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bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
April 27th, 2017 at 3:27:46 PM permalink
BetNow.eu seems to offer better than US bettors can normally get. http://www.espn.com/espn/chalk/liveOdds If you have found a was to consistently get better lines then you should fade the run lines since the +130 will have often have +160
1.5 spread lines and +150 will have +190 spread lines at times. I bet you'll find that that the extra run line juice will offset the rare 1 run game. When I lake the underdog I usually like them to win by 2 runs (not all sites allow). Same when I bet favs. 1 run games seem random and thus extra juice normally worth it to have your team win by 2+. Or a push if you can find the rare +/- 1 run line. Braves today would have paid huge if you had bet them to win by over 1.5 runs.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
April 27th, 2017 at 11:03:41 PM permalink
Rigo, do you use a US facing online books or bet with agent (or in Nevada)? Baseball lines are not all equal. I commend Steel for getting lines that seem to trend in his favor and open at numbers not normally available to us all. Line shopping is a skill and Euro and other offshore books often are the best (I've heard).
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
April 28th, 2017 at 6:00:17 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Braves +1365
 Mariners +123
 Cardinals +100
 Rockies -100
 Giants -700
 Astros -700
 Padres -700
 Athletics -100

Yesterday's results: -712
+130dogs -735
Other dogs -77
Favorites 100
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total -4,853
+130dogs +2,938
Other dogs -1,192
Favorites -891
Focus Picks -5,708
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
April 28th, 2017 at 6:32:06 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Mets 156 +130Dogs 7X's
 Rays 128 Focus 7X's
 Orioles 110
 Indians -202 Focus 7X's
 Red Sox 112
 Rangers 106
 Braves 115
 Reds 140 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
April 29th, 2017 at 7:09:41 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Mets +1092
 Rays +896
 Orioles -100
 Indians -1414
 Red Sox +112
 Rangers -100
 Braves +115
 Reds -700

Yesterday's results: -99
+130dogs +392
Other dogs +27
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -518

YTD Total -4,952
+130dogs +3,330
Other dogs -1,165
Favorites -891
Focus Picks -6,226
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
April 29th, 2017 at 7:26:01 AM permalink
The new daily indicator was wrong the last time. It is today foretelling a good day for the +130dogs. Let's hope it's right this time.

Today's Picks:
 Rays 109 Focus 7X's
 Mets 180 +130Dogs 7X's
 Yankees -170
 Tigers -165
 Reds 153 +130Dogs 7X's
 Red Sox 108
 Indians -186 Focus 7X's
 Athletics 142 +130Dogs 7X's
 Pirates 115
 Braves 109
 Phillies 195 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
bazooooka
bazooooka
Joined: Nov 21, 2016
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 185
April 29th, 2017 at 2:28:28 PM permalink
Steel, if you fade your focus picks heavy favs you may have something worthwhile.

I think your system is picking up on "public" mony favorites - thus they are over bet and under capped. I think you'll find that that -150 to -200 picks are more a function of public money than true odds.

Even then very best MLB team(s) will only win 60% for a season (i.e. Cubs). But often you'll find -150 (ie 60% implied) to -200 (66.6% implied) odds on teams that are not much better than coin flips.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
April 30th, 2017 at 6:39:31 AM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

Steel, if you fade your focus picks heavy favs you may have something worthwhile.

I think your system is picking up on "public" mony favorites - thus they are over bet and under capped. I think you'll find that that -150 to -200 picks are more a function of public money than true odds.

Even then very best MLB team(s) will only win 60% for a season (i.e. Cubs). But often you'll find -150 (ie 60% implied) to -200 (66.6% implied) odds on teams that are not much better than coin flips.



Thanks bazooooka, I appreciate the commentary. I'm going to review this and take a deep dive into why the Focus Picks have sucked.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
April 30th, 2017 at 7:12:55 AM permalink
Yesterday's Results:
 Rays -700
 Mets +1260
 Yankees +100
 Tigers -165
 Reds 0
 Red Sox -100
 Indians +700
 Athletics +994
 Pirates +115
 Braves +109
 Phillies -700

Yesterday's results: +1,613
+130dogs +1,554
Other dogs +124
Favorites -65
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total -3,339
+130dogs +4,884
Other dogs -1,041
Favorites -956
Focus Picks -6,226
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
Joined: Nov 30, 2011
  • Threads: 52
  • Posts: 4914
April 30th, 2017 at 7:14:26 AM permalink
Today's Picks:
 Orioles 108
 Rays -112 Focus 1X's
 Indians -157 7X's
 Mets -123 Focus 7X's
 Brewers -103
 Athletics 187 Focus 7X's
 Reds 155 +130Dogs 7X's
 Padres 125
 Rockies 130 +130Dogs 7X's
 Phillies 183 +130Dogs 7X's
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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