Thunder vs Warriors (First 4 games of series )

This thread is just to discuss the theoretical chances/odds of the first 4 games in the series between Thunder and Warriors.

------------------
Assumptions:

If all the games were on neutral ground then the Warriors would be -3.0 for each game.
Therefore:

Warriors @ home -7.0***
Thunder @ home -1.0***

***: These spread(s) can/may be updated and changed prior to the commencement of the first game.

Warriors @ home are about 73.86%^^^ to win a game, per game
Thunder @ home are about 51.75%^^^ to win a game, per game

^^^see: WoO link below (under the heading, 'betting the money line')

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nba/

---------------------------
Odds to win, in the first 4 games (from OKC Thunder point of view):

0 out of 4 games: ~ $7.87

1 out of 4 games: ~ $2.76

2 out of 4 games: ~ $2.82

3 out of 4 games: ~ $7.27

4 out of 4 games: ~ $54.65

With at least one website you can get OKC @ $81, to win the first 4 games so that is where the 'best' value is with a theoretical edge of ~ 48%, the value of the OKC @ $81 bet is almost 'wiped out', if the 'neutral' spread per game goes to + 4.0 for them, the odds of OKC winning the first 4 games increases to ~ $78.14, if that happens

The next 'best' value bet is, series being completed in 4 games @ $7.00, which is a bit better than 1.5% theoretical edge.

NB: if the Warriors become a - 3.5 'neutral favourite' or better, the $7.50 offered to win on them in 4 games becomes a good bet too.

------------------------------

Even though it probably won't win, I am going to have $50 OKC @ $81 to win in 4 games, and I will also have $175 @ $7.00, that the series will complete in 4 games.
-----------------------------

Please feel free to send me different 'realistic' theoretical spreads for this series , and I will do my best to integrate them into new chances for the first 4 games.
------------------------------

The only problem I have with your analysis is that each game is NOT really independent of the others. If OKC wins the first 2 games, the likelihood is that GS suffered an injury, and games 3 and 4 would likely have OKC as favorites, not underdogs. Even without the injury angle, OKC winning 2 in GS is enough to show that they are for real and tilt the odds on subsequent games.

Quote: SOOPOO

The only problem I have with your analysis is that each game is NOT really independent of the others. If OKC wins the first 2 games, the likelihood is that GS suffered an injury, and games 3 and 4 would likely have OKC as favorites, not underdogs. Even without the injury angle, OKC winning 2 in GS is enough to show that they are for real and tilt the odds on subsequent games.

Thanks SOOPOO, Yes you are right there, these are just for a bit of fun (but even with my 'fun bets', I like to do them 'semi-seriously')

Also, I think the WoO data that I have been using goes through '87 to 2006 seasons,, so even though it is extensive data, it is not current (because I am too lazy to get the latest data, and work it out myself)

Lastly, I meant to put a disclaimer*** (or similar) in the original post saying something like, 'if the average closing line for each game of the series differ by more than .5 pt either side per game to the line that I have posted, then the value of the bet will be change...' (or something like that)

***: I should have also put in the disclaimer, that this post is Not taking into account many variables. eg NEW Injuries before, during and between games.

Thanks again for your post,

Continuation of Original Post (only doing 'total games in series' chances now):
------------------

Assumption(s):

OKC has won game 1

(a) Warriors are on average 3 pt favourites on 'neutral ground' for the rest of the series

(b) Warriors are on average 4 pt ... " "

(c) Warriors are on average 4.5 pt ... " "

(d) Warriors are on average 5 pt ..." "

most assumptions in original post are also applicable
---------------
'Total games in series' chances

(a)
4 games: ~ 7.00%
5 games: ~ 21.28%
6 games: ~ 35.85%
7 games: ~ 35.87%


(b)
4 games: ~ 5.66%
5 games: ~ 21.9%
6 games: ~ 36.22%
7 games: ~ 36.22%


(c)
4 games: ~ 5.05%
5 games: ~ 22.37%
6 games: ~ 36.35%
7 games: ~ 36.23%


(d)
4 games: ~ 4.49%
5 games: ~ 22.93%
6 games: ~ 36.45%
7 games: ~ 36.13%

-----------------------

Update:

https://tatts.com/sports/basketball/nba/nba-playoff-series

you can now get these prices at the link above:

4 games: $21

5 games: $5.00***

6 games: $2.25

7 games: $2.50

***: This is the new good theoretical EV bet, which is between ~ 6.4% and ~ 14.65%, using the figures in (a) to (d) from the previous post (these T EV's are only correct for the lines mentioned in the previous post)

ps 4 games is also good value, if the average line for OKC is +4.5 pt 'neutral ground' (or better) for the rest of the series.

Here are the new series betting chances

NB: All lines are from the Warriors's point of view

(a) Average of 3.0 pt 'neutral favourite', for the rest of the series (line used in original post)

4 games: ~ 0%
5 games: ~ 24.20%
6 games: ~ 37.72%
7 games: ~ 38.08%

(b) " " ...5..5 pt 'neutral fav'... " "

4 games: ~ 0%
5 games: ~ 27.03%
6 games: ~ 37.05%
7 games: ~ 35.91%

(c) " " ...6 pt ... " "

4 games: ~ 0%
5 games: ~ 28.07%
6 games: ~ 36.85%
7 games: ~ 35.07%

(d) " " ... 6.5 pt ... " "

4 games: ~ 0%
5 games: ~ 29.91%
6 games: ~ 36.52%
7 games: ~ 33.57%


--------------------

The '5 games' series is the only one with any potential t. 'value'***, see odds below:

***: Only if the average 'neutral game' pts for the Warriors is - 6.5 (or more) for the rest of the series

The odds are

5 games: $3.50, 6 games: $2.40, and 7 games: $2.40