Week Five Football

First time in about six years looked much into betting football on Tuesday. Takes a lot of time for not much value, but it is somewhat relaxing knowing the line isn't going to move while looking through the entire board. Wasn't as much of a complete waste as I remember:

Connecticut +28.5
Minnesota +3.5
W Michigan -3
Air Force -7
NC State -10
Browns +8.5
Raiders +3.5
Rams +8.5
Rams under 43.5
(might be some correlation on those last two, so put it into a few three team parlays with some break even games: S Alabam +20, UCF +4.5, etc. . . )

8-1 in the strongest games, 2-0 in added games. Good week

After doing so well last week felt I should continue looking at Tuesday lines. In order from strongest to weakest:

San Diego under 51
Rutgers +28.5
NC State -2
Oregon +9
Fresno State +10
North Texas +10.5
Atlanta over 47
Redskins under 45.5
New England under 47

Expect the Patriots game total to go up, so didn't put much on it yet, even though it is a good bet. There were other good bets: Northern Illinois +20, Georgia State -10, but had too much money tied up in tickets and not enough in cash, so couldn't be them. There's still four more days

Nice work last week. Are you betting these any particular place (BOL maybe?), or just best available?

Bet them mostly at Station's 2009-10. Last week it was just at the casino closest to my house, not the best place. This week tried to maximize value and bet them all at -105 (only a couple small straight bets at -110; if anyone doesn't know where to do that, it's at Las Vegas Blvd. and Lake Mead). For almost all of us, one of the few ways to earn money is only betting lines that are the best available.

Quote: TomG

Bet them mostly at Station's 2009-10. Last week it was just at the casino closest to my house, not the best place. This week tried to maximize value and bet them all at -105 (only a couple small straight bets at -110; if anyone doesn't know where to do that, it's at Las Vegas Blvd. and Lake Mead). For almost all of us, one of the few ways to earn money is only betting lines that are the best available.

Virgin River now has -105 all the time on both sides and totals.

Quote: DRich

Virgin River now has -105 all the time on both sides and totals.

Yea but you have to go Mesquite.......and most that go there never leave.

Anyone have opinions/lines on the Buccaneers/Panthers game? Bovada doesn't have any lines or O/U for it but I was curious to peek at those before I put my picks in at a work pool.

The UCONN line is 2 1/2 / wonder I wonder if the original poster wanted to wager on that or not

Quote: Romes

Anyone have opinions/lines on the Buccaneers/Panthers game? Bovada doesn't have any lines or O/U for it but I was curious to peek at those before I put my picks in at a work pool.

Here's my opinion for what it's worth, and it doesn't matter who's QB for Panthers. TB has a terrible pass defense and turns the ball over. Give the points, take the Panthers, all day long...

Always bet against the Florida team.

Quote: Romes

Anyone have opinions/lines on the Buccaneers/Panthers game? Bovada doesn't have any lines or O/U for it but I was curious to peek at those before I put my picks in at a work pool.

The line before last week was Carolina -7.5. A few places had Carolina -3 with Newton's status unknown and there was even a 40 total somewhere. There will always be a few books willing to hang a bad number so long as it means they can stand out from the others. Limits were probably $500 / $250. If you're only picking just go with the favorite anytime you have questions. If picking against the spread in a pool go with whichever team you think will be least popular.

There was some Cleveland +11 yesterday. If there was no excitement about Brady's return the line would be 9 (can also parlay 1h +7 and under 23.5)

Washington State +7.5
Illinois -10
Texans 1h under 20.5

Tried it for a couple weeks and can't see much value on betting Tuesday lines in Las Vegas. The market needs time to create value. May continue just because building a bigger portfolio should mean bigger profits. But most bets will come on the weekend:

Friday: round robin as many games as I can at -105 on parlays: five games at $10 every three ways or six games at $5 every three ways is $100 each. Only have to go to the window a few times to get as much money down as I want

Saturday: parlay cards and bigger straight bets; can get two points better than market price on a lot of college unders in Las Vegas

Quote: TomG

San Diego under 51
Rutgers +28.5
NC State -2
Oregon +9
Fresno State +10
North Texas +10.5
Atlanta over 47
Redskins under 45.5
New England under 47

Somehow got lucky enough to go 5-4 despite not much value (still lost money because they were all in parlays; and of course the next two games I would have parlayed with them went 2-0. . . ). It was nice to earn some money while learning the lesson that value in Las Vegas just isn't there early in the week. Going to wait until Friday most weeks, but had a rare Thursday evening completely free. Lots of good value around:

Ohio -6.5
Louisiana Tech -14
USC -9
Patriots over 47
Bills over 43.5
Lions under 44
Raiders under 47
Titans under 44
Jets +8

Had to stop at two places to get the best possible numbers, -105 on six of those, -110 on the other three. There's Dolphins +7.5 and Bengals +9 everywhere which are also a good bets

We'll call it 13-5 in main picks and 4-0 in added games. Not bad considering the target is only 52-54%

Off the board this week is almost as strong as parlay cards*. Has it always been like this or have I just been missing it because I've been looking for other plays?

Maryland -6.5
Mid Tennessee State -2
Utah -7
Syracuse over 67
Kansas State under 59
and more Ohio -6.5

all at -105

(* when looking at 3- and 4- team parlays. The cards highest EV is obviously 7 to 10 teams, which is very hard to beat (but every week is a likely loser; -$160 last week))

24-20 in every game listed here so far.

As I said before there isn't much value betting early lines in Las Vegas. But I don't like having so much money in tied up in tickets and I just didn't care to stop myself when I went to cash them in:

Ball State -3
Northern Illinois -21
Virginia Tech -5.5
49ers under 48
Titans under 48.5
Browns +10
Rams under 44
Lions over 48.5
Auburn -9

Only week I can remember finding more value off the board than from parlay cards

Strongest from this afternoon:
Boise St 1h -17 (and -17.5)
Texas State +32
Florida State -5
Memphis -2.5
Chargers under 48

If those five win should be a very nice week. Of course still only a 3-4% edge, which means value of maybe $50 after putting in $2000 worth of parlays.

other good ones added to those games
Notre Dame -6.5
Cal under 77.5
Lions over 41
Jets under 44
Raiders pick
49ers +4

28-24 overall in games listed in here.