RS
RS
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December 4th, 2016 at 1:29:52 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

Winning 55% against the spread on -110 lines should lead to the bankroll multiplying 15 times for every 1000 bets, assuming no limits, according to the Kelly Criterion calculator I use. Which means if we start with $20,000 it would be over $300,000 after 1000 bets. And close to $5 million after another 1000. Given the number of games available in all sports, professional and college, sides, totals, first-half, props, etc., it shouldn't be hard to find a few bets per day to get you to that $5 million in only a few years.

Even if we do look at limit betting, it would take until a 55% winner had $1 million before he reached limits on NFL sides.

If someone hasn't yet won millions from picking winners in 55% of games they haven't been doing it very long



I think part of the problem(?) is IF you're able to pull off a 55%+ winrate in sports betting the -110 lines, you're not going to be making a significant amount of bets, since most offered lines likely won't meet the 55%+ confidence criteria. And if you're that good with it, I'd think you'd be specializing in a specific sport, like the NFL. It's not like a good NFL bettor can automatically win 55%+ at basketball and baseball and golf and boxing and everything else.

I guess your best chance is either college football, any basketball or any baseball, since there are so many games. But NFL, I'd say no way Jose, no way can you get that many bets in.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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December 4th, 2016 at 1:46:12 PM permalink
Thank you to everyone for the great responses. Seeing the numbers behind everything really helped. Someone that can do 60% over a smaller sample might have skill but that doesn't mean that will continue over a larger sample (i.e. skilled handicapping can't be assumed across sports and seasons). And yes I would question why anyone who can do 53-55% over thousands of picks would sell or promote such a thing since surely making bets would be more lucrative. The fact that handicapping skill is transient and there is such huge variance really would make it hard to tail someone's picks versus coming up one's own. I do think data scientists likely are the ones with the real edge in this game. But it is indeed fun to try to beat the book on a handful of NFL games. To try to do it across sports and thousands of picks is almost a sure path to ruin for all but the most astute bettors.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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December 4th, 2016 at 7:31:14 PM permalink
I'd think that if one was betting 20K a game they'd have to have a HUGE bankroll to taken into account variance. What would be safe bet if one had 100k bankroll and an assumed 55% ability to pick spread winners? Would 3% per bet (i.e. 3k) be too aggressive? 3k a week net sounds good if come can lay a few bets per day or so? Those that can handicap college Bball might be able to pull this off.


Quote: TomG

Winning 55% against the spread on -110 lines should lead to the bankroll multiplying 15 times for every 1000 bets, assuming no limits, according to the Kelly Criterion calculator I use. Which means if we start with $20,000 it would be over $300,000 after 1000 bets. And close to $5 million after another 1000. Given the number of games available in all sports, professional and college, sides, totals, first-half, props, etc., it shouldn't be hard to find a few bets per day to get you to that $5 million in only a few years.

Even if we do look at limit betting, it would take until a 55% winner had $1 million before he reached limits on NFL sides.

If someone hasn't yet won millions from picking winners in 55% of games they haven't been doing it very long

Ace
Ace
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May 4th, 2017 at 9:43:03 PM permalink
Quote: bazooooka

What would be safe bet if one had 100k bankroll and an assumed 55% ability to pick spread winners? Would 3% per bet (i.e. 3k) be too aggressive?

5.5% of your bankroll per the Kelly Criterion.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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May 4th, 2017 at 11:10:31 PM permalink
I likely have been under betting then. I've down close to 55% over hundreds of picks but I doubt 55% is my true skill level. Harder to do know that regular season NBA is over. MLB I like to play underdogs and try to hit near 40% and often play the 150-200 dogs.
Always gets harder as season progresses since talent becomes more prevalent and the odds react.
RS
RS
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May 5th, 2017 at 2:17:06 AM permalink
Quote: Ace

5.5% of your bankroll per the Kelly Criterion.


My math says 0.05/1.091475 ~ 4.58% of BR.

Wager = Edge/Variance * BR

EV = 100*0.55 - 110*0.45 = $5.5 per $110 wagered
Edge = 5.5 / 110 = 0.05 = 5%
Var = 1.091475 (https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation-calculator.html)
BR = 100k

Wager = (0.05/1.091475) * 100000 = $4580....although $4400 would make more sense, as that would pay an even $4000.


But IMO, you shouldn't play full kelly, as it's very volatile and you'd have to continuously change your bets around. 1/2 kelly makes the most sense, to me. You also knock your ROR way down (from 13.5% to 1-2%).
Ace
Ace
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May 5th, 2017 at 7:16:16 AM permalink
Quote: RS

My math says 0.05/1.091475 ~ 4.58% of BR.

Wager = Edge/Variance * BR

EV = 100*0.55 - 110*0.45 = $5.5 per $110 wagered
Edge = 5.5 / 110 = 0.05 = 5%
Var = 1.091475 ml)
BR = 100k

The Kelly formula is simply your advantage divided by the payoff amount (expressed as "to 1").

5% / (10/11) = 5.5%.

Incidentally the variance is .55 x .45 x (21/11)^2 = 0.902.
bazooooka
bazooooka
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May 5th, 2017 at 6:19:07 PM permalink
Best cappers I know go 2% to 3% per bet and hit between 53% to 57%. Problem is whenever these guys scale up and try to do 1000 picks instead of a few hundred then hit rates drop toward 50%. I think one can beat the house but only if they are very careful to pick their spots and they can bet all sports. That kind of capper can just play one ot two per day and hopefully after a year. They have made 20-40 units on 500 picks. Doesn't add up too much unless you play high limits. 200 dollar players playing 10 games a day always will get ground to dust. But 2000 dollar players can make some nice side change. But those that can swing that big don't normally need side income. Thus its rare to find skilled players who can afford to play online book max or higher in town.

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