Moneylines in NFL nfl heavy dogs

I often see two touchdown dogs with money lines of 800 to 1000 which according to fair value money line charts including yours I believe should be at 600 ish or less. Then again I read that two touchdown dogs only win 5.15 percent of the time. So I can not figure out if these lines are good because they are trying to entice people to get on that side or not . Thanks for any input!

The "market" line is set to attract action. It is going to be worse than "fair" in order to provide some vig for the book, but can't be outrageously out of line or no one will bet it at all.

Yeah I see that, but for example here in this Wizard of Odds chart and in others I have seen a 14 point fair moneyline is 640 to 650 range but I see 14 point dogs at +850 and +900, for example which is an implied probability of around 10 percent. However I read in another article 14 point dogs only win outright 5.14 percent of this time. Not sure what to make of it

Quote: nojuice

Yeah I see that, but for example here in this Wizard of Odds chart https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/ and in others I have seen a 14 point fair moneyline is 640 to 650 range but I see 14 point dogs at +850 and +900, for example which is an implied probability of around 10 percent. However I read in another article 14 point dogs only win outright 5.14 percent of this time. Not sure what to make of it

I read those lines as the books willing to take a chance that this week, this team will not be part of the 5% to pull off an upset, and/or they have received action on the other side, where someone has put down big money to back the favorite for a small score... More likely the former than the latter.