Houston vs. New England Moneyline

The moneyline is currently +1500 (and you can get +16 points if you want to take their side). If not +1500, how much would you need before you would jump in... or, how much could they lower the payout and still get your action?

Houston did have the best overall defense in the NFL this season...

Plus 1500 is worth a few bucks any day in the NFL where anything can happen.... although HIGHLY unlikely against NE , who beat them 27-0 the first time around with a back up qb. Its like buying a lottery ticket, just like the fire bet, put a few bucks out there and hope for a logshot, but dont expect it to win. Write it off once you make the wager... then , if it hits, HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Taking the Seahawks money line and Houston points is paying slightly better than 5 for 1.

new england 38 houston 3

The Patriots beat them badly in week 3 but the Texans have the NFLs best defense. Great defenses usually have a lot of pride. If they can get rolling strong early they may cause the Patriots problems especially if they can sack Brady. Not saying they'll win but I wouldn't be greatly surprised by a surprise. Osweiler is no Brady but he's a ballplayer. In the first game today Atlanta is favored by 5 and QB Matt Ryan is just 1-4 lifetime in playoff games. He's got a monkey on his back.

The season will end for one team, they both will burn every asset they have to win. Success is a one-point victory. The Patriots have no interest in covering the spread, especially if to do so increases risk or difficulty for the next game. I say Patriots SU not ATS, so I think the best bet is Huston loses by less than the spread. Yes, I know the thread title has “moneyline,” but I think the spread is a better bet this time.

Quote: Ayecarumba

The moneyline is currently +1500 (and you can get +16 points if you want to take their side). If not +1500, how much would you need before you would jump in... or, how much could they lower the payout and still get your action?

Houston did have the best overall defense in the NFL this season...

I was going to put a little wager on +1500 but the best moneyline I see now is +1000. No bet for me.

Quote: DRich

I was going to put a little wager on +1500 but the best moneyline I see now is +1000. No bet for me.

Crazy, Canter has NE -2000 HOU +1000. Nice spread for them.

My question is. will there be big NE bets on a game like this or is it just too high of Risk/ Return?

-2000? That is a sure thing...like wagering on no safety in the Super Bowl!

Quote: Johnzimbo

-2000? That is a sure thing...like wagering on no safety in the Super Bowl!

As much as it seems like you could and should be able to put free money in your pocket taking NE, Im sure there are instances in history that have had unimaginable upset victories occur (I cant think of any off the top of my head other than the 69 Jets where colts were 18pt favorite., Im sure others here have some more stats). I wouldn't risk the 2000 to win 100 ratio. Not worth it. Maybe risk 20k to win 1k... ok, i like it! ha

Last year I was up pretty big on a weekend of sports wagering. Then in a 4pm game, Arizona was a ml fav -350 against the Rams. Arizona was dominant that year . They were at home. I figured it would be an easy win to take the ml since I didnt want to give up pts. I was up over 10 for the weekend, so I put 5k on the Cardinals to win ml. What a stupid frickn inexplicable idiotic move that was. I dont know what go into me. Well, you guessed it, the Rams won outright. Now I had to pay out 5k instead of collect 10k. Live and learn.

That is like in my early years of playing craps... for about 10 years, I would never hit and run. I would stay on the craps table and try to make tons of money buy staying on shooters the entire roll and press. Finally, after 10 fricken years and well into 6 figures later, I figured out to just hit a couple of numbers and walk. It has been such a reversal in my bottom line... and now I win quite more often than I lose. In and out is the only way... and that is not even that easy. Live and learn.

Take SEA +6

guaranteed to win

or at least you'll have fun

in the chance it doesn't win, then double up on Pats -16

then stay close to the nearest bridge

Pinnacle is +828, -1100. If we were to believe those represented true odds, betting full Kelly we should bet 4.5% of our bankroll on the Texans +1500. At +1000 full Kelly would be 1.5%. Probably shouldn't assume Texans have a better than 10% chance just based on one number, but the Texans money line is a good bet at most numbers you'll find in Las Vegas. Except for one reason not to . . .

There are a few places you can parlay the points with the total. That is a much bigger edge. Take the 16. Everyone is pointing to the early season game where the Patriots won by 28 with a third string QB. But the Patriots were also only one point favorites. Brady ain't worth 15 points. And if you really want to argue that the line was wrong, you'll only have a case if you were making multiple max bets before the start. If you weren't doing that, it means you think 1 point was a good number. And just a few weeks ago Patriots were laying the same exact number against one of the worst teams in the league. Texans would be six point favorites against the Jets. Parlay +16.5 and under 44.5 if you find yourself at one of the places that would allow it. Anyone know how to estimate an edge on that. Or how about. . .

One place was even taking first half side and total parlays in the first few hours the lines went up: +10 and under 22.5. Be a while before we find a better bet than that this year

Anyone who laid NE -2000 is sweating a lot more than they ever thought they would have to.

Houston plus 15 1/2 is looking pretty good, as well.

This year much different than last. All home teams are winning and winning huge in both rounds.

Shed a tear for the sportsbooks for losing on all the favorites and teasers coming in....

wait a minute I have no tears

Quote: djatc

Shed a tear for the sportsbooks for losing on all the favorites and teasers coming in....

wait a minute I have no tears

Just like you should bet black when 6 Reds come in, you should put it all on the Packers today. The dogs are "due".

but isnt every event random and independent of the previous?

Quote: Boz

Just like you should bet black when 6 Reds come in, you should put it all on the Packers today. The dogs are "due".

I liked the packers until Jordy Nelson was declared injured. This is a BIG problem for the Pack! He was a huge part of their success.

Well I hope the Packers lose so the steelers can be due team

Quote: billryan

Houston plus 15 1/2 is looking pretty good, as well.

Really? (sorry...)

How horrible must you feel if you are on the hook to BO (not the ex prez) for like 18 million a year for the next 3 years. What a waste of a truly great D.