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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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Thanks for this post from:
RisingDough
May 25th, 2017 at 2:23:52 PM permalink
Hey RD! Really great to see you back. Congrats on Phils. Let's go Brewers!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 26th, 2017 at 5:46:40 AM permalink
This is discouraging, I now wonder whether the Focus Picks algorithm is just crap. I may put an end to them....and remove that misery.

Yesterday's Results:
 Braves -100
 Rockies -763
 Red Sox +100
 Mets -210
 Brewers -735

Yesterday's results: -1,708
+130dogs 0
Other dogs -100
Favorites -110
Focus Picks -1,498
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -17,084
+130dogs -2,807
Other dogs -32
Favorites -803
Focus Picks -11,385
FocusFlips -2,057
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 26th, 2017 at 7:41:44 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 White Sox -102
 Mets 103 Focus 7X's
 Rangers 130 +130Dogs 1X's
 Mariners 156 +130Dogs 7X's
 Twins 120
 Orioles 135 +130Dogs 7X's
 Brewers -107 Focus 7X's
 Tigers -108 Focus 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 26th, 2017 at 5:39:53 PM permalink
"Focus Flips" and +130 dogs on the alt run lines have done great. Your problem is bet bouncing and not consistently flipping the focus picks from the jump. However Vegas gets sharper as the season progresses so I'd think it all gets harder from here.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2233
May 26th, 2017 at 8:36:33 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks:
 White Sox -102
...<SNIP>...
 Tigers -108 Focus 7X's

?!?
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2112
May 26th, 2017 at 10:11:04 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

?!?



It was originally a doubleheader scheduled , his picks were the whitesox in game 1 (which was rained out), and tigers in game 2 which is the one being played at this moment
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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May 26th, 2017 at 10:36:36 PM permalink
Did he say that somewhere? I'm not finding it. A line of -108 vs -102 is perfectly consistent with both sides of the line for the late game, but does not fit at all with the earlier lines that were available for the rescheduled game. And he has previously stated that his algorithm will never pick part of a doubleheader.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
michael99000
michael99000
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
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May 26th, 2017 at 11:15:03 PM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

Did he say that somewhere? I'm not finding it. A line of -108 vs -102 is perfectly consistent with both sides of the line for the late game, but does not fit at all with the earlier lines that were available for the rescheduled game. And he has previously stated that his algorithm will never pick part of a doubleheader.



I talked it over with two of my buddies (all 3 of us bet these steel plays ) and we all agreed it hadda be game 1 and game 2. He's never before bet both sides of the same game as far as we know. All he would've been doing in that case is guaranteeing himself either an $80 or $20 loss.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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May 27th, 2017 at 2:03:33 AM permalink
Oh my. So that must be it, huh? When there were two events on the board, were the lines identical? Or very close to it? Quoted at -102/-108 for both, or something like that when/where your buddies got to it? Because they weren't the same for each of two events at any time anywhere in the line history from any source, either brick & mortar books or online/offshore. And they'd have to have been identical lines for both sides in both games in order for that to have been the intent, since -102 for one means it was -108 for the other side, and vice versa.

BTW, that would not be the result of simultaneous wagers on both sides of the actual game. Because one side (DET) was one of his martingale bets at 7 times the unit-betting amount. The CWS bet was listed as the normal 1x unit amount. But regardless of that, yes, betting both sides simultaneously would obviously be a really stupid thing to ever do intentionally (absent a sudden huge line movement creating a 'middling' opportunity - which did not occur).

And I doubt he ever intended to do it, or that he actually did do it; I'd suspect a more mundane sort of error, either in his system output or in the process of posting it, before I'd imagine he did that. Because it would be silly, and I'm sure he knows that. But then, so would anyone out there ever blindly betting on ANY sort of "yee-haw looky here wees gotz us sum free pix on dis here smart folkz gamblin' site baby from wat a winnah dude (lately kinda sorta) sez from da sciency interwebz." That would be really foolish. Especially, say, if someone was such an impulsive gambler that they did that with real money in an amount that mattered to them without even bothering to look at the readily available five year history. More so even than deciding to pay vig to bet both sides of the same event.

But now I've been sounding insufficiently cheery, in the "dunno nuttin' bout wad it iz in dis algo-thingy but letz jus go rah-rah baby an' surely it'll cum true" place. And in the past that kind of intrusion has made the believers angrily work themselves into a little believe harder and burn the witch frenzy. I'll quit the diversion and go back to my witches lair, as this isn't the biggest deal of the century or the week or even probably of Friday, and I'm sure Mr. S will clear up that little anomaly between the listed DET/CWS wagers in short order after it has been brought to his attention.
Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 27, 2017
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 27th, 2017 at 6:05:37 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 White Sox 0
 Mets +721
 Rangers -100
 Mariners -700
 Twins -100
 Orioles -700
 Brewers -749
 Tigers 0

Yesterday's results: -1,628
+130dogs -1,500
Other dogs -100
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -28
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -18,712
+130dogs -4,307
Other dogs -132
Favorites -803
Focus Picks -11,413
FocusFlips -2,057
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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