Poll

1 vote (7.14%)
7 votes (50%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (14.28%)
3 votes (21.42%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (7.14%)
3 votes (21.42%)

14 members have voted

bbbbcccc
bbbbcccc
Joined: Sep 5, 2013
  • Threads: 7
  • Posts: 71
May 7th, 2014 at 6:44:08 PM permalink
Quote: midwestgb

Bovada lists the U.S. and Portugal to jointly advance at 16-1, which seems an interesting wager.



Germany not advancing would be one of the biggest shocks in recent history. They are stacked.
MrWarmth
MrWarmth
Joined: Apr 11, 2014
  • Threads: 15
  • Posts: 170
May 7th, 2014 at 8:18:42 PM permalink
Quote: midwestgb

Bovada lists the U.S. and Portugal to jointly advance at 16-1, which seems an interesting wager.



That does seem a little low to me and therefore a bad bet. Maybe a parlay would be better, guessing would pay better, if this is what you think but don't know for sure. Germany not getting out of group is ... umm ... unlikely, but big shocks have happened (02 France, 02 Argentina, 10 Italy; to lesser extents 02 Portugal, 98 Spain, 94 Colombia are more recent upsets I can recall). Germany seem more stable than these teams overall and it's not a bet I would make, but not unprecedented.

ESPN soccer has it about right, I think. Although I don't remember the exact numbers, the probability they give each team of getting out of group is something like Germany 90%, Portugal 40%, USA 35%, Ghana 20%.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
May 7th, 2014 at 10:38:28 PM permalink
Looking at BoDog, I quite like the 6/5 offered for England to get eliminated at the group stages (Uruguay and Italy are favourites to qualify from that group). If you fancy it being a South American team -110 for that continent to provide the winner might be a decent wager too.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
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May 7th, 2014 at 10:40:47 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Looking at BoDog, I quite like the 6/5 offered for England to get eliminated at the group stages (Uruguay and Italy are favourites to qualify from that group). If you fancy it being a South American team -110 for that continent to provide the winner might be a decent wager too.



Note that it is possible for 3 teams to all be favorites to finish in the top 2 :)
teddys
teddys
Joined: Nov 14, 2009
  • Threads: 150
  • Posts: 5441
May 10th, 2014 at 9:50:27 AM permalink
Bosnia & Herzegovina FTMFW!

Do they still have Edin Dzeko?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4

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