2016 MLB Money Line Picks

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May 12th, 2016 at 3:07:28 PM permalink

No picks today?

All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

GWAE

GWAE

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May 13th, 2016 at 1:30:41 AM permalink

Steel didn't log in yesterday. Hope everything is ok with him.

Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW

steeldco

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May 13th, 2016 at 5:27:10 AM permalink

Sorry about yesterday. The mother-in-law fell and broker her ankle. Keep in mind that I'm older than dirt......imagine her age and the burden she now has for 8 weeks or so. Tough go for her and the family.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 13th, 2016 at 5:58:17 AM permalink

05/11/16 Results:
Cubs -255
Twins -100
White Sox -700
Diamondbacks -700
Rays -100
Royals 945
Nationals 100
Brewers -700
Athletics -700
Cardinals 111

Yesterday's results: -2,099
+130dogs -1,855
Other dogs -89
Favorites -155
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total 11,065
+130dogs -756
Other dogs 1,582
Favorites 1,146
Focus Picks 9,093

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 13th, 2016 at 7:52:51 AM permalink

05/13/16 Picks:
Marlins 156 7X's
Yankees 132 7X's
Tigers 139 7X's
Twins 139 7X's
Astros 133 7X's
Athletics 111
Rangers -103
Padres 128
Braves 154 7X's
Rockies 111
Cardinals 115
Angels 144 7X's

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

TwoFeathersATL

TwoFeathersATL

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May 13th, 2016 at 7:57:43 AM permalink

It's like a Marty!

By all means, don't be shy ;-)

Do you pray?

<edit> Sorry to hear about Mom-in-Law ankle.

Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F

beachbumbabs

beachbumbabs

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May 13th, 2016 at 10:41:57 AM permalink

steeld,

Sorry about the M-I-L; bad injury at her (assumed) age.

The dogs will rise again! Such an interesting thread; really appreciate you keeping us informed on both the pre-game picks and the results.

If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

steeldco

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May 13th, 2016 at 10:47:07 AM permalink

Quote: beachbumbabs
steeld,

Sorry about the M-I-L; bad injury at her (assumed) age.

The dogs will rise again! Such an interesting thread; really appreciate you keeping us informed on both the pre-game picks and the results.

Hi beachbumbabs, thanks for sentiment. She's a pretty tough cookie though. She'll be OK.
They will rise. A winning streak is due.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

AZDuffman

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May 13th, 2016 at 3:03:45 PM permalink

Quote: steeldco
Sorry about yesterday. The mother-in-law fell and broker her ankle. Keep in mind that I'm older than dirt......imagine her age and the burden she now has for 8 weeks or so. Tough go for her and the family.

Hope for a speedy and smooth recovery.

All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

steeldco

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May 13th, 2016 at 3:05:11 PM permalink

Thanks AZDuffman. Good thoughts are always welcome!

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

lilredrooster

lilredrooster

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May 13th, 2016 at 3:40:56 PM permalink

Mr. steeldco: I have a question for you and for anyone else following this thread. How do you evaluate a pitcher who is facing his first major league start having only previously pitched in the minors? Would you say that his first start will be totally unpredictable, or that he is likely to pitch poorly, or the he is likely to pitch well if he has an impressive minor league record? My own take is that unless this guy has generated a lot of buzz is that he is likely to pitch poorly.

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him

TomG

TomG

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May 13th, 2016 at 5:07:34 PM permalink

Quote: steeldco
"In baseball, teams can get lucky or unlucky in a single game here and there, so one of the best ways to measure a team is by run differential, or the number of runs they are outscoring their opponents by overall. Using that measure, the Chicago Cubs are doing things on the scoreboard that are unheard of.

But in a small sample size, that luck is almost as likely to distort run differential as it is record. The Cubs and Pirates are nearly equal in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. But the Cubs are out scoring the Pirates by about one run per game. Mets pitchers have given up fewer home runs, fewer walks, and have more strikeouts, but have given up more runs because Cubs fielders are doing so much better. Yet for all of 2015, a much bigger sample size, the Mets were slightly ahead in defensive efficiency.

The Cubs have been very lucky to be able to put their hits and walks together in bunches, while also being lucky that their pitchers are able to make opponents hitters put the ball into their fielders gloves

steeldco

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May 14th, 2016 at 6:44:30 AM permalink

lilredrooster, I used to employee a simple rule when I was subjectively (currently rely strictly on stats) picking games and it did OK. That is if a pitcher was called up, I would pick that team if he was getting money and he was a round 1 thru 5 draft choice. Otherwise I threw the game out. I never took the other side because I always felt a decent pitcher had an edge if the hitters hadn't seen him before.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 14th, 2016 at 6:47:43 AM permalink

Quote: TomG
But in a small sample size, that luck is almost as likely to distort run differential as it is record. The Cubs and Pirates are nearly equal in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. But the Cubs are out scoring the Pirates by about one run per game. Mets pitchers have given up fewer home runs, fewer walks, and have more strikeouts, but have given up more runs because Cubs fielders are doing so much better. Yet for all of 2015, a much bigger sample size, the Mets were slightly ahead in defensive efficiency.

The Cubs have been very lucky to be able to put their hits and walks together in bunches, while also being lucky that their pitchers are able to make opponents hitters put the ball into their fielders gloves

TomG, stat wise the Cubs seem to be getting it done because they get starting opposing pitchers to 100 pitches thrown in the 5th. or 6th. innings. The opponents go to their bullpens early. This causes even bigger problems in the 2nd. and 3rd. game in a series for the Cubs opponents. Further compounded if they have mediocre bullpens. I think this Cubs team is for real and will end up being recognized as one of the best hitting teams in history. Time will tell.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

AZDuffman

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May 14th, 2016 at 6:50:22 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco
Further compounded if they have mediocre bullpens. I think this Cubs team is for real and will end up being recognized as one of the best hitting teams in history. Time will tell.

Should I buy the furnace concession in Hell before July while the price is low or not? Just asking!

All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

steeldco

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May 14th, 2016 at 6:52:01 AM permalink

05/13/16 Results:
Marlins -700
Yankees -700
Tigers -700
Twins -700
Astros 931
Athletics 111
Rangers -103
Padres -100
Braves -700
Rockies 111
Cardinals -100
Angels 1008

Yesterday's results: -1,642
+130dogs -1,561
Other dogs 22
Favorites -103
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total 9,423
+130dogs -2,317
Other dogs 1,604
Favorites 1,043
Focus Picks 9,093

This day's results points out the kind of crap that I find awfully interesting........I had 4 wins and 8 losses. However, if just one of the other +130dogs had hit then I would have ended up with only 5 wins and 7 losses, but around breakeven $ wise.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 14th, 2016 at 6:53:00 AM permalink

Yep.....the end of days is near......

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 14th, 2016 at 6:57:39 AM permalink

05/14/16 Picks:
Astros 110
Twins 175 7X's
Athletics 122
Rockies 118
Dodgers EV
Mariners -172

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

DrawingDead

DrawingDead

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May 14th, 2016 at 9:51:49 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco
Yep.....the end of days is near......

Nah, it will just seem that way & I'll wish it was finally time for the apocalypse already, if Cub worship has been further fueled to go into full warp drive, and by late September I'm being treated to ESPN doing a breathless 2 hour exclusive interview with Joe Maddon's cousin's niece's dog groomer inquiring whether she feels worthy of being that close to God.

Quote: Joe Maddon
I don't vibrate on that frequency.

Last edited by: DrawingDead on May 14, 2016

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.

beachmonkey

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May 14th, 2016 at 5:21:04 PM permalink

All I can say is thank God for God. oh and thanks Steeldco for selections

steeldco

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May 15th, 2016 at 4:47:17 AM permalink

05/14/16 Results:
Astros -100
Twins 1225
Athletics -100
Rockies 118
Dodgers 100
Mariners -172

Yesterday's results: 1,071
+130dogs 1,225
Other dogs 18
Favorites -172
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total 10,494
+130dogs -1,092
Other dogs 1,622
Favorites 871
Focus Picks 9,093

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 15th, 2016 at 4:55:31 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco
TomG, stat wise the Cubs seem to be getting it done because they get starting opposing pitchers to 100 pitches thrown in the 5th. or 6th. innings. The opponents go to their bullpens early. This causes even bigger problems in the 2nd. and 3rd. game in a series for the Cubs opponents. Further compounded if they have mediocre bullpens. I think this Cubs team is for real and will end up being recognized as one of the best hitting teams in history. Time will tell.

Yesterday was a good example. The Pirates' starting pitcher went 5.1 innings and had to throw 96 pitches to get there. If teams played the Cubs all of the time, their pitchers' arms would be falling off.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 15th, 2016 at 5:18:28 AM permalink

05/15/16 Picks:
Twins 136 7X's
Reds -101
Tigers 165 7X's
Red Sox 101
Padres 118
Braves 182 7X's
Rangers 162 7X's
Rockies 134 7X's
Giants 128
Mariners -160 FOCUS 7X's

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

AZDuffman

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May 15th, 2016 at 5:27:41 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco
Yesterday was a good example. The Pirates' starting pitcher went 5.1 innings and had to throw 96 pitches to get there. If teams played the Cubs all of the time, their pitchers' arms would be falling off.

Out of curiosity, and if it is proprietary and you do not want to share tell me to flip off, do you have your stats automated from baseball-reference.com or some similar site or do you have to do a lot of analyzing daily? Because that is one heckuva narrow stat to notice.

All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others

steeldco

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May 15th, 2016 at 5:37:21 AM permalink

Quote: AZDuffman
Out of curiosity, and if it is proprietary and you do not want to share tell me to flip off, do you have your stats automated from baseball-reference.com or some similar site or do you have to do a lot of analyzing daily? Because that is one heckuva narrow stat to notice.

I do obtain some of the stats from baseball_reference, however I also pick up some stats at other sources. Insofar as the Cubs stat is concerned, I wish that I could claim credit, but I cannot. It was just a follow up I did after I heard something on a national sports talk show that mentioned it.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 16th, 2016 at 6:42:24 AM permalink

05/15/16 Results:
Twins +952
Reds +100
Tigers +1155
Red Sox +101
Padres -100
Braves -700
Rangers +1134
Rockies +938
Giants +128
Mariners -1120

Yesterday's results: +2,588
+130dogs +3,479
Other dogs +129
Favorites +100
Focus Picks -1,120

YTD Total +13,082
+130dogs +2,387
Other dogs +1,751
Favorites +971
Focus Picks +7,973

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 16th, 2016 at 7:00:46 AM permalink

05/16/16 Picks:
Reds 145 7X's
Phillies 124
Royals 118 FOCUS 7X's
Rays 112
Twins 140 7X's
Angels 183 7X's

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

DrawingDead

DrawingDead

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May 16th, 2016 at 5:05:27 PM permalink

Yes the CHC OBP (on base percentage) to start the season this year has been a topic remarked on a lot. Because it is remarkable. Both because it is so high, and also such a big contrast from last year when they were much more of a feast or famine, home run or strikeout offense. The question about it one might have would be whether one thinks that is due to something in particular that they're doing that is likely to be sustained throughout the season.

Maybe you have a different take on it, but personally I'm not quite ready just yet to definitely conclude that they will necessarily even be the best baseball team in Chicago four and a half or five months from now. But they were bet down heavily, to a truly amazing extent, in the future book odds as overwhelming chalk for the NL Central and for winning the National League and the World Series, to a level that you wouldn't generally expect to see if someone dug up and resurrected the 1927 Yankees and plopped them into Wrigley. And of course their start so far hasn't exactly shooed away that enthusiasm. We shall see.

Suck dope, watch TV, make up stuff, be somebody on the internet.

steeldco

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May 17th, 2016 at 5:06:08 AM permalink

05/16/16 Results:
Reds -700
Phillies -100
Royals 0
Rays +112
Twins -700
Angels +1281

Yesterday's results: -107
+130dogs -119
Other dogs +12
Favorites 0
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +12,975
+130dogs +2,268
Other dogs +1,763
Favorites +971
Focus Picks +7,973

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 17th, 2016 at 5:47:29 AM permalink

05/17/16 Picks:
Phillies 109
Braves 175 7X's
Rays 134 7X's
Twins 105
Brewers 184 7X's
White Sox -103
Royals 118
Yankees 114

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

RTDDTT

RTDDTT

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May 17th, 2016 at 8:20:44 PM permalink

I missed something. I just started following your picks Steel, but how do we know which are your focus picks?

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 3:36:06 AM permalink

RTDDTT, they would be labeled as "Focus". They do not occur every day.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

BTLWI

BTLWI

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May 18th, 2016 at 3:36:51 AM permalink

What does that term mean?

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 3:48:03 AM permalink

No real meaning to it. I just had to come up with a name for that particular group of picks.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 3:48:56 AM permalink

05/17/16 Results:
Phillies +109
Braves -700
Rays +938
Twins -100
Brewers +1288
White Sox -103
Royals +118
Yankees -100

Yesterday's results: +1,450
+130dogs +1,526
Other dogs +27
Favorites -103
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +14,425
+130dogs +3,794
Other dogs +1,790
Favorites +868
Focus Picks +7,973

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 4:10:58 AM permalink

05/18/16 Picks:
Twins 146 7X's
Red Sox -102
Rangers 141 7X's
Braves 180 7X's
Mariners 107
Rays 116
Reds 131 7X's
Diamondbacks 127
Dodgers -101
Padres 121

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 4:14:44 AM permalink

Just for the hell of it, I took a look at how teams, as +130dog picks, have done YTD. A couple of surprises.....
Rockies $5,313.00
Angels $2,289.00
Brewers $2,275.00
Orioles $2,268.00
Red Sox $1,351.00
Rays $1,260.00
Astros $1,225.00
Tigers $1,050.00
Mets $987.00
Phillies $931.00
Mariners $924.00
Diamondbacks $805.00
Athletics $427.00
Pirates $336.00
Padres $315.00
Twins -$154.00
White Sox -$266.00
Rangers -$266.00
Royals -$455.00
Marlins -$483.00
Yankees -$1,400.00
Dodgers -$1,400.00
Giants -$1,400.00
Nationals -$2,100.00
Braves -$3,990.00
Reds -$6,048.00

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 4:16:16 AM permalink

Here's how I've done in total, by day. Every day should be a weekend..............

Friday +2,460
Monday +419
Saturday +4,506
Sunday +4,743
Thursday +1,745
Tuesday +1,810
Wednesday -1,258
Grand Total +14,425

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

beachmonkey

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May 18th, 2016 at 5:00:33 AM permalink

Quote: steeldco
Just for the hell of it, I took a look at how teams, as +130dog picks, have done YTD. A couple of surprises.....
Rockies $5,313.00
Angels $2,289.00
Brewers $2,275.00
Orioles $2,268.00
Red Sox $1,351.00
Rays $1,260.00
Astros $1,225.00
Tigers $1,050.00
Mets $987.00
Phillies $931.00
Mariners $924.00
Diamondbacks $805.00
Athletics $427.00
Pirates $336.00
Padres $315.00
Twins -$154.00
White Sox -$266.00
Rangers -$266.00
Royals -$455.00
Marlins -$483.00
Yankees -$1,400.00
Dodgers -$1,400.00
Giants -$1,400.00
Nationals -$2,100.00
Braves -$3,990.00
Reds -$6,048.00

This is good. Have you tried to put all your data on a spreedsheet from last few years to this day, then see there w/l/l/l/ /w/w/w etc for each team listed above on team by team basis ie marlins w.w.ww.NB.w.llwl.NB.wlwl etc. streakes etc also list non selection days etc . or is that info overload?

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 5:17:52 AM permalink

beachmonkey, I took a quick look at doing what you requested, but it would be a bit of a task. Can't do it today. Maybe in the future.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 5:40:07 AM permalink

The following teams have not won when picked as a +130dog this year:
Dodgers -1400
Giants -1400
Nationals -2100
Yankees -1400

The following teams have not lost when picked as a +130dog this year:
Angels +2289
Mariners +924
Mets +987
Orioles +2268

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 5:52:35 AM permalink

Here's the +130dog win rate by team:
Angels 100.00%
Astros 66.67%
Athletics 42.86%
Braves 12.50%
Brewers 57.14%
Diamondbacks 50.00%
Dodgers 0.00%
Giants 0.00%
Mariners 100.00%
Marlins 33.33%
Mets 100.00%
Nationals 0.00%
Orioles 100.00%
Padres 40.00%
Phillies 50.00%
Pirates 50.00%
Rangers 33.33%
Rays 66.67%
Red Sox 66.67%
Reds 9.09%
Rockies 83.33%
Royals 33.33%
Tigers 50.00%
Twins 37.50%
White Sox 33.33%
Yankees 0.00%

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

beachmonkey

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May 18th, 2016 at 6:46:21 AM permalink

NICE. gives streak anti streak freaks lots of fun time. I can see huge combinations already .Thanks . Oh previous post was only a question not a request. more so to see if you look at that combo of information in your selection etc. Yes would take a long time , I had a shot at it by back track all old posts ... hmmm did my head in . Have fun thanks

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 6:51:20 AM permalink

I may be able to get it, but my algorithms revolve around individual stats within teams. I have nothing that involves team stats within the algorithms so it has not been a focus of mine.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco

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May 18th, 2016 at 7:08:45 AM permalink

Quote: beachmonkey
NICE. gives streak anti streak freaks lots of fun time. I can see huge combinations already .Thanks . Oh previous post was only a question not a request. more so to see if you look at that combo of information in your selection etc. Yes would take a long time , I had a shot at it by back track all old posts ... hmmm did my head in . Have fun thanks

Here's something that you can mull over......
Last year there were 5 teams that were perfect with a 100% win rate as +130dogs. This year there are 4. My guess would be that the 4 for this year will probably stay perfect for the rest of the year. The problem is that there are probably not a lot of remaining plays for these teams.

Again, the 4 for this year are:
Angels
Mariners
Mets
Orioles

Also, last year there were 16 teams that won at least 60% of the time as +130dogs. So far this year, there are 8. That would seem to tell me that the win rate will probably pick up for the next 2-3 weeks.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

beachmonkey

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Joined: May 13, 2015

May 19th, 2016 at 12:24:58 AM permalink

Cheers great info. Will be using as useful reference points on rest of season. I like to duck and weave on the streaks and anti streaks , as you are aware from my anti seven 130 bets every now and then. The above info should narrow down my hit and miss ratio re multi bets vs anti multi bets . Many thanks . enjoy your day

RTDDTT

RTDDTT

Threads: 0
Posts: 4

Joined: Jun 22, 2014

May 19th, 2016 at 7:07:11 AM permalink

Steel, do you have a cutoff time when you decide to make a wager on a 130+ dog? For example, 2 or 3 hrs. Before game time?

Also, is that the only filter - the odds?

steeldco

Threads: 52
Posts: 4914

Joined: Nov 30, 2011

May 19th, 2016 at 7:11:28 AM permalink

I do not have a cutoff time. Lines will change thru out the day and does not effect a pick. For example, if the Braves start out at +135 and are made a pick then they remain a pick even if the line becomes +125. Odds are not the only filter.

DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

steeldco