Thread Rating:

steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
April 30th, 2017 at 8:01:08 AM permalink
BTW, the +130dogs at this time last year were +5,558. This year they are +4,884. If the damn Phillies reliever wouldn't have decided to throw batting practice, I'd be well ahead of last year's pace.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
April 30th, 2017 at 10:25:52 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel, if you fade your focus picks heavy favs you may have something worthwhile.

I think your system is picking up on "public" mony favorites - thus they are over bet and under capped. I think you'll find that that -150 to -200 picks are more a function of public money than true odds.

Even then very best MLB team(s) will only win 60% for a season (i.e. Cubs). But often you'll find -150 (ie 60% implied) to -200 (66.6% implied) odds on teams that are not much better than coin flips.



bazooooka, you are pretty much right on. I'm going to fade any focus pick that is greater than a 150 favorite and is the home team.
Doing so this year would meant a positive swing of 9,205. The impact on last year's Focus Picks would have increased the total win by 32%.

Thanks!!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
April 30th, 2017 at 2:42:12 PM permalink
It's worked for me. But I don't think I'd go 7x on them since they are unproven . If you do fade them maybe designate them as fades when you post your picks. Thanks as always.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 1st, 2017 at 7:51:01 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Orioles +108
 Rays -112
 Indians +700
 Mets -861
 Brewers +100
 Athletics -700
 Reds +1085
 Padres +125
 Rockies -700
 Phillies -700

Yesterday's results: -955
+130dogs -315
Other dogs +233
Favorites +100
Focus Picks -973

YTD Total -4,294
+130dogs +4,569
Other dogs -808
Favorites -856
Focus Picks -7,199
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
May 1st, 2017 at 8:00:40 AM permalink
The new daily indicator is showing a good day for the +130dogs today.....

Today's Picks:
 Blue Jays 155 +130Dogs 1X's
 Reds 108
 Orioles 127
 Tigers 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rays 133 +130Dogs 1X's
 White Sox 145 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 1st, 2017 at 5:24:49 PM permalink
Steel why the 1x on the Rays and Jays. Did you see something that made you adjust down the sizing? Detroit looks like a nice pick.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8623
May 1st, 2017 at 5:59:12 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel why the 1x on the Rays and Jays. Did you see something that made you adjust down the sizing? Detroit looks like a nice pick.


Cuz Rays and Blue Jays had been underperforming or something, so he dropped them from being 7x'able.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 159
  • Posts: 8345
Thanks for this post from:
djatc
May 1st, 2017 at 6:04:15 PM permalink
I wish you folks spoke English on occasion so I'd have a clue of wha'ts going on here.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
  • Threads: 62
  • Posts: 8623
Thanks for this post from:
RisingDough
May 1st, 2017 at 6:12:57 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

I wish you folks spoke English on occasion so I'd have a clue of wha'ts going on here.



baseball team "rays" bad.
steeldco no big bet rays.
baseball team "blue jays" bad.
steeldco no big bet blue jays.
saloon offer baseball wager.
steeldco machine tell good wager.
sometime machine say good wager rays.
other time machine say good wager blue jays.
steeldco wager small.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_K-L9uhsBLM
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
May 1st, 2017 at 7:00:04 PM permalink
Looks like a 7 unit bet ($700 bucks if you normally bet $100) on the Rays and Jays would have been nice. Parlay paid 7 to 1 HUGE on it too. Maybe a 7 unit parlay bet should have been the call; I dabbled.

  • Jump to: