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bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 6th, 2017 at 7:27:21 PM permalink
Blacklisting and bet bouncing are when he goes away from the algo. I suspect the algo does better without discretion. However, I think Steel will find that if he only played dogs...even the dogs when his algo says pick the fav...that his system sniffs out dogs consistently better. I've done well fading many of these fav picks. I've thought about fading all favorites that he posts thus watch them turn now.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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May 6th, 2017 at 9:18:08 PM permalink
I got the Reds at +115 ML for tomorrow. What do you think of that, Steeldco? Yay or nay?


Also, question......would it be possible for you to include the probability chance for each game you select? I remember before you were saying you bet on dogs that you believe to have a 45% chance to win or better (or something like that). If it's too much work or if you don't want to share that part of your system with us, I understand.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 6th, 2017 at 11:47:46 PM permalink
You can convert odds here. Add a few points for edge if one likes a pick. A 7x pick might be thought of as a 5% edge or more. Best capper in the world pick around 54-56% long term on a 50/50 bet.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/odds-converter/
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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May 7th, 2017 at 12:47:59 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

You can convert odds here. Add a few points for edge if one likes a pick. A 7x pick might be thought of as a 5% edge or more. Best capper in the world pick around 54-56% long term on a 50/50 bet.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/odds-converter/


I'm not talking about implied probability.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 7th, 2017 at 6:23:34 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Twins -700
 Blue Jays -100
 Nationals +100
 White Sox -700
 Braves -749
 Marlins -100
 Giants -100
 Cubs -945
 Tigers -100
 Angels +111
 Rangers -100

Yesterday's results: -3,383
+130dogs -1,400
Other dogs -289
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -1,694
FocusFlips 0

YTD Total -8,365
+130dogs +3,602
Other dogs -924
Favorites -862
Focus Picks -8,781
FocusFlips -1,400
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 7th, 2017 at 6:26:42 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I get a little worried when you start blacklisting teams. What's the logic behind that?



I had noticed last year that one or two teams start out losing and never recover. This year I am attempting to find and reduce the wager size on those.

The record since I started doing that is that the blacklisted teams are a cumulative 4 wins and 11 losses. It has, and yes it's a small sample size, worked so far. Interestingly, the White Sox are close to breaking onto that list and supplanting the Rays. Not quite yet though.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 7th, 2017 at 6:28:29 AM permalink
Quote: RS

I got the Reds at +115 ML for tomorrow. What do you think of that, Steeldco? Yay or nay?


Also, question......would it be possible for you to include the probability chance for each game you select? I remember before you were saying you bet on dogs that you believe to have a 45% chance to win or better (or something like that). If it's too much work or if you don't want to share that part of your system with us, I understand.



RS, I'll give it some thought. As you know I play it pretty tight to the vest as far the algorithm is concerned. We'll see.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
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May 7th, 2017 at 6:53:43 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Marlins 123
 Braves 108 Focus 7X's
 Brewers 115
 White Sox 110
 Twins 159 +130Dogs 7X's
 Indians -104
 Phillies 120
 Diamondbacks 106 Focus 7X's
 Tigers 100
 Rangers 108
 Reds 100
 Yankees 114
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 7th, 2017 at 7:24:27 AM permalink
The "edge" is assumed over "implied" when Steel talks about ideally hitting 45% on picks that average +150. Steel is good at line shifting and thus he likely can even do better than a +150 average on his dog. But this dog wont hunt unless he hits above 40%. You have to assume he thinks there is a 3-5% or more edge or why place the wager since? The 7x is the magic though...or the poison if it turns south and the algo variance bites you. Real question is what's the likelihood that variance will wipe one out at 7x even if picking with an edge?
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
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May 7th, 2017 at 3:52:31 PM permalink
Steel,

What kind of variance do you expect or have you seen in your MLB betting? Having you had $13,000 swings where you can be up 6k on year but end up down 7k later in the betting season? What's your thoughts on variance and what is normal vs unusual for a 7x type betting with 1x sprinkled in?

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