2015 WoV Picks Game (Discussion Thread)

Quote: SOOPOO

No lines or O/U for Texans game

Quote: Mission146

I accept Terapined's Picks. Further, Knuckleball3 got some Picks in after the deadline and after Picks were posted. Personally, I lean towards accepting them, especially since he's eating an 0-5 for last week, but I'll open the matter for discussion.

Quote: MidwestAP

I fully support accepting late picks if no one else's picks have been posted yet. But once they are posted, it doesn't seem right to accept any additional picks. I don't think the circumstances of how well someone did the prior week should factor into the decision.

I'm quite certain you wouldn't (and shouldn't) consider it, if someone in contention, submitted their picks after all the others were posted in week 17.

terapined's situation sounds different. If I understand correctly, he sent in picks early, before you posted the lines, but with very clear instruction on what he wanted. In this case, I think they should be accepted.

That's my two cents, thanks for asking for feedback.

Quote: Mission146

You're welcome. I guess my reasoning is that this isn't a Week 17 situation, and there's no real way for him to benefit from knowing the Picks of other people.

Including myself, we have two votes for accept and one for do not accept. Let's see if one side or the other gets to three votes.

Quote: EdCollins

I agree with Midwest that accepting late picks after picks have already been posted is not right. It's definitely something we should not take lightly. And yet I also agree with Mission that in this case, with more than half of the season yet to go, there is no real way for him to benefit. (But he COULD benefit if this were Week 16 or 17 or even Week 15, depending upon the standings.)

So without seeing the picks, I would give him the benefit of the doubt and say let's accept them.

I also like the idea of NO further late picks from this point forward, no matter what.

Quote: Mission146

In that case:

Knuckleball3:

Bears -1 confidence
Raiders+3
Giants +3
Cowboys +6
Packers -2.5

Quote: Mission146

Another thing that occurred to me is that, given the fact that KB3 is currently in last place, it's actually +EV for anyone with any chance of winning to accept his Picks this time rather than him forfeit the game for three missed weeks.

Remember, that $25, 'You Suck,' prize does not affect what the winner gets paid. If the person in last loses more than $25, then it is simply incumbent upon me to send the winner that $25 and the person in last sends the rest. If the person in last loses less than $25, then I must send the winner that amount and send the person in last the difference.

Therefore, with exception to one or two people very close to last, everyone should actually WANT KB3 to stay in the game.

Quote: EdCollins

Only one player has been able to post a perfect 6-0 record and that was SOOPOO back in Week 1.

Quote: EdCollins

Aluisio and Genwyzgy are the only two players who each have had just ONE losing week. (Aluisio in Week 4 (2-4) and Genwyzgy in Week 5 (2-3)). Everyone else, including myself and MidwestAP, have had at least two losing weeks or more.

Quote: MidwestAP

I'm not sure I follow you on this. You have committed to pay out the $25 'You Suck' prize to last place (actually pay all or a portion of the $25 to first place), no matter who they are. So unless you are implying there are concerns collecting from KB3 (and I have no reason to believe this is the case), how is it positive EV to keep a player with a negative record alive, knowing that the longer they play the more their win percentage will gravitate toward approx 50%?

Quote: EdCollins

Midwest, for example has both the Raiders and the Eagles, with the Raiders being his Confidence Pick.

Quote: Ayecarumba

It is time to give serious thought to going for the "Middle" prize, or shooting for the top.

Hmmm... What are the important considerations?

Quote: MidwestAP

Obviously the most important consideration is who's on top and can you catch them? I tend to think not ;-)

Quote: Ayecarumba

Hehe... If there is a tie for the "Most Average", is the tie breaker Super Bowl predictions like the tie breaker for the top prize?

Quote: Mission146

Knuckleball3 submitted Picks after the deadline, but I remember explicitly saying that the previous time was the last time I was taking them.

Quote: Paradigm

To be clear, Knuckleball3 is in contention for the last place award ($25) despite being eliminated and not being eligible to make picks going forward, correct? Just trying to ascertain what my target is on the downside, seeings as the bottom of the pile seems more attainable than the top for me.

I will be shooting for the bottom going forward, of course picking losers is just as hard as picking winners, so I should float up to 50% with my new efforts...I am just that good at this NFL thingy!

Quote: Rule #5

5.) If a player fails to make picks for more than one week, he/she forfeits and will owe any monies lost to the winner(s).

***Any player missing two weeks will have the option of EITHER forfeiting immediately or accepting a record of 0-5 for the second missed week. If the player misses a third week, the forfeit is automatic.

***If a player forfeits or stops playing, then the record of that player will be locked in place, but the player will not receive any of the prizes

Quote: Mission146

I'm going to do this:

This is the first time (though I think I might have been above .500 at the end of every year) that I am running within spitting distance of the Top this late in the game. As you guys know, I am defending the prizes in this game, so now what I am going to do is post my Picks in the Official Thread prior to looking at anyone else's Picks, but AFTER the deadline.

I don't think anyone actually believes I would cheat, but I want to maintain the appearance of integrity in the unlikely event I win the game.

Finally, my participation is merely a defense. If I were to win, second place would be declared the winner and the payouts would be based on second place's record as the new first place record. I would simply not owe the $50.