2016 MLB Money Line Picks

04/22/1 Results (BTW, # of winning days so far? 15. Losing days? 2)
 Yankees +104
 Mets +100
 Phillies +111
 Rangers -700
 Red Sox +966
 Orioles -100
 Pirates +120
 Angels -100

Yesterday's results: +501
+130dogs +266
Other dogs +135
Favorites +100
Focus Picks 0

YTD Total +20,123
+130dogs +12,488 <-----The ONLY picks worth playing. They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs +1,429
Favorites +1,838
Focus Picks +4,368

I found the following article at www.covers website. It was written by Matt Fargo.

The MLB Underdog Betting System
CE Manager 10 hours, 57 minutes ago
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Written by: Matt Fargo

Baseball betting is taking a greater interest in the sports wagering world but many people may be going about it the wrong way. Public perception is about taking the better and more popular teams and these teams are favored for a reason. And not only because they are superior. The linesmakers know which teams are going to be bet more than others so these teams become overinflated favorites. The key to being successful is avoiding that extra juice and win with the underdogs.

The underdogs to take interest are the ones that are priced between +120 and +150. This doesn't mean you can't go outside this range as I do numerous times but this is a core range that offers great value. Why you ask? First off, a team that is favored between -130 and -160 is better in the public eye and that alone offers tremendous value. The favorites here are not clearly superior. In baseball, there are so many variables that a team that is +150 is not that much more inferior and as we like to say, "Anything can happen".

Starting pitching plays the biggest role in these lines and with the rare exceptions, those starters are not going to give you quality starts every time out. Obviously, you want to catch them on that off night but on the same theory, the opponents' starting pitcher can just as easily go out and throw a gem. Finding them is the key. Taking into consideration lefty vs. righty splits, offensive tendencies, bullpens and streaks can make you come out with some excellent values and in turn, excellent wins.

Too many people get caught up in what a handicapper's winning percentage is in baseball which further explains that people do not understand betting baseball, as successful baseball handicapping is not a function of winning percentage. The average person thinks that hitting 60% in baseball is exceptional but playing -200 favorites over a course of 100 bets at $100 each would result in a net loss of $2,000. 67% is the break even point and winning two out of every three, not matter how good the teams are, is extremely tough.

Hitting 60% of plays involving favorites of -150 would be break even which is certainly better but far from ideal. Going the other way will show a severe variance. A handicapper playing underdogs of +110 would only need to hit at a rate of 47.7% to break even. Our systems like to take even bigger underdogs because the payouts are higher and the differences between the teams are not that huge. Here are the win percentages that a bettor would need to win in order to breakeven at a particular underdog line:

%Win Breakeven Line
50% Even
48% +109
46% +118
44% +127
42% +138
40% +150
38% +163
36% +178
34% +194
32% +212

So it is pretty clear that hitting less than 50% in baseball is not bad at all when betting underdogs. Averaging a +150 underdog would take only 4 out of 10 wins to break even so anything above and beyond that is profit right in the pocket. Don't get fooled by inflated winning percentages; they are meaningless because behind that percentage is a lot of lost juice.

**************************************************************************************************************************

In the past 2 MLB seasons, Matt hit 43% of his baseball plays overall. Some people will laugh at that. Sure if it was a percentage in basketball or football against the spread, he may be laughing at himself also. However, that percentage is based on every bet being an underdog. The result: +$17,019 of profit. Remember - High Return with Minimal Risk!

I throw out parlays for fun every few days. Generally I bet $2 each. Last night the Orioles losing cost me a 9, 7, and 6 team parlay. Their win would have made me over 1200. F them

Quote: GWAE

I throw out parlays for fun every few days. Generally I bet $2 each. Last night the Orioles losing cost me a 9, 7, and 6 team parlay. Their win would have made me over 1200. F them

I agree..... F the Orioles. Have them fly out to France, or something.

Quote: GWAE

I throw out parlays for fun every few days. Generally I bet $2 each. Last night the Orioles losing cost me a 9, 7, and 6 team parlay. Their win would have made me over 1200. F them

AND I think Yovani Gallardo really, really, really sucks!

Quote: steeldco

AND I think Yovani Gallardo really, really, really sucks!

I was happy to see him leave thr NL. He tore up the pirates.

That was the old Gallardo. The current version is really bad.

Today's Picks:
 Rays 133 7X's
 Athletics 136 7X's
 Twins 120
 White Sox -148 FOCUS 7X's
 Red Sox 108
 Rockies 119
 Giants 112

Where are you getting these odds at?

I use the lines from SBGGlobal.

Also, there are times where SBG Global is slow in posting a line on a game. In that case, I go to covers.com

To explain a bit. I use SGB Global solely because its format allows me to easily copy and paste into a spreadsheet that gets into my database. No other reason. Quick and easy is good. I won't put any more time into this than I do. I would think that you should be able to shop and, hopefully, get better lines.

Thanks for the reply

You're welcome!

Damn yankees

Quote: steeldco

Damn yankees

That phrase predates Baseball, bit it is still useful ;-)

04/23/16 Results:
 Rays -700
 Athletics -700
 Twins -100
 White Sox +700
 Red Sox -100
 Rockies -100
 Giants +112

Yesterday's results: -888
+130dogs -1,400
Other dogs -188
Favorites 0
Focus Picks +700

YTD Total +19,235
+130dogs +11,088 <-----The ONLY picks worth playing. They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs +1,241
Favorites +1,838
Focus Picks +5,068

Below are today's picks. As I look at them, I think it's going to be one of those days where I do not continually watch. I'll just get the results in the morning. They're just scary picks to me......but I'm sticking to the plan.

 Athletics 185 7X's
 Reds 162 7X's
 Braves 165 7X's
 Phillies 106
 Royals -150
 Marlins -101 7X's
 Padres 115

good man,great call. Might I say if you ever get the chance to read a book called the" way of the turtle" read it and you will understand the wisdom of the statement you made about stickinng to the plan. It is a true account of a very interesting stock market event. thanks and happy punting

Hey beachmonkey. Thanks. Some days I just need to close my eyes and assume it will work out........

Quote: beachmonkey

good man,great call. Might I say if you ever get the chance to read a book called the" way of the turtle" read it and you will understand the wisdom of the statement you made about stickinng to the plan. It is a true account of a very interesting stock market event. thanks and happy punting

Regarding "Way of the Turtle", although I haven't read it. I have seen a short synopsis. It does make sense.

Sorry. I guess I'm being scatter brained this morning, but you mentioned stock market. Have you seen my stock picks thread?

No I have not . I do tend to stay in the Aussie market . You know small pond and and know whats going on local etc. also no exchange rates which is a killer at the moment. Our Aussie $ will not be in parity again for a long while. Im a W. Gann fan as well which all relates to stock and your selections re MLB by the way. But forward the link or site and will look at it if it has strike rate you have on MLB , I will look hard at it... thanks once again for your hard work re MLB. If its not broken dont F##k with it is a great saying we have here. So as usual a few losses in a row is ok .Long haul . is the game. thanks .

This is in referance to The way of the turtle post by steeldco .that book saved my betting And stockmarket career, to know to stick to the formular and win in the end . Meanwhile all the other monkeys are jumping from this to that and losing money. etc. Worthwhile investment that book.

Quote: beachmonkey

No I have not . I do tend to stay in the Aussie market . You know small pond and and know whats going on local etc. also no exchange rates which is a killer at the moment. Our Aussie $ will not be in parity again for a long while. Im a W. Gann fan as well which all relates to stock and your selections re MLB by the way. But forward the link or site and will look at it if it has strike rate you have on MLB , I will look hard at it... thanks once again for your hard work re MLB. If its not broken dont F##k with it is a great saying we have here. So as usual a few losses in a row is ok .Long haul . is the game. thanks .

I think you'll like the stock market picks. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/11262-stock-picks

As you expected, you should have sat out today. Better luck tomorrow.

Thanks

Quote: steeldco

I think you'll like the stock market picks. https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/general/11262-stock-picks

Thanks for link

GWAE, yep, sometimes the old gut is right. We have now had 2 consecutive losing sessions on the +130 dogs. Last April we had one 2 day losing streak and one 3 day losing streak. I hope we start a new winning streak today.

04/24/16 Results are below. The Focus Picks continue to hit. The win rate on those for this year is 76.92%. Again, small sample size but I continue to get more comfortable with them.


 Athletics -700
 Reds -700
 Braves -700
 Phillies -100
 Royals +100
 Marlins +700
 Padres -100

Yesterday's results: -1,500
+130dogs -2,100
Other dogs -200
Favorites +100
Focus Picks +700

YTD Total +17,735
+130dogs +8,988
Other dogs +1,041
Favorites +1,938
Focus Picks +5,768

Today's Picks:
 White Sox 162 7X's
 Reds 175 7X's
 Orioles 121
 Braves 122
 Twins 129
 Rockies -120 FOCUS 7X's
 Cardinals 108
 Angels -123 FOCUS 7X's
 Astros 141 7X's
 Padres 183 7X's

"To Boldly Go Where No Man Has Ever Gone Before".

Lots of 7x picks there, best to you....

Yep. Kinda scary. Thanks for the kind words....

Quote: steeldco

Today's Picks:
 White Sox 162 7X's
 Reds 175 7X's
 Orioles 121
 Braves 122
 Twins 129
 Rockies -120 FOCUS 7X's
 Cardinals 108
 Angels -123 FOCUS 7X's
 Astros 141 7X's
 Padres 183 7X's

Geee are you martYing your 7X's ;-)

the 1st 19 days are in the books
my hubby has made way more bets than me but wanted to see your bets with just flat $100 units (and lay the favorites) and no 7X bets either (I still do not get that part)

I show
135 bets
won 85
lost
50
0.62962963 (that looks good)
the 130+ dogs
45 total bet
23 have won
0.511111111 (still good)

lots more season to go
Go Angels!!

here is my day/totals so far with all that requested


I even have a few friends that like to bet the sports games
but only in the $10 to $20 range so will add that in a week or two
Sally

Quote: GWAE

Geee are you martYing your 7X's ;-)

Nope. No diverging from the plan.

Quote: mustangsally

the 1st 19 days are in the books
my hubby has made way more bets than me but wanted to see your bets with just flat $100 units (and lay the favorites) and no 7X bets either (I still do not get that part)

I show
135 bets
won 85
lost
50
0.62962963 (that looks good)
the 130+ dogs
45 total bet
23 have won
0.511111111 (still good)

lots more season to go
Go Angels!!

here is my day/totals so far with all that requested


I even have a few friends that like to bet the sports games
but only in the $10 to $20 range so will add that in a week or two
Sally

Hey Sally, just so you know, from a financial perspective you are incorrectly computing the total return. In the scenario above that you laid out, your investment is the max amount out of your pocket, which is 1,100 (day bet of 04/08) - 221 (bankroll as of 04/07), or 879. Anything above that is house money. So the return is calculated as 5,187/879, or 590.10%.

Quote: steeldco

Quote: mustangsally

the 1st 19 days are in the books
my hubby has made way more bets than me but wanted to see your bets with just flat $100 units (and lay the favorites) and no 7X bets either (I still do not get that part)

I show
135 bets
won 85
lost
50
0.62962963 (that looks good)
the 130+ dogs
45 total bet
23 have won
0.511111111 (still good)

lots more season to go
Go Angels!!

here is my day/totals so far with all that requested


I even have a few friends that like to bet the sports games
but only in the $10 to $20 range so will add that in a week or two
Sally

Hey Sally, just so you know, from a financial perspective you are incorrectly computing the total return. In the scenario above that you laid out, your investment is the max amount out of your pocket, which is 1,100 (day bet of 04/08) - 221 (bankroll as of 04/07), or 879. Anything above that is house money. So the return is calculated as 5,187/879, or 590.10%.

BTW, your method of calculating total return is the one used by most touts. It is because, when they're losing, and most of them do, then the return as you calculated doesn't look as bad as it really is.

Quote: GWAE

Geee are you martYing your 7X's ;-)

BTW, since I'm nothing but stat focused, last year we had the below list of dates in which there were at least 4 +130dogspicked.
6 of those had days of 5 picks.


4/7/2015
4/8/2015
4/14/2015
4/17/2015
4/27/2015
4/28/2015
5/4/2015
5/10/2015
5/13/2015
5/16/2015
5/20/2015
5/24/2015
5/25/2015
5/26/2015
6/1/2015
6/8/2015
6/13/2015
6/14/2015
6/16/2015
6/18/2015
7/1/2015
7/2/2015
7/3/2015
7/5/2015
7/6/2015
7/11/2015

Quote: steeldco

BTW, since I'm nothing but stat focused, last year we had the below list of dates in which there were at least 4 +130dogspicked.
6 of those had days of 5 picks.


4/7/2015
4/8/2015
4/14/2015
4/17/2015
4/27/2015
4/28/2015
5/4/2015
5/10/2015
5/13/2015
5/16/2015
5/20/2015
5/24/2015
5/25/2015
5/26/2015
6/1/2015
6/8/2015
6/13/2015
6/14/2015
6/16/2015
6/18/2015
7/1/2015
7/2/2015
7/3/2015
7/5/2015
7/6/2015
7/11/2015

Also, so far this year, there were 5 +130dogs picked on 04/08 and there were 4 picked on 04/12.

I know you have a lot of those. I was just pulling your chain.

Yesterday was just one of those days that didn't look good from the onset. However I am sure you have had a bunch of days that looked like that and went well.

Have you ever done your stats based on a day of the week. I would be curious if your sundays were lower since that is usually the get aaway rest your starteRS day.

Quote: GWAE

I know you have a lot of those. I was just pulling your chain.

Yesterday was just one of those days that didn't look good from the onset. However I am sure you have had a bunch of days that looked like that and went well.

Have you ever done your stats based on a day of the week. I would be curious if your sundays were lower since that is usually the get aaway rest your starteRS day.

OK. Thanks. Below is a list by day. However, it is of all plays. If it is just the +130dogs that you're interested in then I would have to run a report.


Row Labels Sum of Net
Friday +4,488
Monday -637
Saturday +933
Sunday +3,611
Thursday +430
Tuesday +3,811
Wednesday +5,099
Grand Total +17,735

Here are the results, by day, for the +130dogs ONLY.


Row Labels Sum of Result
Sunday +392
Monday +168
Tuesday +3,227
Wednesday +3,430
Thursday -1,078
Friday +3,787
Saturday -938
Grand Total +8,988

Quote: steeldco

Here are the results, by day, for the +130dogs ONLY.


Row Labels Sum of Result
Sunday +392
Monday +168
Tuesday +3,227
Wednesday +3,430
Thursday -1,078
Friday +3,787
Saturday -938
Grand Total +8,988

After I thought about it. With many starters resting on Sunday that would bring the teams closer to even and the lines would probably reflect that. The friday/sat results are interesting to me. Friday 1st game of series and Saturday a day game in a lot if cases.

My analysis means nothing and my record is close to 40% but I thought I would throw it out there. If my record is 40% is that just as impressive as your 60%?

Quote: GWAE

After I thought about it. With many starters resting on Sunday that would bring the teams closer to even and the lines would probably reflect that. The friday/sat results are interesting to me. Friday 1st game of series and Saturday a day game in a lot if cases.

My analysis means nothing and my record is close to 40% but I thought I would throw it out there. If my record is 40% is that just as impressive as your 60%?

It could be if you're hitting all 2 to1 dogs.... :-)

Quote GWAE:
My analysis means nothing and my record is close to 40% but I thought I would throw it out there. If my record is 40% is that just as impressive as your 60%?

Quote: steeldco

It could be if you're hitting all 2 to1 dogs.... :-)

just for the record, GWAE may be delusional. My team of proffesionals has been watching him closely ;-! So far, just high on the Rascal Rating, but those are preliminary results. Jury still out ;-)

The upcoming days may lead to a 'sell', or a 'sell now,even at a loss', for this particular enterprise ;-)

<Edit> it's very hard to tell whether he's working on his porch, or watching the baseball lines....

Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Quote GWAE:
My analysis means nothing and my record is close to 40% but I thought I would throw it out there. If my record is 40% is that just as impressive as your 60%?

just for the record, GWAE may be delusional. My team of proffesionals has been watching him closely ;-! So far, just high on the Rascal Rating, but those are preliminary results. Jury still out ;-)

The upcoming days may lead to a 'sell', or a 'sell now,even at a loss', for this particular enterprise ;-)

<Edit> it's very hard to tell whether he's working on his porch, or watching the baseball lines....

I would love to be working on the porch but had stomach bug all weekend and couldn't stray more than 20 feet from the toilet. I am off on Mondaya but 80% chance of rain. Since I am installing tongue and groove I would prefer the wood to not get wet while installing. Porch is covered but will still get a little wet.

Hope you feel better (bettor) soon.
That guy drinking beer in a reaaaaaly comfy looking camp chair on your new porch.
Got no clue who he might be (hint: ask your wife ;-)
Just 2F

04/25/16 Results:
 White Sox +1134
 Reds -700
 Orioles -100
 Braves -100
 Twins +129
 Rockies -840
 Cardinals -100
 Angels +700
 Astros -700
 Padres -700

Yesterday's results: -1,277
+130dogs -966
Other dogs -171
Favorites 0
Focus Picks -140

YTD Total +16,458
+130dogs +8,022 <-----The ONLY picks worth playing. They ROCK! THE BEST MLB money line system anywhere!
Other dogs +870
Favorites +1,938
Focus Picks +5,628

Today's Picks:
 Phillies 188 7X's
 Blue Jays 107
 Reds 154 7X's
 Tigers 109
 Brewers 188 7X's
 Rangers 114
 Indians 106
 Rockies 123 7X's
 Diamondbacks 130 7X's
 Angels 109
 Mariners 120
 Padres 173 7X's