teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
  • Threads: 150
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June 21st, 2014 at 8:18:46 PM permalink
Quote: sddude24

crazy bets
http://espn.go.com/sports/soccer/story/_/id/11116564/2014-world-cup-lionel-messi-goal-iran-saves-bettor-more-350000

The TUSCANY took that action? I thought they were SKEEERED!

(Wait, was this the Wizard betting our donation money? :) )
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
  • Threads: 27
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June 22nd, 2014 at 4:12:14 AM permalink
Quote: sddude24

crazy bets
<http:lionel-messi-goal-saves-bettor-more-350000>

Why crazy?
As the Wizard says, it's whether you have a good bet. If the guy (and most of us) thinks Argentina has a more than 32/35 chance of beating Iran, then his EV is positive.

Now, this rejoins the thread about the lottery: EV is not enough, you got to look at variance and skewness. For most of us, losing 350,000 is worse than 35/3 times 30,000. We don't bet like this. But if this guy earns 5,000,000, what the f. ? (Now I wonder why he would want to gain 30,000 ; but football fandom and thrill may explain).
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
sddude24
sddude24
Joined: Jul 29, 2012
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June 22nd, 2014 at 11:18:59 AM permalink
I don't know his bankroll, but that's a lot of $ for one event and one individual. Could be a syndicate but they usually spread it around. Rule of thumb is never more than 2% of bankroll on one event.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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June 22nd, 2014 at 5:24:01 PM permalink
Quote: teddys

The TUSCANY took that action? I thought they were SKEEERED!

(Wait, was this the Wizard betting our donation money? :) )



But Tuscany didn't take the action. The William Hill outlet (they have over 100 NV brick & mortar outlets mostly in dumpy little frayed-carpet joints) at Tuscany booked the bet; Tuscany doesn't actually have a book.

And I'm glad to see Mr. Wizzard creatively growing his donation fund, but he could've got a better price of around -650.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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June 22nd, 2014 at 5:35:02 PM permalink
Chile originally opened at 35/1 to win the World Cup. The LVH line was at 25/1 as recently as about 48hrs ago. I missed that number but did get in at 20/1 from William Hill shortly before I saw it had moved further to 18/1 at Wynn yesterday evening. This is a long shot, one that of course probably won't cash, but I think a live long shot with > 5% chance. Plus, they are fun to watch.

And if it should get down to Argentina vs. Chile later, that could really be a lot of fun. Of course by fun I mean a cloud of tear gas & bodies to be hauled away.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
ijks
ijks
Joined: Jul 21, 2013
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June 22nd, 2014 at 9:11:22 PM permalink
Currently at +$900 in the World Cup (on Bovada).

Today I had money on Algeria since South Korea had 3 yellow cards from the previous game on 3 of their best players. Expected them to play "safer" then usual. Won a nice chunk there since odds were +240.

Also bet that Algeria vs South Korea will have more then 4.5 goals. Won a nice chunk there too.

Lost money on USA vs Portugal. Thought USA was going to win.. that goal at the last 10 seconds made my jaw drop.

For tomorrow, I got money on Netherlands to win. Also, for that games' score to be over 3.5 goals. Both of them have really good offense and weak defense. I expect plenty of goals.
I put a little bit of money on Austrailia when the odds were at +900. It dropped to +600 on Bovada. Reason being is Spain is already out and I think their morale dropped significantly. It's a gamble.
Skipping Cameroon vs Brazil. Brazil will win, but the odds suck. I don't think Brazil will play hard, just good enough to win. So I would advise not to take point spread bets except a -0.5 for Brazil (the odds are still bad for that bet).
Got money on Croatia for +155 odds to win straight up. Mexico hasn't been impressive, but Croatia has. I would recommend this bet and keep an eye on number 18 Olic. He's definitely a hidden MVP. I follow soccer a lot and he's playing such a solid game here. Not a famous player, but a hidden jewel none-the-less.
Buzzard
Buzzard
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
  • Threads: 90
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June 22nd, 2014 at 9:26:58 PM permalink
Quote: kenarman

I understand that a lot of people of lower intelect have trouble understanding the finer points of football (soccer). MMA is probably more to their taste.



at least i know how to spell intellect.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
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June 22nd, 2014 at 10:17:08 PM permalink
On the first weekend of the World Cup I was in the book of a large Las Vegas Strip property doing what I normally do pretty much every week, which usually doesn't involve a lot of involvement in team sports. And honestly, when the match between Italy & England was on that afternoon it easily won the award for the most extreme spoiled-child type "I demand that the world must revolve around ME" douchebaggery I've seen so far this year, and I do get out a bit. But then again this weekend, at another similar property, not so much at all, and other people were able to enjoy doing the business they came for involving other things.

I like to practice spelling "United States Federal Reserve Note" whenever I can.
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf
kenarman
kenarman
Joined: Nov 22, 2009
  • Threads: 28
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June 23rd, 2014 at 7:18:47 AM permalink
Ah Buzz but that is the Canadian spelling. ;-)
Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
Joined: Jun 13, 2014
  • Threads: 9
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June 23rd, 2014 at 5:06:13 PM permalink
In another forum where people are (or represent themselves to be) serious sports bettors there is discussion of the enhanced probability of a draw, the relative lack of incentive for scoring as opposed to defending, and the possibility of collusion, in the Germany vs. US match. Because a scoreless draw insures both will advance, benefiting both sides just as much as winning would benefit either, the game theory optimal play apparently would be for both sides to come out and wave to the crowd, then lay down for 90 minutes and take a nap.

I'm not knowlegeable enough about the sport to have an opinion on the liklihood of that, but I thought it was, uh, “interesting.”
"I'm against stuff like crack and math" --AxelWolf

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