Week One College Football Picks
August 27th, 2016 at 1:36:01 PM
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Every week, I have posted college football picks at Tiger Board.com since 1999 (actually, it might've been 1998 I'm not 100% sure). I do not claim to be a tremendous expert but I thought I would post them over here in case people had some suggestions or comments!
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Well, fall has arrived once again and after some consideration I have decided to continue to give it a go and post a series of football picks against the spread. This is the eighteenth year I have done this and we are finished above .500 vs the spread fifteen of the previous seventeen years. These picks are designed to stimulate some discussion about some games and I realize some folks do occasionally follow my advice if they were to say go to Vegas and put actual money on the games but I can't say that I actually recommend that. I really enjoy the challenge of trying to beat the odds makers. However, I recognize that some folks do this for a living, and there are times that I miss important information that could help me make better informed picks. Anyone that thinks about doing this for serious money should've watched the craziness that was California versus Hawaii last night with a 20.5 point spread!
As long time readers of this series of posts know, back in the day I picked every single Big 12 game. That was always a challenge but back then I really followed that conference very carefully and felt as though I could do a decent job on picis. Those days are obviously gone and while I will try to pick some Nebraska games and some Kansas State games, I'm not making any promises this year, I'm just going to go with my best choices and see what happens. Last year we did manage to go 5045 against the spread which didn't make anyone rich but it also didn't hurt too badly either.
There are some games I'm excited about this week but as always I will start with my hopes and overview for the Missouri football season. I am very excited about the new coaching staff and the changes that appear have taken place. Last year wasn't fun for any Missouri fan that I know for a variety of reasons that I won't reference this year. I have paid some attention to the preseason predictions that are out there but are you watching the SEC network I am amazed at how little most of the "experts" know about Missouri football. One moron claimed that a key loss from last year's team would be Harold Brantley . Don't get me wrong, in his day he was a great player but since he never took the field last year I can't agree that it's going to be a tremendous loss from last year's team! There are some guys out there like Booger McFarland and Greg McElroy that actually do the necessary research but because Missouri is not a traditional blue blood we have to put up with a lot of sloppy "analysis" and stupid comments.
So, I am excited about this year. Obviously we could've lost some games last year that we won but at the same time had the Georgia game been refereed with any semblance of competence I strongly believe Missouri would've won that game. The Tigers are going to have to improve on the offensive line and that won't be a given but honestly things were so bad last year I have to think the change of staff will be a positive.
So let's take a look at a few games and see if we can get off to a good start this year. For full disclosure, all I can really do here is try to pick against teams that might be a little bit overhyped or bet on teams that are under hyped. Clearly, there is a lot of uncertainty when we haven't seen these teams take the field. But I have chosen seven games that I feel pretty good about. One thing that I did was I checked the Phil Steele power ratings and added three points for home-field and then compared the predicted spread to the actual spread. Again, I know many things have changed since that magazine came out but I think it's a pretty decent starting point for research.
MIZZOU +10 at West Virginia - (Steele WVU -4)
Because I took a trip to Las Vegas and put an actual wager on this game at +10 1/2 I would like to claim that spread here but to be fair I won't do that. This will be a real test for the Tigers winning on the road against a team with significant talent albeit much of it somewhat unproven. Over the past few years Missouri has actually been relatively good on the road compared to how they have played at home. I kind of had this game pegged as a close loss going into the off-season and then West Virginia keeps getting injury after suspension after injury after suspension.
I actually attended the West Virginia versus Kansas State game last year and frankly I thought West Virginia had an excellent running back who has since graduated that really carried the water for them. Overall, I did not feel like they played the type of physical football that many of Missouri's opponents played and I felt that last year even with a poor offense Missouri could've been competitive in a game against West Virginia. West Virginia will probably be stronger on offense than on defense this year and the opposite will hold true for Missouri so this makes for a very interesting game.
I'll go with what I realize is a homer pick and take Missouri to win this one outright. One should not ignore the fact that the potential Groza award winner for West Virginia is suspended for this game also. In a close game that could make the difference. People kind of ignore how strong the Missouri defense was for almost every game last year despite having no offensive support whatsoever in many games.
MIZZOU 23 WVU 17 is the is the pick
Southern Mississippi (+6.5) at Kentucky - (Steele UK by 9)
Well certain teams like, I don't know maybe Tennessee?, always seem to get the benefit of the doubt from the preseason prognosticators who rely on what a team used to be twenty years ago, Kentucky has never been accused of getting that type of love. I forgot to mention above I have Missouri finishing 7-5 this year but I am aware that some of the games that most Missouri fans will chalk up as probable wins may be tougher than folks recognize. The level of talent continues to improve at Kentucky and I suspect it shows up here against the Southern Miss team that has competed well against some of the so-called power five teams.
Let's take KENTUCKY 38-24
La Tech (+26) at Arkansas - (Steele Ark by 18)
Arkansas is another one of those teams that maybe gets a little more credit by the so-called experts when there's doubt or uncertainty then they are entitled to. Obviously they've had their disappointments in nonleague games and it stands to reason that it might take a little time to get this offense fully clicking. I'm not really seeing a potential upset here but it seems like the spread has been bet up a little high.
LA TECH is the pick despite losing 4120
Clemson (-7) at Auburn - PS has this is this at an 8 point spread
I don't want to get raked over the coals for not being a good SEC fan but I think there's this belief by many folks that a team like Auburn could not possibly get blown out at home in this situation. As far as I can tell, Clemson is still loaded and I think they might overwhelm Auburn.
CLEMSON 38-20
Alabama (-10.5) vs USC at Cowboy Stadium -Steele says Bama by 9
Alabama has had to deal with several distractions and they may not be fully focused blah blah blah that's what you hear. Take what I said about Auburn and enter USC into that discussion. I realize some of these early Bama games have been closer than expected in previous years but I'm OK rolling with the Tide.
ALABAMA 31-16
Ole Miss (+4.5) at Florida State - PS-FSU by 6
This is a similar theme, I'm not as certain that Florida State will be elite as I am about Clemson and Mississippi I think has a higher level of talent than Auburn so this is a tougher pick for me. As I look at the depth chart though it does seem like Mississippi has enough elite players to replace that I'm going to consider the spread to be a little too low. Sometimes I pick one last game just to have an odd number of picks and I feel like maybe that's what I've done here but I also feel home-field advantage is being slightly under valued.
Let's take Florida State 38-31
I have to save my favorite pic for last- HOUSTON (nine point dog according to PS) is getting 10 points at the Texan's stadium against Oklahoma. I realize that Houston plays in a solid but less than power five type conference but they certainly have the overall skill level to compete here. The receiving game should be excellent and while they have some holes to fill in that running back I think they've done so adequately. This is not a true home game but it's as close as they will probably ever get to hosting a school like Oklahoma unless the Big 12 does invite them for membership which probably isn't the suggestion I would make for the conference. Houston did just fine against Louisville last year and while bowl games can be tough to extrapolate information from the win over Florida State is nonetheless impressive.
Kudos to Oklahoma for scheduling the most difficult nonconference schedule in the country. They might be able to afford a loss here given the fact that they will get a shot at Ohio State soon and honestly if they split those two games I don't really have a problem with that. It's not that I don't think Oklahoma is a very solid team I just think some people continue to miss the boat on Houston and that's not going to be my problem. I really should pick the upset here but I will stop short of that and take Oklahoma to win 3028.
HOUSTON is the pick
I wanted to pick the Kansas State versus Stanford game but I just don't know if Kansas State has the team speed to keep up so I'm going to pass on picking that. I will take ku to actually win a game straight up against a horrible FCS team so hooray for them!
I will also take Iowa State to defeat Northern Iowa in a close game. I'll try to pick some of these types of games in future weeks including Nebraska but I just know nothing about Fresno State.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non-Mountaineer) team!
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Well, fall has arrived once again and after some consideration I have decided to continue to give it a go and post a series of football picks against the spread. This is the eighteenth year I have done this and we are finished above .500 vs the spread fifteen of the previous seventeen years. These picks are designed to stimulate some discussion about some games and I realize some folks do occasionally follow my advice if they were to say go to Vegas and put actual money on the games but I can't say that I actually recommend that. I really enjoy the challenge of trying to beat the odds makers. However, I recognize that some folks do this for a living, and there are times that I miss important information that could help me make better informed picks. Anyone that thinks about doing this for serious money should've watched the craziness that was California versus Hawaii last night with a 20.5 point spread!
As long time readers of this series of posts know, back in the day I picked every single Big 12 game. That was always a challenge but back then I really followed that conference very carefully and felt as though I could do a decent job on picis. Those days are obviously gone and while I will try to pick some Nebraska games and some Kansas State games, I'm not making any promises this year, I'm just going to go with my best choices and see what happens. Last year we did manage to go 5045 against the spread which didn't make anyone rich but it also didn't hurt too badly either.
There are some games I'm excited about this week but as always I will start with my hopes and overview for the Missouri football season. I am very excited about the new coaching staff and the changes that appear have taken place. Last year wasn't fun for any Missouri fan that I know for a variety of reasons that I won't reference this year. I have paid some attention to the preseason predictions that are out there but are you watching the SEC network I am amazed at how little most of the "experts" know about Missouri football. One moron claimed that a key loss from last year's team would be Harold Brantley . Don't get me wrong, in his day he was a great player but since he never took the field last year I can't agree that it's going to be a tremendous loss from last year's team! There are some guys out there like Booger McFarland and Greg McElroy that actually do the necessary research but because Missouri is not a traditional blue blood we have to put up with a lot of sloppy "analysis" and stupid comments.
So, I am excited about this year. Obviously we could've lost some games last year that we won but at the same time had the Georgia game been refereed with any semblance of competence I strongly believe Missouri would've won that game. The Tigers are going to have to improve on the offensive line and that won't be a given but honestly things were so bad last year I have to think the change of staff will be a positive.
So let's take a look at a few games and see if we can get off to a good start this year. For full disclosure, all I can really do here is try to pick against teams that might be a little bit overhyped or bet on teams that are under hyped. Clearly, there is a lot of uncertainty when we haven't seen these teams take the field. But I have chosen seven games that I feel pretty good about. One thing that I did was I checked the Phil Steele power ratings and added three points for home-field and then compared the predicted spread to the actual spread. Again, I know many things have changed since that magazine came out but I think it's a pretty decent starting point for research.
MIZZOU +10 at West Virginia - (Steele WVU -4)
Because I took a trip to Las Vegas and put an actual wager on this game at +10 1/2 I would like to claim that spread here but to be fair I won't do that. This will be a real test for the Tigers winning on the road against a team with significant talent albeit much of it somewhat unproven. Over the past few years Missouri has actually been relatively good on the road compared to how they have played at home. I kind of had this game pegged as a close loss going into the off-season and then West Virginia keeps getting injury after suspension after injury after suspension.
I actually attended the West Virginia versus Kansas State game last year and frankly I thought West Virginia had an excellent running back who has since graduated that really carried the water for them. Overall, I did not feel like they played the type of physical football that many of Missouri's opponents played and I felt that last year even with a poor offense Missouri could've been competitive in a game against West Virginia. West Virginia will probably be stronger on offense than on defense this year and the opposite will hold true for Missouri so this makes for a very interesting game.
I'll go with what I realize is a homer pick and take Missouri to win this one outright. One should not ignore the fact that the potential Groza award winner for West Virginia is suspended for this game also. In a close game that could make the difference. People kind of ignore how strong the Missouri defense was for almost every game last year despite having no offensive support whatsoever in many games.
MIZZOU 23 WVU 17 is the is the pick
Southern Mississippi (+6.5) at Kentucky - (Steele UK by 9)
Well certain teams like, I don't know maybe Tennessee?, always seem to get the benefit of the doubt from the preseason prognosticators who rely on what a team used to be twenty years ago, Kentucky has never been accused of getting that type of love. I forgot to mention above I have Missouri finishing 7-5 this year but I am aware that some of the games that most Missouri fans will chalk up as probable wins may be tougher than folks recognize. The level of talent continues to improve at Kentucky and I suspect it shows up here against the Southern Miss team that has competed well against some of the so-called power five teams.
Let's take KENTUCKY 38-24
La Tech (+26) at Arkansas - (Steele Ark by 18)
Arkansas is another one of those teams that maybe gets a little more credit by the so-called experts when there's doubt or uncertainty then they are entitled to. Obviously they've had their disappointments in nonleague games and it stands to reason that it might take a little time to get this offense fully clicking. I'm not really seeing a potential upset here but it seems like the spread has been bet up a little high.
LA TECH is the pick despite losing 4120
Clemson (-7) at Auburn - PS has this is this at an 8 point spread
I don't want to get raked over the coals for not being a good SEC fan but I think there's this belief by many folks that a team like Auburn could not possibly get blown out at home in this situation. As far as I can tell, Clemson is still loaded and I think they might overwhelm Auburn.
CLEMSON 38-20
Alabama (-10.5) vs USC at Cowboy Stadium -Steele says Bama by 9
Alabama has had to deal with several distractions and they may not be fully focused blah blah blah that's what you hear. Take what I said about Auburn and enter USC into that discussion. I realize some of these early Bama games have been closer than expected in previous years but I'm OK rolling with the Tide.
ALABAMA 31-16
Ole Miss (+4.5) at Florida State - PS-FSU by 6
This is a similar theme, I'm not as certain that Florida State will be elite as I am about Clemson and Mississippi I think has a higher level of talent than Auburn so this is a tougher pick for me. As I look at the depth chart though it does seem like Mississippi has enough elite players to replace that I'm going to consider the spread to be a little too low. Sometimes I pick one last game just to have an odd number of picks and I feel like maybe that's what I've done here but I also feel home-field advantage is being slightly under valued.
Let's take Florida State 38-31
I have to save my favorite pic for last- HOUSTON (nine point dog according to PS) is getting 10 points at the Texan's stadium against Oklahoma. I realize that Houston plays in a solid but less than power five type conference but they certainly have the overall skill level to compete here. The receiving game should be excellent and while they have some holes to fill in that running back I think they've done so adequately. This is not a true home game but it's as close as they will probably ever get to hosting a school like Oklahoma unless the Big 12 does invite them for membership which probably isn't the suggestion I would make for the conference. Houston did just fine against Louisville last year and while bowl games can be tough to extrapolate information from the win over Florida State is nonetheless impressive.
Kudos to Oklahoma for scheduling the most difficult nonconference schedule in the country. They might be able to afford a loss here given the fact that they will get a shot at Ohio State soon and honestly if they split those two games I don't really have a problem with that. It's not that I don't think Oklahoma is a very solid team I just think some people continue to miss the boat on Houston and that's not going to be my problem. I really should pick the upset here but I will stop short of that and take Oklahoma to win 3028.
HOUSTON is the pick
I wanted to pick the Kansas State versus Stanford game but I just don't know if Kansas State has the team speed to keep up so I'm going to pass on picking that. I will take ku to actually win a game straight up against a horrible FCS team so hooray for them!
I will also take Iowa State to defeat Northern Iowa in a close game. I'll try to pick some of these types of games in future weeks including Nebraska but I just know nothing about Fresno State.
That's all for this week! Good luck to your (non-Mountaineer) team!
August 27th, 2016 at 3:16:42 PM
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Quote: ZourahEvery week, I have posted college football picks at Tiger Board.com since 1999 (actually, it might've been 1998 I'm not 100% sure). I do not claim to be a tremendous expert but I thought I would post them over here in case people had some suggestions or comments!
I'm interested and appreciate you giving us your ideas rather than just the picks. I'll go with my son's analysis and take WVU minus 10.
August 27th, 2016 at 4:27:50 PM
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I messed up on the Florida State game as it apparently is in Orlando but I'm going to keep the pick as one of the choices anyway
August 28th, 2016 at 9:24:17 AM
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Quote: ZourahI messed up on the Florida State game as it apparently is in Orlando but I'm going to keep the pick as one of the choices anyway
FSU returns 11 starters on offense and will be a favorite to make the playoffs this year. They return 6 on defense as well. Ole Miss only returns 5/5 on offense and defense. When you mention that you don't believe FSU is an elite team I have to question the validity of your research. You have them as an 8 point favorite so I'll at least let you know you are fairly close. FSU wins this by 11+. I have them winning 31-20.
Also, please stop mentioning Mr. Phil Steele. I argue with him every week on the First Team when he makes his picks and I beat him every single week. This is the same guy that predicted Nebraska to win the Big-10 last year. Phil Steele Picks Nebraska to Win Big 10. How did Nebraska do? 3-5 in the Big-10.
Phil gained popularity with developing tons of statistical information but he absolutely has no idea how to measure the strength of teams.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
August 28th, 2016 at 11:31:25 AM
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Quote: JoelDezeFSU returns 11 starters on offense .
Not game one against Mississippi. Freshman quarterback is starting according to statement from Fischer because Mcguire has the broken foot..
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
August 28th, 2016 at 11:36:20 AM
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Quote: DRichNot game one against Mississippi. Freshman quarterback is starting according to statement from Fischer because Mcguire has the broken foot..
The Freshman QB, Deondre Francois, is the better QB by far. He will be the starter for the remainder of the season, if he doesn't get injured. It was an easy decision.
Its a dog eat dog world out there and Im wearing milkbone underwear . Norm Peterson
August 29th, 2016 at 9:46:11 PM
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