SuperBowl Least Likely Parlay Scenario?

As Ive mentioned before, Im in a separate pool with friends which is coming down to the last game. The pool operates just as if you were wagering at a sports book except you wager shares instead of real money. Only straight bets (both ml and ATS) and parlays are allowed. Everyone starts with the same amount of shares and you built up your bank week by week. The person with the most shares at the end of SuperBowl weekend wins the pot.

Im in the lead going into superbowl. I have roughly 40% more shares than the 2nd place individual. I am trying cover multiple scenario outcomes for the superbowl to ensure that I at least end up within the top 3 in order to get paid. I already covered the favorite / over scenario because I believe the guys that are in 2nd and 3rd will take that, as they got so darn luck throughout the playoffs hitting every favorite / over parlay when they were down to their last dollars..... sigh.

So I need to cover 2 more scenarios at a certain percentage risk and leave only a little percentage risk for the least like scenario. My initial thought would be Atlanta/Under scenario. Reason being if Atlanta is to win the game or cover they will need to score probably more than 30 points as I think NE will definitely put up near 30 on the soft Atlanta D... thus creating the over.

So, the poll question is: Which SuperBowl Outcome Scenario is LEAST Likely to occur in your opinion? Your opinions are much appreciated.

If you believe in an efficient market, then all 4 are equal. You can however get OPINIONS, and I will give you mine. Atlanta and over would be my least likely scenario. New England 27 Atlanta 20. My picks hit at around 49% lifetime.

Quote: SOOPOO

If you believe in an efficient market, then all 4 are equal. You can however get OPINIONS, and I will give you mine. Atlanta and over would be my least likely scenario. New England 27 Atlanta 20. My picks hit at around 49% lifetime.

Thanks.. Yea, I think NE / Under is a very good possibility. We will see how good their D really is this weekend!

Do you have enough room to hedge and withstand the second place player putting their whole nut on a Pats/Under parlay?

Quote: Ayecarumba

Do you have enough room to hedge and withstand the second place player putting their whole nut on a Pats/Under parlay?

Do you think the Pats / Under is going to come in final score?

Quote: WatchMeWin

Do you think the Pats / Under is going to come in final score?

Actually, no. However, my best weeks this season have been the opposite of what I thought would happen.

I know the feeling... lol

Wow... Wow... and Frickn WOW!! What a crazy comeback! As unlikely as it seemed, and as unfathomable to have happened... although the right bet seemed to be Atlanta / Under ... the outcome was another favorite / over. Inexplicably the trend continued and destiny intervened while giving Tom Brady his revenge and secured his place as GOAT. I won the pool, but it was no cakewalk for so!

Just goes to show in the world of betting sports... you never can predict certain outcomes. Even if you are on the right play, it is no guarantee, and vice versa. But as the Wiz says, ' It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet '

Congratulations WatchMeWin! Did you guess right on what the other contenders would do and protected your lead either way, or was there a chance your could have lost if the Falcons/Over came in?

How did you do? Where are you located Ayecarumba?

I didn't have a lot out there since Green Bay wasn't in it, but I got crushed when ATL rolled over and didn't cover. Oh well, it was exciting in a "watching a pack of wild dogs eat a gazelle" sort of way.

I'm in the Los Angeles area.

Pats -3 implied they would be ahead the entire game, with ATL catching up and failing to win by 3-7.

The Falcons were up 3 quarters of the game and tied the 4th.

Pats were a 3.4% dog to win at one point in the game, or +2941. I saw 20/1 on the WH app at one point.

Quote: djatc

Pats -3 implied they would be ahead the entire game, with ATL catching up and failing to win by 3-7.

The Falcons were up 3 quarters of the game and tied the 4th.

Pats were a 3.4% dog to win at one point in the game, or +2941. I saw 20/1 on the WH app at one point.

It was unreal. Just the score doesn't reflect the way ATL got run down. They let NE comeback from a historic 25 point deficit, not only to tie the game with two 2-pt conversions, but to win it in overtime... with the coin toss the only time an ATL offensive player was to set foot on the field in OT.

Better check the Gatorade. Did Belichick even get the shower?