Anyway, I'd love to be able to somehow bet belgium does not win the world cup. I feel like that's probably a +EV bet. Can anyone tell me how that's done?

Quote:NeutrinoI just saw the world cup bet odds came out and Belgium was ranked as #5 most likely to win the 2014 world cup. Gimme a break, belgium? this isn't chocolate eating contest. got their flag mixed up with germans maybe?

Anyway, I'd love to be able to somehow bet belgium does not win the world cup. I feel like that's probably a +EV bet. Can anyone tell me how that's done?

The only thing I know is that I hate soccer.

Quote:NeutrinoI just saw the world cup bet odds came out and Belgium was ranked as #5 most likely to win the 2014 world cup. Gimme a break, belgium? this isn't chocolate eating contest. got their flag mixed up with germans maybe?

Anyway, I'd love to be able to somehow bet belgium does not win the world cup. I feel like that's probably a +EV bet. Can anyone tell me how that's done?

Do you know what +ev means? How can you determine your expected value on a bet if you don't even know the odds you would get?

Sure I'll take your action... You can have Belgium not winning the world cup at -5000. Still think its plus EV?

Also...the least amount of searching would have led you to any number of sports futures websites where you can take a short position like this.

Hello from Belgium.Quote:NeutrinoI just saw the world cup bet odds came out and Belgium was ranked as #5 most likely to win the 2014 world cup. Gimme a break, belgium? this isn't chocolate eating contest. got their flag mixed up with germans maybe?

Anyway, I'd love to be able to somehow bet belgium does not win the world cup. I feel like that's probably a +EV bet. Can anyone tell me how that's done?

Don't bet unless you really follow today's football. Courtois, Kompany, Lukaku, etc are all playing in top European clubs in Spain, England, Germany...

Quote:kubikulannHello from Belgium.

Don't bet unless you really follow today's football. Courtois, Kompany, Lukaku, etc are all playing in top European clubs in Spain, England, Germany...

oh wow thanks for the warning

Quote:Neutrino

Anyway, I'd love to be able to somehow bet belgium does not win the world cup. I feel like that's probably a +EV bet. Can anyone tell me how that's done?

That's easy, bet on all the others.

Quote:Sabretom2That's easy, bet on all the others.

lol

Quote:Neutrino

Anyway, I'd love to be able to somehow bet belgium does not win the world cup. I feel like that's probably a +EV bet. Can anyone tell me how that's done?

Wll 5th does not say much.

Betfair market shows the following Back - Lay Odds:

1. Brazil 4.0 - 4.1

2. Argentina 6.0 - 6.2

3. Germany 7.4 - 7.6

4. Spain 7.4 - 7.6

5.Belgium 21 - 22

So even though is 5th its very different from the 4th.

Back odds is the odds when you bet for the bet, ie you bet $1 Brazil to win and if you win you get $4.0 (that's including the original bet, ie win $3)

Lay odds is being the bookmaker, you Lay $4,1 for Brazil, if Brazil wins you lose $4,1 if not you win $1.

So for Belgium you need to risk $22 to win $1.

These odds mean that Befair market gives a probability of around 4,5% for Belgium to win.

Compared to 25% for Brazil and 13% for Germany and Spain.

Betfair is about as the most efficient Sporting odds market there is especially on Soccer on big events.

Still the odds for Belhium seem quite good if you compare say with

France 27-28

England 28-29

Italy 29-30

Quote:Neutrinooh wow thanks for the warning

So you posted a thread about how little chance Belguim has, then you consider one post from a guy in Belguim who names 3 players and says they have a chance ... to be a warning??

And you claim to be an AP?

11/10/13 Croatia v Belgium 1-2

15/10/13 Belgium v Wales 1-1

14/11/13 Belgium v Colombia 0-2

19/11/13 Belgium v Japan 2-3

5/3/14 Belgium v Ivory Coast 2-2

And friendlies coming up before the world cup

26/5/14 Belgium v Luxembourg

1/6/14 Sweden v Belgium

7/6/14 Belgium v Tunisia

So not an impressive recent track record.

If you are serious about following the odds on the world cup, then you need to see how teams are doing in the pre-world cup friendlies.

And national team strength is different than the sum of the individual players.

National teams do not play as often as clubs. You need to see whether they have managed to build up a team that can play well together and not just that they have a few good players in the team.

Quote:AceTwoJust some stats on Belgium National team:

11/10/13 Croatia v Belgium 1-2

15/10/13 Belgium v Wales 1-1

14/11/13 Belgium v Colombia 0-2

19/11/13 Belgium v Japan 2-3

5/3/14 Belgium v Ivory Coast 2-2

And friendlies coming up before the world cup

26/5/14 Belgium v Luxembourg

1/6/14 Sweden v Belgium

7/6/14 Belgium v Tunisia

So not an impressive recent track record.

If you are serious about following the odds on the world cup, then you need to see how teams are doing in the pre-world cup friendlies.

And national team strength is different than the sum of the individual players.

National teams do not play as often as clubs. You need to see whether they have managed to build up a team that can play well together and not just that they have a few good players in the team.

Thanks, once again I'm back to believing Belgium doesn't really have a chance.

Why are the back lay odds so different from the straight win odds though? on bovada I don't see a back lay odds but straight win pay for Belgium is bet 1 to win 14. there's a really big gap between that and bet 22 to win 1. Someone is miscalculating Belgium's strength.

Quote:FinsRuleFuture bets have the highest edge of all sports bets.

wait, so you're saying the 1/15 vs 1/22 is not a matter of different opinion among sportsbooks but just house edge?

I am not a specialist of football, but your selection is partial: you omit the results of qualification, which allowed Belgium to become head of series. That means being in the top eight world teams in FIFA terms.Quote:AceTwoJust some stats on Belgium National team:

11/10/13 Croatia v Belgium 1-2

15/10/13 Belgium v Wales 1-1

14/11/13 Belgium v Colombia 0-2

19/11/13 Belgium v Japan 2-3

5/3/14 Belgium v Ivory Coast 2-2

So not an impressive recent track record.

If you are serious about following the odds on the world cup, then you need to see how teams are doing in the pre-world cup friendlies.

The results you mention (except the first) are friendlies, where the national coach is experimenting with different layouts. It is normal that the results are less impressive. So, I would say official results are more indicative than friendlies.

But, hey, I don't care about the Belgian football team or who wins the Mundial. I just thought that Neuno was being a bit quick in his judgment (on the lines of "big country big chance, small country small chance")

Quote:Neutrinowait, so you're saying the 1/15 vs 1/22 is not a matter of different opinion among sportsbooks but just house edge?

1-15 = 15/16 fair odds (1.0667 recurring decimal odds).

22-1 = 1/23 fair odds (23.0 decimal odds)

total book = 98%

Suggests there is value in there somewhere, as the book should add up to over 100%. $1 on a Belgium win and $18 on a Belgium loss would result in a profit either way ($4 if they win, $1.20 if they lose).

I may have made a mistake. I await Buzz to point it out :)

EDIT :

I lined it up the wrong way around. 14-1 to win, 1-22 to lose. :

102.3% book. No obvious value, but quite a thin difference. But I'd expect that from the exchanges.

Quote:FinsRuleFuture bets have the highest edge of all sports bets.

Not true with a site like Betfair. The markets on popular sports are highly liquid and highly efficient. The World Cup winner market is currently at 103.6%. By the time the tournament starts it will be very close to 100%. IE no edge at all.

Quote:Neutrino

Someone is miscalculating Belgium's strength.

Nope, you are reading the odds wrong.

Quote:

Why are the back lay odds so different from the straight win odds though? on bovada I don't see a back lay odds but straight win pay for Belgium is bet 1 to win 14. there's a really big gap between that and bet 22 to win 1.

bet 1 win 14 on bovada is a *back* bet, you risk 1 and get 14 if belgium wins.

bet 22 to win 1 on betfair is a *lay* bet, you risk 22 and get 1 if belgium does not win. That is the same as giving someone else "bet 1 win 22" and you take the other side of the bet.

The difference is not a "really big gap", you just don't understand sport bets and their exchange well enough. If you are an AP and you *do* find a "big gap": it's actually easy money laying around (just bet the appropriate opposites).

And I would disagree that big gaps mean easy money. Big gaps generally mean there isn't much liquidity in the market for whatever reason. Usually because it's too far from the start time. You won't make money in this situation because you will be unlikely to find someone else to match your bet.

Quote:AussieNot true with a site like Betfair. The markets on popular sports are highly liquid and highly efficient. The World Cup winner market is currently at 103.6%. By the time the tournament starts it will be very close to 100%. IE no edge at all.

One day I'll get to use Betfair... Our country is dumb when it comes to gambling.

Quote:AussieIt's not 22-1 to lay. Market is quoted in decimals. 22 = 21-1. Risk 21 to win 1 when laying.

And I would disagree that big gaps mean easy money. Big gaps generally mean there isn't much liquidity in the market for whatever reason. Usually because it's too far from the start time. You won't make money in this situation because you will be unlikely to find someone else to match your bet.

Big gaps when the book is over 100% means there's no easy value to find. There may be some if you do your own analysis and have secret sauce to work out that Belgium are actually 5-1 odds to win the World Cup.

When it gets narrow, the market is being more efficient, but it also may mean one side or the other is wrong enough to give you an edge.

You can try and form your own book too, but that's seems like a foolish quest, and the small percentage points will end up snaffled up by brokerage fees.

Quote:sodawaterOP seems to think Belgium not winning the World Cup is +EV at ANY price. So my offer remains, you can lay -5000 against Belgium vs. me.

I'll give you -4500.

Quote:FinsRuleI'll give you -4500.

Deal, how much do you wish to bet?

Quote:AussieIt's not 22-1 to lay. Market is quoted in decimals. 22 = 21-1. Risk 21 to win 1 when laying.

Yeah, whatever.... I'm used in sports betting to decimal odds, not the inconsistent UK stuff (american odds is much worse by the way).

Quote:And I would disagree that big gaps mean easy money. Big gaps generally mean there isn't much liquidity in the market for whatever reason. Usually because it's too far from the start time. You won't make money in this situation because you will be unlikely to find someone else to match your bet.

There I must disagree. High liquidity usually comes with high efficiency, i.e. the absence of arbitrage opportunities (for the simple reason that all arbitrage opportunities - i.e. riskless profit - are creamed off by other market agents). Hence if you are looking for value bets, it will only be in the low-liquidity markets. It doesn't say that they are easy to find though.

"will be unlikely to find someone else to match your bet". Well, every offer you see on exchanges like betfair is in fact an unmatched bet. You are the other side who will match it. So when quoting odds from betfair it is implied that they will be matched when you take the bet.

You're right that each offer you see is unmatched. The point is when there are large gaps between back and lay prices there is inevitable low liquidity. You won't be able to instantly match a bet for any more than a few dollars and if you want to get on for more than that it will take you a significant amount of time and effort. Good luck with that.

Quote:Neutrino

Anyway, I'd love to be able to somehow bet belgium does not win the world cup. I feel like that's probably a +EV bet. Can anyone tell me how that's done?

If you truly feel think feel Belgium is overrated, here's what you should do:

1. Convert all the other countries to decimal odds, if they aren't already.

2. Take the reciprocal of each, and multiply by one million.

3. Put the countries in some order, with their associated numbers, and commit to it.

4. Go to random.org and pick a number between 1 and the sum of all the numbers.

5. Going down the list of countries, add up the numbers until you surpass the number the RNG gave you. The last country you added on, bet that one.

If Belgium is sufficiently overrated that laying it would be a winning bet, this will also be a winning bet. The expected value of this procedure, or any involving a random number generator, is (as a multiple of your stake) Σ(p*q*r), where p is a given country's chance of winning, q is your chance of having chosen that country, and r is the payoff for that country. By this procedure, the product of q and r is constant for each team, so the sum becomes q

_{0}*r

_{0}*Σp, where Σp adds up to the probability of a country other than Belgium winning. If Belgium really is overrated enough to beat the vig, this number will be greater than 1. (You can test it as you're doing this - divide any country's number by the total, and multiply by the payout for that country - that's q

_{0}*r

_{0}. If you think the chance of a country other than Belgium winning is higher than the reciprocal of that, there you go. Of course, if it's less than 1 - and it might be - I found a bookie with over a 20% vig on the World Cup - it doesn't matter.)

(Incidentally, since you mentioned Bovada, I just checked, and nope, this wouldn't work on Bovada - q

_{0}*r

_{0}is about .89.)

Quote:AceTwoWll 5th does not say much.

Betfair market shows the following Back - Lay Odds:

1. Brazil 4.0 - 4.1

2. Argentina 6.0 - 6.2

3. Germany 7.4 - 7.6

4. Spain 7.4 - 7.6

5.Belgium 21 - 22

So even though is 5th its very different from the 4th.

Back odds is the odds when you bet for the bet, ie you bet $1 Brazil to win and if you win you get $4.0 (that's including the original bet, ie win $3)

Lay odds is being the bookmaker, you Lay $4,1 for Brazil, if Brazil wins you lose $4,1 if not you win $1.

So for Belgium you need to risk $22 to win $1.

These odds mean that Befair market gives a probability of around 4,5% for Belgium to win.

Compared to 25% for Brazil and 13% for Germany and Spain.

Betfair is about as the most efficient Sporting odds market there is especially on Soccer on big events.

Still the odds for Belhium seem quite good if you compare say with

France 27-28

England 28-29

Italy 29-30

Dude, stop switching between a period and a comma for your decimal mark! I was confuzled.

Quote:24BingoIf you truly feel think feel Belgium is overrated, here's what you should do:

1. Convert all the other countries to decimal odds, if they aren't already.

2. Take the reciprocal of each, and multiply by one million.

3. Put the countries in some order, with their associated numbers, and commit to it.

4. Go to random.org and pick a number between 1 and the sum of all the numbers.

5. Going down the list of countries, add up the numbers until you surpass the number the RNG gave you. The last country you added on, bet that one.

If Belgium is sufficiently overrated that laying it would be a winning bet, this will also be a winning bet. The expected value of this procedure, or any involving a random number generator, is (as a multiple of your stake) Σ(p*q*r), where p is a given country's chance of winning, q is your chance of having chosen that country, and r is the payoff for that country. By this procedure, the product of q and r is constant for each team, so the sum becomes q_{0}*r_{0}*Σp, where Σp adds up to the probability of a country other than Belgium winning. If Belgium really is overrated enough to beat the vig, this number will be greater than 1. (You can test it as you're doing this - divide any country's number by the total, and multiply by the payout for that country - that's q_{0}*r_{0}. If you think the chance of a country other than Belgium winning is higher than the reciprocal of that, there you go. Of course, if it's less than 1 - and it might be - I found a bookie with over a 20% vig on the World Cup - it doesn't matter.)

(Incidentally, since you mentioned Bovada, I just checked, and nope, this wouldn't work on Bovada - q_{0}*r_{0}is about .89.)

Doesn't this assume that the over-rating on Belgium is evenly distributed among the other teams? Maybe England are also over rated, so if your algorithm picks England, it may still be a bad bet?

Quote:thecesspitDoesn't this assume that the over-rating on Belgium is evenly distributed among the other teams? Maybe England are also over rated, so if your algorithm picks England, it may still be a bad bet?

It doesn't matter - by taking it out of human hands, the probabilities cancel no matter what they are. If England is overrated, and the algorithm picks England, that's a bad bet, but England can't be overrated without some other country being underrated. Because it's a constant, it would work even if somehow only Iran could possibly win, provided that you were somehow ahead of the rake (which, again, unless you find a very generous vig, probably won't be doable by eliminating Belgium, even if you could). Same number, no matter what.

Quote:Neutrino

Anyway, I'd love to be able to somehow bet belgium does not win the world cup. I feel like that's probably a +EV bet. Can anyone tell me how that's done?

You may well get a better bet if you bet on Belgium to win. They are a legit contender.

However, you pretty clearly don't know much about soccer. If I were you, I wouldn't trust my gut here. Frankly, for all your insistence that you can turn poker into a purely mathematical exercise, I'm kind of stunned by your sudden faith in your own intuition.

Quote:24BingoIf you truly feel think feel Belgium is overrated, here's what you should do:

1. Convert all the other countries to decimal odds, if they aren't already.

2. Take the reciprocal of each, and multiply by one million.

3. Put the countries in some order, with their associated numbers, and commit to it.

4. Go to random.org and pick a number between 1 and the sum of all the numbers.

5. Going down the list of countries, add up the numbers until you surpass the number the RNG gave you. The last country you added on, bet that one.

If Belgium is sufficiently overrated that laying it would be a winning bet, this will also be a winning bet.

If this is a winning bet, why not repeat it a bazillion of times ? Then you could just bet every contry with a weight inversely to their decimal odds.

Much simpler, and it reduces variance also.

(* That is, not strictly to "repeat it a gazillion times," but to put on each country some multiple of its associated number, dropping the randomization entirely.)

Quote:Neutrino

Anyway, I'd love to be able to somehow bet belgium does not win the world cup. I feel like that's probably a +EV bet. Can anyone tell me how that's done?

So, I checked Belgium's squad after I read your post.With Kompany and Vermaelen defending, opponents should be worried. We know how desciplined Kompany (c) is. Vermaelen too. I think these 2 are big factors why they are ranked 5th to win the title. They also have Eden Hazard and Lukaku up front.

For me, they will win their group stage (maybe 1st or 2nd) but they will not win the title this time. Maybe because they lack experience compared to hardcore national squads like Spain, Netherlands, and Germany. I dont even think Brazil will win.

Quote:NeutrinoI also think argentina is overrated. They haven't gotten anything decent in world cup forever

The world cup is every four years. Teams change in that time. Previous results only have a small effect on current form. England won in 1966. That means nothing except they get a little gold star above their three lions.

AhemQuote:SonuvabishThe only thing I know is that I hate soccer.

"Hate"? Interesting... As well as the need to proclaim it.Quote:SonuvabishThe only thing I know is that I hate soccer.

Tell us:

Did a soccer player steal your first girlfriend?

Did you get hit in the balls by a soccer ball?

Quote:oliviabellaI stand by Spanish.Victory over Spain could be start of something special in World Cup for Netherlands

lol