Sports bet tip

So, I happened to be at a casino, 'south' of the strip, that has a pretty active sportsbook, at about 4:45 today. My partner was playing through some free play and since I recently heard the "no more blackjack" speech at this property, I am taking a little hiatus before I try to play again, under the radar. So, I was killing time in the sportsbook, watching the seattle/greenbay pregame stuff, when I overheard this sportsbook guy behind me talking to his client.

He was one of those guys like a Steve Stephens that was on the that show on the money channel in the last year. His pitch was exactly like the Steve Stevens guy and as a matter of fact, he sounded so much like him, I had to turn around and take a discrete look. It wasn't the guy from the show. But he was pushing his client, who apparently they had just met for the first time, to wager $5000 on a game. The client only wanted to wager $500, since it was his first time using this 'service' and the guy was very annoyed about that.

I am not really impressed by these guys. If they were really so good at handicapping football, they would bet there own money instead of selling their picks. But I did find it interesting that this guy was pushing not, the pro game between Seattle and Green bay, but the college game between Arizona and Texas-San Antonio. And his pick: The football powerhouse of Texas-San Antonia plus 7.5 points. I mean on a night, when the NFL season kicked off, with the super bowl champions playing Green bay, this guys big pick was Texas-San Antonio. That struck me as odd.

I couldn't help myself. I put $110 on Texas-SA +7.5. So after the kickoff, first play from scrimmage, Arizona, throws a pass for 85 yards and a TD. 7-0 Arizona, 15 seconds in. I am kicking myself for being stupid, but glad I only 'gambled' $110. Lol Well it was time to go, so I didn't get to watch any more. Just checked the score when I got home. Arizona won by 4, so I am $100 richer. Now I am wondering, why I didn't bet more. Lol (not really)

I think its illusory to go around saying "I'm an Expert, buy my picks" when no full formal disclosure of a track record is made.

No matter what the situation, profit or social, I think it wrong to ever encourage much less nag someone to bet more than he is obviously willing to bet. His reasoning may be wrong but it is his wallet, not yours.

These sports touts are basically freerolling. If they get a guy to bet $5000 on a few games and they win, they'll be buying picks for a while until their luck runs out. And if the first fews picks happen to lose, well, there's a sucker born every minute.

Risking 110 to win 100 on the basis of this overheard conversation was definitely a negative play, but if it provided you with a little entertainment, probably worth the cost.

Touting is the oldest scam in the world. If you doubt it, Google the author of my signature line for an entertaining hundred year-old short story, or two, or twenty.

I like your stories Kewlj. It's funny that, even if you gamble every day, you can't help but have these ultra-short term reactions. My team scores first--it's a done deal, break out the champagne. The other team scores first, I made a terrible bet and am so bad I'd better start looking for a job as I'll surely be broke by the end of the week.

Touts gonna tout. Obviously, this guy was a hustler and probably a scumbag. The more his client bet, the more seduced he'd be if they got lucky. But it's also possible the guy had an edge.

I listen to a lot of touts when they give away free info and I've learned a lot from them--more about their thought process than their picks. I don't think using one can ever be +ev unless the fees are very, very small compared to your bets. But I think that some whales might lose at a slower rate or perhaps hover around break even thanks to their touts. Assuming those touts are in the tiny minority who actually know what they are doing. Which is something the whales are probably bad at discerning.

I have watched a few of those Stephens shows on CNBC. Real or drama, who knows, but likely some sliver of truth in there. Anyway, he spoke of charging clients in the area of 40% on a win. What a scam and a guarantee loser for the client. Laying -110 is bad enough. But now instead of betting $55K to win $50K, he is betting $55K to effectively win $30K. The tout would have to win 65% of the time just for the client to break even. Some in this business give opposite picks to 1/2 their clients and suck fees off the winners. There are a handful of smart guys in this business, but most are hustlers.

Darth

Quote: darthvader

Some in this business give opposite picks to 1/2 their clients and suck fees off the winners.

Darth

I think this would be illegal. You could just give out different picks free to everyone at the start of the season. a smaller group would see you made correct picks and come back for more, now you start charging.

In this touts defense, lots of "sharper" sports bettors were on UTSA last night.

Quote: AxelWolf

I think this would be illegal. You could just give out different picks free to everyone at the start of the season. a smaller group would see you made correct picks and come back for more, now you start charging.

It was an old trick for the stock market. All you needed was stocks that move, up or down does not matter. After about the third or fourth pick you sent a letter those who had success four times in a row and recommend some real dog. Touting is old stuff. I worked in a place where about once a week someone would come in with a tip on a horse. I usually bet it to show.

I'm always willing to disclose my secret squirrel stock/sports picks. All you have to do is give me 10% of your wins, and none of your losses. I consult a crystal ball.