Official 2014 NFL Handicapping Contest
December 14th, 2014 at 4:59:58 PM
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#2 seems the reasonable solution.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
December 14th, 2014 at 7:44:53 PM
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I was thinking #2 as well. I will give a chance for any other input until around noon tomorrow. At that time I will post the complete set of picks and updated standings going into the Monday night game.
December 15th, 2014 at 12:29:44 AM
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#2 seems fairest also. Thought so when you asked, and was glad to see everyone else said the same thing. Thanks.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
December 15th, 2014 at 6:18:20 AM
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Well, overall, I made a little money but basically treaded water. wudged, OTOH, gained about another 10K. I hope to hell you played some parlays with a Sunday like that, guy. Nicely done.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
December 15th, 2014 at 7:41:45 AM
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Quote: beachbumbabsWell, overall, I made a little money but basically treaded water. wudged, OTOH, gained about another 10K. I hope to hell you played some parlays with a Sunday like that, guy. Nicely done.
Don't I wish.
I'm just wondering what criticism I'll have to face, since last week's 20k / 80% at risk with a 12k win was too "small." I wonder if my bets were "large" enough this week? :) Not enough bets? Too little of total bankroll at risk? Picked too many favorites? The Titans should have won straight up?
December 15th, 2014 at 7:58:30 AM
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Quote: wudgedDon't I wish.
I'm just wondering what criticism I'll have to face, since last week's 20k / 80% at risk with a 12k win was too "small." I wonder if my bets were "large" enough this week? :) Not enough bets? Too little of total bankroll at risk? Picked too many favorites? The Titans should have won straight up?
Surely you're not listening to any criticism with the way you're running compared to the rest of us? Laugh all the way to the bank, brah. And yeah, I called you Shirley. lol....
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
December 15th, 2014 at 12:36:17 PM
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Here are the results through for the games this week (except for the remaining pick tonight). I'll post standings after the game, and even though catching wudged will be extremely difficult, second place is up for grabs.
| Player | Selection | Amount | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayecarumba | ARI +4.5 | 550 | +500 |
| STL/ARI Over 39.5 | 330 | -330 | |
| ARI ML | 500 | +1000 | |
| PIT -2 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| OAK +10 | 550 | -550 | |
| OAK ML | 444 | -444 | |
| IND -6.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| GB -4.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| SF +10 | 1100 | 0 | |
| DAL ML | 1333 | +1999.50 | |
| BeachBumBabs | ARI +4.5 | 2200 | +2000 |
| ARI ML | 1000 | +2000 | |
| PIT -2 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| PIT ML | 2600 | +2000 | |
| GB ML | 2300 | -2300 | |
| GB -4.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| CLE -1 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| CLE ML | 2219.50 | -2219.50 | |
| DEN -4 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| steeldco | ARI +4.5 | 2200 | +2000 |
| ARI ML | 1000 | +2000 | |
| GB -4.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| TEN +3 | 2400 | -2400 | |
| NE -7.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| JAC +13.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| SF +10 | 2200 | 0 | |
| NO -3 | 2200 | ||
| ATLiens | ARI +4.5 | 1650 | +1500 |
| ARI ML | 500 | +1000 | |
| KC ML | 4500 | +750 | |
| JAC +13.5 | 550 | +500 | |
| ATL/PIT Under 55 | 825 | -825 | |
| IND -6.5 | 1100 | +1000 | |
| NE ML | 4000 | +1000 | |
| TB ML | 500 | -500 | |
| strictlyAP | STL/ARI Over 39.5 | 2000 | -2000 |
| ARI ML | 1000 | +2000 | |
| PHI -3.5 | 1112.33 | -1112.33 | |
| FunkyDoctor | CAR -3 | 2200 | -2200 |
| CAR ML | 3400 | +2000 | |
| NE -7.5 | 1760 | +1600 | |
| EdCollins | CLE -1 | 2200 | -2200 |
| CLE ML | 2400 | -2400 | |
| ATL +2 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| ATL ML | 1818.18 | -1818.18 | |
| DAL ML | 1333.33 | +2000 | |
| wudged | STL -4.5 | 550 | -550 |
| ARI/STL Over 39.5 | 330 | -330 | |
| PIT -2 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| PIT ML | 2600 | +2000 | |
| NE -7.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| NYG -6.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| NYJ -3 | 2000 | +2000 | |
| DAL ML | 500 | +750 |
December 15th, 2014 at 5:53:13 PM
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Quote: beachbumbabs#2 seems fairest also. Thought so when you asked, and was glad to see everyone else said the same thing. Thanks.
Hey wow - I'm just seeing these, sorry. I was careful not to exceed my balance, but I did include my Thursday wins in my total. Am I understanding correctly that I can only risk my week beginning balance including the Thursday game? Sorry, and thanks for determining a fair resolution!
December 15th, 2014 at 6:47:50 PM
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Quote: ATLiensHey wow - I'm just seeing these, sorry. I was careful not to exceed my balance, but I did include my Thursday wins in my total. Am I understanding correctly that I can only risk my week beginning balance including the Thursday game? Sorry, and thanks for determining a fair resolution!
Not a problem, I think an agreeable solution was reached. It was an honest mistake, and not the first person to make it. If I administer the contest next year, that's a rule I will change and allow Thursday results for the weekend and Monday games. I'll also spell out the contingency plan in case someone overbets the bankroll.
In any case, no worries, good luck to all the last two weeks.
December 15th, 2014 at 8:14:26 PM
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I'm calling this game early, don't see any chance that Chicago comes back and beats the spread.
So, week 15 results are final, as always, please let me know if you see any errors.
Now the year to date standings. While it will be VERY difficult to catch wudged and his padded bank, the second place spot is still attainable for everybody else.
So, week 15 results are final, as always, please let me know if you see any errors.
| Player | Selection | Amount | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayecarumba | ARI +4.5 | 550 | +500 |
| STL/ARI Over 39.5 | 330 | -330 | |
| ARI ML | 500 | +1000 | |
| PIT -2 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| OAK +10 | 550 | -550 | |
| OAK ML | 444 | -444 | |
| IND -6.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| GB -4.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| SF +10 | 1100 | 0 | |
| DAL ML | 1333 | +1999.50 | |
| BeachBumBabs | ARI +4.5 | 2200 | +2000 |
| ARI ML | 1000 | +2000 | |
| PIT -2 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| PIT ML | 2600 | +2000 | |
| GB ML | 2300 | -2300 | |
| GB -4.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| CLE -1 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| CLE ML | 2219.50 | -2219.50 | |
| DEN -4 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| steeldco | ARI +4.5 | 2200 | +2000 |
| ARI ML | 1000 | +2000 | |
| GB -4.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| TEN +3 | 2400 | -2400 | |
| NE -7.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| JAC +13.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| SF +10 | 2200 | 0 | |
| NO -3 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| ATLiens | ARI +4.5 | 1650 | +1500 |
| ARI ML | 500 | +1000 | |
| KC ML | 4500 | +750 | |
| JAC +13.5 | 550 | +500 | |
| ATL/PIT Under 55 | 825 | -825 | |
| IND -6.5 | 1100 | +1000 | |
| NE ML | 4000 | +1000 | |
| TB ML | 500 | -500 | |
| strictlyAP | STL/ARI Over 39.5 | 2000 | -2000 |
| ARI ML | 1000 | +2000 | |
| PHI -3.5 | 1112.33 | -1112.33 | |
| FunkyDoctor | CAR -3 | 2200 | -2200 |
| CAR ML | 3400 | +2000 | |
| NE -7.5 | 1760 | +1600 | |
| EdCollins | CLE -1 | 2200 | -2200 |
| CLE ML | 2400 | -2400 | |
| ATL +2 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| ATL ML | 1818.18 | -1818.18 | |
| DAL ML | 1333.33 | +2000 | |
| wudged | STL -4.5 | 550 | -550 |
| ARI/STL Over 39.5 | 330 | -330 | |
| PIT -2 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| PIT ML | 2600 | +2000 | |
| NE -7.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| NYG -6.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| NYJ -3 | 2000 | +2000 | |
| DAL ML | 500 | +750 |
Now the year to date standings. While it will be VERY difficult to catch wudged and his padded bank, the second place spot is still attainable for everybody else.
| Player | # of Picks | Bankroll |
|---|---|---|
| wudged | 154 | $47,410.00 |
| steeldco | 78 | $22,241.26 |
| ATLiens | 84 | $21,255.00 |
| BeachBumBabs | 104 | $20,200.00 |
| Ayecarumba | 127 | $15,850.65 |
| FunkyDoctor | 43 | $8,848.18 |
| icecapper | 67 | $7,753.03 |
| EdCollins | 66 | $4,388.47 |
| strictlyAP | 48 | $3,000.00 |
| GWAE | 42 | $39.50 |
| vendman1 | 17 | $35.28 |
| Johnzimbo | 18 | $1.82 |
| 10DollarBri | 42 | $0.00 |
December 15th, 2014 at 8:20:29 PM
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A couple other items of note:
1) Early in week 16 we will pass the $1M mark in imaginary wagering
2) There are Saturday games this week. I'll post those lines on Thursday night or early Friday morning, and selections for those games will be available up until an hour before kickoff of the first game on Saturday. The rest of the scheduled deadlines remain the same.
1) Early in week 16 we will pass the $1M mark in imaginary wagering
2) There are Saturday games this week. I'll post those lines on Thursday night or early Friday morning, and selections for those games will be available up until an hour before kickoff of the first game on Saturday. The rest of the scheduled deadlines remain the same.
December 16th, 2014 at 2:50:52 PM
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Quote: MidwestAPNot a problem, I think an agreeable solution was reached. It was an honest mistake, and not the first person to make it. If I administer the contest next year, that's a rule I will change and allow Thursday results for the weekend and Monday games. I'll also spell out the contingency plan in case someone overbets the bankroll.
In any case, no worries, good luck to all the last two weeks.
Thanks for all the work MidwestAP.
I don't know if making the Thursday night winnings available for the following Sunday/Monday is a good idea. To be consistent, would Sunday winnings be available on Monday?
As a suggstion for next year, perhaps capping the max wager per play, instead of the max win would be more "real world". I understand the need to keep the contest from turning into an underdog lottery at the end of the season, but a max wager cap (that could even increase incrementally thorugh the season) would reward those who recognize good values in the longer odds.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
December 16th, 2014 at 3:04:19 PM
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Quote: AyecarumbaThanks for all the work MidwestAP.
I don't know if making the Thursday night winnings available for the following Sunday/Monday is a good idea. To be consistent, would Sunday winnings be available on Monday?
As a suggstion for next year, perhaps capping the max wager per play, instead of the max win would be more "real world". I understand the need to keep the contest from turning into an underdog lottery at the end of the season, but a max wager cap (that could even increase incrementally thorugh the season) would reward those who recognize good values in the longer odds.
You are welcome, glad you are able to participate.
I'll host a discussion about rule changes for next year after we finish up this contest. One of the topics will certainly be betting limits. Originally, I was going to maintain a betting limit rather than a win limit, but after discussion on the original concept thread, I decided to go this way to prevent as you said, an 'underdog lottery' at the end of the year. I certainly want to reward those who did well the entire season. There are a lot of ways to go, uncapped, capped wins, capped bets, increasing caps, etc.
As far as the rule to keep Thursday winnings from carrying over to the weekend, this was to maintain transparency to those playing of the current bank for each player, making it easy to figure out what each player has available to bet on a week to week basis. Since I'm currently only consistently posting ytd standings after the end of the week this makes sense. But, as I figured out, I have to post lines on Friday for the weekend (and Monday) games already, so updating the standings on Friday, with a current bank, wouldn't be too difficult. In the current format, Monday selections are submitted with the Sunday games, so I don't think there would be a need to carryover Sunday banks to Monday.
In any case, these are some items to consider for next year, I'm sure there are others.
December 17th, 2014 at 11:33:59 AM
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For those who want to play what I can only describe as the worst prime time game of the year, the lines for the week 16 Thursday game are below. It takes a lot to keep me uninterested in an NFL game, but this one sure qualifies. It's not too often that the Jaguars are favored in any game.
| Team | Spread | Over/Under | Money Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | +3 (EV) | 40.5 | +150 |
| JAC | -3 (-120) | 40.5 | -170 |
December 18th, 2014 at 4:28:09 PM
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Week 16 Thursday selections
| Player | Selection | Amount | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| strictlyAP | TEN/JAC Over 40.5 | 1500 | |
| JAC ML | 1500 | ||
| steeldco | TEN +3 | 2000 | |
| TEN ML | 1333.33 | ||
| ATLiens | JAC -3 | 2400 | |
| JAC ML | 3400 | ||
| wudged | JAC -3 | 2400 |
December 19th, 2014 at 6:32:36 AM
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Week 16 Saturday lines are below. Remember to PM me any picks for either of these games at least an hour before kickoff of the first game which I believe starts at 4:30 EST.
| Team | Spread | Over/Under | Money Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | -7.5 | 50.5 | -350 |
| WAS | +7.5 | 50.5 | +290 |
| SD | +1 | 41 | +100 |
| SF | -1 | 41 | -120 |
December 19th, 2014 at 4:26:15 PM
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The full set of lines and prices for this weekend are below. The first two games are the Saturday games and need to be submitted an hour before kickoff of the first Saturday game. The rest need to be submitted by 10:00 EST on Sunday.
| Team | Spread | Over/Under | Money Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | -7.5 | 50.5 | -350 |
| WAS | +7.5 | 50.5 | +290 |
| SD | +1 | 41 | +100 |
| SF | -1 | 41 | -120 |
| MIN | +6.5 | 42 | +250 |
| MIA | -6.5 | 42 | -300 |
| GB | -11.5 | 49 | -750 |
| TB | +11.5 | 49 | +525 |
| DET | -8.5 | 44.5 | -400 |
| CHI | +8.5 | 44.5 | +320 |
| ATL | +6.5 | 56 | +220 |
| NO | -6.5 | 56 | -260 |
| NE | -10.5 | 46.5 | -650 |
| NYJ | +10.5 | 46.5 | +475 |
| KC | +3 | 46.5 | +135 |
| PIT | -3 | 46.5 | -155 |
| CLE | +3.5 | 41 | +155 |
| CAR | -3.5 | 41 | -175 |
| BAL | -5 | 41.5 | -240 |
| HOU | +5 | 41.5 | +200 |
| NYG | +6.5 | 43.5 | +240 |
| STL | -6.5 | 43.5 | -280 |
| BUF | -6.5 | 39.5 | -280 |
| OAK | +6.5 | 39.5 | +240 |
| IND | +3.5 | 55.5 | +160 |
| DAL | -3.5 | 55.5 | -180 |
| SEA | -8 | 36.5 | -360 |
| ARI | +8 | 36.5 | +300 |
| DEN | -3 (-120) | 47.5 | -170 |
| CIN | +3 (EV) | 47.5 | +150 |
December 20th, 2014 at 1:40:46 PM
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Week 16 selections (so far):
| Player | Selection | Amount | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| strictlyAP | TEN/JAC Over 40.5 | 1500 | -1500 |
| JAC ML | 1500 | +882.35 | |
| steeldco | TEN +3 | 2000 | -2000 |
| TEN ML | 1333.33 | -1333.33 | |
| WAS +7.5 | 2200 | ||
| SD +1 | 2200 | ||
| ATLiens | JAC -3 | 2400 | +2000 |
| JAC ML | 3400 | +2000 | |
| WAS +7.5 | 550 | ||
| SD ML | 750 | ||
| wudged | JAC -3 | 2400 | +2000 |
| SF -1 | 550 | ||
| Ayecarumba | SD/SF Over 41 | 2200 | |
| BeachBumBabs | PHI -7.5 | 2200 | |
| SF -1 | 2200 | ||
| SF ML | 2400 |
December 20th, 2014 at 2:40:09 PM
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my SF bet was for $550
December 20th, 2014 at 9:27:54 PM
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Oh FFS, what a disaster of an evening of football re: my garbage picks. Goodbye, cruel world....lol. How does SF let SD back in the game? Gah.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
December 21st, 2014 at 8:46:37 AM
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Quote: wudgedmy SF bet was for $550
You are right, this has been corrected
December 21st, 2014 at 8:50:50 AM
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Quote: beachbumbabsOh FFS, what a disaster of an evening of football re: my garbage picks. Goodbye, cruel world....lol. How does SF let SD back in the game? Gah.
Don't give up hope yet, there are a slew of games today which can help you rebound.
December 21st, 2014 at 9:39:28 AM
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Week 16 selections:
| Player | Selection | Amount | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| strictlyAP | TEN/JAC Over 40.5 | 1500 | -1500 |
| JAC ML | 1500 | +882.35 | |
| steeldco | TEN +3 | 2000 | -2000 |
| TEN ML | 1333.33 | -1333.33 | |
| WAS +7.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| SD +1 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| ATL +6.5 | 2200 | ||
| PIT -3 | 2200 | ||
| TB +11.5 | 2200 | ||
| NYG +6.5 | 2200 | ||
| DAL -3.5 | 2200 | ||
| ARI +8 | 2200 | ||
| ATLiens | JAC -3 | 2400 | +2000 |
| JAC ML | 3400 | +2000 | |
| WAS +7.5 | 550 | +500 | |
| SD ML | 750 | +750 |
|
| MIN ML | 800 | ||
| ATL +6.5 | 1100 | ||
| STL -6.5 | 1100 | ||
| DAL ML | 3600 | ||
| CIN ML | 1300 | ||
| wudged | JAC -3 | 2400 | +2000 |
| SF -1 | 550 | -550 | |
| GB -11.5 | 550 | ||
| DET -8.5 | 550 | ||
| NYG +6.5 | 550 | ||
| IND +3.5 | 550 | ||
| Ayecarumba | SD/SF Over 41 | 2200 | +2000 |
| GB/TB Over 49 | 2200 | ||
| CHI ML | 625 | ||
| NE/NYJ Over 46.5 | 2200 | ||
| NYG ML | 833 | ||
| IND +3.5 | 2200 | ||
| IND ML | 1250 | ||
| ARI ML | 666 | ||
| BeachBumBabs | PHI -7.5 | 2200 | -2200 |
| SF -1 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| SF ML | 2400 | -2400 | |
| MIN +6.5 | 2200 | ||
| BAL -5 | 2200 | ||
| GB -11.5 | 2200 | ||
| DET -8.5 | 2200 | ||
| CAR -3.5 | 2200 | ||
| NE -10.5 | 2200 |
December 23rd, 2014 at 5:21:17 AM
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Week 16 results:
| Player | Selection | Amount | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| strictlyAP | TEN/JAC Over 40.5 | 1500 | -1500 |
| JAC ML | 1500 | +882.35 | |
| steeldco | TEN +3 | 2000 | -2000 |
| TEN ML | 1333.33 | -1333.33 | |
| WAS +7.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| SD +1 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| ATL +6.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| PIT -3 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| TB +11.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| NYG +6.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| DAL -3.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| ARI +8 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| ATLiens | JAC -3 | 2400 | +2000 |
| JAC ML | 3400 | +2000 | |
| WAS +7.5 | 550 | +500 | |
| SD ML | 750 | +750 |
|
| MIN ML | 800 | -800 | |
| ATL +6.5 | 1100 | +1000 | |
| STL -6.5 | 1100 | -1100 | |
| DAL ML | 3600 | +2000 | |
| CIN ML | 1300 | +1950 | |
| wudged | JAC -3 | 2400 | +2000 |
| SF -1 | 550 | -550 | |
| GB -11.5 | 550 | +500 | |
| DET -8.5 | 550 | -550 | |
| NYG +6.5 | 550 | +500 | |
| IND +3.5 | 550 | -550 | |
| Ayecarumba | SD/SF Over 41 | 2200 | +2000 |
| GB/TB Over 49 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| CHI ML | 625 | -625 | |
| NE/NYJ Over 46.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| NYG ML | 833 | +1999.20 | |
| IND +3.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| IND ML | 1250 | -1250 | |
| ARI ML | 666 | -666 | |
| BeachBumBabs | PHI -7.5 | 2200 | -2200 |
| SF -1 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| SF ML | 2400 | -2400 | |
| MIN +6.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| BAL -5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| GB -11.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| DET -8.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| CAR -3.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| NE -10.5 | 2200 | -2200 |
December 23rd, 2014 at 5:31:33 AM
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Year to date standings are below. Although not impossible for someone to catch wudged, it's going to be difficult. But second place is definitely being contested. While ATLiens and steeldco are trying to outmaneuver each other, it may allow someone else to sneak in with a spectacular week.
Good luck to all in the last week!
Good luck to all in the last week!
| Player | # of Picks | Bankroll |
|---|---|---|
| wudged | 160 | $48,760.00 |
| ATLiens | 93 | $29,555.00 |
| steeldco | 88 | $26,507.93 |
| BeachBumBabs | 113 | $12,800.00 |
| Ayecarumba | 135 | $10,678.85 |
| FunkyDoctor | 43 | $8,848.18 |
| icecapper | 67 | $7,753.03 |
| EdCollins | 66 | $4,388.47 |
| strictlyAP | 50 | $2,382.35 |
| GWAE | 42 | $39.50 |
| vendman1 | 17 | $35.28 |
| Johnzimbo | 18 | $1.82 |
| 10DollarBri | 42 | $0.00 |
December 26th, 2014 at 4:27:06 PM
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OK, the final lines and prices for the 2014 contest are now posted. Good luck to all, I will try to update the results and standings throughout the day on Sunday.
| Team | Spread | Over/Under | Money Line |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAC | +9.5 | 40.5 | +400 |
| HOU | -9.5 | 40.5 | -500 |
| IND | -7 | 46.5 | -320 |
| TEN | +7 | 46.5 | +260 |
| CLE | +13 | 39 | +900 |
| BAL | -13 | 39 | -1600 |
| BUF | +5 | 44 | +200 |
| NE | -5 | 44 | -240 |
| NYJ | +6 | 42 | +220 |
| MIA | -6 | 42 | -260 |
| CAR | +3 (EV) | 47.5 | +150 |
| ATL | -3 (-120) | 47.5 | -170 |
| CHI | +6 | 44 | +220 |
| MIN | -6 | 44 | -260 |
| SD | +1 | 40.5 | +100 |
| KC | -1 | 40.5 | -120 |
| PHI | +2.5 | 52.5 | +120 |
| NYG | -2.5 | 52.5 | -140 |
| DAL | -5.5 | 49 | -240 |
| WAS | +5.5 | 49 | +200 |
| NO | -4 | 46.5 | -200 |
| TB | +4 | 46.5 | +170 |
| STL | +12.5 | 41 | +600 |
| SEA | -12.5 | 41 | -900 |
| ARI | +6.5 | 36.5 | +245 |
| SF | -6.5 | 36.5 | -290 |
| DET | +7.5 | 47 | +280 |
| GB | -7.5 | 47 | -340 |
| OAK | +14 | 48 | +1000 |
| DEN | -14 | 48 | -1800 |
| CIN | +3.5 | 48 | +165 |
| PIT | -3.5 | 48 | -185 |
December 28th, 2014 at 7:11:26 AM
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Final week selections:
Looking at the possibilities, steeldco is the only one who can catch wudged. But that will require that steeldco would need to win all 12 selections ats (or 11 wins and one tie ats and a wudged loss), which would be approx 1 in 2^12 chance or over 1 in 4000 chance.
The realistic competition is for 2nd place between steeldco and ATLiens. They took different approaches, steeldco betting the entire bankroll, while ATLiens took a more reserved approach. A key game for them is the Bear/Viking game, it's the only game where they are on opposite sides.
Ayecarumba and BeachBubBabs took a heavy underdog ML approach. With an upset fest the like of which we've never witnessed, BBB can top $40k and Aye can top $30k.
| Player | Selection | Amount | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayecarumba | CLE ML | 222 | |
| JAC ML | 500 | ||
| TEN ML | 769 | ||
| CAR ML | 1333.33 | ||
| CHI ML | 909 | ||
| STL ML | 333.33 | ||
| ARI ML | 816.32 | ||
| DET ML | 714.28 | ||
| OAK ML | 200 | ||
| CIN ML | 1212.12 | ||
| wudged | DAL -5.5 | 1364 | |
| BeachBumBabs | JAC +9.5 | 2150 | |
| JAC ML | 500 | ||
| CLE ML | 222 | ||
| BUF ML | 1000 | ||
| CHI ML | 909 | ||
| NYJ ML | 909 | ||
| WAS ML | 1000 | ||
| TB ML | 1176 | ||
| PHI ML | 1659 | ||
| STL ML | 333 | ||
| OAK ML | 200 | ||
| DET ML | 714 | ||
| ARI ML | 816 | ||
| CIN ML | 1212 | ||
| ATLiens | HOU -9.5 | 550 | |
| HOU ML | 1500 | ||
| IND ML | 1600 | ||
| NYJ +6 | 770 | ||
| ATL ML | 1700 | ||
| MIN -6 | 1100 | ||
| MIN ML | 2600 | ||
| SD ML | 500 | ||
| NYG -2.5 | 770 | ||
| NO ML | 500 | ||
| SEA -12.5 | 770 | ||
| ARI +6.5 | 660 | ||
| DET +7.5 | 770 | ||
| DEN -14 | 660 | ||
| CIN +3.5 | 770 | ||
| icecapper | JAC +9.5 | 600 | |
| NE -5 | 600 | ||
| NYG -2.5 | 600 | ||
| STL +12.5 | 600 | ||
| OAK +14 | 600 | ||
| steeldco | ATL -3 | 2400 | |
| CLE +13 | 2200 | ||
| SD +1 | 2200 | ||
| CHI +6 | 2200 | ||
| NO -4 | 2200 | ||
| NYG -2.5 | 2200 | ||
| DAL -5.5 | 2200 | ||
| HOU -9.5 | 2107.93 | ||
| OAK +14 | 2200 | ||
| STL +12.5 | 2200 | ||
| DET +7.5 | 2200 | ||
| CIN +3.5 | 2200 |
Looking at the possibilities, steeldco is the only one who can catch wudged. But that will require that steeldco would need to win all 12 selections ats (or 11 wins and one tie ats and a wudged loss), which would be approx 1 in 2^12 chance or over 1 in 4000 chance.
The realistic competition is for 2nd place between steeldco and ATLiens. They took different approaches, steeldco betting the entire bankroll, while ATLiens took a more reserved approach. A key game for them is the Bear/Viking game, it's the only game where they are on opposite sides.
Ayecarumba and BeachBubBabs took a heavy underdog ML approach. With an upset fest the like of which we've never witnessed, BBB can top $40k and Aye can top $30k.
December 28th, 2014 at 7:50:02 AM
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Quote: MidwestAP
Looking at the possibilities, steeldco is the only one who can catch wudged. But that will require that steeldco would need to win all 12 selections ats (or 11 wins and one tie ats and a wudged loss), which would be approx 1 in 2^12 chance or over 1 in 4000 chance.
Since my pick overlaps steeldco's, I think the only chance he has is to win all 12. If he wins the other 11 games, he will be at 48424.23. Dallas not covering puts me at 47,396 and him at 46,224.23. Dallas covering puts me at 50,000 and him at 50,424.23
December 28th, 2014 at 8:16:46 AM
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Quote: beachbumbabsOh FFS, what a disaster of an evening of football re: my garbage picks. Goodbye, cruel world....lol. How does SF let SD back in the game? Gah.
May I respectfully make a request? Unless it's absolutely necessary in a quote, for example, can we not use initials, blanks or other symbols to circumvent Forum Rule 6? You may as well use the offending word itself for all the difference it makes.
I'm not offended by the word that Rule 6 explicitly prohibits but this forum reaches far and wide. Others certainly would be offended and may look unfavorably upon us. Perhaps the mods could lead by example. Thank you all for your consideration.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
December 28th, 2014 at 8:18:22 AM
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Quote: wudgedSince my pick overlaps steeldco's, I think the only chance he has is to win all 12. If he wins the other 11 games, he will be at 48424.23. Dallas not covering puts me at 47,396 and him at 46,224.23. Dallas covering puts me at 50,000 and him at 50,424.23
I think you are correct, I missed the Dallas overlap. I like your chances either way, lol
December 28th, 2014 at 2:42:10 PM
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Quote: 1BBMay I respectfully make a request? Unless it's absolutely necessary in a quote, for example, can we not use initials, blanks or other symbols to circumvent Forum Rule 6? You may as well use the offending word itself for all the difference it makes.
I'm not offended by the word that Rule 6 explicitly prohibits but this forum reaches far and wide. Others certainly would be offended and may look unfavorably upon us. Perhaps the mods could lead by example. Thank you all for your consideration.
Let me make sure I have this right: You're not offended and nobody actually typed a curse word. But, we should all be ever vigilant about what ambiguous initials we may or may not be using in place of what may or may not be an offensive phrase, which may or may not be a violation of 'Rule 6' which may or may not have others 'far and wide' looking unfavorably upon us?
FFS 1BB, can you lighten up a bit?
December 28th, 2014 at 3:06:37 PM
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Deleted out of respect for the thread.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
December 28th, 2014 at 6:09:39 PM
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Quote: 1BBYes, you have it exactly right. I made a suggestion for the betterment of the forum. How could anyone possibly find fault with that? The initials leave nothing to the imagination but if that's the only way you can make your point then do what you have to. Too bad more of us don't look out for the forum.
I see you're fairly new with just a few posts so I'd like to belatedly welcome you and wish you good luck with the football. Don't forget to declare any winnings on your tax return.
I reject the premise that your suggestion betters the forum. I instead argue that veiled threats from would-be thought policemen are in fact anathema to the spirit and mission of the forum, rendering your comment quite ironic. Additionally, I find fault with you interjecting a silly 'request' about potential abbreviated obscenities on page 33 of a season long thread for a pool you don't participate in.
I am articulate enough to make my point in myriad ways, but choose quite specifically to ask: FFS 1BB, can you lighten up a bit?
December 28th, 2014 at 8:47:26 PM
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Week 17 results:
And final standings:
Congrats (and $211.25) to wudged for a great season, exactly quintupling the original bank. I hope you were placing real money on some of your picks as well.
Second place ($113.75) goes to ATLiens who maintained a steady pace throughout the season.
If both of the winners can PM me the email address you used to sign up with LeagueSafe so I can confirm the payout to the correct player, I will put the authorization into the LeagueSafe site by the end of the day on Tuesday as long as I don't hear any objection to the final results.
In the next couple of days I will produce some season ending statistics from the league as well as entertain discussion about rule changes for next year if we hold a similar contest.
Thanks to everyone who participated!
| Player | Selection | Amount | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ayecarumba | CLE ML | 222 | -222 |
| JAC ML | 500 | -500 | |
| TEN ML | 769 | -769 | |
| CAR ML | 1333.33 | +2000 | |
| CHI ML | 909 | -909 | |
| STL ML | 333.33 | -333.33 | |
| ARI ML | 816.32 | -816.32 | |
| DET ML | 714.28 | -714.28 | |
| OAK ML | 200 | -200 | |
| CIN ML | 1212.12 | -1212.12 | |
| wudged | DAL -5.5 | 1364 | +1240 |
| BeachBumBabs | JAC +9.5 | 2150 | +1954.55 |
| JAC ML | 500 | -500 | |
| CLE ML | 222 | -222 | |
| BUF ML | 1000 | +2000 | |
| CHI ML | 909 | -909 | |
| NYJ ML | 909 | +1999.80 | |
| WAS ML | 1000 | -1000 | |
| TB ML | 1176 | -1176 | |
| PHI ML | 1659 | +1990.80 | |
| STL ML | 333 | -333 | |
| OAK ML | 200 | -200 | |
| DET ML | 714 | -714 | |
| ARI ML | 816 | -816 | |
| CIN ML | 1212 | -1212 | |
| ATLiens | HOU -9.5 | 550 | -550 |
| HOU ML | 1500 | +300 | |
| IND ML | 1600 | +500 | |
| NYJ +6 | 770 | +700 | |
| ATL ML | 1700 | -1700 | |
| MIN -6 | 1100 | -1100 | |
| MIN ML | 2600 | +1000 | |
| SD ML | 500 | -500 | |
| NYG -2.5 | 770 | -770 | |
| NO ML | 500 | +250 | |
| SEA -12.5 | 770 | +700 | |
| ARI +6.5 | 660 | +600 | |
| DET +7.5 | 770 | -770 | |
| DEN -14 | 660 | +600 | |
| CIN +3.5 | 770 | -770 | |
| icecapper | JAC +9.5 | 600 | +545.55 |
| NE -5 | 600 | -600 | |
| NYG -2.5 | 600 | -600 | |
| STL +12.5 | 600 | -600 | |
| OAK +14 | 600 | -600 | |
| steeldco | ATL -3 | 2400 | -2400 |
| CLE +13 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| SD +1 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| CHI +6 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| NO -4 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| NYG -2.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| DAL -5.5 | 2200 | +2000 | |
| HOU -9.5 | 2107.93 | -2107.93 | |
| OAK +14 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| STL +12.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| DET +7.5 | 2200 | -2200 | |
| CIN +3.5 | 2200 | -2200 |
And final standings:
| Player | # of Picks | Bankroll |
|---|---|---|
| wudged | 161 | $50,000.00 |
| ATLiens | 108 | $28,045.00 |
| BeachBumBabs | 127 | $13,663.14 |
| steeldco | 100 | $12,600.00 |
| FunkyDoctor | 43 | $8,848.18 |
| Ayecarumba | 145 | $7,002.58 |
| icecapper | 72 | $5,898.48 |
| EdCollins | 66 | $4,388.47 |
| strictlyAP | 50 | $2,382.35 |
| GWAE | 42 | $39.50 |
| vendman1 | 17 | $35.28 |
| Johnzimbo | 18 | $1.82 |
| 10DollarBri | 42 | $0.00 |
Congrats (and $211.25) to wudged for a great season, exactly quintupling the original bank. I hope you were placing real money on some of your picks as well.
Second place ($113.75) goes to ATLiens who maintained a steady pace throughout the season.
If both of the winners can PM me the email address you used to sign up with LeagueSafe so I can confirm the payout to the correct player, I will put the authorization into the LeagueSafe site by the end of the day on Tuesday as long as I don't hear any objection to the final results.
In the next couple of days I will produce some season ending statistics from the league as well as entertain discussion about rule changes for next year if we hold a similar contest.
Thanks to everyone who participated!
December 28th, 2014 at 8:54:30 PM
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Midwest, thanks for hosting. It is appreciated.
December 28th, 2014 at 8:55:40 PM
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I have a small objection to finishing third, as it doesn't pay...(joke).
Seriously, congrats to both wudged and ATLiens! I thought midseason, Aye and steeldco were going to be the two, so it's pretty cool that the game was so volatile, including my brief time in the money. Well played, guys, and I learned a lot. Thanks again for doing this, Midwest!
Seriously, congrats to both wudged and ATLiens! I thought midseason, Aye and steeldco were going to be the two, so it's pretty cool that the game was so volatile, including my brief time in the money. Well played, guys, and I learned a lot. Thanks again for doing this, Midwest!
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
December 28th, 2014 at 9:14:51 PM
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Congrats to the winners. Even though I long ago busted out I enjoyed the contest and look forward to next years version.
December 29th, 2014 at 6:18:48 AM
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Thanks for putting this on. It was fun and Fade-o will enjoy his steak!
December 29th, 2014 at 9:25:44 AM
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Congratulations to the winners, and thanks again to MidwestAP for running it. It was fun, and made each week interesting.Quote: wudgedThanks for putting this on. It was fun and Fade-o will enjoy his steak!
I would like to see a line graph of everyone's weekly holdings. I think if I recognized my peak and just stood pat, I would have finished in the money. I'm pretty sure the Raiders and Cowboys are to blame...hehe.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
December 29th, 2014 at 9:27:25 AM
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Quote: AyecarumbaCongratulations to the winners, and thanks again to MidwestAP for running it. It was fun, and made each week interesting.
I would like to see a line graph of everyone's weekly holdings. I think if I recognized my peak and just stood pat, I would have finished in the money. I'm pretty sure the Raiders and Cowboys are to blame...hehe.
Yea, both of us were around 35k about 5 weeks ago. And don't forget the Colts!
December 29th, 2014 at 10:09:52 AM
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Deleted. I tried, guys, but someone just had to quote it. :-(
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
December 29th, 2014 at 10:25:41 AM
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Quote: wudgedThanks for putting this on. It was fun and Fade-o will enjoy his steak!
Congrats wudged......and to Fade-O.
Well done!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 29th, 2014 at 10:26:45 AM
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Midwest, thanks for doing this. It was great fun!
DO NOT blindly accept what has been spoken.
DO NOT blindly accept what has been written.
Think. Assess. Lead. DO NOT blindly follow.
December 29th, 2014 at 10:29:49 AM
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Quote: 1BBWe've both had our say but you want to keep going. I will no longer respond in this thread, not because I'm not fascinated by your interest in my request but because this is not the place. I feel that it would be extremely selfish of me and very disrespectful to MidwestAP and everyone else on this thread were I to continue.
On that note I've deleted my response to you. It won't go away because you quoted it but it's one less post to clog this fine thread. I had no idea that my little request would draw the responses that it did from you. Feel free to start a new thread where you can discuss your concerns.
You can continue your characterizations and insults there. Insult away if that's what makes you happy. I have a standing request with the mods to NOT suspend anyone who insults me and they've been quite good honoring that. You can also discuss things that are important to you like using initials to mask swear words. I remember doing that in grade school. It was fun. We could also discuss the overuse of the word anathema if you like.
Perhaps you will consider deleting your posts from this thread as well and give it the respect due. Don'y worry, you can always copy it to the new thread.
This post will be deleted sometime in the next 24 hours.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
December 30th, 2014 at 6:31:49 AM
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Midwest - Thank you for the time and effort you put into running the pool this year! I really enjoyed the format and volatility, and feel fortunate to finish as well as I did. Until next year: Football and intellectual freedom!
December 30th, 2014 at 6:44:25 AM
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Quote: 1BBDeleted. I tried, guys, but someone just had to quote it. :-(
Particularly interesting considering this post:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/glbt-corner/4258-the-never-ending-tasks/2/#post416832
Quote: beachbumbabstera,
Why are you spamming the board with pastes of a member's (recently) deleted posts from 3 years ago? Please stop. Thanks.
December 30th, 2014 at 7:22:06 PM
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I have allocated the winnings to wudged and ATLiens. I sent them both PM's with instructions. It's my first try using LeagueSafe as a way to collect and hold the entry fee's and distribute the payments. Once I get some feedback from the two guys getting paid, I'll update the group with my thoughts about the site.
December 30th, 2014 at 7:35:12 PM
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I also want to acknowledge all the kind words about administering the contest this year. I'm glad those who participated enjoyed it and I may do it again next year if there is interest.
I want to open up the discussion about any rule changes for next year. Anything that you suggest will be taken under consideration, but not guaranteed. Some areas of discussion include:
Betting limits - Capped win, capped bet, no cap, increasing cap as the season progresses??
Weekly limits - Keep it as is (the previous week bankroll determines the total amount you can put at risk the following week) OR allow any Thursday winnings to be used for Sunday and Monday games.
If we go again next year, I want to add some default options in these situations
1) If anyone submits the team and the amount without any reference to ATS or ML, default to ATS. For example, Baltimore $550 means BAL (insert point spread) for $550.
2) If anyone overbets the bankroll for a week, the wagers will be reduced for the week in the reverse order they were submitted
These were really the only two issues I ran into this year that weren't explicitly covered by the rules.
I want to open up the discussion about any rule changes for next year. Anything that you suggest will be taken under consideration, but not guaranteed. Some areas of discussion include:
Betting limits - Capped win, capped bet, no cap, increasing cap as the season progresses??
Weekly limits - Keep it as is (the previous week bankroll determines the total amount you can put at risk the following week) OR allow any Thursday winnings to be used for Sunday and Monday games.
If we go again next year, I want to add some default options in these situations
1) If anyone submits the team and the amount without any reference to ATS or ML, default to ATS. For example, Baltimore $550 means BAL (insert point spread) for $550.
2) If anyone overbets the bankroll for a week, the wagers will be reduced for the week in the reverse order they were submitted
These were really the only two issues I ran into this year that weren't explicitly covered by the rules.
December 30th, 2014 at 7:36:22 PM
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I requested a paper check for a $2 fee. Feels stingy having to pay a fee for payment and withdrawal. I could have requested it as an Amazon gift card for no fee. I guess it doesn't expire and I would use it eventually, but I'd rather just have the cash.
Next year I would vote to trust somebody (MidwestAP, Mission) with holding the money instead.
Next year I would vote to trust somebody (MidwestAP, Mission) with holding the money instead.
December 30th, 2014 at 7:44:37 PM
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I also want to say thanks for hosting this, it was fun until I went all in on the Cowboys. Also, I received an email from Leaguesafe announcing the payouts and it included the winners actual names. Not sure if that could be an issue for anyone, but I would have assumed there would have been some form of anonymity.
