Live Betting Scenario (Tennis)

Hi,

I have been betting on the 'will player x win game y of set z' live tennis for the last couple of days and made $10k + with little financial risk***.

*** Anything that involves 'investing' money always has some risk, and in my opinion the overall FINANCIAL risk is low to acceptable.

Anyway, I was wondering what the best way to go about live betting on the tennis would be in terms of, risk of getting banned (trying not to be labelled an 'advantage player' etc) ? (see parameters below)

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Parameters:

Bet Type: Live betting on player x winning game y of set z,

Reason I think I have an advantage: The prices are 'slow^^^' to update, when a player scores.

^^^: The prices are slow relative to my 'clicking speed'... for example, at the beginning of the match, Player x1 vs Player x2 are +300 and - 400 respectively,
lets say Player x1 wins the first point (the game is now 15 - 0) I seem to have up-to 2 seconds to bet on Player x1 at the 'old' price of +300, and about 95% of the time I seem to get on at the +300.

Reason I think I will be barred (eventually): To continue the example above, lets says the price has changed to -186 for Player x2, I then would bet on Player x2, and win about 11% on investment, again been paid already ($10k profit)
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EDIT(14/01 @ 1646 PST) : above where it says 'been paid already' i meant to say, 'i have transferred $10k profit from the 'live betting' section to the 'normal betting' section (still waiting on the withdrawal request, should find out if it approved or not within 48 hours)

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Strategies to consider in minimising the risk of being labelled an advantage player:

(1) Don't hedge the bets and bet smaller, (still take the advantage of being up-to 2 seconds faster than the price update)

(2) If planning to hedge, use multiple accounts (open accounts in friends names, have two + computers running etc)

(3) "Make a bad bet on purpose", less than 25% of the time bet on a 'negative' expectation possibility.

(4) feel free to post other strategies you think i would need to use

Assuming this is an online book, I wouldn't be surprised if they refuse to pay you when you try to withdraw, because you violated their terms of service by betting faster than their software could update.

But if you get your money, more power to you.

Ask Romes how this will turn out.

Quote: AcesAndEights

Assuming this is an online book, I wouldn't be surprised if they refuse to pay you when you try to withdraw, because you violated their terms of service by betting faster than their software could update.

But if you get your money, more power to you.

Is that a standard clause?

A few months ago, I was watching live lines on a US football game on a UK site and noticed that the game didn't actually close until about 15 seconds (!) after the game ended. (Admittedly, the last few seconds, the line plunged to like -2000...) The delay was consistent for people in Europe too, so it wasn't a connection issue.

Quote: Venthus

Is that a standard clause?

A few months ago, I was watching live lines on a US football game on a UK site and noticed that the game didn't actually close until about 15 seconds (!) after the game ended. (Admittedly, the last few seconds, the line plunged to like -2000...) The delay was consistent for people in Europe too, so it wasn't a connection issue.

It's standard practice for shady internet casinos to take your money when you lose, and take your money when you win too, citing you violated some non-specific rule. You don't have too look around this board much to find examples.

I'm not saying it will happen, but you have to consider the possibility, especially for an online casino without a good reputation. And ESPECIALLY in a "seems too good to be true" situation.

To AcesAndEights (and everyone else interested)

will keep you posted how many times i get paid (if any) before they bar me from that service,

there is currently nothing in their terms that says so, "...violated terms of service by betting faster than their software could update" (or similar)

Maybe i should increase the 'bad'*** bet (betting on the side without the advantage) from what i said before to about 40% of the time.

***: the 'bad' bet is only betting to about a 5% house edge, because i selected the 'accept current odds, and changes in MY FAVOUR' (doing it this way i have always received the larger odds, and the book seems to hover around the 105%, hence the ~ 5% house edge)

also, I have plenty of friends with accounts (about 6), so if my account get barred i still have their accounts for 'insurance' or whatever, (hopefully they continue to offer this service for a long time)

again, will keep you posted when/if i get paid,

surprised they haven't flagged me yet, made $3800 in the last hour, i am in front enough now not to 'hedge' anymore (hope it doesn't sound like i am gloating too much) usually these online casinos/ sportsbooks, are quick to flag, this is my third day now and no phone call or email...

Quote: ksdjdj

To AcesAndEights (and everyone else interested)

will keep you posted how many times i get paid (if any) before they bar me from that service,

there is currently nothing in their terms that says so, "...violated terms of service by betting faster than their software could update" (or similar)

Maybe i should increase the 'bad'*** bet (betting on the side without the advantage) from what i said before to about 40% of the time.

***: the 'bad' bet is only betting to about a 5% house edge, because i selected the 'accept current odds, and changes in MY FAVOUR' (doing it this way i have always received the larger odds, and the book seems to hover around the 105%, hence the ~ 5% house edge)

also, I have plenty of friends with accounts (about 6), so if my account get barred i still have their accounts for 'insurance' or whatever, (hopefully they continue to offer

again, will keep you posted when/if i get paid,

surprised they haven't flagged me yet, made $3800 in the last hour, i am in front enough now not to 'hedge' anymore (hope it doesn't sound like i am gloating too much) usually these online casinos/ sportsbooks, are quick to flag, this is my third day now and no phone call or email...

My only suggestion is that you attempt to make a withdrawal now, before you waste more time.

already put in a withdrawal request yesterday, so should find out within 48 hours, (on their site it says 24 to 72 hours to process)

Use Betfair instead. I do similar in-play betting most grand slam tournaments. Not being faster than the site updates (there is a 5 second delay between confirming your bet and having it matched) but taking advantage of the over-reaction of the herd to certain events. For example a big underdog breaking the serve of a heavy favourite will usually result in a larger change to the match odds than really should happen.

You need to ensure the "live" TV coverage that you are watching is actually live though. Much of the time it is delayed by a few seconds. Probably not a huge issue in tennis where is can be up to 30 seconds between points but other sports where there aren't any real regular stoppages can cause you problems.

thanks Aussie, I have a betfair account so I will try it that way as well, (especially if I don't get paid from the current way I am doing it)

to AcesAndEights and everyone else interested, I am starting to 'sweat a bit' on getting the money, but I still have until about 2300 today (PST), 16/01/2015, before I should really be worried about getting paid, by then it would have been 72 hours since my request, which is the maximum time a withdrawal takes (according to their site)

again, I haven't broken any of 'the sites' CURRENT rules (I have been taking screenshots of the rules with date/time clearly visible as proof) but at the same time my business is probably marked 'suspicious', since I turned 780 into 10k+ in two days (mainly on the tennis)

lastly, will keep you posted on whether i get paid or not, and also whether my account gets barred entirely, just barred from the 'live betting sections', or 'nothing bad happens' to me/my account.

As at about 210 pm PST, i received the payment of about $3700, so even if they bar me from now on i still made almost $3k from this exercise (not including the funds I still left in the sportsbook/casino)

I will NOT^^^ be posting the name of the sportsbook at this time, because l I am still down ~$45k over my life-time of betting with them (4-5 years),

^^^: The reason(s) should be obvious, but here are three (there are more i could give, but these are probably the main ones),
(1)the more people that know about it, the more likely the prices will get 'diluted', and
(2)..., the more likely someone will 'whistle-blow'/tell the sportsbook about their 'weakness(es)' that can be exploited,
(3)..., the more likely the practice will be 'picked up' by the casino's/sportsbook's own 'internal auditing systems/checks'

don't fret though, I will eventually tell you the name of the sportsbook once I have made that money back,

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To pre-empt the Morals/Ethics 'police', I consider the practice I am doing at the moment similar to someone seeing a 'flashed card' in blackjack or any other 'card-based' casino game, (I know this is not a perfect analogy, but you get the gist of what I am saying, right?).

In other words, would you consider it 'cheating' in blackjack if the dealer gave you a 'glimpse' of a card before it left the shoe, and then YOU used that information to your advantage?

There are other examples of why I don't think this is 'cheating', but it is a grey area and the question will probably draw many 'points of view', most of which will probably be "polarized opposite opinions***" (since I think most people will either strongly agree, or strongly dis-agree with me, but I could be wrong)

***: quote used from link below,

http://english.stackexchange.com/questions/151123/polarized-or-polarizing-opinions

A few will question the ethics on it. More will question why you are even posting this until you get busted and the play is no longer there. Why risk anything at this point?

Quote: ksdjdj

There are other examples of why I don't think this is 'cheating', but it is a grey area and the question will probably draw many 'points of view', most of which will probably be "polarized opposite opinions***" (since I think most people will either strongly agree, or strongly dis-agree with me, but I could be wrong)

You are not cheating, but you are taking advantage of the mafia and they might not take it so lightly. Up to you of course. Side arms are legal in the USA but where are you? and more important, where are they?

Quote: Boz

...More will question why you are even posting this until you get busted and the play is no longer there. Why risk anything at this point?

you are probably right Boz, I think I will wait until I get busted and then tell people where it is/was

Quote: NokTang

... where are you? and more important, where are they?

I am in Australia, they are based in Central America,

if they really wanted to they could just refuse to pay for any reason, and I won't have any recourse.
I am just going to try and get my money out as quickly as possible (just in case) but at the same time not trying to get flagged (so i can play there as long as possbile)

Quote: ksdjdj

As at about 210 pm PST, i received the payment of about $3700, so even if they bar me from now on i still made almost $3k from this exercise (not including the funds I still left in the sportsbook/casino)

I will NOT^^^ be posting the name of the sportsbook at this time, because l I am still down ~$45k over my life-time of betting with them (4-5 years),

^^^: The reason(s) should be obvious, but here are three (there are more i could give, but these are probably the main ones),
(1)the more people that know about it, the more likely the prices will get 'diluted', and
(2)..., the more likely someone will 'whistle-blow'/tell the sportsbook about their 'weakness(es)' that can be exploited,
(3)..., the more likely the practice will be 'picked up' by the casino's/sportsbook's own 'internal auditing systems/checks'

don't fret though, I will eventually tell you the name of the sportsbook once I have made that money back,

--------------------
To pre-empt the Morals/Ethics 'police', I consider the practice I am doing at the moment similar to someone seeing a 'flashed card' in blackjack or any other 'card-based' casino game, (I know this is not a perfect analogy, but you get the gist of what I am saying, right?).

In other words, would you consider it 'cheating' in blackjack if the dealer gave you a 'glimpse' of a card before it left the shoe, and then YOU used that information to your advantage?

There are other examples of why I don't think this is 'cheating', but it is a grey area and the question will probably draw many 'points of view', most of which will probably be "polarized opposite opinions***" (since I think most people will either strongly agree, or strongly dis-agree with me, but I could be wrong)

***: quote used from link below,

http://english.stackexchange.com/questions/151123/polarized-or-polarizing-opinions

No arguments here, and I'm surprised no one even joked about asking you what casino it is. Obviously it's in your best interest not to divulge that information, and I think everyone on this site understands that.

As to the ethics of it, there are some who will debate it, but I would say the majority of this board deems it acceptable, just like most advantage plays.

I've followed and talked with ksdjdj, If I were to follow or bet with someone regarding sports on this forum it would be him. His Ideas are intelligent and sound backed up with statistics and math. Very impressed with some of his stuff. I've verified the the truth of some of his claims.

Unfortunately he lives so far away.

Hi all,

thanks for all the comments, sorry to say that they caught on to the situation fairly quickly, so I can't seem to do it any more (at least with any of the accounts i use)

the sportsbook was 5dimes casino under sportsbook > live betting plus,

I managed to make about $60k from about a $700-$800 deposit, even though that is a lot of money i could have probably made a lot more (say up-to about 4 times as much) by getting my friends accounts organised earlier etc (made about $40k off my own personal account and $20k between my 3 friends accounts)

ps still very happy about what i have made on it

Quote: ksdjdj

Hi all,

thanks for all the comments, sorry to say that they caught on to the situation fairly quickly, so I can't seem to do it any more (at least with any of the accounts i use)

the sportsbook was 5dimes casino under sportsbook > live betting plus,

I managed to make about $60k from about a $700-$800 deposit, even though that is a lot of money i could have probably made a lot more (say up-to about 4 times as much) by getting my friends accounts organised earlier etc (made about $40k off my own personal account and $20k between my 3 friends accounts)

ps still very happy about what i have made on it

That is a pretty great score; are you still waiting on withdrawing any of it, or have you cleared the $60K back into your account?

Yes, cleared it to my skrill (moneybookers) account, thanks

ps if you haven't heard of them, it is similar to PayPal