Hedging strategy - NFL futures
Sure enough, the Panthers get in and now sit one game away from making it to the NFC Championship. That was all I was really hoping for....I knew if they made it to the NFC Championship game then I would be in a situation where a win there gets me $500,000. So the plan would have been to bet the other team moneyline....and guarantee a six figure win. As much as I want the Panthers to win tonight....if they do it means me not placing this bet back then means missing out on a huge payday....by hedging the NFC Championship game.
Now the question....if this bet were in play now....would it make sense to "double hedge" and take Seattle moneyline tonight? They are at -625 at MGM. Part of me says that would be the way to go and lock in a small win. Putting $62,500 on Seattle would guarantee a $10,000 win, minus the initial 2 bets of $1000 each for $8000 net. But now if Panthers win you would be $64,500 deep without cashing a winner yet....and still needing to hedge the NFC Championship game....where the Panthers would also be an underdog. How would you handle this if you had $1000 on Panthers to make it to Super Bowl at 500-1 and another $1000 for them to win Super Bowl at 1000-1? Time to hedge now or no??
They refused a $100 bet I tried to make on a 1000-1 in Nascar. They gave me $50 and dropped the odds to 150-1.
Quote: pelotari
Now the question....if this bet were in play now....would it make sense to "double hedge" and take Seattle moneyline tonight? They are at -625 at MGM. Part of me says that would be the way to go and lock in a small win. Putting $62,500 on Seattle would guarantee a $10,000 win, minus the initial 2 bets of $1000 each for $8000 net. But now if Panthers win you would be $64,500 deep without cashing a winner yet....and still needing to hedge the NFC Championship game....where the Panthers would also be an underdog. How would you handle this if you had $1000 on Panthers to make it to Super Bowl at 500-1 and another $1000 for them to win Super Bowl at 1000-1? Time to hedge now or no??
The 500-1 wouldn't have been a great bet at that time. In addition to the fact that they were far from a Lock to win that Division, you still have the fact that they entered the Playoffs against a seriously depleted Cardinals team. There would be a high probability of them losing to any other opponent.
That said, had you placed the bad bet at the time, you could have probably hedged all the way through the Playoffs just to cover the original money, and then waited for the Conference Championship game to hedge in a manner that chops it.
Even your 64.5K is covered in the scenario above as long as you have to only lay -770, or less, and it wouldn't be that big of a lay by then.
Still a terrible bet at the time. You don't win four straight and they're not even in the Playoffs.
Quote: Mission146The 500-1 wouldn't have been a great bet at that time. In addition to the fact that they were far from a Lock to win that Division, you still have the fact that they entered the Playoffs against a seriously depleted Cardinals team. There would be a high probability of them losing to any other opponent.
That said, had you placed the bad bet at the time, you could have probably hedged all the way through the Playoffs just to cover the original money, and then waited for the Conference Championship game to hedge in a manner that chops it.
Even your 64.5K is covered in the scenario above as long as you have to only lay -770, or less, and it wouldn't be that big of a lay by then.
Still a terrible bet at the time. You don't win four straight and they're not even in the Playoffs.
Is it a bad bet at 500-1??? Look at it like this....one of those 3 NFC South teams HAD to make the playoffs, AND were guaranteed a home playoff game. Suppose you assumed the Saints or Falcons were twice as likely to get there than the Panthers. That means chances of winning the NFC South were 40% Saints, 40% Falcons, 20% Panthers....that seems right and makes the Panthers a 1 in 5 shot to make the playoffs.
If they do, there's only 6 NFC teams in the playoffs. And 2 make it to the NFC Championship game. The teams with the bye certainly have the edge. But if you say there is a 90% chance the Panthers don't win 2 playoff games to make it to NFC Championship. That gives them a 1 in 10 shot to advance to it.
Now you have a 1 in 5 then a 1 in 10....for 1 in 50. Making it to the NFC Championship is your payday. Even if their opponent was moneyline favorite and -400....a $400,000 wager on them guarantees you a $100,000 payday. So 100x your original bet, on a 1 in 50 shot. And, after winning 2 playoff games the Panthers may not even be that much of an underdog.
I think the risk/reward ratio favored the bettor at 500-1. They ended up winning 4 straight, but the Saints also needed 16 4th quarter points to beat Tampa Bay in the last week. If not for that comeback, the Panthers could have made it in at 6-9-1 so long as they beat the Falcons in the last week.
Quote: pelotariIs it a bad bet at 500-1??? Look at it like this....one of those 3 NFC South teams HAD to make the playoffs, AND were guaranteed a home playoff game. Suppose you assumed the Saints or Falcons were twice as likely to get there than the Panthers. That means chances of winning the NFC South were 40% Saints, 40% Falcons, 20% Panthers....that seems right and makes the Panthers a 1 in 5 shot to make the playoffs.
The first thing that you have to accept is the Panthers had to win Every Game from that point on to make the Playoffs, this after a streak of six consecutive losses with a tie before that. They were 3-8-1 while NO was 5-8 and ATL was 5-8 and TB was 2-10 and still mathematically viable. They also had to BEAT each of these teams, as well as the Browns. There was no margin for error.
You're not 20% to win a Division in which you are two games out to two teams with only four games to go.
The spreads for the rest of the Regular Season put CAR's probability of winning each game at:
.21 * .598 * .624 * .37 = 0.0289939104
That means they were about 1/0.0289939104 = 1 in 34.49 to go unbeaten.
That having been established, if either NO or ATL had won all of their games EXCEPT the game against CAR, they still would have made the Playoffs instead:
NO: .598 * .598 * .63 = 0.22529052
ATL: .16 * .568 * .402 = 0.03653376
You need both of these things NOT to happen, so:
(1-0.22529052) * (1-0.03653376) = 0.74640642978
Which, in conjunction with CAR winning out:
0.74640642978 * 0.0289939104 = 0.02164124114
Which is about 1 in 46.2 and ignores TB's mathematical ability to win the Division completely.
Ignoring for a second that the weakened ARZ Cardinals were the BEST POSSIBLE MATCHUP CAR COULD ASK FOR the Odds gave them a 70% probability of winning that game, then you have SEA which opened at a .188 probability for TB:
0.02164124114*.7*.188 = 0.00284798733
Now, you're at 1 in 351.13 just to MAKE IT to the Conference Championship game, which again, relies upon a highly favorable matchup with Arizona. Even if you say they'd have a .5 chance against any other team, that drops you to 1 in 491.575 just to get there.
Okay, with that 1 in 351.13 chance, you need them to be at least .002 (1 in 500) to have an equal bet, which means:
0.00284798733 * x = .002
x = 0.7022503151
That means they'd have to have a 70.225% chance, or better, to win the Conference Championship for you to have had a good bet. If they win tonight, you will see that they will be a dog (against anyone) in the Conference Championship, and not a 70.225% favorite, making this an awful bet.
This is based on what ACTUALLY HAPPENED, in reality, they shouldn't have faced such a weakened team in the WildCard. What actually happened occurred in a way IDEAL for your bet, which still ended up being awful. They'd have been a dog to any other team.
Quote:If they do, there's only 6 NFC teams in the playoffs. And 2 make it to the NFC Championship game. The teams with the bye certainly have the edge. But if you say there is a 90% chance the Panthers don't win 2 playoff games to make it to NFC Championship. That gives them a 1 in 10 shot to advance to it.
The Odds actually put it at 13.16% to make the Conference Championship, and that's playing a weakened Arizona team. That's not even your biggest problem, the biggest problem was that you drastically overestimated the probability of them winning the Division. (20% v. Actual 2.164%)
Quote:Now you have a 1 in 5 then a 1 in 10....for 1 in 50. Making it to the NFC Championship is your payday. Even if their opponent was moneyline favorite and -400....a $400,000 wager on them guarantees you a $100,000 payday. So 100x your original bet, on a 1 in 50 shot. And, after winning 2 playoff games the Panthers may not even be that much of an underdog.
It would be close to that, but with the HIGHLY FAVORABLE WildCard matchup, you're at 1:351.13 to win $100,000 which is $284.79 in value and 350.13/351.13 to lose $1,000 which is -$997.152 for an Expected Loss of $712.36. It's far worse with that 1:491.575 chance of making it if you drop them to 50% to win the WildCard.
Quote:I think the risk/reward ratio favored the bettor at 500-1. They ended up winning 4 straight, but the Saints also needed 16 4th quarter points to beat Tampa Bay in the last week. If not for that comeback, the Panthers could have made it in at 6-9-1 so long as they beat the Falcons in the last week.
Again, what actually happened is irrelevant to expectations at the time of the bet, and what actually happened with the WildCard matchup actually resulted in circumstances that favored your bet more than they should have.
Quote: pelotariIncorrect. They did NOT have to win every game. They could have lost to the Browns, and finished 6-9-1. Atlanta still ends up 6-10. New Orleans could have lost to Tampa Bay the last week, and also finished 6-10. That means Panthers get in at 6-9-1.
What's more likely? Them losing to the Browns or New Orleans losing to Tampa Bay, or both? It's a negation, but I'm negating an unlikely scenario, anyway. I mean, yeah, I could go into figuring every possible scenario for you, but then I also have to include the probability of TB somehow making it, so it's kind of an offset, to a degree.
Again, with ATL, you're looking at what actually happened rather than what was expected to happen at the time. Also, if you want to use what actually happened, the ONLY POSSIBLE SCENARIO in which Carolina would be the Favorite in the WildCard happened, don't forget that. Your bet goes from somewhat bad to atrocious if CAR is not the WildCard favorite.
Basically, you would need Carolina to have a 1:250 shot at making it to the Conference Championship with a 50% (or better) chance of winning it. Neither of those things were ever, or under any situation, could have ever been the case.
Quote: pelotariNo I am NOT looking at what actually happened. You said I needed to "accept" that they needed to win every game. That is completely incorrect. At the time the bet was available, with 4 games left, there was a path for the Panthers to go 6-9-1 and still make the playoffs. Yet you did all your calculations based on them NEEDING to go 7-8-1. Well that wasn't the only way they could have gotten there. They did not NEED to win all 4 games. You say I am overestimating their chances to make the playoffs....yet you are understimating their chances and did a whole series of calculations requiring them to win all 4 games....when in fact that was not necessary. Their chances to make the playoffs were much higher than you are claiming.
I'm saying that it's offset by what actually happened in terms of them being the Wild Card favorite.
Here's what we'll do, we're going to look at the scenario in which NO loses to TB and CAR loses to the Browns:
(.598 * .402 * .63) * (.21 * .402 * .624) = 0.00797806782
That adds an astounding less than 1% probability of CAR making it in that way, which brings it up to:
0.02164124114+0.00797806782= 0.02961930896 or 1 in 33.76 to win the Division
(I'm still ignoring TB having a mathematical chance)
0.02961930896*.7*.188 = 0.00389790105 or 1 in 256.548 to get to the Conference Championship
0.00389790105 * x = .002
x = 0.5130966575
Okay, so you would STILL need them to be a 51.31% FAVORITE to win the Conference Championship to have had a good bet. They will be a dog to either Dallas or Green Bay if they win tonight, so, that's hopeless. ALSO, those Odds INCLUDE the ridiculously improbable favorable matchup against a severely weakened Cardinals team in the WildCard round.
If you make the WildCard 50/50, then 0.00278421504 is the probability of reaching the Conference Championships, which they would then have to be a 71.83% favorite to win for you to have a good bet.
Quote: pelotariIt didn't have to play out exactly like that. There were options. Panthers could have afforded a loss against either Cleveland or Tampa Bay. Likewise, New Orleans could have lost against either Tampa Bay or Chicago. There were multiple ways where Carolina going 6-9-1 still wins them the division and gets them to the playoffs. Their chances to make the playoffs were better than 3% when there were 4 games left.
Is there something confusing about they shouldn't have been the favorite in the WildCard game, and would have been the dog, to any other team that could have conceivably been there...or an Arizona team not playing with their third-string QB?
The probability of losing to TB was less than losing to Cleveland, the probability of NO losing to CHI was greater:
.21 * .598 * .376 * .37 = 0.0174706896
.598 * .402 * .63 = 0.15144948
0.15144948*0.0174706896 = 0.00264592685
Okay, so you have a .2646% chance of that happening.
Shoot, let's just give Carolina a 5% chance of winning the Division, and that's rounding WAY up:
0.05*.7*.188 = 0.00658 or 1 in 151.976 to make the conference championship.
0.00658 * x = .0002
x = 0.3039513678
So, they'd have to be a 30.395% to win that game, MoneyLine +229 (or less), spread +6.5 (or less), which absolutely would not happen. They opened at +11 against SEA and went all the way to +13 or +13.5.
They were seven point dogs when they went to Green Bay to play the Packers, and they were 3-2-1 going into that game and looked much better against a GB team that didn't look AS unbeatable at 4-2.
They didn't play Dallas this year, but it doesn't matter, they still would have been seven point dogs, or more.
This all includes, perhaps, the most important fact of all that you seem to conveniently ignore: THERE WAS ONLY ONE SCENARIO THAT MAKES THEM A FAVORITE IN THE WILDCARD ROUND, WITH A LOSING RECORD, AND IT HAPPENED!
Quote: pelotariI estimated them at 90% chance to NOT make the NFC Championship game even IF they made the playoffs and you keep babbling on about how Arizona was the only team they would be favored against...blah blah blah. That's already baked in...and giving them only a 10% chance when there are just 6 teams and 2 make it is being WAY conservative. Your 5% to make the playoffs is way low. And they were only 1.5 games back with 4 to go, not 2 games back.
Should I just declare you the world's greatest prognosticator and we'll call an end to the Debate?
I apologize for all previous indiscretions, and hereby swear, uphold and affirm that your shot-from-the-hip 1 in 5 chance of them winning the Division was spot on accurate. They had a 20% chance of winning that Division, even though the other two teams were ahead in the division by 1.5 games (which has no bearing on my Math, actually) and if either of those two teams would have beaten them, it would have been over immediately.
Either that, or you could counter my Math with some Math of your own.
They had just slightly over a 20% chance of winning against NO and ATL completely barring all other considerations...just to win those two games.
Quote: pelotariYou also ignored the fact that I stated 2 bets of $1000 each, with getting to the Super Bowl at 500-1 and winning the Super Bowl at 1000-1. That means if we stop splitting hairs and say the hedge you do if they get to the NFC Championship game is either slightly positive or negative....the fact that you have them at 1000-1 to win the Super Bowl makes a huge difference.
I'm very close to just ignoring this discussion and the reason why is obvious: If CAR at 500:1 to get to the Super Bowl is an EVEN bet, not even a bad one, they'd still have to be given a 50% chance of winning the Super Bowl for 1000-1 on that bet to be good.
Had CAR made the Super Bowl, they would not be there at Even Money, they would be a pretty significant underdog, meaning the probability of them winning is less than 50% automatically making SB at 1000-1 a worse bet than CONF at 500-1, even if the latter were a good bet...which it was not.
Quote:You hedge the NFC Championship game and win or lose you are slightly ahead or down. But not really....because if they win that game you are slightly ahead or down WITH the chance to now hedge the Super Bowl which will guarantee you a big win. So your first hedge protects you but leaves huge upside on the next game if the 1000-1 bet is still in play.
Honestly, I had this exact theory with 20-1 Odds on CAR to win the CONFERENCE AFTER they had already made the Playoffs and was favored against ARZ, and Wizard came in and proved my theory completely wrong:
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/290/
Devastatingly, horribly, embarrassingly wrong. Could not have been a worse bet.
The mathematical principles Wizard used to display the horrendousness of my bet (which wasn't actually as bad as he thought, but was still pretty bad) are the same principles I used to demonstrate that your bet was not a good one, except, I didn't have as much to speculate on since the vast majority of the outcomes pertaining to your bet had already happened.
The 1000-1 bet is worse than the 500-1 bet, therefore, if the 500-1 bet is bad, then the 1000-1 bet is bad.
That being said, you could argue that a $100,000 win is only 50x your initial bets of $2000 total. And that is not enough payback given the odds. This is true. However, I would argue that those future moneyline odds are unknown. Had the Panthers won in Seattle they may not be HUGE underdogs in the NFC Championship. They would have just beaten the defending champions on their field. And if they won the NFC Championship they may not be huge underdogs in the Super Bowl. Maybe they are for real....people start to think. So your ultimate potential profit is determined by the moneylines, and they move in your direction as it plays out. How much....who knows? But we might not be talking about just a $100,000 guaranteed win. If you could be even going in to the Super Bowl and the AFC team was -400 then you could put $400,000 on the AFC team and say I will take just a $100,000 win if the Panthers lose Super Bowl and a $600,000 win if they win Super Bowl. Not a bad spot to be in.
Quote: pelotariThe bets operate in conjunction. That's the point. Hedging the NFC Championship game might allow you to book a small win no matter what.
If the Super Bowl at 1000:1 is a worse bet than the Conference at 500:1, by default, why would you not just bet double on the Conference? They can't win the Super Bowl if they don't win the Conference.
Quote:We don't know what the odds would be at that time. Even if all you could do was book a breakeven....bet $900,000 on the AFC team and guarantee a $100,000 profit no matter what happens in the Super Bowl.
Did you click that link, find the pertinent question, and read the answer? That's rhetorical, by the way. If the Wizard's analysis isn't good enough for you, there's nothing else I can do, here.
Quote:Had the Panthers won in Seattle they may not be HUGE underdogs in the NFC Championship.
Yes, they would.
1.) Bookmakers are not stupid people. They don't care what happened in the game immediately before, they determine the Odds based on the strength of one team vs. another team. Also, if you look at it in terms of overall performance the entire season, CAR compares less favorably to GB than they did when they played them in the regular season.
2.) Everyone lays the favorite, it's the popular thing to do. CAR would be likely to be getting more points (higher moneyline, lower implied percentage of winning) than would even be warranted.
Quote:And if they won the NFC Championship they may not be huge underdogs in the Super Bowl. Maybe they are for real....people start to think.
Maybe CAR v. DEN, NE or IND is a literal toss-up, people start to think. Hell, maybe CAR should be the thirty-six point favorite in this game.
The point is, if they are underdogs AT ALL in the SB, then SB at 1000-1 is worse than Conference at 500-1, and you would do well to put all the money (if you had to choose) on Conference at 500-1.
There's a greater overall point you are missing. The 500:1 Odds were based largely on the unlikelihood of CAR winning the Division. If you started your hedging in the WildCard Round, you'd probably be able to Lock in a win of some kind, anyway.
Carolina at 500:1, in and of itself, at that time, was still a bad bet, though.
The fuzzy math part is using point spreads to calculate probability of a straight up winner in future weeks. I can't challenge that because 1) no details were provided on how that is calculated and 2) I do not have my own calculation system to present as an alternative.
Let's just say that I doubt those probabilities and the initial bets would be based on the premise that I have watched and rewatched every single play of all the Panthers games all season. And would be doing all this under the belief that the Panthers were actually better than their 3-8-1 record indicated at the time, and in fact better than both the Falcons and the Saints. So there is that "handicapping" aspect which cannot be quantified. But fair to say that I simply had not written the Panthers off when it seemed everyone else had. My personal probabilities for them to win in their last 4 games would have been much different than those calculated using their prior record.
The bets essentially give you options. You have the opportunity to hedge or not hedge, and to what degree. That means you have the opportunity to look at each week's moneyline as you advance, and decide your hedge amount. It is almost certain that the worst odds you would have faced would have been this week where Seattle was -700 then eventually -625.
The big hedge decision would be the NFC Championship game. And part of your decision would be not only that week's moneyline....but what you expect the moneyline to be IF they advance to the Super Bowl. It's like implied odds in Texas Hold Em. If I catch the card I need it isn't just about the existing pot, but how much it grows to, etc. Very similar with the future moneyline. And a guessing game. But safe to say the long odds give you the potential to strategize and adjust strategy along the way as more becomes known....like moneyline odds.
And with all due respect to the Wizard....he is absolutely wrong that the Panthers do not deserve to be in the playoffs, which was in that link. The Wizard is great at explaining the rules of all the casino games and how to play according to them. Well guess what....the NFL has rules too. And all the teams MUST follow them, just like we all MUST follow the rules on blackjack or craps. The first rule of getting to the playoffs is win your division. The Panthers did that. They absolutely deserved to be in the playoffs, and the proof is they won their first playoff game.
Quote: pelotariI clicked the link, your question was about going in at 18:1 and hedging along the way. My scenario was 500-1 and 1000-1 and maybe or maybe not hedging today's game. Big difference between 18 and 500. I realize the 500-1 and 1000-1 meant going in when things looked very bleak and that is also a key difference.
There's a big difference between needing to win three in a row compared to seven in a row, or 6/7 with that loss being highly conditional and only able to come in two of the four games.
Quote:The fuzzy math part is using point spreads to calculate probability of a straight up winner in future weeks. I can't challenge that because 1) no details were provided on how that is calculated and 2) I do not have my own calculation system to present as an alternative.
Wizard has a page on it, so I used that.
Quote:Let's just say that I doubt those probabilities and the initial bets would be based on the premise that I have watched and rewatched every single play of all the Panthers games all season. And would be doing all this under the belief that the Panthers were actually better than their 3-8-1 record indicated at the time, and in fact better than both the Falcons and the Saints. So there is that "handicapping" aspect which cannot be quantified.
I could see where you would think 500-1 was good on a team with any chance. What about them going from 3-2 to 3-8-1 instilled in you the belief that they were better than those teams? Especially considering they lost to both of those teams during that stretch...both times at home...decisively lost to the Saints...and still had to play them both away?
I usually don't look at a team who loses six in a row, and loses each of those by an average of 14.5 points, and think, "Yeah, but they look pretty good."
Quote:And with all due respect to the Wizard....he is absolutely wrong that the Panthers do not deserve to be in the playoffs, which was in that link. The Wizard is great at explaining the rules of all the casino games and how to play according to them. Well guess what....the NFL has rules too. And all the teams MUST follow them, just like we all MUST follow the rules on blackjack or craps. The first rule of getting to the playoffs is win your division. The Panthers did that. They absolutely deserved to be in the playoffs, and the proof is they won their first playoff game.
They won against a severely weakened team playing with their third-string QB, but I agree they deserved to be there, because that's what the Rules say. Whether or not they deserved to be there has no bearing on the Math, though.
Quote: pelotariAnd with all due respect to the Wizard....he is absolutely wrong that the Panthers do not deserve to be in the playoffs, which was in that link. The Wizard is great at explaining the rules of all the casino games and how to play according to them. Well guess what....the NFL has rules too. And all the teams MUST follow them, just like we all MUST follow the rules on blackjack or craps. The first rule of getting to the playoffs is win your division. The Panthers did that. They absolutely deserved to be in the playoffs, and the proof is they won their first playoff game.
Of course they are entitled to make the playoffs for they won their division. If anybody respects rules, it is me. What I wrote was a joke. They had a losing record and I felt only were the playoffs by virtue of the rules, not by being good.
Quote: Mission146First of all, I apologize for the delay. I'm usually not on Sundays.
There's a big difference between needing to win three in a row compared to seven in a row, or 6/7 with that loss being highly conditional and only able to come in two of the four games.
Wizard has a page on it, so I used that.
I could see where you would think 500-1 was good on a team with any chance. What about them going from 3-2 to 3-8-1 instilled in you the belief that they were better than those teams? Especially considering they lost to both of those teams during that stretch...both times at home...decisively lost to the Saints...and still had to play them both away?
I usually don't look at a team who loses six in a row, and loses each of those by an average of 14.5 points, and think, "Yeah, but they look pretty good."
They won against a severely weakened team playing with their third-string QB, but I agree they deserved to be there, because that's what the Rules say. Whether or not they deserved to be there has no bearing on the Math, though.
What instilled the belief was a few things. First is the Panthers have finished really strong in each of the last 2 seasons before this. Going 3-1 and 4-0 in the last 4 games in the 2 prior years. With a coach that has been there just 3 years. So maybe a strength of Ron Rivera is keeping his team fighting at the end no matter what. I believe that is the case. By contrast, look at the Dolphins. They never seem to finish strong. Last season they needed to win one of two to make playoffs. They fold. Some teams finish well and some fold. I think coaching has a lot to do with it. And the Panthers defense was pretty clearly a solid group, even with the team's poor record. And lastly, I thought by just watching them play....that the Saints and Falcons looked worse than the Panthers as the season went on AND looked to be in decline. Even with the Atlanta 2 point win in their first matchup. Atlanta and New Orleans just did not impress. So with Tampa Bay and those 2 as upcoming opponents....the Panthers ending schedule looked attractive. The fact that they faced the Saints and Falcons at the end was a big factor in that the Panthers they knew they could gain significant ground by winning those games. The division was weak, but someone had to advance and get a home playoff game. So all those combined made me think 500-1 was attractive. Maybe a pipe dream, but if they sneak in then anything can happen if the defense played up to their ability.
Quote: pelotariI am really kicking myself because after their loss to Minnesota dropped them to 3-8-1, my local team the Carolina Panthers went to odds of 500-1 to make it to the Super Bowl and 1000-1 to win the Super Bowl. I thought about placing a $1000 bet on each but did not. The odds just seemed way high as the Saints and Falcons still weren't running away with the NFC South and the schedule seemed to look good for the Panthers squeaking in to the playoffs with a losing record. But I only wanted to do the wagers in Vegas, not online....as I have no experience with online accounts other than a friend who uses a site that I don't even know is trustworthy. Certainly would not be comfortable with a $500,000 payout due from them. Wasn't able to make it to Vegas or anywhere with legal sports betting so no wager is in play.
Sure enough, the Panthers get in and now sit one game away from making it to the NFC Championship. That was all I was really hoping for....I knew if they made it to the NFC Championship game then I would be in a situation where a win there gets me $500,000. So the plan would have been to bet the other team moneyline....and guarantee a six figure win. As much as I want the Panthers to win tonight....if they do it means me not placing this bet back then means missing out on a huge payday....by hedging the NFC Championship game.
Reading this got me thinking. If you had made the bet when they were 3-8 once they made the playoffs that ticket would have shot up in value. Would there had been anyway to sell the ticket? Anyone heard of something like that happening?
Quote: z2newtonReading this got me thinking. If you had made the bet when they were 3-8 once they made the playoffs that ticket would have shot up in value. Would there had been anyway to sell the ticket? Anyone heard of something like that happening?
Absolutely, you could probably have found someone to buy it. Just have to decide whether you'd do well to sell it, hedge the whole thing out, hope they win in the WC (or more) and then hedge or hope they make it all the way. I'd certainly be putting the word out that I had the ticket, though.
It was a massive luckbox as the Rams turned out to be best team in the NFL and were favored every step of the way in playoffs. I hedged small vs Vikings and when they were -1500 vs TB I took Bucs ML and also took Jaguars and Titans to win Super Bowl for futures on title game weekend. This left me able to sit back and get a guaranteed $1,500 win no matter what happened.
As we know now, Rams won the Super Bowl. I blew $1,500 because I hedged several big underdogs against them. I would do it again though as at the time that was about 3 weeks of pay to me.
On the other hand, if Rams were underdogs, I would have just let them ride. The fact they were favorite in playoffs and I could get TB +1000 and +500 +/- on the AFC Championship teams made it worth it.
I am in opposite boat now as I have Colts +2200 on WH app. I'm just going to hope it wins this time. Panthers were my NFC miracle team, a ticket now worthless.
Quote: dbldwn23We are not talking much money here, but I have Seatle for $200 at 7/2 to win the NFC. I can hedge Green Bay at about +250 or so. Would you just roll with Seatle winning 700 or losing it all or hedge (200 on Green Bay) and if Seatle wins 500 and if Green bays wins 300. Thank you.
Personally I would let it ride, especially as they are favored by 7. But it really depends on how much money $700/$300/$500 are to you.
