Doc
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January 7th, 2011 at 12:10:25 PM permalink
Quote: Doc (back on 8/25/10 after picking the Patriots over the Vikings)

... I have admitted that I know nothing about professional football, so now I will reveal my strategy for this contest. This thread derives from Nareed's "One lousy bet" thread where he named what he said were the four most-likely teams. I checked the NFL web site and found that three of the four are in the AFC. I picked one of those three at random over the one from the NFC. How stupid is that for someone with no knowledge of the teams?


Quote: Nareed (30 minutes later in response)

I won't judge. But if you win, you owe me one third the prize :P


Well, Nareed, it turns out that the one-and-only NFC team you listed in your four-most-likely has already bitten the dust. How could I possibly develop a winning strategy for either of us if you provide worthless information for me to steal when looking over your shoulder? I'm blaming this all on you!
Mosca
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January 7th, 2011 at 1:15:23 PM permalink
Lots of us backed the Packers... they have one long row to hoe, but they also have the horses (Rodgers on O, Matthews on D). If I were to pick today, I'd take Steelers over Saints.
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Nareed
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January 7th, 2011 at 1:49:02 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

Well, Nareed, it turns out that the one-and-only NFC team you listed in your four-most-likely has already bitten the dust. How could I possibly develop a winning strategy for either of us if you provide worthless information for me to steal when looking over your shoulder? I'm blaming this all on you!



Yeah, that's so laughable now, I should go ditzy and say I picked the Vikings becasue I like purple (and I do!), and isn't Brett a ruggedly handsome man? But I won't.

Remember the Vikings Rule the owners passed last year? It's a change in the overtime rules for playoffs games, to go into effect this season. Now scoring a field goal won't win the game, you have to get a TD. If you get a field goal, you kick off ot the other team. If they can't score, you win. if they score a TD, they win. If they score a field goal, the game goes to sudden death and the first to score anything further wins.

This came about because the Vikings lost in OT against the Saints last year, and many people were disappointed Iron Man Brett didn't get to touch the ball in overtime. Ergo the Vikings Rule, though Minnesota voted agaisnt it (I'm sure Mel Blount didn't vote for the rule named after him, either).

So here's my reasoning: the Vikes nearly made it to the Big Game last year. This season was likely Favre's last (got that right, probably). So the combination of should have added up to the best Vikings team ever. Not the meltdown we witnessed, and Chilly's ignomious exit. The man was supposed to be a good tactician, wasn't he? Football is all about tactics and strategy anyway.

Ok. I accept the blame. I'm sorry and I won't predict the Vikings ever again. If I see a blackbaord in the next few days, I will write 100 times "The Vikings are the New York Jets of the NFC."

Happy?
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Doc
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January 7th, 2011 at 3:11:45 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

... Happy?

Nah. "Happy" would require favorable results. But I'm satisfied just having someone else to put the blame on. :P
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January 7th, 2011 at 3:37:36 PM permalink
Quote: Doc

Nah. "Happy" would require favorable results. But I'm satisfied just having someone else to put the blame on. :P



I guess that will do, then.

But if you're not happy, no way I'll write some ironic observation on a blackbaord 100 times. On a piece of paper, maybe, and only once.
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slyther
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January 7th, 2011 at 3:38:30 PM permalink
Speaking of the new OT rule... if I was kicking off to start the first OT I would onside kick every time. The reason being that if you recover the kick, that counts as the other team's possession since they 'had the opportunity to possess'. You can recover the onside, and kick a FG and win. plus, onside kicks are much more successful when they are not expected.
If you don't recover the kick then you can hold the other team to a FG and still get the ball back with a chance to tie or win. Touchdowns don't happen all that often.
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January 10th, 2011 at 9:51:22 AM permalink
And there go most of the remaining picks... looks like we're down to 5
Pick By
Steelers over Packers. Mosca
Pats - Pack CapnDave
Packers over the Jets Ayecarumba
Jets over Packers patespates
Packers over Patriots. SOOPOO

Mosca
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January 10th, 2011 at 10:50:50 AM permalink
Jeez, if the Packers go down next week, we all lose!
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Ayecarumba
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January 10th, 2011 at 10:59:13 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Jeez, if the Packers go down next week, we all lose!



Everyone get out your cheesehead hats!

However, the cheesebra is optional:

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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January 10th, 2011 at 11:03:18 AM permalink
Quote: slyther

And there go most of the remaining picks... looks like we're down to 5



Good work, thanks.

If nobody wins, what I'll do is give a prize to the last man standing. If it is a tie between two or more, I'll determine the winner randomly.

So IF the Packers lose, each one of the five left will have a 20% chance. Here is how I'll do it. I'll add up the total points in all divisional playoff games and divide by 5. A reminder of 0 = Mosca wins, 1=CapnDave, etc.. If there are survivors after this weekend we'll do something similar for the playoffs.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
SOOPOO
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January 10th, 2011 at 11:09:34 AM permalink
The Newcomb being has just predicted Patriots Seahawks......
Ayecarumba
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January 10th, 2011 at 11:33:24 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

The Newcomb being has just predicted Patriots Seahawks......



That's odd, a teenager driving a souped up DeLorean just gave me a sports almanac listing Packers/Jets.
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avargov
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January 10th, 2011 at 1:21:21 PM permalink
Why wouldn't a player that had one team alive still be in the running Wiz? I vote that if no one gets both teams in, but one qualifies, they should still have a chance. Perhaps a score tiebreaker in the SB if that happens.

Of course, I only bring this up because of the Falcons. lol
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Wizard
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January 16th, 2011 at 8:16:50 PM permalink
With Pats loss today CapnDave and SOOPOO are eliminated, leaving just three men standing.

Pick By
Steelers over Packers. Mosca
Packers over the Jets Ayecarumba
Jets over Packers patespates


If the Packers lose then nobody would be left. In that case I will randomly determine the winner by taking the total points scored in the conference championship games, divide by 3, and take the remainder. I randomly assigned the winning remainders as follows:

patespates: 0
Mosca: 1
Ayecarumba: 2
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Face
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January 16th, 2011 at 11:46:49 PM permalink
Tom Brady and his girl-hair have been eliminated. As I see it, everybody's a winner. Congrats to us all!
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Mosca
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January 17th, 2011 at 6:28:42 AM permalink
Quote: Face

Tom Brady and his girl-hair have been eliminated. As I see it, everybody's a winner. Congrats to us all!



Me and my dad were talking about what we thought the best outcome for Jets/Patriots would have been; we finally decided that we wanted the Jets to break Brady's arm, and the Pats win. Now, it's all in jest, dark humor and all, no one really wants to see a guy injured. (Or is it hurt? Gotta call James Harrison and get the difference.) But we didn't want to have to root for the Jets.

The 6 seeds both look like possible winners next week. I still think I have the right matchup for the SB, but I'm not so sure I have the right result.

How about da Bears for making it this far? Wow. I just don't think they're that good; it all depends on whether Dr Jeckyll or Mr Hyde shows up to play QB.
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Nareed
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January 17th, 2011 at 6:59:29 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Now, it's all in jest, dark humor and all, no one really wants to see a guy injured. (Or is it hurt? Gotta call James Harrison and get the difference.)



It's injured. The entire Pats organization was hurt yesterday.

I'd have been worried either way. Both the Pats and the Jets defeated the Steelers in the regular season.
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clarkacal
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January 17th, 2011 at 9:39:40 AM permalink
The Steelers should be gone. When you think of all the things that had to go right for them that 2nd half it's incredible they not only won but beat the spread. Of course the killer play had to be a deep sideline catch controlled against an earhole!
Nareed
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January 17th, 2011 at 9:56:27 AM permalink
Quote: clarkacal

The Steelers should be gone. When you think of all the things that had to go right for them that 2nd half it's incredible they not only won but beat the spread. Of course the killer play had to be a deep sideline catch controlled against an earhole!



Sure, they scored 17 points off 3 Ravens' turnovers. But in the first half the Ravens scored 14 points off two Steelers' turnovers. Symetry!

But that was not all. there was the big play you mention, and there was the fact that the defense held the Ravens close to zero yards for the entire 3rd quarter. If you want to credit the Pittsburgh victory to luck, there was Boldin dropping the ball at the end zone. For a top receiver not to make a catch like that is very, very rare.

I shoulnd't be optimistic for the AFC championship, but then I remind myself the Jets are their own worst enemy and will find a way to blow it.

If the Steelers win, I'm a lot elss optimistic about their prospective opponent. If Rodgers plays another game as he did against the Falcons, the Packers will simply be unstoppable. Here's hoping it was a fluke.
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thecesspit
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January 17th, 2011 at 10:41:34 AM permalink
I question the holding call on the Raven run back for a TD. It was a pretty marginal call, considering the players had locked up and the block was continuing forwards, towards the ball carrier.

But thats the game.
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January 17th, 2011 at 10:46:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This is yet another near worthless Wizard of Vegas contest. The object it to specify the winning and losing teams in the 2011 Super Bowl. In the event two or more people pick the same outcome, then I will have to ask those in contention to specify a specific margin of victory before the game, the closest person to win. In the event nobody wins, but somebody picked the right two teams, but incorrectly predicted which team would win, then he shall win the contest.

The prize shall be something like a copy of my book, Wizard of Odds polo shirt, and a free lunch with yours truly. I'm flexible about substitutions if you already have, or don't want, any of the prizes.




Since there appears to be no vote shutoff date, I should wait until after the game to make my prediction. But having to vote with
imperfect knowledge, GB over PIT.
Mosca
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January 17th, 2011 at 10:54:13 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

I question the holding call on the Raven run back for a TD. It was a pretty marginal call, considering the players had locked up and the block was continuing forwards, towards the ball carrier.

But thats the game.



The officiating was terrible; both teams deserved better, IMO. But as far as favoring one or the other, I think it was about even in badness. Kevin VanValkenberg, writing for Ravens Insider, has a good take on it: you earn the right to have close calls go your way, by winning home field advantage during the regular season.

Five Things We Learned in the Ravens 31-24 Loss

5. As admirable as it is that the Ravens can win playoff games on the road, if they want to take the next step toward the Super Bowl, they need to take care of business and get a bye and a home playoff game in 2011.

At one point in the third quarter when the Ravens were melting down, the press box at Heinz Field was literally bouncing. It was a little like being in a tiny earthquake, except with a bad pop music soundtrack. Some 68,000 people were whipping those yellow towels around, snarling like bloodthirsty Romans at the Colosseum.

I'll never, ever be one of those people who buy into this idea that the referees are screwing the Ravens. In fact, I hate that attitude. It reflects one of my least favorite things about Baltimore, this whiny belief that no one wants to see the city succeed, and that the failures of its sports teams are always someone else's fault. The Ravens lost this game because they had an epic meltdown on offense in the third quarter, not because of any one call made by the officials. But I do believe emotion and atmosphere play a factor in the way games are officiated, and when the crowd starts going nuts, the officials get caught up that tidal wave of emotion. Studies show it's just a fact. You get more calls at home. That's one reason why you want home playoff games.

Does Marcus Smith get flagged for that holding penalty on Webb's punt return if it occurs at M&T Bank Stadium? Probably not. It was a really close call. Both guys were grabbing jerseys on that play, and the Steeler defender, Will Allen, flopped when he realized Webb was going to score. (Smart play by him. Christiano Renaldo would have been proud at that dive Allen took.) And maybe in a home game, the officials might take notice of the fact that Jarret Johnson was getting dragged to the ground and blatantly held there on the play before Mendenhall's touchdown run, a play where Terrence Cody was flagged for defensive holding on a run play, of all things.

But that's why home-field advantage is so important, and why the Ravens' loss to the Bengals early in the year truly did end up mattering, no matter how many times the Ravens said it didn't matter. That was the one truly bad loss of the season, a loss to an inferior team. If you want to make a Super Bowl run, you need to win as many games as possible to position yourself to play at home in the playoffs. That stuff matters.
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Nareed
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January 17th, 2011 at 10:56:27 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

I question the holding call on the Raven run back for a TD. It was a pretty marginal call, considering the players had locked up and the block was continuing forwards, towards the ball carrier.



A hold is a hold.

Haven't you ever seen a 13 men on the field penalty because the ball got snapped before someone could leave the field? That player dind't affect the play, not when he was off the field a fraction of a second after the snap. But that's the rule.

Back to Pittsburgh over Baltimore, there was more reason to question a pass interference call against the Ravens in Pitt's first offense. It did happen, but the Steelers' receiver also held the defender. Ideally the officials should have penalized both and replayed the down. In fact I don't recall there ever being an offensive and defensive pass interference calls for the same play.
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Nareed
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January 17th, 2011 at 11:05:53 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

The officiating was terrible; both teams deserved better, IMO. But as far as favoring one or the other, I think it was about even in badness. Kevin VanValkenberg, writing for Ravens Insider, has a good take on it: you earn the right to have close calls go your way, by winning home field advantage during the regular season.



I don't think the home team gets better calls from the officials, penalty calls or others, but that's beside the point. The point is that a good playoff team will overcome anything and reach the Superbowl. Proof, the Steelers went 3-0 on the road the last time they went to the big game. The Packers may do the same this year.

Of course, usually good playoff teams are also good overall teams. Meaning they play well in the regular season as well as the playoffs. Therefore they tend to have some home games at least. But you also have teams that stink during the playoffs. The old Cleveland Browns, for example (who are now the Ravens, BTW), the Eagles, the Colts and others. No matter how well they do in the season, come playoff time they fall apart, or they lose consistently. There are also teams that play better in the playoffs, like the Steelers, the Jets (this year), the Packers (again, this year) the 80s Broncos (except at the Superbowl), etc.
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thecesspit
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January 17th, 2011 at 11:20:28 AM permalink
I've seen offset penalties for pass interference one time, I think... though it might have been an illegal contact penalty and then an offensive pass interference.

I know a hold is a hold, but I am not sure that there was actually a hold on the Steeler in question at all. But I'm not the ref, and he was in a good position.
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Mosca
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January 17th, 2011 at 11:43:25 AM permalink
Quote: Nareed

I don't think the home team gets better calls from the officials, penalty calls or others, but that's beside the point. The point is that a good playoff team will overcome anything and reach the Superbowl. Proof, the Steelers went 3-0 on the road the last time they went to the big game. The Packers may do the same this year.

Of course, usually good playoff teams are also good overall teams. Meaning they play well in the regular season as well as the playoffs. Therefore they tend to have some home games at least. But you also have teams that stink during the playoffs. The old Cleveland Browns, for example (who are now the Ravens, BTW), the Eagles, the Colts and others. No matter how well they do in the season, come playoff time they fall apart, or they lose consistently. There are also teams that play better in the playoffs, like the Steelers, the Jets (this year), the Packers (again, this year) the 80s Broncos (except at the Superbowl), etc.



The original article included a link to the study of officiating: Science Daily: Officiating Bias, Influenced By Crowds, Affects Home Field Advantage

Absolutely, good teams overcome bad calls. Chuck Noll used to say that you had to play well enough to take the officials out of the game. Nevertheless, it's always better to make the other guy have to overcome it, if you can.
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Nareed
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January 17th, 2011 at 12:07:33 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

The original article included a link to the study of officiating: Science Daily: Officiating Bias, Influenced By Crowds, Affects Home Field Advantage



I'll look it up at home.

Fact is the next team that won't claim they've had one or more games "stolen" by bad calls from the officials will be the first. There's the infamous call of a fumble blown dead that saved the Broncos last season (well, gave them a chance to tie or win), and even with challenges and reviews there are stil lots of controversies.

Quote:

Absolutely, good teams overcome bad calls. Chuck Noll used to say that you had to play well enough to take the officials out of the game. Nevertheless, it's always better to make the other guy have to overcome it, if you can.



Sure, but who can tell ahead of time how the officials will rule? As it is they let some penalties pass, even when they're looking at them.
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SFB
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January 17th, 2011 at 12:40:49 PM permalink
Mosca said this:
Quote: Mosca

I'll never, ever be one of those people who buy into this idea that the referees are screwing the Ravens. In fact, I hate that attitude. It reflects one of my least favorite things about Baltimore, this whiny belief that no one wants to see the city succeed, and that the failures of its sports teams are always someone else's fault.



I agree with you. THey seem to whine to much. I stopped listening to the sports shows for that reason.

The Ravens:

1. Shouldn't have lost to the Bengals.
2. Shouldn't have lost to the Steelers at Home in December.
3. Play games that allows ONE play to determine the outcome. Score some POINTS!

It blows my prediction, I had Ravens-Packers. (not on the Wiz' site, however.)

SFB
Nareed
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January 17th, 2011 at 12:51:18 PM permalink
Quote: SFB

The Ravens:

1. Shouldn't have lost to the Bengals.



The way the Bengals played this year, no one but the Browns and the NFC West should have lost against them. But divisional matches are a funny thing.

Quote:

2. Shouldn't have lost to the Steelers at Home in December.



Maybe not. But they shoulnd't have won at Heinz field earlier in the season, so it balanced out.

Quote:

3. Play games that allows ONE play to determine the outcome. Score some POINTS!



No one should.

But then one of Nareed's Laws of Football says: Games lost in one play were lost by much more than the one play.

Meaning you should always take an early lead and keep it. Of course the other team has the same plan, and sometimes he has a bigger say baout it than your team does. So the secondary meaning is: you shouldn't do so badly that you spend the last minutes of the 4th quarter trying to do what you couldn't do the rest of the game.

And this again brings to mind the old military maxim: no plan survives contact with the enemy.
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Wizard
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January 17th, 2011 at 9:41:09 PM permalink
Here are some statistics from 2000 week to 2010 week 15:

Average away penalties per game: 6.43
Average home penalties per game: 6.04
Average away penalty yards per game: 52.49
Average home penalty yards per game: 49.68

So just a 2.8 penalty yards per game difference in favor of home teams. That knife cuts both ways.
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Nareed
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January 17th, 2011 at 9:50:17 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

So just a 2.8 penalty yards per game difference in favor of home teams. That knife cuts both ways.



Penalty yards may not be a good measure. While most penalties have a fixed yardage assessed, some like pass interference do not. Also they all suffer when called near the goal line, where a hold and an illegal procedure both net half the distance to the goal. Finally, intentional grounding carries a loss of down or, if done within one's own end zone, a safety, in addition to or besides the yardage lost.

Hey, it's a complicated game!
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Wizard
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January 17th, 2011 at 10:04:39 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

Penalty yards may not be a good measure. While most penalties have a fixed yardage assessed, some like pass interference do not. Also they all suffer when called near the goal line, where a hold and an illegal procedure both net half the distance to the goal. Finally, intentional grounding carries a loss of down or, if done within one's own end zone, a safety, in addition to or besides the yardage lost.

Hey, it's a complicated game!



Good points. I'd argue those factors cut both ways about about equally, but don't have statistics in my back pocket to prove it.
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clarkacal
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January 17th, 2011 at 10:10:54 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed


In fact I don't recall there ever being an offensive and defensive pass interference calls for the same play.



I saw it happen in a bowl game this year. I can't remember which one though. Never seen it before that though.
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January 17th, 2011 at 10:16:38 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Good points. I'd argue those factors cut both ways about about equally, but don't have statistics in my back pocket to prove it.



I agree. I think the officials are impartial.

They err sometimes, naturally. But overall if a team has too many penalties called against them it's because they're playing dirty, or at least dirtier. Close rivals, like the Ravens and Steelers, tend to play dirtier when facing each otehr. And the Steelers ahve been particularly prone to stupid penalties this year.
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January 19th, 2011 at 12:55:22 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Me and my dad were talking about what we thought the best outcome for Jets/Patriots would have been; we finally decided that we wanted the Jets to break Brady's arm, and the Pats win. Now, it's all in jest, dark humor and all, no one really wants to see a guy injured. (Or is it hurt? Gotta call James Harrison and get the difference.) But we didn't want to have to root for the Jets.q]

As a lifelong fan and participant of sports, I've always prided myself on my ferocity vs. sportsmanship. I ALWAYS want to hurt someone (knocking someones breath out might think them twice about running up the middle, a charlie-horse inducing hip check might remind them not to get fancy along the boards) but NEVER want to injure someone (we all have wifes/mothers/children at home, or work/school to go to tomorrow). I, like you, would never want to see a person who sacrifices so much of their life for our entertainment receive severe, life-altering or life-ceasing injury.

However, I'm not God nor a superhero, and my words have absolutely zero power in affecting the many random outcomes of the zillion or so plays throughout professional sports. With that being said, I can with clear conscience hope that sometime in the many hundreds of plays that Brady has left in his career he will be hit with such force as to snap him in twain, thereby relieving myself of ever having to see his pompous, smug, girl-hair adorned head ever again. (Not really, but really. Not serious, but I am.)

And not to derail this even further as my comments dont really have anything to do with picks (sorry ><) but does it seem to any of you that since this crackdown on 'vicious hits' that there has been an explosion of injuries from these very hits? I cant tell if it true, or if it just seems that way due to the attention, but it seems like one of the front runners for yards gained from scrimmage is the guy pushing the gurney.

Packers over Steelers, 31-30. Now I dont feel so bad =P

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dm
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January 19th, 2011 at 1:55:18 PM permalink
Quote: Nareed

A hold is a hold.

Haven't you ever seen a 13 men on the field penalty because the ball got snapped before someone could leave the field? That player dind't affect the play, not when he was off the field a fraction of a second after the snap. But that's the rule.

Back to Pittsburgh over Baltimore, there was more reason to question a pass interference call against the Ravens in Pitt's first offense. It did happen, but the Steelers' receiver also held the defender. Ideally the officials should have penalized both and replayed the down. In fact I don't recall there ever being an offensive and defensive pass interference calls for the same play.




Disagree. A hold is only a hold if the flag is thrown. Many clear holds are missed, while quite a few called holds are pretty questionable . Refs do get fooled by the floppers occasionally or just see it wrong. I remember at the time that I thought the Ravens
bore the brunt of the poor officiating.
Wizard
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Wizard
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January 23rd, 2011 at 9:43:20 PM permalink
We have a winner in Mosca. Congratulations!

Pick By
Steelers over Packers. Mosca


Per my rules, the last man standing would win, and nobody else is left.

Here is a little info about our winner. Mosca is a very active member, with 789 posts and 30 threads started. His/her last thread started was a movie review of Inception, which I agree with 100%!

I'll work out the prize with Mosca, but it will at least involve a dinner for two at any restaurant of his/her choice at the Red Rock (where I'm still trying to burn off my points).

I'm very glad one of my best contributors won. Again, congratulations Mosca!
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Croupier
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January 23rd, 2011 at 9:44:44 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

We have a winner in Mosca. Congratulations!

Pick By
Steelers over Packers. Mosca




Congrats Mosca!!!!
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boymimbo
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January 23rd, 2011 at 9:47:26 PM permalink
Congrats Mosca! Both games today were closer than I thought they would be after the first half (I guess that's why they play two halves!!!!)
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Mosca
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January 24th, 2011 at 11:18:41 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

We have a winner in Mosca. Congratulations!

Pick By
Steelers over Packers. Mosca


Per my rules, the last man standing would win, and nobody else is left.

Here is a little info about our winner. Mosca is a very active member, with 789 posts and 30 threads started. His/her last thread started was a movie review of Inception, which I agree with 100%!

I'll work out the prize with Mosca, but it will at least involve a dinner for two at any restaurant of his/her choice at the Red Rock (where I'm still trying to burn off my points).

I'm very glad one of my best contributors won. Again, congratulations Mosca!



Thank you for the kind words, Wizard. I wish I could live up to the "best contributor" label, but I sometimes fall into the gutter, against my better nature and instincts.

I bought the book, so I don't need another.
The polo shirt... hmmm. I'd have to request a 3X, and that's probably a special order.
Lunch at Red Rock, that would be cool, but I don't know when we'll be in Vegas next; most vacation time is spent taking the Mosquette to and from university, because she didn't want to go near home.


You know, I do OK in this world, all things considered. I'm blessed with having few needs; I like nice stuff, but I'm not wedded to it. I live modestly, and middle class comfort suits my nature. I enjoy gambling, but I'm not one of those people who dream about casinos; my hands aren't shaking if I don't get to the games every week, or every month.

But I know some people whose lives have been ruined by gambling. I have a customer who lost his wife and is losing his business. I have a friend whose husband lost his job, but she holds a blue Mohegan card and is up there playing slots a few times a week. Mrs and I hear about the jackpots, but we all know how many times you have to push that "max bet" button to win that many jackpots. They have a daughter same age as ours, she's in college, too. For now.


So, what I think I'm going to request as a prize is a donation to Gambler's Anonymous, in whatever amount it would have cost you to give the award. Because what comes to me and the rest of us as a pleasure sometimes comes to others at great cost. It's not a lot, I know. But a little plus a little plus a little is a lot.

If you know something about GA that I don't, that makes you not want to contribute to them, then you would also probably know a different organization that does what I think GA does. That would be fine with me.

Deal?
A falling knife has no handle.
Wizard
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January 24th, 2011 at 12:04:10 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

If you know something about GA that I don't, that makes you not want to contribute to them, then you would also probably know a different organization that does what I think GA does. That would be fine with me.

Deal?



Deal! I'll make a $250 donation. I get asked sometimes why I don't promote GA with a link, as most gambling sites do. My reason is I don't agree with steps 2, 3, and 11 of their 12 step program.

2. Came to believe that a Power greater than ourselves could restore us to sanity.

3. Made a decision to turn our will and our lives over to the care of God as we understood Him.

11. Sought through prayer and meditation to improve our conscious contact with God as we understood Him, praying only for knowledge of His will for us and the power to carry that out.

However, I have to admit the program has helped many. An atheist friend of mine is in alcoholics/narcotics anonymous. I asked him if the steps above bothered him and he waived it off as a silly question. He said that for him AA itself was the "higher power" he needed to quit. I then asked if the group was oppressive in getting across a religious agenda, and he said not at all.

In the name of the greater good, I will happily make the donation.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Croupier
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January 24th, 2011 at 12:05:33 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca


So, what I think I'm going to request as a prize is a donation to Gambler's Anonymous, in whatever amount it would have cost you to give the award. Because what comes to me and the rest of us as a pleasure sometimes comes to others at great cost. It's not a lot, I know. But a little plus a little plus a little is a lot.

If you know something about GA that I don't, that makes you not want to contribute to them, then you would also probably know a different organization that does what I think GA does. That would be fine with me.

Deal?



Mosca - you are a class act, and it is an absolute pleasure to have you as part of this community. I feel priviliged by association.
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SFB
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January 24th, 2011 at 1:09:45 PM permalink
Wiz:

I haven't had the chance to address you directly yet, and I have something to say about this:

Quote: Wiz

However, I have to admit the program has helped many. An atheist friend of mine is in alcoholics/narcotics anonymous. I asked him if the steps above bothered him and he waived it off as a silly question. He said that for him AA itself was the "higher power" he needed to quit. I then asked if the group was oppressive in getting across a religious agenda, and he said not at all.



Many of the groups (AA, GA, SA, NA, etc) are not in on the "higher power" oppression. They would not survive if they were oppressive.

To the addicted, the "higher power" allows someone else to be at fault, and many addicted are easy to lay blame elsewhere. If they give it over to the "Higher Power" the choice to do the addicted activity today, then they may, NOT, choose to do that activity today. Sort of weird that, but it works for many. Not all, but many, searching for a solution to thier addiction.

Mosca offered a sweet solution to the winner of this bet. My hats off to him.

SFB
Mosca
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January 24th, 2011 at 1:11:00 PM permalink
Thanks, Croupier!

I thought about this for a while. The Mrs and I have talked a lot about our friend the slot player, whose husband got downsized. And I was talking to my friend the pawn shop owner; he self-banned from PA casinos, but it didn't help, he just drove to AC on the weekends. He couldn't bring himself to self-ban everywhere. If you got the itch, you have to scratch.

Wiz, my brother was AA for most of his adult life, and while he was somewhat devout, many whom he helped were not. It didn't seem to matter. As you may know, I believe the same way you do. Thanks for agreeing to the prize!
A falling knife has no handle.
AZDuffman
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January 24th, 2011 at 1:21:39 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


However, I have to admit the program has helped many. An atheist friend of mine is in alcoholics/narcotics anonymous. I asked him if the steps above bothered him and he waived it off as a silly question. He said that for him AA itself was the "higher power" he needed to quit. I then asked if the group was oppressive in getting across a religious agenda, and he said not at all.

In the name of the greater good, I will happily make the donation.



I applaud your friend's attitude. The "higher power" can be God, AA, or "mother nature" if people prefer. You don't need to be a churchgoer to believe in this. You just need to admit that you as an individual are not in control of everything nor is mankind as a group in complete control. Instructive is to look at the global warming debate. The angry, crazy side are the ones who think WE caused the issue (as opposed to the sun changing or anything else) and WE can stop it (as if global temps have been stable over time.) The skeptics OTOH are more laid back and their anger is more directed at the believers who want to take away freedoms because "we have to do somehting."

I am not a churchgoer but do believe I have been put in various places and situations for a reason. That seems to be all AA is saying.

Oh, and good for you both for the wonderful idea on what to do as a prize.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
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January 24th, 2011 at 1:34:44 PM permalink
Quote: clarkacal

I saw it happen in a bowl game this year. I can't remember which one though. Never seen it before that though.



I have definitely seen it. I can't remember when, though.
boymimbo
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January 24th, 2011 at 2:50:35 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Deal! I'll make a $250 donation. I get asked sometimes why I don't promote GA with a link, as most gambling sites do. My reason is I don't agree with steps 2, 3, and 11 of their 12 step program.

In the name of the greater good, I will happily make the donation.



Wow. That is very much a class act by the Wizard and Mosca. Excellent!!!
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
Ayecarumba
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January 24th, 2011 at 4:18:51 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

So, what I think I'm going to request as a prize is a donation to Gambler's Anonymous, in whatever amount it would have cost you to give the award. Because what comes to me and the rest of us as a pleasure sometimes comes to others at great cost. It's not a lot, I know. But a little plus a little plus a little is a lot.

If you know something about GA that I don't, that makes you not want to contribute to them, then you would also probably know a different organization that does what I think GA does. That would be fine with me.

Deal?



Congratulations Mosca! Your generosity may save a life. I applaud you.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Ayecarumba
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August 23rd, 2011 at 6:17:47 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

This is yet another near worthless Wizard of Vegas contest. The object it to specify the winning and losing teams in the 2011 Super Bowl. In the event two or more people pick the same outcome, then I will have to ask those in contention to specify a specific margin of victory before the game, the closest person to win. In the event nobody wins, but somebody picked the right two teams, but incorrectly predicted which team would win, then he shall win the contest.

The prize shall be something like a copy of my book, Wizard of Odds polo shirt, and a free lunch with yours truly. I'm flexible about substitutions if you already have, or don't want, any of the prizes.



Hi Wizard. Will you be the prize sponsor for this year's "Predict the Teams to Make the Super Bowl near Worthless Wizard of Vegas Contest"?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
buzzpaff
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August 23rd, 2011 at 8:29:07 PM permalink
1985 chicago bears
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