Steel, if you fade your focus picks heavy favs you may have something worthwhile.
I think your system is picking up on "public" mony favorites - thus they are over bet and under capped. I think you'll find that that -150 to -200 picks are more a function of public money than true odds.
Even then very best MLB team(s) will only win 60% for a season (i.e. Cubs). But often you'll find -150 (ie 60% implied) to -200 (66.6% implied) odds on teams that are not much better than coin flips.
bazooooka, you are pretty much right on. I'm going to fade any focus pick that is greater than a 150 favorite and is the home team.
Doing so this year would meant a positive swing of 9,205. The impact on last year's Focus Picks would have increased the total win by 32%.
Yesterday's results: -955
Other dogs +233
Focus Picks -973
YTD Total -4,294
Other dogs -808
Focus Picks -7,199
Blue Jays 155 +130Dogs 1X's
Tigers 130 +130Dogs 7X's
Rays 133 +130Dogs 1X's
White Sox 145 +130Dogs 7X's
Steel why the 1x on the Rays and Jays. Did you see something that made you adjust down the sizing? Detroit looks like a nice pick.
Cuz Rays and Blue Jays had been underperforming or something, so he dropped them from being 7x'able.
I wish you folks spoke English on occasion so I'd have a clue of wha'ts going on here.
baseball team "rays" bad.
steeldco no big bet rays.
baseball team "blue jays" bad.
steeldco no big bet blue jays.
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steeldco machine tell good wager.
sometime machine say good wager rays.
other time machine say good wager blue jays.
steeldco wager small.