2017 at 8:35:46 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Rangers -105 Focus 7X's
 White Sox 125
 Rays -108 Focus 7X's
 Mariners 147 Focus 7X's
 Marlins 115
 Brewers 120
 Royals 165 +130Dogs 7X's (edited)
 Mets 125
 Orioles 180 +130Dogs 1X's
 Cardinals 100 Focus 7X's


Bazooooka's Run Line Picks:
 Royals -1.5R+260


Bazooooka, I have never (that I can recall) played the run line in MLB. When I looked to get run lines at -1.5, I could not find one on every game. For example, the Orioles. I see no run line at -1.5 for them. Am I missing something? Is stupidity rearing its ugly head again for me?
Last edited by: steeldco on May 27, 2017
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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May 27th, 2017 at 9:14:16 AM permalink
Are the Royals 7x +130 dogs, or regular 1x +130 dogs?

William Hill at least has the opposite run line marked "reverse point line".
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
RS
May 27th, 2017 at 9:27:32 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Are the Royals 7x +130 dogs, or regular 1x +130 dogs?

William Hill at least has the opposite run line marked "reverse point line".



Wow.....my screw-ups just won't let up. Thanks RS! They are 7X's. I will also edit the original post.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 28th, 2017 at 7:53:54 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Rangers -735
 White Sox 125
 Rays -756
 Mariners -700
 Marlins -100
 Brewers 120
 Royals 1155
 Mets -100
 Orioles -100
 Cardinals 700

Yesterday's results: -391
+130dogs +1,055
Other dogs +45
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,491
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -19,103
+130dogs -3,252
Other dogs -87
Favorites -803
Focus Picks -12,904
FocusFlips -2,057

Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks: +260
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 28th, 2017 at 8:32:08 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Marlins -101
 Royals 121
 Padres 161 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rays -105 Focus 7X's
 Orioles 185 +130Dogs 1X's
 Cardinals 119 Focus 7X's
 Braves 174 FocusFlips 7X's
 Mets 101 Focus 7X's


Bazooooka's Alt Run Line Picks:
 Padres -1.5R+385
 Orioles -1.5R+440
 Braves -1.5R+400
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
GWAE
GWAE
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
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May 28th, 2017 at 10:42:25 AM permalink
The padres are +130 +385, can you buy the .5 run to make it -1? If you can I assume it will make it +250 or so, would that be better than the -1.5, would reduce variance I would think.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
steeldco
steeldco
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May 28th, 2017 at 11:05:53 AM permalink
Hey GWAE, thanks. I'm really in test mode on this, but will keep the thought. I am just testing based upon Bazooooka's recommendation.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
GWAE
GWAE
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May 28th, 2017 at 11:52:17 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Hey GWAE, thanks. I'm really in test mode on this, but will keep the thought. I am just testing based upon Bazooooka's recommendation.



Yeah I get that. It was more of a question than a suggestion.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

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