Super Bowl LI
Westgate has the Patriots as 3-point favorites, with the Over/Under at 57.5.
Quote: ThatDonGuyApparently, it's never too early to put out a line on the Super Bowl.
Westgate has the Patriots as 3-point favorites, with the Over/Under at 57.5.
I'm an under guy but I can see the total number going up before game time.
Quote: BozI'm an under guy but I can see the total number going up before game time.
So, does that mean you can buy a low under and lock it in now, or does buying the under now mean you get whatever the o/u line is at game time? I think it has to be locked when you buy, but I can see them doing it the other way, too. Kind of like horse racing, where the odds change until post time.
-145 ml
O/u 58.5 at wh app
Quote: beachbumbabsSo, does that mean you can buy a low under and lock it in now, or does buying the under now mean you get whatever the o/u line is at game time? I think it has to be locked when you buy, but I can see them doing it the other way, too. Kind of like horse racing, where the odds change until post time.
No your ticket is at whatever line you buy in at. If I'm right, the under player would wait for the line to go up and the over player would buy now. Of course you can also get burnt this way if the line moves the other way.
Quote: beachbumbabsSo, does that mean you can buy a low under and lock it in now, or does buying the under now mean you get whatever the o/u line is at game time? I think it has to be locked when you buy, but I can see them doing it the other way, too. Kind of like horse racing, where the odds change until post time.
Horse betting works that way because all the betting money goes into a pool and is then divided up among the winners. Sports betting is straight up against the house.
ESPN lists one of Westgate's props as follows:
WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Thunder/Warriors -- Feb. 6); prop closes at 6:05 p.m. PT
KEVIN DURANT (OKC) POINTS -6.5 -110
PEYTON MANNING (DEN) COMPLETIONS +6.5 -110
If the bet appears this way at the Westgate, bet the house, the car, the farm, and the things (especially the things) on Manning - then, after the Thunder-Warriors game on 2/6, point out that the bet clearly says "Kevin Durant (OKC)" and no one named Kevin Durant plays for the Thunder as he plays for the Warriors now...
Even if Manning is hurt, his bet is +6.5.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuick - somebody head to the Westgate; if this is not a misprint on ESPN's part (which it probably is), this is the Ultra Mega Hyper Extreme AP Of The Decade.
ESPN lists one of Westgate's props as follows:
WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Thunder/Warriors -- Feb. 6); prop closes at 6:05 p.m. PT
KEVIN DURANT (OKC) POINTS -6.5 -110
PEYTON MANNING (DEN) COMPLETIONS +6.5 -110
If the bet appears this way at the Westgate, bet the house, the car, the farm, and the things (especially the things) on Manning - then, after the Thunder-Warriors game on 2/6, point out that the bet clearly says "Kevin Durant (OKC)" and no one named Kevin Durant plays for the Thunder as he plays for the Warriors now...
Even if Manning is hurt, his bet is +6.5.
This whole post just hurt my brain. Is this from last year?
Quote: kmumfThis whole post just hurt my brain. Is this from last year?
Why, yes - yes, it is. I should have noticed all of the references to "Carolina" and "Denver", shouldn't I? I thought that was one of those "alternative facts" you read about.
Serves me right for trying to do this on a Monday morning...
Still, you can't deny that KD won't score seven or more points more for the Thunder than Manning will have completions in the next Super Bow, now can you?
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuick - somebody head to the Westgate; if this is not a misprint on ESPN's part (which it probably is), this is the Ultra Mega Hyper Extreme AP Of The Decade.
ESPN lists one of Westgate's props as follows:
WHO WILL HAVE MORE:
**(Thunder/Warriors -- Feb. 6); prop closes at 6:05 p.m. PT
KEVIN DURANT (OKC) POINTS -6.5 -110
PEYTON MANNING (DEN) COMPLETIONS +6.5 -110
If the bet appears this way at the Westgate, bet the house, the car, the farm, and the things (especially the things) on Manning - then, after the Thunder-Warriors game on 2/6, point out that the bet clearly says "Kevin Durant (OKC)" and no one named Kevin Durant plays for the Thunder as he plays for the Warriors now...
Even if Manning is hurt, his bet is +6.5.
Lol, Peyton Manning is retired. This is definitely from last year.
Payton manning lost my roll
Last year was a time for dabs
Defense wins the Super bowl
Who among you is Fenwick?
Read all that in the nationwide song
Quote: djatc...Who among you is Fenwick?
hehe... "I am Fenwick!"
Opening lines:
Pats -3; O/U 59
In the 2016 regular season the Patriots scored 27.56 points per game and gave up 15.625
Atlanta scored 33.75 per game and gave up 25.375
My estimated points of points scored by the Patriots is the average of 27.56 and 25.375, which equals 26.47.
For the Falcons it is (33.75+15.625)/2 = 24.69.
So, the Patriots should win by 1.78 points and the total points scored should be 51.16.
The over/under on the actual game is 58 to 59. I've never seen my method be so off before. This makes the under look like a great bet. However, it makes me think that I'm missing something.
It also makes the Falcons +3 look like a good, but not great, bet. I hear the sharp action is on the Patriots. Again, makes me think I'm missing something.
Quote: WizardHere is my crude handicapping of the Super Bowl.
In the 2016 regular season the Patriots scored 27.56 points per game and gave up 15.625
Atlanta scored 33.75 per game and gave up 25.375
My estimated points of points scored by the Patriots is the average of 27.56 and 25.375, which equals 26.47.
For the Falcons it is (33.75+15.625)/2 = 24.69.
So, the Patriots should win by 1.78 points and the total points scored should be 51.16.
The over/under on the actual game is 58 to 59. I've never seen my method be so off before. This makes the under look like a great bet. However, it makes me think that I'm missing something.
It also makes the Falcons +3 look like a good, but not great, bet. I hear the sharp action is on the Patriots. Again, makes me think I'm missing something.
Hey Wizard, When you mention that you hear the sharp action is on the Patriots... Have you heard the the same sharps actions on previous games, and if so, how did they do? I am going back and forth with this game ... Im favoring Atlanta and the under... but I can make cases on every direction. Its really a tough one, in my opinion. Im looking for some good insight. If the sharps have been on point in the past, then I will lead toward their opinion.
Im in a pool with about 40 people. The pool is up to 40k. Ive been in first place for about a month as I took a large lead early... but the past two weeks allowed all of the favorite/over parlay guys to rack up huge points, and now it is a close race. I feel everyone will take the favorite and over again, so I could probably take those picks and preserve the win, as we will all win or lose together... but I still want to pick the winners.
Thanks!
Quote: WizardHere is my crude handicapping of the Super Bowl.
In the 2016 regular season the Patriots scored 27.56 points per game and gave up 15.625
Atlanta scored 33.75 per game and gave up 25.375
My estimated points of points scored by the Patriots is the average of 27.56 and 25.375, which equals 26.47.
For the Falcons it is (33.75+15.625)/2 = 24.69.
So, the Patriots should win by 1.78 points and the total points scored should be 51.16.
The over/under on the actual game is 58 to 59. I've never seen my method be so off before. This makes the under look like a great bet. However, it makes me think that I'm missing something.
It also makes the Falcons +3 look like a good, but not great, bet. I hear the sharp action is on the Patriots. Again, makes me think I'm missing something.
The Patriots were SHUT OUT against the Bills (I think!) without Tom Brady. I would not even count the 4 games played without him as Patriot football games.
Quote: WizardHere is my crude handicapping of the Super Bowl.
In the 2016 regular season the Patriots scored 27.56 points per game and gave up 15.625
Atlanta scored 33.75 per game and gave up 25.375
My estimated points of points scored by the Patriots is the average of 27.56 and 25.375, which equals 26.47.
For the Falcons it is (33.75+15.625)/2 = 24.69.
So, the Patriots should win by 1.78 points and the total points scored should be 51.16.
The over/under on the actual game is 58 to 59. I've never seen my method be so off before. This makes the under look like a great bet. However, it makes me think that I'm missing something.
It also makes the Falcons +3 look like a good, but not great, bet. I hear the sharp action is on the Patriots. Again, makes me think I'm missing something.
That's MY patented crude method! JK. It is pretty close to what I use, though, but I tend to go with point differential which would work like this:
The Patriots scored 27.56 points per game whereas Atlanta scored 33.75 per game, thus, Atlanta -6.19.
The Patriots allowed 15.625 per game whereas Atlanta allowed 25.375 per game, thus, New England -9.75
The difference of the differentials is 9.75 - 6.19 is New England -3.56 making New England (-3) a decent, but not great bet. If nothing else, I'm getting the Push if they win on by a Field Goal and that should be a loss for me, so that's pretty big. If I can get that Laying less than 110 to win 100, then all the better. CG Technology is or was -105 if that is still the case and 5Dimes was apparently NE -3 @ -101 at one point.
One could also make the argument that NE having the league's best defense in terms of Points Allowed also somewhat negates Atlanta's more powerful (points scored) offense thereby making New England the better bet still, but I don't necessarily subscribe to that argument. The reason I don't buy into that, even though, 'Defense wins championships,' is because one can argue that the Falcons have not gone up against defenses as strong as the Patriots typically, but then, it is also true that the Patriots have not gone up against offenses as strong as that of the Falcons.
If we look at the Falcons against the top fifteen scoring defenses in the league, they put up:
24, 23, 24, 28, 15, 38, 28, 36 (Playoffs Included) for an average of: 27 Points
With that, it is clear that they benefitted (in terms of average) by pounding on weaker defenses. Now, let's look at NE against the Top 15 scoring teams in terms of points scored:
21, 16, 16, 25, 17 (Playoffs Included) for an average of: 19 Points
By this metric, not surprisingly, Atlanta tends to perform somewhat (6.75 points) worse in scoring against good defenses and the Patriots (3.375) tend to allow better offenses, which they haven't played often, to score more.
While this would seem to benefit the UNDER greatly, let us not forget that New England absolutely punishes bad scoring defenses, which the Falcons certainly have, here is New England's scoring against the worst fifteen teams in the league in terms of points allowed with Brady in action:
33, 30, 22, 26, 41, 35 (Playoffs N/A) for an average of: 31.17 Points
When we combine what Atlanta does against GOOD defenses with what New England does to BAD defenses, then we end up with a game total of just over 58 points, making the UNDER not a very good bet given one has to lay 110 to win 100. Again, the sample sizes are limited, but we do know NE punishes awful defenses and NE has not faced an offense even remotely as powerful as that of ATL.
In other words, I think the line on Over/Under is pretty close to correct with no advantage on either side.
ATL is far and away the best offensive team in the league whereas New England allows the fewest points in the league, so neither team has played any other team even remotely like this. Atlanta's offense, however, seems to swing about 6.75 points to the bad against good defenses whereas the scoring allowed by New England seems to swing 3.375 points to the bad. While the sample size is limited, that seems to benefit NE by a little over three points.
Combined with the, 'Fundamental Point Differential,' it seems that playing against a bad defense boosts NE by about four points, playing against a good defense hurts ATL by nearly seven points AND playing against a good offense hurts NE by about 3.5 points. Combining these factors with the fundamental points differential seems to STRONGLY favor NE, especially when we consider what that defense has done against teams who have had to play from behind (meaning they are throwing a ton) and playing a more volatile style that should fundamentally lead to more scoring.
Even trying to be as objective as possible, NE -3 looks FANTASTIC, my only reservation is we have not seen that defense against many good offenses, and certainly, not against a scoring team such as ATL who has put up 5.1 more per game than the nearest competition and six per game more than the Pats.
Quote: WizardThanks for your comments. I was downtown this afternoon thinking about betting the Falcons at the Golden Nugget, who had the best lines for them in Vegas. As I was staring at the board I saw a couple professional sports bettors down there I have a lot of respect for. I'm not sure I should say who. Both of them liked the Patriots and the under. I'm still hesitant to bet the Patriots but I definitely like the under.
You're welcome, it's an interesting subject. I think what makes it the most interesting game of the year is not just that it is the Big Game, but also because it is the game for which we have the most data possible from that season. I wouldn't mention any professional sports bettors by name unless they gave explicit permission to do so, especially since it could hurt them if mentioning what they are betting might cause more people to bet what they are betting and the line ends up getting moved off of what they like and might decide to get more money on, eventually.
I certainly like the Patriots more than the Under, in fact, based on my metric, I would only bet the UNDER 59 if I was getting 100% Even Money on it. In fact, I'm not even convinced I like the UNDER that much.
If you like the UNDER, I think that is an even more compelling reason to like NE -3. My reasoning behind that is that we know NE tears weak defenses apart. Tearing weak defenses apart is something Brady has done his entire career. The only real exception this year was the game @ NYJ in which the Patriots won 22-17, and that took the Jets playing what I believe was the best game they've played all year on both sides of the ball, particularly with respect to the way the held NE on Third Down. The Jets would not fare so well in NE when Brady and company hung 41 points on them, of course.
Anyway, if the game is going to go UNDER 59, I think the most likely reason for that to happen is because the defense of NE by and large holds the offense of ATL more or less in check. While possible, it is difficult to imagine that NE posts fewer than 28 points against a team that allowed 24.8 per game throughout the regular season. Granted, ATL has played some of the best scoring teams in the league this year, but ATL-NO-NE are 1-2-3 in that regard and ATL allowed NO to post up 32 points in each game in which they played one another during the season.
For reasons stated in this post and my previous post, I submit that NE should score 30 or more points in this game. If that is the case, and you like the UNDER 59, then NE winning by more than three is the most conceivable (though certainly not only) way for that to happen.
Quote: Mission146The Patriots appear to be -3 +102 at P.I&N#N!A8C0L7E right now. I'd jump on that while it lasts if you can access it.
That's a good bet
I think the Pats are so juiced up every week that you'll never find a good price on them, this is a steal. I did bet them when Brady was out and got even money on one week.
Quote: djatc
That's a good bet
I think the Pats are so juiced up every week that you'll never find a good price on them, this is a steal. I did bet them when Brady was out and got even money on one week.
I hope it wasn't Week 4!
Quote: Mission146The Patriots appear to be -3 +102 at P.I&N#N!A8C0L7E right now. I'd jump on that while it lasts if you can access it.
I'm not able to access that. Strange how much range there is in the line this Super Bowl.
Quote: WizardQuote: Mission146The Patriots appear to be -3 +102 at P.I&N#N!A8C0L7E right now. I'd jump on that while it lasts if you can access it.
I'm not able to access that. Strange how much range there is in the line this Super Bowl.
Do you know if it is still -105 at the CG Tech places?
Also, FiveDimes had it at -101 last night, but it appears to have been changed to -105.
I don't know if I am that surprised by the range this year. As I mentioned before, given the caliber (not all that good) of offenses that NE has faced, I think there is a lot of uncertainty going into this one.
Quote: ThatDonGuyWhy, yes - yes, it is. I should have noticed all of the references to "Carolina" and "Denver", shouldn't I? I thought that was one of those "alternative facts" you read about.
Serves me right for trying to do this on a Monday morning...
However, I did catch one for 2017, although it's not exactly an AP:
Go to the Fremont, and bet on the field to be the MVP. If Tom Brady wins, show them the sheet and claim that nobody named on it was named MVP; certainly not "Tom Brad."
Quote: WizardThe over/under on the actual game is 58 to 59. I've never seen my method be so off before. This makes the under look like a great bet. However, it makes me think that I'm missing something.
I've always been under the impression the standard "over/under rules" (when handicapping) didn't apply when it came to the Super Bowl.
I do know many games have gone WAY over the total, and I suspect this is why the line is slightly inflated, so yes, the Under is probably the play.
I don't have immediate access to the over/under of each Super Bowl (I suppose they are available online somewhere) but here's a list of the total points scored in each of the past 14 Super Bowls:
69, 61, 45, 31, 46, 31, 50, 48, 56, 38, 65, 51, 52, 34
Looking at these totals, I suspect at least half of these games did go over.
Note that the Super Bowl often has a way of bringing out the best in a team.
By that I mean, when the Cowboys beat the Bills 52 to 17 in the Super Bowl, way back in 1993, the Cowboys hadn't scored 52 points in a game all year long.
Two years later when the 49ers beat the Chargers 49 to 26 in Super Bowl XXIX, the 49ers hadn't scored 49 all year long. (Edit: Correction. They scored 50 against the Falcons in Week 14.)
Going back even further, in Super Bowl XXIV, the 49ers scored 55 points against the Broncos, and that easily was more points than they scored all year.
When the Bucs beat the Raiders 48 to 21, that was the most points the Bucs had scored all year long.
When Seattle scored 43 in their Super Bowl victory against the Broncos a few years ago, that nearly matched their season high total.
The Super Bowl can be a different beast altogether. I do think "normal" handicapping rules don't apply. (But if you don't have any "new rules" all you can go with are your "standard rules.") :)
Quote: Mission146You're welcome, it's an interesting subject. I think what makes it the most interesting game of the year is not just that it is the Big Game, but also because it is the game for which we have the most data possible from that season. I wouldn't mention any professional sports bettors by name unless they gave explicit permission to do so, especially since it could hurt them if mentioning what they are betting might cause more people to bet what they are betting and the line ends up getting moved off of what they like and might decide to get more money on, eventually.
I certainly like the Patriots more than the Under, in fact, based on my metric, I would only bet the UNDER 59 if I was getting 100% Even Money on it. In fact, I'm not even convinced I like the UNDER that much.
If you like the UNDER, I think that is an even more compelling reason to like NE -3. My reasoning behind that is that we know NE tears weak defenses apart. Tearing weak defenses apart is something Brady has done his entire career. The only real exception this year was the game @ NYJ in which the Patriots won 22-17, and that took the Jets playing what I believe was the best game they've played all year on both sides of the ball, particularly with respect to the way the held NE on Third Down. The Jets would not fare so well in NE when Brady and company hung 41 points on them, of course.
Anyway, if the game is going to go UNDER 59, I think the most likely reason for that to happen is because the defense of NE by and large holds the offense of ATL more or less in check. While possible, it is difficult to imagine that NE posts fewer than 28 points against a team that allowed 24.8 per game throughout the regular season. Granted, ATL has played some of the best scoring teams in the league this year, but ATL-NO-NE are 1-2-3 in that regard and ATL allowed NO to post up 32 points in each game in which they played one another during the season.
For reasons stated in this post and my previous post, I submit that NE should score 30 or more points in this game. If that is the case, and you like the UNDER 59, then NE winning by more than three is the most conceivable (though certainly not only) way for that to happen.
Mission, all of your posts regarding the superbowl and your analysis have been spot on. Thank you for your posts. It is evident that you put great thought into it. I have been on both Atlanta and New England pretty much every week as both teams were always my 'go to' teams who rarely disappointed. I think most of the betting world had done the same. Now we are face with the dilemma of having to pick one or the other....sigh Ive watched the Falcons offense absolutely dominate every defense they have play except the Eagles. Ive also watched other teams move the ball without difficulty against the Falcons Defense. Ive watched New England's offense drive easily against other teams, while their defense was absolutely dominant against everyone..although fairly weak teams.. Seattle and Buffalo put up 31 and 25 against them.
So, the ultimate question, what gives? I think I found my answer. I am going to go with history here. The last time a first ranked offense played a first ranked defense was Superbowl 37. Tampa Bay (No 1 Defense) destroyed Oakland (No 1 Offense) 48-21 which ironically was an over game since the Defensive team won. Additionally, the past few weeks have seen just about every favorite and over come in winners. I venture to guess that the trend wont stop here....I didn't think just about all of the favorites and overs would keep winning game after game after game throughout the playoffs, but they did! So, with the aforementioned rationale, Im going Pats and over. I hate that high 58 number, but let history continue to repeat.
I think the key to this game and deciding factor will be whichever team can put more pressure on the other team's qb.
Quote: WatchMeWin
Mission, all of your posts regarding the superbowl and your analysis have been spot on. Thank you for your posts. It is evident that you put great thought into it. I have been on both Atlanta and New England pretty much every week as both teams were always my 'go to' teams who rarely disappointed. I think most of the betting world had done the same. Now we are face with the dilemma of having to pick one or the other....sigh Ive watched the Falcons offense absolutely dominate every defense they have play except the Eagles. Ive also watched other teams move the ball without difficulty against the Falcons Defense. Ive watched New England's offense drive easily against other teams, while their defense was absolutely dominant against everyone..although fairly weak teams.. Seattle and Buffalo put up 31 and 25 against them.
Thank you for the compliment! I actually have an in-depth article with further analysis coming out anytime now on LCB that I will be sure to post a link to here. I share your concerns about the games against SEA (sixth) and BUF (tenth) which are the only two Top 10 teams in total scoring they played. Granted, they also held BUF to sixteen in Week 4 when the Patriots were forced to play without an offense. Either way, they have played ZERO teams with an offense of Atlanta's caliber, and have mixed results in the few games they have played against borderline good offenses.
Quote:So, the ultimate question, what gives? I think I found my answer. I am going to go with history here. The last time a first ranked offense played a first ranked defense was Superbowl 37. Tampa Bay (No 1 Defense) destroyed Oakland (No 1 Offense) 48-21 which ironically was an over game since the Defensive team won. Additionally, the past few weeks have seen just about every favorite and over come in winners. I venture to guess that the trend wont stop here....I didn't think just about all of the favorites and overs would keep winning game after game after game throughout the playoffs, but they did! So, with the aforementioned rationale, Im going Pats and over. I hate that high 58 number, but let history continue to repeat.
I think the key to this game and deciding factor will be whichever team can put more pressure on the other team's qb.
It is also nearly the exact same thing as DEN v. CAR last year, though DEN was not #1 in Opponent Points Allowed, but rather, number four. That game did go Under, but I don't think anyone really expected (or had any reason to believe) that Denver would put a ton. We have no reason to expect otherwise with the ATL/NE matchup, (and let's not forget that Carolina was 6th in Opponent Points Allowed last year with 19.5 compared to 23rd ATL with 23.8 this year) there's really absolutely no reason to believe NE won't hang 30+ on them.
I understand your trends on, 'Favorite/Over,' as that has been the story of the Playoffs, but I tend not to put too much faith in short term trends in what I consider a limited sample size. As you will see in my LCB analysis, my conclusion is Patriots, Lay Three Points, 59 TOTAL is about as solid as the line could be.
In the past, the Under was a slightly better than 50% pick, but these playoffs have been a scorefest. Both teams can, and will put up points through the air on each other, as each defense has to respect their opponent's ground game. Barring key injuries, I don't expect the trend to stop, and am expecting a high total.
(stops poking bear..)
Quote: WatchMeWinHigh scoring game goes over.
I hope you're wrong. Just bet $100 with BBB on under 58.5.
Quote: WizardI hope you're wrong. Just bet $100 with BBB on under 58.5.
Ive been going back and forth every other day on the total and side... Im set on the Patriots winning as I think Belichick will figure out how to stop Matty Ice just enough with 2 weeks prep. Plus the experience of the Pats and the fact that they can put up points against a soft Falcons Defense. As far as the total goes, Ive been wrong the past two weeks thinking that games cant all keep going over.. so Im not fighting it anymore.... plus Im pretty sure everyone in my pool with be taking the fav/over, so I am protecting against their bet.. if they win , I win.. If they lose, I still win since Im ahead currently. If they go Falcons and and Falcons win, then oh well... game well played.
Quote: WizardI just got Patriots money line at -141 at Cantor.
There's been some Falcons +3 -105. One (or both) must be +EV. I'm on Atlanta only because I haven't been anywhere that had better than -150 yet.
Quote: WatchMeWinWhich way to you guys think the line will move throughout the week? Does the action look like pats may go to 3.5 or 2.5 or stay the same? Same with total.. think we will see 59 or back to 58 ?
Hard to say, Treasure Island seems to be giving Odds at NE -3.5, but currently at +110, that's down from the high point of +120. Treasure Island also seems to have the total at 59.5 -110, either side.
In the meantime, P!nn@c!e has NE -3 @ +104 for anyone who can access that. That's a phenomenal bet, if you can. It was as high as +109. Sportsbook.ag seems to currently be offering ATL +3 at Even Money, so if you can access both of those sites, there's a little arbitrage and pull for NE. TopBet.com also appears to have ATL +3 at Even Money.
This post should not be construed as an endorsement of those sports betting sites which I have never bet at and know little to nothing about.
Either way, I don't think the line is going to come down from 59, but I don't expect it to go any higher. It's floated, briefly, to 59.5 at some places and 58.5 at others, but at most or all of the major Nevada books, it's clung pretty tenaciously to 59. I also don't see the line moving off of three in the Nevada books, but could be wrong. I just think it would have done it by now.
My advice is if you want to bet Atlanta or the under, wait until the last minute. Otherwise, get your bet in ASAP.
(i) Atlanta+3 10/11 (-109) ; NE -3 21/20 (+105)
(ii) NE 6/4 (-150) ; Atlanta 13/10 (+130)
(iii) 58.5 Over Ev Under 10/11 (-109)
Quote: WizardI think the last minute square action will pour in on the Patriots and the Over. I've never once met a Falcons fan.
My advice is if you want to bet Atlanta or the under, wait until the last minute. Otherwise, get your bet in ASAP.
I would hate to be on the strip, or a sportsbook this weekend.... I got the WH app I think I'll hammer the under right before game time. Pats -3 -110 however I will put this in with the quickness. Just had no time to get around to it, but definitely will today.
Quote: djatcI would hate to be on the strip, or a sportsbook this weekend.....
It won't be that bad. Every book should have every window open. Lines should only be about five minutes long.
Quote: WizardIt won't be that bad. Every book should have every window open. Lines should only be about five minutes long.
You're severely underestimating the idiots who take forever at a window making a $10 bet.
You heard it here first.
Here is my full analysis of the Big Game published as an Editorial on LCB:
http://www.latestsportsbonuses.com/editorials/793/the-big-game-nfl-2017/
If you guys like me, you'll read it! JK
