steeldco
steeldco
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January 30th, 2015 at 10:19:08 AM permalink
I'm having a bit of a difficult time with deciding how to proceed in a Fantasy League pool that I am in and I would greatly appreciate any advice that can be offered up on this.

The gist of it is that I'm in a season long NFL fantasy league pool. I have been in 1st. place for about 6 weeks and have slow played the last few in the interest of letting the others fall out of the race with losses. We are now down to the final pick, the Super Bowl. Players are allowed to pick a side ATS, or pick the total, or pick a parlay, or any combination of those. They are only limited by the number of points they have.

The standings, and related points, are as follows (only 7 players remain):

Me=16,580 points
Player No. 2= 12,805 points
Player No. 3= 12,800 points
Player No. 4= 12,006 points
Player No. 5= 11,000 points
Player No. 6= 10,220 points
Player No. 7= 9,000 points

Only the top 5 will be in the money. The pot is split with the 2 top spots getting around 80%. I would like to not fall further than 3rd.

Any thoughts on how to play this?

Thanks!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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January 30th, 2015 at 10:54:27 AM permalink
One of my thoughts has been that players 6 and 7 are probably going to be all in since they have nothing to lose. I would expect one of them to win, so that would take player 6 to 20,440 points and player 7 to 18,000 points. I think that I would have to assume the worst, which would mean that one guy will have at least 20,440 points. Then of the next 4 players behind me, I would think that 2 would be winners. My problem is that I'm not sure if these 4 would consider going all in. Dunno......a little help please.

How should I play this?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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January 30th, 2015 at 10:56:01 AM permalink
Can I get a push on both the team pick and the total? Has that ever happened?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
wudged
wudged
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January 30th, 2015 at 11:03:58 AM permalink
You didn't specify how scoring is done. Is it like betting with -110 lines, or what?

The ones at the bottom could more than double their bankroll if they are allowed to parlay.
steeldco
steeldco
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January 30th, 2015 at 11:30:20 AM permalink
Quote: wudged

You didn't specify how scoring is done. Is it like betting with -110 lines, or what?

The ones at the bottom could more than double their bankroll if they are allowed to parlay.


Hi wudged. The scoring is wagering whatever amount of points you have available and there is no juice. So a loss on making a 1,000 point wager is 1,000 points. Insofar as the guys choosing to use a parlay, I found that only 2 of the remaining 7 seemed to like to use parlays. Whether they will do that on this one game, or not, I don't know. I really don't know how I would factor it in.

This is really driving me crazy. Do I wager the minimum (25 points) and hope that the ones who wager most of their points lose?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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January 30th, 2015 at 12:15:30 PM permalink
Just to state it in a different manner....
What should be my course of action in order to maximize my chances at landing in the top 3?
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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January 30th, 2015 at 1:15:29 PM permalink
I looked at the season for some additional info.

Player 2 has never taken a parlay, so I can assume that he will not for the SB.
Players 3 & 4 have played a few parlays during the season, but did not do well with them.
Player 5 has played a few parlays but not in several weeks. I can probably assume that he will not on the SB.
Interestingly players 6 and 7 put all that they had on a parlay last week and won in order to stay in the hunt. I'm not sure what to make of that.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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January 30th, 2015 at 8:56:31 PM permalink
Quote: steeldco

I looked at the season for some additional info.

Player 2 has never taken a parlay, so I can assume that he will not for the SB.
Players 3 & 4 have played a few parlays during the season, but did not do well with them.
Player 5 has played a few parlays but not in several weeks. I can probably assume that he will not on the SB.
Interestingly players 6 and 7 put all that they had on a parlay last week and won in order to stay in the hunt. I'm not sure what to make of that.



If you're happy with "at least third", I personally would do the minimum bet and stand on your season's winnings. But that's totally my opinion, not necessarily the best option. I just think that everybody else has to expose themselves to a large chunk or a parlay to catch you, and to edge out the others, with whom several are very close. While it seems unlikely they'll all whiff, I think no more than 2 of them will be successful enough to overtake your lead, and probably less than 2.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
steeldco
steeldco
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January 31st, 2015 at 7:14:29 AM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

If you're happy with "at least third", I personally would do the minimum bet and stand on your season's winnings. But that's totally my opinion, not necessarily the best option. I just think that everybody else has to expose themselves to a large chunk or a parlay to catch you, and to edge out the others, with whom several are very close. While it seems unlikely they'll all whiff, I think no more than 2 of them will be successful enough to overtake your lead, and probably less than 2.



beachbumbabs, thank you for your help. I am probably leaning towards what you suggest. The other option that I am considering is placing a wager for around 4,500 points based upon further research that I had done this morning. I was able to access all of the individual plays made by the respective individuals and based what they had taken during the season I took a stab at trying to predict what each would do as a pick. This was a very simplistic approach in that I just looked at the number of times a team would have been picked, or if they played parlays, whether they had a tendency to take overs or unders, or be balanced. Also, I see where player No.2 had posted a message to the administrator asking for a list of the payouts, which I interpret as meaning that he is weighing how much he might lose should he fall out of the top 5.

Below are my predictions:

Player #2 Takes New England
Player #3 Takes Seahawks
Player #4 Takes New England
Player #5 Takes Seahawks
Player #6 Takes New England and Over parlay
Player #7 Takes New England and Under parlay
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
steeldco
steeldco
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January 31st, 2015 at 9:03:57 AM permalink
Quote: steeldco


Below are my predictions:

Player #2 Takes New England
Player #3 Takes Seahawks
Player #4 Takes New England
Player #5 Takes Seahawks
Player #6 Takes New England and Over parlay
Player #7 Takes New England and Under parlay



Just to elaborate a bit, I think that as long as New England covers, either player #6, or player #7 will end up in 1st. place since will they more than likely wager everything knowing that they have nothing to lose.

Since players 2 & 3 are on opposite sides, one of them will fall out of the top 5. Or in the case of player #2, who will probably slide into bottom.

Similarly players 4 & 5 will have one falling out.

So I'm thinking of a 4,500 wager on New England, which if it wins will leave me in either 2nd. or 3rd.
If New England loses, then I think I also end up in either 2nd. or 3rd.

Wagering the minimum could see me fall into 4th. or 5th. with a New England cover. Or with a New England loss, I may achieve 3rd.

Obviously giving myself a headache at this point.........
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken. DO NOT blindly accept what has been written. Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.

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