Quote:TomGWinning 55% against the spread on -110 lines should lead to the bankroll multiplying 15 times for every 1000 bets, assuming no limits, according to the Kelly Criterion calculator I use. Which means if we start with $20,000 it would be over $300,000 after 1000 bets. And close to $5 million after another 1000. Given the number of games available in all sports, professional and college, sides, totals, first-half, props, etc., it shouldn't be hard to find a few bets per day to get you to that $5 million in only a few years.

Even if we do look at limit betting, it would take until a 55% winner had $1 million before he reached limits on NFL sides.

If someone hasn't yet won millions from picking winners in 55% of games they haven't been doing it very long

I think part of the problem(?) is IF you're able to pull off a 55%+ winrate in sports betting the -110 lines, you're not going to be making a significant amount of bets, since most offered lines likely won't meet the 55%+ confidence criteria. And if you're that good with it, I'd think you'd be specializing in a specific sport, like the NFL. It's not like a good NFL bettor can automatically win 55%+ at basketball and baseball and golf and boxing and everything else.

I guess your best chance is either college football, any basketball or any baseball, since there are so many games. But NFL, I'd say no way Jose, no way can you get that many bets in.

Quote:TomGWinning 55% against the spread on -110 lines should lead to the bankroll multiplying 15 times for every 1000 bets, assuming no limits, according to the Kelly Criterion calculator I use. Which means if we start with $20,000 it would be over $300,000 after 1000 bets. And close to $5 million after another 1000. Given the number of games available in all sports, professional and college, sides, totals, first-half, props, etc., it shouldn't be hard to find a few bets per day to get you to that $5 million in only a few years.

Even if we do look at limit betting, it would take until a 55% winner had $1 million before he reached limits on NFL sides.

If someone hasn't yet won millions from picking winners in 55% of games they haven't been doing it very long

5.5% of your bankroll per the Kelly Criterion.Quote:bazooookaWhat would be safe bet if one had 100k bankroll and an assumed 55% ability to pick spread winners? Would 3% per bet (i.e. 3k) be too aggressive?

Always gets harder as season progresses since talent becomes more prevalent and the odds react.

Quote:Ace5.5% of your bankroll per the Kelly Criterion.

My math says 0.05/1.091475 ~ 4.58% of BR.

Wager = Edge/Variance * BR

EV = 100*0.55 - 110*0.45 = $5.5 per $110 wagered

Edge = 5.5 / 110 = 0.05 = 5%

Var = 1.091475 (https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation-calculator.html)

BR = 100k

Wager = (0.05/1.091475) * 100000 = $4580....although $4400 would make more sense, as that would pay an even $4000.

But IMO, you shouldn't play full kelly, as it's very volatile and you'd have to continuously change your bets around. 1/2 kelly makes the most sense, to me. You also knock your ROR way down (from 13.5% to 1-2%).

The Kelly formula is simply your advantage divided by the payoff amount (expressed as "to 1").Quote:RSMy math says 0.05/1.091475 ~ 4.58% of BR.

Wager = Edge/Variance * BR

EV = 100*0.55 - 110*0.45 = $5.5 per $110 wagered

Edge = 5.5 / 110 = 0.05 = 5%

Var = 1.091475 ml)

BR = 100k

5% / (10/11) = 5.5%.

Incidentally the variance is .55 x .45 x (21/11)^2 = 0.902.