My Eagles under bet
With 2 games against Dallas, and games against Seattle and Green Bay, they have some 'losable' games. They also play Carolina next week and they are very up and down. The Eagles also end the season with consecutive away games against Washington and Giants and while those games look like wins on paper, I said before those division games can get interesting. We saw that last week with Washington at Dallas. But Dallas has their own QB injury issues, and Seattle seems to be a shell of it's former superbowl self, so I would say the Eagles are in pretty good shape for getting 10 wins, which makes my wager a loser. They would need to go 4-4 the rest of the way. If they were 5-3 now, as I projected (I had them losing at Indianapolis), I would have a real shot. But it will be interesting to see what happens.
Even with Sanchize running the show, it's hard to find a way the Eagles do not win 4 out of the next 8 games to get to 10 wins. Plus, Foles could be back for weeks 16-17. I hope he is a fast healer.
With 4 of there next 5 games against Green bay @ Green bay, Dallas @ Dallas and Seattle and Dallas at home, there are still some very losable games. I need them to lose all 4 of those games, plus one other against either Tennessee, NY Giants or Washington. It currently seems a pretty long shot. If they win any one of those 4 games that I am counting as losses, at least I can throw in the towel and start routing for them and stop torturing myself. Although the way my year is going, about the time I start routing for them will be when they start losing. Lol.
Sorry my $10 offer is off the table.Quote: kewljThis wager is just a nightmare for me. Not only because I am almost assured of losing the wager, but as the first line of my initial post states, I am an Eagles fan and it is just torture routing against them as I have been doing. When I made the bet I just did not anticipate how difficult it would be for me if they were doing well.
With 4 of there next 5 games against Green bay @ Green bay, Dallas @ Dallas and Seattle and Dallas at home, there are still some very losable games. I need them to lose all 4 of those games, plus one other against either Tennessee, NY Giants or Washington. It currently seems a pretty long shot. If they win any one of those 4 games that I am counting as losses, at least I can throw in the towel and start routing for them and stop torturing myself. Although the way my year is going, about the time I start routing for them will be when they start losing. Lol.
Quote: kewljThis wager is just a nightmare for me. Not only because I am almost assured of losing the wager, but as the first line of my initial post states, I am an Eagles fan and it is just torture routing against them as I have been doing. When I made the bet I just did not anticipate how difficult it would be for me if they were doing well.
With 4 of there next 5 games against Green bay @ Green bay, Dallas @ Dallas and Seattle and Dallas at home, there are still some very losable games. I need them to lose all 4 of those games, plus one other against either Tennessee, NY Giants or Washington. It currently seems a pretty long shot. If they win any one of those 4 games that I am counting as losses, at least I can throw in the towel and start routing for them and stop torturing myself. Although the way my year is going, about the time I start routing for them will be when they start losing. Lol.
I feel for you kewlj. I made a decision a long time ago never to bet against my teams, even if I thought it was a good bet. I found myself way too conflicted. I mean I can pick against them in a small stakes pick em pool, but never put any significant money against them, just too tough and makes the game un-enjoyable.
I think this is the same reason we bet the Pass line in craps when we know the Don't offers better odds. It's not as much fun rooting for someone to lose.Quote: MidwestAPI feel for you kewlj. I made a decision a long time ago never to bet against my teams, even if I thought it was a good bet. I found myself way too conflicted. I mean I can pick against them in a small stakes pick em pool, but never put any significant money against them, just too tough and makes the game un-enjoyable.
Apparently you haven't noticed EvenBob.Quote: AyecarumbaIt's not as much fun rooting for someone to lose.
Quote: BozMuch better chance than I thought that Eagles will run the NFC East table and I will owe Sodawater $100. Winning at Dallas like this on the road doesn't give me much hope they can come into Philly and win. its never over 'til its over, but he made a good bet taking the 5/1 odds I offered.
I still think you had the edge laying 1:5. Dallas was a lot better than I thought they would be when I took the bet.
I might be +EV now with just three games left and Dallas at home, but 6-0 is always tough.
Dallas: While I once thought (and hoped for the sake of my bet) the Eagles would lose twice to Dallas, I now would be surprised if they didn't win twice. It isn't that they dominated Dallas as much as I really think that Tony Romo is hurt and not healthy. I am not a Romo fan, so I am not making excuses for him, but his back injury just appears to be effecting him much more than he is letting on. He didn't play that well against the giants last Sunday and looked even worse against the Eagles. Coming off 2 straight years of back surgery and with yet another severe back injury, it might be time for this guy to think about retiring before he seriously hurts himself.
However, as for the bet you guys have with Eagles sweeping division, I just get the feeling they will lose one of there final two games AT NYGiants or AT Washington. Might even be they don't play starters in one or both of those games.
Quote: kewljWhile my bet is technically still alive (Eagles would need to lose remaining 4), I am comfortable that I have lost and actually was routing for them yesterday, with friends here in Philadelphia.
Dallas: While I once thought (and hoped for the sake of my bet) the Eagles would lose twice to Dallas, I now would be surprised if they didn't win twice. It isn't that they dominated Dallas as much as I really think that Tony Romo is hurt and not healthy. I am not a Romo fan, so I am not making excuses for him, but his back injury just appears to be effecting him much more than he is letting on. He didn't play that well against the giants last Sunday and looked even worse against the Eagles. Coming off 2 straight years of back surgery and with yet another severe back injury, it might be time for this guy to think about retiring before he seriously hurts himself.
However, as for the bet you guys have with Eagles sweeping division, I just get the feeling they will lose one of there final two games AT NYGiants or AT Washington. Might even be they don't play starters in one or both of those games.
While they could have the division wrapped up, they still have lost to GB and Arizona, the 2 teams above them for a bye so they may need to win every game. Time will tell.
Boz, PM me the e-mail you want me to Paypal to.
Quote: kewljIn looking at the schedule I see 7 wins. And that is if both their two star players, Foles and McCoy remain healthy. Let Foles miss a few games with Mark Sanchez at QB, and I am counting money early. :)
Hey, you could still technically push. But I wouldn't bet on it (at even money).
You finally start enjoying your team's success and then they lose the next two games. After last night they now need help from other teams to make the playoffs. The Cowboys may oblige them with a loss in the last two games. 8.5 point road favorite this week @ WAS may bring your wager to conclusion. What a roller coaster ride this wager has been for a fan of the Eagles.
At this point, which do you prefer?
Eagles lose out and you push the wager.
Eagles win out (bet lost) and make the playoffs.
As for the playoffs, it looks like a long shot to me, even if they win the last 2 games, because they lose tie breakers to most of the teams they are likely to be tied with for that last playoff spot, They lost heads up games against Arizona, Green Bay, and Seattle, and I believe lose a tie breaker to Detroit as well. They do hold a tie breaker against Dallas, having split the heads up, they would go to division record, which the eagles would win, but They are a game behind Dallas and need to pick up a game to tie. On paper that looks like a possibility with Dallas playing Indy this week, but I have to wonder if Indy plays starters the whole way. They clinched their division last week and have virtually no chance of catching Denver of New England for one of the first two seeds and a first round bye. So without a first round bye and week to rest, and nothing to gain, I have to think they rest some starters over the next two weeks. Maybe not the whole game, but maybe like preseason games where starters play a quarter. Any thoughts?
It was speculated several weeks ago that someone is likely to win the NFC south with a losing record, which has only happened once before in a 16 game season, and that is likely to mean that someone with an 11-5 record in the NFC will miss the playoffs, and that 11-5 team to miss the playoffs, just might be the eagles.
As for my wager, while I know I look foolish, most of my reasoning was spot on. I said, Foles and McCoy would not come close to the years they had last year and they did not. I thought (not hoped but thought) there was a strong possibility that Foles would be injured and that occurred. And yet I still EASILY lost my wager. I did not foresee just how valuable Darren Sproles would be. I also did not figure the Eagles would get all the return TD's that they have. Kickoff returns, punt returns, even blocked punt return, plus a number of defensive returns. Not making excuses. I lost...or will lose. Life goes on.
Eagles have a great chance of making playoffs now. You need to follow the news more.
You are not alone, the Saints didn't either :-(Quote: kewlj
I did not foresee just how valuable Darren Sproles would be
Quote: sodawaterIndy already announced it is absolutely playing its starters and DeMarco Murray is probably out.
Eagles have a great chance of making playoffs now. You need to follow the news more.
I did read about Murray last night after I posted. That is good news for the Eagles playoff chances (of course doesn't effect my wager).
Sorry, Sodawater, I have been putting in many hours at my day job (blackjack tables) in the final weeks of the year (my playing year ends the day before Xmas) trying to finish the year strong or create what the stock market refers to a 'santa claus rally' (without much luck so far...lol), so I usually don't catch up to days events until the end of the day right now.
Quote: kewljWhile the bet is technically still alive, needing 2 loses to push, I gave up on it a while ago (last week while visiting east coast, I attended the Eagles-Seattle game and routed for the Eagles). As bad as the Eagles have played last two week, those games were against quality opponents. It's hard to see them losing to both Washington and the Giants. But who knows.
Well... one loss down. One to go.
It's likely when they play the Giants, next week, their playoff chances will already be shot and the game will be for pride only.
Kelly might be wishing he would have at least talked to Florida.
Quote: MidwestAPUnfortunately for kewlj, this could be the worst case scenario, the Eagles win next week, and as a result, the bet will lose, and his team misses the playoffs. For his sake, I'm rooting hard for the Giants next week!
Me too.
Quote: MidwestAPUnfortunately for kewlj, this could be the worst case scenario, the Eagles win next week, and as a result, the bet will lose, and his team misses the playoffs. For his sake, I'm rooting hard for the Giants next week!
The best I can do with this wager is a push @ 9-7. But that and saving 5 grand would look pretty good after they were 9-3. I had literally given up on this bet. Now I have hope again. But the way my year is going will still likely lose. lol.
One good thing I have going is the Eagles will likely be eliminated from playoff possibilities long before the game sunday night. They could be eliminated today if Dallas win, I believe and even if Dallas loses Today, Dallas would have to lose a gain next week to Washington, in a game that occurs before the eagles Play for the Eagles game to have any meaning. So most likely the Eagles Giants game will be a game of two teams going home for the winter. One has to wonder how the Eagles would respond to that, being just a couple weeks ago, they looked to not only be heading to the playoffs, but had a real good shot at home field advantage throughout.
Then im a sinner, I dont mind giving up a small amount of ev, if it adds cash to my hot little hands. As long as it doesn't turn the play into overall -EV.Quote: GWAEIs there a possibility of a hedge here? I know it is against the commandments but sometimes it makes sense imo?
I highly suggest hedging for anyone short on their bankroll. Especially on the 1/2 parlays, you need ammo to keep firing.
I don't see any hedging opportunity here. perhaps if the win portion of the wager was still alive there could be, but with a push vs loss only left, there is no worthwhile opportunity.
Quote: kewlj
I don't see any hedging opportunity here. perhaps if the win portion of the wager was still alive there could be, but with a push vs loss only left, there is no worthwhile opportunity.
What are you talking about? Whether the total outcome is a win, loss, or push it totally irrelevant to hedging purposes.
Basically you have a ticket that will be worth $5000 if the Giants win, and $0 if the Eagles win. This is functionally equivalent to betting $2500 at +100 on the Giants.
If you'd like, you could hedge some of that by betting the Eagles moneyline. Sure, it will cost some EV because the moneyline won't be fair, it will have some vig built into it.
But almost all hedges cost EV, even in positive arbitrage plays.
Just because you're not locking in a profit doesn't mean you can't hedge. It works exactly the same way to reduce loss exposure.
Quote: sodawaterWhat are you talking about? Whether the total outcome is a win, loss, or push it totally irrelevant to hedging purposes.
Basically you have a ticket that will be worth $5000 if the Giants win, and $0 if the Eagles win. This is functionally equivalent to betting $2500 at +100 on the Giants.
If you'd like, you could hedge some of that by betting the Eagles moneyline. Sure, it will cost some EV because the moneyline won't be fair, it will have some vig built into it.
But almost all hedges cost EV, even in positive arbitrage plays.
Just because you're not locking in a profit doesn't mean you can't hedge. It works exactly the same way to reduce loss exposure.
Yeah, I guess you are right, soda, but normally when someone talks 'hedging' they are talking about locking in a win. In a case with only a push or loss, hedging would in effect do the opposite, lock in a loss. That is much less sexy. Lol. I'm going to take my chances. It's a bet that I had written off a month ago.
There you go that sounds like level headed thinking.Quote: kewljOn second thought, I will just wait and see what kind of money line we are talking about before making any final decision about hedging. Initially, I was thinking the eagles would be a big favorite, but with the Eagles playing poorly last 3 weeks and Giants playing slightly better and the Giants at home, it might be much closer to a pick em or even money moneyline.
Quote: kewljInteresting...The overnights are out and have the Giants as 2.5 favorites. If that holds, what does that translate to moneyline-wise? Maybe Eagles +130ish?
+2.5 -110 = +120 moneyline
The line is already moving toward 3 though so you could get +140
If the Eagles are 2.5-3.0 point underdog in this contest, is there a middling opportunity here (vs. betting the moneyline)?
Quote: KeeneoneHonest question:
If the Eagles are 2.5-3.0 point underdog in this contest, is there a middling opportunity here (vs. betting the moneyline)?
Yes, KJ could bet the Eagles +2.5 and hope that the Giants win by 1 or 2 points, thus cashing his hedge bet and pushing his season bet. But then he would be paying -110 on the wager instead of +120.
Quote: sodawater+2.5 -110 = +120 moneyline
The line is already moving toward 3 though so you could get +140
Is there some kind of formula/calculation behind this or is that just a rough estimate?
Quote: wudgedIs there some kind of formula/calculation behind this or is that just a rough estimate?
http://www.sportility.net/nfl/moneyline_points.html
Today I wagered a total of $2600 on the eagles +3 @ -110. so here are my possiblilities:
Eagles win, I cash my eagles +3 ticket for $4963, profit 2363 on this wager, while losing $5000 on my original eagles under wager Total loss $2637.
Giants win by 4 or more, I cash my original eagles ticket which pushed for $5000, but lose $2600 on the Eagles +3 wager for a total loss of $2600.
Giants win by 1 or 2, I push my original eagles under bet cashing ticket for $5000, and win my Eagles plus 3 wager for a total win of $2363
Giants win by 3, both my wagers push for a net win/loss of zero.
I guess there is also the slim possibility that the teams play to a tie, in which the results would be the same as a giants 1 or 2 pt win +$2363.
So, what I am really hoping for is a giants win of less than 3 or a tie. Otherwise, I am settleing for a loss of just over 50% of my original wager. Kind of like surrender in blackjack. :)
And thanks to keeneone and sodawater for pointing out this option.
Quote: dbldwn23I really hope the Giants win by only 1 or 2 that would be a great ending to a bet you already gave up on. I have the Vikings under for wins (currently tied) favored by 7 against the Bears. Any hedging ideas, i know its different since the are favored. Happy Holidays.
It depends on whether it is an amount that would be worth hedging to guarantee yourself some back, but you could always bet Vikings on the ML.
