Horseracing - Breeders' Cup 2016

Horseracing - Breeders' Cup 2016 @ Santa Anita - Arcadia, CA - Nov 4-5, 2016.

After watching a great day of racing (@ Parx) I decided to start this discussion thread. Songbird (filly) may be the best 3 year old in the country. She romped in the Cotillion Stakes @ Parx. Her spilts and final time compare favorable to the boys who also ran today in the PA Derby Champion Stakes and the PA Derby. She is a special horse and undefeated with 11 straight wins. She is pointed to Breeders Cup Distaff and will likely face Beholder, Stellar Wind, and others.
Parx 2016 Cotillion Stakes:



California Chrome is the best dirt horse and the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic. The best turf horses right now are Flintshire (male) and Tepin (female).

This years Breeders' Cup will be exciting. Who do you like?

Don't have any opinions yet but will be at Lone Star Park that day with my best buddy who is flying in from California.

the last couple of years right after parx's big day, speed on the rail is golden.

Quote: Johnzimbo

Don't have any opinions yet but will be at Lone Star Park that day with my best buddy who is flying in from California.

It has been 10 plus years since I visited Lone Star Park. I always enjoyed the track, particularly the simulcast building (don't know if it still exists). I am still amazed Lone Star Park hosted the Breeders' Cup in 2004. Ghostzapper won the BC Classic 2004.

I liked the original idea of moving the breeders all over to different tracks.....then the $ signs took over and ruined it.

Quote: ontariodealer

the last couple of years right after parx's big day, speed on the rail is golden.

OK. I will give this a go. I took a quick look at the Sunday races and this one "fits":

Sun Sept 25th - Parx - Race 3
#1 - Honor Commitment (3-1 morning line)

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I also like the changing BC tracks over the years. Good for the sport to move it around. Having Keeneland added to the mix in 2015 was great.

Quote: Keeneone

It has been 10 plus years since I visited Lone Star Park. I always enjoyed the track, particularly the simulcast building (don't know if it still exists). I am still amazed Lone Star Park hosted the Breeders' Cup in 2004. Ghostzapper won the BC Classic 2004.

It is now called Bar and Book and that is where I hang, Already got my reserved table on the non-smoking side. It's also nice that they show all the PPV UFC fights there, so I go on occasion for those also.

Quote: Keeneone

-snip-
Sun Sept 25th - Parx - Race 3
#1 - Honor Commitment (3-1 morning line)
-snip-

No golden rail IMO today @ Parx. Honor Commitment ran 2nd (-$25). Maybe Mon or Tues will yield a result...

Quote: Johnzimbo

It is now called Bar and Book and that is where I hang, Already got my reserved table on the non-smoking side. It's also nice that they show all the PPV UFC fights there, so I go on occasion for those also.

Meet me at the B&B @ Lone Star in Grand Prairie...

Sounds like it will be a fun day out. I see they also have live racing on BC weekend as well. Good times in Texas...

Numerous BC hopefuls running and prepping this weekend all over the world. Too many horses to name, but I plan on watching Santa Anita closely on Saturday. With the Championships held there in about a month, a number of BC favorites could come out of the SA races...

A large number of Juveniles (2 years old) are running this weekend. I am hopeful a few in my (very early) Derby barn run with promise. Altito may run @ Belmont (MTO). Silent Decree runs at Churchill. Some early derby favorites run @ Santa Anita in the Frontrunner Stakes: Klimt (Baffert) and Straight Fire (very fast horse). The Frontrunner has produced the last 2 Derby Winners (Nyquist and American Pharoah). I kinda like Vibe and Plum Dandy...Haul Anchor will run Sun @ Belmont and is an intriguing NY bred colt.

GLTA this weekend.

Chrome is prepping for the Classic and he's a monster.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/01/sports/horse-racing/california-chrome-santa-anita-horse-of-the-year.html?ref=sports

I just received in my email a promotional offer from DRF bets who is affiliated with Xpressbet offering a $25 free bet with no deposit required; a free $25 bet each month until you've received $75 free this way when you make any bet; and when you bet $100 in the first 30 days they give you $100. I haven't searched it out to see if there is other fine print that might require you to do other stuff to get this but I doubt there is.


http://www.drf.com/freebet?utm_source=email10.1.16

Quote: lilredrooster

I just received in my email a promotional offer from DRF bets who is affiliated with Xpressbet offering a $25 free bet with no deposit required; a free $25 bet each month until you've received $75 free this way when you make any bet; and when you bet $100 in the first 30 days they give you $100. I haven't searched it out to see if there is other fine print that might require you to do other stuff to get this but I doubt there is.


http://www.drf.com/freebet?utm_source=email10.1.16

I looked into something like this years ago,but never went with it. Between then and now, I think the initial deposit to bet $100 changed from $100 to $25. A lot harder betting $100 with $25 to work with than $100. Hollywood has been sending bet $50, get $50 to bet with offers.

Keeneland! Yay! (And a respectful nod to Belmont.)

I took the summer off from the game a few weeks after the Belmont. But I always really look forward to the opening of the Keeneland meet, with a feast of quality racing going at Belmont too.

But. My interest in Santa Anita now is limited to trying to get a read on how the new grass surface may be playing, before the Breeders' Cup. The turf course in Arcadia was in really crappy condition before they ripped it out, and it was partly responsible for the inferior quality of the turf stock stabled there, IMO (and apparently also in their opinion since they went to such great expense to start over from scratch).

So far, while you can't fault the condition of it at all for apparent safety & anything that would obviously compromise the consistency of the footing for racing on it, I'm a little dissapointed in how it seems to be playing. It looks like a billiard table, and has been described by some riders as "a putting green." But what I care about is that it still doesn't seem to be resulting in something that's more like most high quality turf racing, on deeper more tiring surfaces with more give to them, that tend to reward tactical patience & a physiology that provides great reserves of stamina & the capacity to produce an explosive late turn of foot on command.

In the limited number of SA grass races I've seen so far on the new turf, it appears to remain speed favoring to an eccentric extent, significantly benefiting those running on or near the pace. That kind of not-so-grassy turf course can produce some results that are just plain weird at times, or at least harder to project from the established quality of top-class performances elsewhere. I think it is far too small a sample size to draw definite conclusions at this point, but if that tentative early indication holds up throughout the month I may not be trying to do anything much with the actual Breeders' Cup events at all. If that's how it goes, I'd likely be surfing the national tidal wave of casual fans' tote board liquidity to find some spots to cherry pick at other major tracks that weekend. Especially on turf, where the knowledge & wagering judgment of most two or three day a year type fans usually tends to be weakest.

Good luck.

Quote: lilredrooster

I just received in my email a promotional offer from DRF bets who is affiliated with Xpressbet offering a $25 free bet with no deposit required; a free $25 bet each month until you've received $75 free this way when you make any bet; and when you bet $100 in the first 30 days they give you $100. I haven't searched it out to see if there is other fine print that might require you to do other stuff to get this but I doubt there is.


http://www.drf.com/freebet?utm_source=email10.1.16

The only hitch I've heard of for people clearing these sign-up bonuses from licensed on-shore parimutual advance deposit wagering platforms, is when someone occasionally doesn't realize that some of them operate under multiple 'skins' for various reasons, and it sometimes turns out that they aren't really a new customer, so they aren't actually eligible. Otherwise, I haven't heard of any real problems taking advantage of these bonuses from any of the US or Canada licensed parimutual services in decades. And I believe I would probably hear about if it was happening in that business.

Quote: Keeneone

No golden rail IMO today @ Parx. Honor Commitment ran 2nd (-$25). Maybe Mon or Tues will yield a result...



Meet me at the B&B @ Lone Star in Grand Prairie...

Sounds like it will be a fun day out. I see they also have live racing on BC weekend as well. Good times in Texas...

no golden rail this year for sure

Struck me as kind of strange that the 1 mill Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont only attracted 6 entries. And one was scratched so only 5 will run.

Quote: lilredrooster

Struck me as kind of strange that the 1 mill Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont only attracted 6 entries. And one was scratched so only 5 will run.

So everybody in it got paid, all the way down to about $50,000+ for showing up and finishing last. (There's actually more than the $1M guarantee to be distributed.)

Santa Anita's new turf course is fast?

Vyjack just today broke Wise Dan's (yes, Wise Dan's) 2012 track record for the turf mile at "The Great Race Place" (Santa Anita). Vyjack is no Wise Dan... If they do nothing to the turf course, Vyjack's record will be broken soon. Here are the split times for Wise Dan and Vyjack:

23.34 46.16 1:08.81 1:20.31 Final: 1:31.78 (Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) 2012)
21.40 43.97 1:07.86 1:19.72 Final: 1:31.69 (City Of Hope Mile Stakes (G2) 2016)

DD was spot on in his early assessment of the new turf conditions at Santa Anita. It is fast, very fast, maybe the fastest ever. So now that everyone and their grandma knows this, how do you bet the BC turf events? DD says stay away, and that looks like solid advice.

Oh no, I didn't mean for it to accidentally come out as advice for other folks' precious gamblin' money. Just giving the whys & wherefores of what may be best for me, given the way I play the game with my own individual strong and weak points. Just like I don't usually mess with a whole host of things that fill most of the racecard at many tracks, like $5k claiming events among arthritic 7 yr old geldings with 60 lifetime starts, or gangly newly turned 2yo juveniles awkwardly learning to go 4 furlongs in (mostly) the correct direction. Not because I'm against it for those with that inclination & skill set. Because *I* don't happen to know how to do that. And I don't have to, since there are no blinds & antes in racing. I don't believe anybody can ever get proficient at everything in this game, so I choose what I enjoy most & suck at least.

I once knew a guy who specialized in playing the Pacific Northwest county fair circuit, often involving home grown local stock produced from sub $500 stud fees, where the 'jockey' was likely to be the owner/breeder's teenage daughter, at 'tracks' equipped with a portable tote board towed in for ten days by a pickup truck, and where four furlongs might mean going around at least twice so getting a length and a half jump in the favorable path on the hairpin turns might as well be lapping the field. I had pretty reliable evidence that he was pretty good at it. I had no idea how, and very little inclination to ever find out. But I say kudos to him. Maybe he'd have some better insights on how to successfully play this new green felt billiard table in the San Gabriel valley.

I think it's still an awful pretty sight, even if it would basically amount to a Keno contest for my money.

EDIT:

Quote: Keeneone

1:07.86

Holy sheetrock. If the race didn't involve a green trampoline assist and they stopped right there, that should make him about ready for dipping in a vat of barbeque sauce.

Quote: DrawingDead

-snip-
so I choose what I enjoy most & suck at least.

Love this quote.

I personally suck at the Breeders' Cup turf events. But being a multi-race wager player (pick3/4/5/6), I must make some effort to find winners in the BC turf events. I usually just land on a few European invaders or maybe a front runner and a closer. This new turf course adds a bit of intrigue imo.

Two weeks out from BC Weekend. I have been reading numerous stories about Arrogate (3yo - B.Baffert/M.Smith) in the Classic. Is he the real deal after his freakish Travers Stakes (G1)? Or does he just elevate California Chrome's (A.Sherman/V.Espinoza) and other runners odds to win? Maybe those two hook up in a speed duel and Frosted (K.McLaughlin)/J.Rosario) comes grinding way late to catch them at the wire... Frosted has never raced in California, I am not sure if that is good or bad. Here are some recent odds for the BC Distaff and BC Classic:

I don't say he'll beat Chrome but I would say that Arrogate has to be considered for real. According to the chart you posted Chrome is now only at even money and in his last race he went off at 2/5 with much weaker competition in a field of 5. Considering that he is much loved in Ca where the race is held he is likely to be bet down leaving others at higher odds. Interesting that Arrogate has been bet down much lower than Nyquist, and Frosted and Gun Runner who are much more well known and have much more graded stakes experience. This is not betting from casual racegoers this is betting from the hardcore. Arrogate had trouble at the break brushing the near side stall at the Travers making his performance even greater considering. The new player on the block, watchandwager.com, a legal U.S. racebook; is offering generous sign up bonuses.

BC Pre-Entries have occurred. 185 horses entered, with some entered in multiple races.
http://www.breederscup.com/article/california-chrome-arrogate-beholder-songbird-found-ire-and-nyquist-lead-185-pre-entered

Doubt Stellar Wind can beat Songbird but would love to see John Sadler finally win a BC race.

I haven't looked at the race yet but I've always loved the Breeders Cup Sprint. There's something irresistible about raw speed.

Quote: Johnzimbo

Doubt Stellar Wind can beat Songbird but would love to see John Sadler finally win a BC race.

I have been a fan of Songbird for some time. I do believe she will win the Distaff. It will be the toughest test ever for her and the field has a number of hard trying ladies in it.

Quote: lilredrooster

I haven't looked at the race yet but I've always loved the Breeders Cup Sprint. There's something irresistible about raw speed.

The Sprint is never easy to break down. The pace is always fast, but who cuts out the pace? Who is forced to stalk/press and then come running late? With Runhappy going in the dirt mile, I am leaning towards Masochistic pending the post draw.

The Sprint is never easy to break down. The pace is always fast, but who cuts out the pace? Who is forced to stalk/press and then come running late? With Runhappy going in the dirt mile, I am leaning towards Masochistic pending the post draw.

Just took a look at Masochistic and I have to agree that he is a major threat to win it. I briefly looked at the other main contenders and they looked like stalkers and Masochistic is speed. He may get clear and then get asked to hold on. Masochistic had sizzling fractions in his July 8 allowance win at Santa Anita. He did 6 furlongs in an eye popping 107.42. He had plenty of juice left in the final furlong of his Grade 2 7 furlong win. He faded badly last year in the BC sprint and maybe you can comment on whether or not the competition was tougher last year. Runhappy was a thrilling horse. I don't understand why Runhappy's connections switched him to running a mile. He did poorly at a mile going off at 3/10 3 weeks ago. I guess they think that for a horse to be considered one of the greatest he has to run in distance races. Last year Beyer clocked him making up ground after breaking tardily by doing the next furlong in a shocking 9.5 seconds. I did the math. That's almost 50 mph. He was something else. What odds would you predict that Songbird is going to off at? An interesting point about handicapping that I haven't seen talked about at all is that maybe some horses (possibly Masochistic) who look good on paper don't do well on big race days with large fields. Not so much because they're more likely to get blocked or forced wide but because for example they usually get clear early and now they have 2 or 3 right with them in the early fractions or when they usually make their move and this discourages them. A.P. Indian's trainer, Arnaud Delacour is having a fabulous year winning 71 of 258 or 27.5%.

The other speed to worry about in the Sprint is Lord Nelson. He has done nothing wrong this year winning 3 Grade 1 events (including 2 @ Santa Anita). He is a very, very, very fast Baffert trainee. His recent workouts have been fast, very fast. I would like to see Masochistic draw a post outside of Lord Nelson.

Songbird and Beholder are the "local" SA favorites in the Distaff. They will likely draw the most money and create better odds for others (like the aforementioned Stellar Wind).

The BC races are always so difficult because you can make a case for most of runners in each race.

In the Juvenile Not this Time and Classic Empire both have powerful closing kicks. They earned these comments on their charts, "at will," "vanqished foes," "took command," and "rolled past." Another Baffert speedster Drefong is in the Sprint. I'm pretty sure Baffert would make sure (by instructing the jocks) they don't both try to take the lead. I would tend to think Baffert will send Drefong out to try for the early lead and have Lord Nelson stalk as he has done in previous races.

There were 14 horses in last year's sprint, only 9 pre-entered this year, so I would expect the pace to be more moderate, but it will depend a lot on the jockeys.

I have yet to find a complete link to free BC past performances (PPs). But you can get some by clicking through on link like this:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/ToddPletcher/PLETCHER+TODD+A/9999/summary.html
Click on Keen Ice's Ultimate PPs to see Saturdays Breeders' Cup Classic PPs (pdf).
And click on Curalina's Ultimate PPs to see Fridays Breeders' Cup Distaff PPs (pdf).

*sigh*

Well with my super duper primo subscription to DRF's racing data paid up in full, it seems going foraging for 'free' would've been at least as good for me for this. Twenty-two races with $27.85+ million in purses over the two days, just so I can end up concluding "I really have no (good/profitable) idea" 19 times. So far. And one of the three still left tentatively in my handicapping purgatory isn't even a Breeders' Cup event, it is one of the warm up minor stakes affairs on the SA undercard.

Good luck. And hello Aqueduct & etc. for me.

I took a quick look at the turf events...specifically the Cup Turf and the Mile.
Which runners will prefer the new springy, trampoline like turf surface of Santa Anita? Answer: I don't know.
Should I just chuck the Euros? Answer: I don't know.
Which horse/horses would you not leave off a multi-race wager in these 2 races? Answer: I don't know.
Is there a horse named I Don't Know running soon...

Well (hemming & hawing again) I really don't want this to sound like I'm pushing anything as wagering advice one way or the other, but some of those very stoutly bred {big-time major-league grass route pedigrees *ahem* for ex. Galileo-Danehill @ 10.4f-8.3f AWD) that have been competing in top class European turf company have some tendencies you might not expect that may not be immediately obvious, without the US/Canada style running lines we're used to that show positions at consistently located timed points of call. It doesn't squarely address the issue of the ultra-firm Santa Anita surface vs. Euro-bog footing, but the descriptive comment lines on a couple of them in those events do include remarks such as:

"...led early..." "...led early & retook inside 1f..." "...keen..." "...straight to lead..." "...close up early..."

-and-

"..straight to lead..." "...early to lead..." "...early lead..." "...pressed ldrs stands' side, to lead 2f out..."

If'n ya'll wanna go dat way...

...but then, maybe after looking at earlier events it'll start looking like it'd be a good spot for someone's bush-track dirt sprinter named WaitWhatWhozitOMFG to waltz around swishing his tail at them for a mile and a half.

I'm pretty sure I'm going to make my only sizable bet on Not This Time in the Juvenile. I usually don't bet on 2 year olds but this horse was so visually impressive in his wins that I'm going to do just that. I realize that visuals can be deceiving because the competition could have been weak even in a graded stakes event. In the Grade 3 Iroquois he overcame trouble at the start hopping in the air and a slow pace but still blew past his rivals. On a muddy track he covered the last 2.5 furlongs in better than 30.7 seconds and the last half furlong in 6.27 seconds which has to be considered impressive for a 2 year old breezing down the stretch and not even being shown the whip. Anyway, you have to hang your hat on something. You can't go the whole 2 days without making a sizable bet; that would be insane. I'd love it if somebody comments on my pick even if they say it's a bad one and maybe influence me to go another route. If too many others like him too much and he's crushed way down in the odds I'm going to leave him alone. Correct me if I'm wrong but I think Dead's pick in the Turf is Found and I also think his jock Ryan Moore is considered by many to be the best in the world and jockey skills are critical in a 2 turn turf route with a large field.

I just did a rather long write up on the Juvenile and my computer froze before I finished. I will take it to mean my post was full of manure like information and was not to be viewed by others.
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Thanks DD for the turf post. It has been very helpful.
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Some 2 year old preps for viewing:
Belmont Champagne:

Loved this race. Syndergaard has some real gumption. 1 turn speed is different from 2 turn speed (as DDead has taught me in the past). If the Juvenile race was at any other track I would likely toss Syndergaard, but SA has a real bias towards speed types. His speed may carry him a long way in this one...
Keeneland Breeders Futurity:

Solid field with great pressing trip from an outside post for Classic Empire..
Santa Anita Frontrunner:

Merry go round race with little to discuss. I am not finding the "SA Locals" compelling in the Juvenile.
Churchill Downs Iroquois:

I tend to draw a line through "off track" races (possibly at my own peril). Not this Time did beat Lookin At Lee who finished strong to get 2nd @ KEE in the Breeders Futurity.

My selection will be Syndergaard in this event. I also think Three Rules could be any kind and a must include. I will probably add one more after some cappin of the form.

Santa Anita is a fast track and some consider it to be speed favoring. This is not in any way conclusive but just as a frame of reference I looked at the charts for last Saturday's races at Santa Anita. There were 6 races on the dirt. 5 were sprints and one was a route. None of the 5 sprints were won by a front runner. Only the route was won by a front runner and this was maiden special event. However, it is also possible that the groundskeeper will do everything possible to soup up the track this weekend in order show fast times.

Podcast with Andrew Beyer and Steve Davidowitz discussing all the races during the two days.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RpxEht3xxw

Quote: lilredrooster

Santa Anita is a fast track and some consider it to be speed favoring. This is not in any way conclusive but just as a frame of reference I looked at the charts for last Saturday's races at Santa Anita. There were 6 races on the dirt. 5 were sprints and one was a route. None of the 5 sprints were won by a front runner. Only the route was won by a front runner and this was maiden special event. However, it is also possible that the groundskeeper will do everything possible to soup up the track this weekend in order show fast times.

A closer look shows the pacesetter of the dirt events on Oct 29th performed quite well.
1 Win (Route)
4 Seconds (Sprints)
1 Fifth (Sprint)
Having speed is a bonus when running there. Is it the only factor, no. Every race day can be different and every race can have a different running profile. Here are some recent Brisnet stats on Santa Anita:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=104

18 minutes to post and it looks like Songbird is way over bet at 3/5. Stellar Wind is at 7/2 and Beholder is 3/1. Speed figures indicate Songbird does not have the speed to equal these two. Possibly because she hasn't been asked. We'll see. Looks like an edge betting against her. They love Songbird in Ca. Curalina is a live longshot at 15/1.

What a race in the Distaff. Congrats to Beholder, she is going out on top. Tough loss for Songbird. Stellar Wind ran nicely to finish 4th after a terrible start.

On to Saturday...
Outside of California Chrome I do not love many other runners. Maybe...
Syndergaard/Three Rules in the Juvenile.
Tara's Tango in the Filly and Mare Sprint.
Thanks to DD (likely still recovering from CLE loss in the WS)...Highland Reel in the Cup Turf?

R5-F&M Turf: I like #3 Seventh Heaven a lot there. So, that's prolly gonna be a lock for Lady Eli's next Eclipse award.
R7-Trf Sprint: Probably taking a shot with #8 Washington DC likely going off at a generous price, with #14 Celestine.
R8-Juvenile: No idea, will just watch, but I really don't expect a Derby winner out of this. I'm NOT using this data for predictive value at SA today, ONLY for evaluation going forward, but just 3 colts entered with clearly more than a sprint/miler/middle-distance pedigree: #3 Term of Art, #8 Star Empire, #10 Not This Time. And two of those would probably need the race to fall apart in front of them to get their picture taken here.
R9-BC Turf: Tough call but looking at #12 Highland Reel > #10 Found >> #4 Flintshire (very fine turf router on firm ground but now getting eligible for senior discount at the buffet).
R11-Turf Mile: #10 Limato > #2 Alice Springs/#3 Spectre
R12-Classic: Fuggedaboudit. No touch for me. Will root for Jerkins to make live Pick-6 bettors cry with his 2nd time Lasix entry.

Good luck, and don't do what I'm doing.

Quote: Keeneone

(likely still recovering from CLE loss in the WS)

With support of family & friends & perhaps some professional therapy I'm sure I'll get ov.... eh, no I won't. Had them booked at 20/1 in March.

Quote: DrawingDead

R5-F&M Turf: I like #3 Seventh Heaven a lot there. So, that's prolly gonna be a lock for Lady Eli's next Eclipse award.

Now that was no fun at all. Seventh Heaven had a trip from Hell, IMO. She was forced to take up sharply along the rail first time through the stretch, and was trapped in a pocket in much of the final stretch drive, before getting clear in midtrack to begin her run far too late near the wire. This is the one I really wanted, and I think she was likely best. The DRF/Equibase chart caller does not seem to see it that way. The feeling of being right and not getting rewarded is not my favorite kind of sporting entertainment. Oh well. Getting a trip, or not, is always part of the game. I've been wrong and cashed a time or two, and will again.

Quote: DrawingDead

R7-Trf Sprint: Probably taking a shot with #8 Washington DC likely going off at a generous price, with #14 Celestine.

The complete commentary in the official DrawingDead result chart for this event reads: "Pfffft, and hooey." And just to gratuitously ridicule my worthless wagers, my supposed price horses apparently became the wiseguy "buzz" horses. So which one of youse guys backed up da truck at da window to bet dem down like dat?

Quote: DrawingDead

R8-Juvenile: No idea, will just watch, but I really don't expect a Derby winner out of this. I'm NOT using this data for predictive value at SA today, ONLY for evaluation going forward, but just 3 colts entered with clearly more than a sprint/miler/middle-distance pedigree: #3 Term of Art, #8 Star Empire, #10 Not This Time. And two of those would probably need the race to fall apart in front of them to get their picture taken here.

So of the three legit route pedigrees in the Juvenile, Not This Time (7.7f AWD), the one that had shown some modest degree of tactical speed & therefore did not necessarily need the race to completely melt down, was right there within a diminishing neck at the wire for 2nd, well clear of the rest. Whaddayaknow. Coming out of this modest field, I don't know if he'll turn out to be fast enough for the Derby trail, but I do think there's every reason to surmise that he can continue to improve with maturity and distance well into his 3 y/o season.

Quote: DrawingDead

R9-BC Turf: Tough call but looking at #12 Highland Reel > #10 Found >> #4 Flintshire (very fine turf router on firm ground but now getting eligible for senior discount at the buffet).

Now that's more like my idea of a good time at the track. Making up for the frustrating F&M Turf, by rolling along for a mile and a half with a perfect (and perfectly larcenous) trip that amounted to floating around on a magic carpet ride. Buh-bye, suckers. And nice to have the other two real classic turf distance contenders both tied up underneath as the trio lights all the payouts on the board.

Quote: DrawingDead

R11-Turf Mile: #10 Limato > #2 Alice Springs/#3 Spectre

Okay then, fun's over for the day for DD. Getting a race flat out wrong will tend to do that. That took it down to a break-even Breeders' Cup for me, and this was the scheduled closing time for my BC wagering wallet. Hope y'all were much more richly rewarded, by having everything I didn't, playing races where I wasn't.

Quote: DrawingDead

R12-Classic: Fuggedaboudit. No touch for me. Will root for Jerkins to make live Pick-6 bettors cry with his 2nd time Lasix entry.

Well Mr. Jerkins, you can't make the Pick-6 plungers who were live to the two obvious consensus horses sh^& in their drawers by scratching your "Huh?Wat?Who?Why?" entry. But I was pretty well packed up & halfway out the door before the prices went up on this one. Congratulations once again to Mr. Baffert's chemist.

What a three year old making his 6th lifetime start isn't suppose to run down the best dirt horse in the world ($13 million made) ?

Quote: coilman

What a three year old making his 6th lifetime start isn't suppose to run down the best dirt horse in the world ($13 million made) ?

If you consider Lebron James or Steph Curry to be the best basketball players in the world I will guarantee you that there are some high school basketball players (seniors) that they cannot handle (at least defensively), that could score on them almost at will. Check out this vid of Aquille Carr (the crimestopper) in high school. He would beat Lebron James by 3 steps. He would beat Curry by two. (Sorry if I wandered off the track a little bit drifting wide. I'm still green.)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ll2UaDrWFRE

I got 4 or 5 runner up all day. What a joke.

Racing management is trying for another huge racing day and on Saturday Jan. 28 at Gulfstream will run the the Pegasus Cup with the fattest purse ever offered for a single race - $12 million. The purse money will be supplied by those entering at 1 mill a pop. I'm wondering if that will go smoothly or not. I'm sure WoV's team of top notch handicappers will gear up to offer valuable insights into this event and its undercard. I can't wait for it to happen. I'm on pins and needles. I just need to try to relax a little bit and take it easy.


http://www.drf.com/news/gulfstream-park-announces-plans-12-million-pegasus-cup

Quote: lilredrooster

I don't say he'll beat Chrome but I would say that Arrogate has to be considered for real...

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Quote: lilredrooster

In the Juvenile Not this Time and Classic Empire both have powerful closing kicks...

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Quote: lilredrooster

I'm pretty sure I'm going to make my only sizable bet on Not This Time in the Juvenile...

...<SNIP>...

Well done, good call; especially in the Juvenile, even the wire was a neck early for "Not..."

Thanks Dead: Thanks to you I started looking at the European invaders in the Turf races and I won a small show bet on Found. I've always been insecure about betting European horses because their PPs seem incomplete and hard to decipher and its very difficult to judge class. Because they usually run in large fields they offer juicy payouts. Its a learning experience. I wish I knew more about it. The next time I look at one of these races I'm going to try googling their names and hopefully hit on a news story from England or Ireland or wherever to give me some more clues about the horses. Probably others are having the same difficulty as me which means they are probably sometimes wrongly priced which means someone who knows more can find overlays.

The purse money for almost all Breeders' Cup is races is being released to the connections according to the results declared on race day. But the awarding of purse money for one race is being held back for publicly unknown reasons, pending resolution of some currently undisclosed issue. That race is the Sprint. The most likely reason for this kind of thing is generally that the lab has notified the stewards that someone has failed their blood test, so they are waiting for confirmation of the results from a separate test of a 'split sample' taken from the same horse at the same time, and possibly for an interview/explanation by the connections and related investigation of the matter. Flunking a drug screen is not the only possible reason for this sort of thing, but it is by far the most likely. This year's BC Sprint was won by Bob Baffert's trainee Drefong.

Quote: DrawingDead

The purse money for almost all Breeders' Cup is races is being released to the connections according to the results declared on race day. But the awarding of purse money for one race is being held back for publicly unknown reasons, pending resolution of some currently undisclosed issue. That race is the Sprint. The most likely reason for this kind of thing is generally that the lab has notified the stewards that someone has failed their blood test, so they are waiting for confirmation of the results from a separate test of a 'split sample' taken from the same horse at the same time, and possibly for an interview/explanation by the connections and related investigation of the matter. Flunking a drug screen is not the only possible reason for this sort of thing, but it is by far the most likely. This year's BC Sprint was won by Bob Baffert's trainee Drefong.

Masochistic, the 2nd place finisher has been disqualified after post race detection of the anabolic steroid Stanozolol in his system. His trainer, Ron Ellis, explains:

http://www.espn.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/18318472/masochistic-disqualified-bc-sprint