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steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
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May 18th, 2017 at 6:56:09 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Tigers 115
 Phillies 135 +130Dogs 1X's
 Padres -130 Focus 7X's
 Royals 105
 Red Sox 101
 Marlins 172 +130Dogs 7X's
 White Sox 144 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 18th, 2017 at 6:58:36 AM permalink
Steel, you really should consider (and backtest) the -1.5 run lines. It would have paid over 2K on the Rays and really helps offset the days when you picks hit below 30%.

Also your Focus Flips (if you had been playing since we discussed few weeks back) have been on a great run. Maybe you should/could assume that the both Focus and the +130s won't both outperform at same time thus maybe flip one of them. I think its too late to flip your +130s; hopefully this huge drawdown bottoms soon.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 18th, 2017 at 7:00:42 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel, ou really should consider the -1.5 run lines. It would have paid over 2K on the Rays and really helps offset the days when you picks hit below 30%.

Also your Focus Flips (if you had been playing since we discussed few weeks back) have been on a great run. You should assume that the Focus and the +130s won't both perform at same time so maybe flip one of them. But I think its too late to flip your +130s; hopefully drawdown bottoms soon.



bazooooka, I posted today's picks. I do end up flipping the +130s but it's too early.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 18th, 2017 at 2:05:27 PM permalink
Great. I see the picks now.

Fyi: you can get +250 on White Sox and +300 on Marlins if you take the alternative -1.5 lines.

*When I back tested all dog upsets I found that they covered the -1.5 over 55% of the time. Since your getting an extra +70-100 on these it makes sense. You only need to hit your +130 dog picks at above 25-30%, when using the increased run lines, and this works out in the black. If you look at your entire +130 history I'd bet you hit above 30% when factoring in only -1.5 winners.

**Your dog picks could use the extra juice especially if you think you're near max drawdown territory.
Last edited by: bazooooka on May 18, 2017
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 19th, 2017 at 7:16:13 AM permalink
Yesterday's F'd up results:
 Tigers +115
 Phillies -100
 Padres -910
 Royals +105
 Red Sox -100
 Marlins -700
 White Sox -700

Yesterday's results: -2,290
+130dogs -1,500
Other dogs +120
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -910
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -18,476
+130dogs -4,191
Other dogs -817
Favorites -250
Focus Picks -10,748
FocusFlips -2,470
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 19th, 2017 at 7:23:09 AM permalink
One noteworthy item. Yesterday was the 5th. consecutive losing day for the +130dogs. Last year the longest losing streak was also 5 consecutive days, starting 05/24. In 2015? Also 5 consecutive losing days. 2014? 5 consecutive losing days.

Here's hoping that the historical trend holds................
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 19th, 2017 at 7:37:15 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Brewers 145 +130Dogs 7X's
 Blue Jays 106
 Phillies 115
 Angels 140 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rays 120
 Rockies 100
 Indians 120 Focus 7X's
 Giants 132 +130Dogs 7X's
 Athletics 165 +130Dogs 7X's
 White Sox 100
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 19th, 2017 at 1:36:21 PM permalink
Steel,

Your down almost 19k total and were only 45 days into this season. Do you expect to finish the year in the black. And at what point would you abort (if ever)?

Quote: steeldco

One noteworthy item. Yesterday was the 5th. consecutive losing day for the +130dogs. Last year the longest losing streak was also 5 consecutive days, starting 05/24. In 2015? Also 5 consecutive losing days. 2014? 5 consecutive losing days.

Here's hoping that the historical trend holds................

steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 19th, 2017 at 2:27:03 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel,

Your down almost 19k total and were only 45 days into this season. Do you expect to finish the year in the black. And at what point would you abort (if ever)?



Hang around. I'm not going anywhere.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 20th, 2017 at 6:07:26 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Brewers +1015
 Blue Jays -100
 Phillies +115
 Angels -700
 Rays +120
 Rockies +100
 Indians +840
 Giants +924
 Athletics +1155
 White Sox +100

Yesterday's results: +3,569
+130dogs +2,394
Other dogs +335
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +840
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -14,907
+130dogs -1,797
Other dogs -482
Favorites -250
Focus Picks -9,908
FocusFlips -2,470
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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