am i missing something or is this a really good bet...

post about rugby league(NRL) again,
i like to look around for arbitrage bets, and i think i found a really good one , for the New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels, details listed below:

------

http://www.bet365.com.au/home/FlashGen4/WebConsoleApp.asp?&cb=1088142957

http://www.iasbet.com/betting/nrl-betting/New-Zealand-Warriors-v-Parramatta-Eels-1419931.html

------------------

bet365 has this market below

either team 'to win both halves' @ 1.95


iasbet has these markets below

'Half Time Margin', draw @ 12.00

New Zealand Warriors 'To Lead at H/T & Fail to Win' @ 12.00

Parramatta Eels 'To Lead at H/T & Fail to Win' @ 8.00


IF I HAVEN'T MADE AN ERROR, then the profit for a $100 investment on these markets is a whopping $24.30..., (a lot better than my previous rugby league post)

---------------------------------

too bad i have no money in these accounts, if my maths is right, lol

just realised i forgot to put in the odds for if the game ends in a draw so,
--------------------

iasbet has a 'game ends in a draw' market @ 36

-------------------
also, i am pretty sure there are no errors for the maths in this post now, so the profit on a $100 investment is $20.15... (which is still a very big R.O.I.)

-----------------

lastly, if you were advanced at sports betting you could take this further obviously by betting to payout more on certain outcomes and to pay out less on others, (if you had the tools and information to do that),
but i think just betting to a 'flat return' payout, is good enough for someone like me
----------------
Edit:

sorry for all the updates, but now i am not so sure which maths is correct, it depends on the sport-book's interpretation of team 'To Lead at H/T & Fail to Win', my interpretation of this is that a '... Fail to win' would include a loss or a draw, so now i think my original post is correct

even so, the profit for $100 investment is either, $20.15 (stated in this post), or $24.30 (stated in the original post)

update,

i should have done this before doing all this posting, i just asked iasbet about their 'To Lead at H/T & Fail to Win' bet, which means that i now know for certain that neither post was correct, (see extract of actual online help query, below)

-------------------------------------------------
Extract of help query:
"
....
me22:53
under the win markets, yes it is just a normal market



Corey22:54
So halftime/fulltime double?

me22:55
To Lead at H/T & Fail to Win



Corey22:56
Yes the dividend would be halved in the case of a draw on this market.

..."

----------------

i now know that the correct bet is to have a $1.69... bet on the 'game ends in a draw' market @ 36, because if the game ends in a draw, i would only get paid half the value of my 'to lead at H/T and fail to win' bet,

the correct 'guaranteed' profit for a $100 investment is now: $22.19...

----------------

lastly, if you left out the 'game ends in a draw' market***, you would make a theoretical loss of $37.85... for about 2% of the time, but 98% of the time you would profit $24.30 so that would mean that, leaving this bet out would have a slightly higher EV of $23.057..., compared to a 'guaranteed' Actual Value (AV) of $22.19..., if making 'the game ends in a draw bet' ,

if this slight increase in EV compared to the AV appeals to you then go for that one, but i would rather have a guaranteed winning outcome then a small chance for a loss with a higher EV

market***: this assumes that a game ending in a draw has a 2% chance of happening

If I understand correctly, there is no arbitrage here. It's possible for a team to lead at halftime and win, but not win both halves.

Eg:

Up 10-0 at halftime. Win 10-5 (I have no idea how the scoring in rugby works but you get the idea). So, in this case, none of your bets would win -- The team that was leading at halftime won, but did not win both halves.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

If I understand correctly, there is no arbitrage here. It's possible for a team to lead at halftime and win, but not win both halves.

Eg:

Up 10-0 at halftime. Win 10-5 (I have no idea how the scoring in rugby works but you get the idea). So, in this case, none of your bets would win -- The team that was leading at halftime won, but did not win both halves.

your right, i didn't think it through thoroughly

but i think i have found a simpler 'arb' bet here, when trying to make sure if there was a way of arbing the original posts (to reply to your above response)

New Zealand warriors vs Parramatta Eels Game

at top sport*** they have a will 'one team leads both halves', 'NO - Any Other Result' @ 3.4

website below***:
https://www.topsport.com.au/#View=GroupMatches&Code=RGLE&Sport=Rugby League&Group=NRL - Round 18

at bet365 they have a 'to win both halves market', 'Either Team @ 1.95

this results in a $100 investment, for a guaranteed win of $23.92...

-----

could someone check if i have missed anything here now, thanks

nb can't get the link i provided to work properly, so just cut and past the whole line into your web-browser's address bar (or whatever it is called)
then click on show hide all markets
and scroll down to the one team leads both halves market

I don't understand. What are you betting to get the arbitrage?

What does "lead both halves" mean? Does that mean win both halves? Or lead at some point in the half? Because it seems like whoever is leading at the end of the first will also be leading at the beginning of the 2nd, unless it's tied at halftime.

if the either team wins the first half, and the same team also wins the second half

-----
see examples


team (a) scores 10 - 0 in the first half, and then
team (a) scores 6 - 4 in the second half,

for a final score of team (a) 16 - 4,

or

team (b) score 8 - 4 in the first half, and then
team (b) score 8 - 6 in the second half

for a final score of team (b) 16 - 10,

then the 'yes to lead both halves' bet would win
------

if the "no - any other result happens', then i think they can't write that unless all possible combo's are included as 'any other result', but i have not asked them about this yet...

nothing can ever be totally risk free, so here is a list of SOME important risk factors

(1) is it 'legal' in my country to bet on an overseas gambling site/ sports-book: for example, in Australia it is 'illegal' to bet with an overseas site, BUT there is no penalty/jail-time for doing so, (the reason it is 'illegal', is that Australian customers have no legal course of action if the 'hypothetical' sports-book 'STEALS' the money from the customer)

(2) 'will i get paid if i win': need to read sports-book reviews, and look at financial documents (for publicly listed companies etc)

(3) 'Maximum bet exposure': eg bookmaker (a) may have a $1500 limit on the individual bet, bookmaker (b) may have $20,000 limit..., would need to get my bet on with bookmaker (a) first, in this example

(4) 'differing rules for game postponements': see extract of actual rules/ terms and conditions below at each of these two sports-books

Extract
----------
Top Sport

"Rugby League

When a match is abandoned or postponed, and played within 7 days of the original scheduled date, all bets stand. Once the 7 days have expired, all single bets that have not already reached a conclusion are void and wagers will be void. Any multi bet will be recalculated to exclude that leg."

------------
bet365

"Sports and Special Event Betting

If the venue for a sporting event is changed, all bets placed based on the original venue will be made void and stakes refunded, unless otherwise stated.

...Bets stand irrespective of fixture time changes"

----------

there are probably more risks to assess but these would be the main four, so this can never be a true 'arbitrage' bet, but it is probably as close as you can get to it in the 'real world'

i just asked the 'top-sport' about their terms of 'leading both halves' etc, and long story short, it looks like this post is not a good bet after all,

I will just stick with 'Wong' and 'semi-Wong'*** football teaser bets, and online casino's with + EV games, and/or/ + EV bonuses

*** 'semi-Wong' is just what i am calling 'betting a 7 point teaser, on the spread from -3.5 to + 3.5'

please read my latest post, if you want to read better articles than this one was, see link below:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/slots/18862-does-anyone-know-the-rtp-for-angry-birds-btd-for-the-main-game-as-the-side-game-is-ev-for-player/#post376804

Quote: ksdjdj

i just asked the 'top-sport' about their terms of 'leading both halves' etc, and long story short, it looks like this post is not a good bet after all,

I'm not surprised.

So, what does it actually mean? Do they have to be tied or in the lead for the entire half?