Poll

1 vote (7.14%)
7 votes (50%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (14.28%)
3 votes (21.42%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (7.14%)
3 votes (21.42%)

14 members have voted

aceofspades
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:14:41 AM permalink
I hope the WIZARD doesn't mind but I figured I would start a thread about the 2014 World Cup.

Is anyone betting this?
Who ya got?

Current odds online (these are UK odds - does anyone have the Vegas odds?):


FinsRule
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:19:59 AM permalink
I'm going to be betting this when I go to Vegas next week, so I'd like some opinions.

I'm betting against the host country and Argentina. So what provides the best value out of the other countries?

My first three thoughts are (in no particular order)

Germany
Belgium
Colombia

Please talk me into or off of these choices.
aceofspades
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:22:19 AM permalink
Is there an over/under on # of riots?
aceofspades
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:22:54 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I'm going to be betting this when I go to Vegas next week, so I'd like some opinions.

I'm betting against the host country and Argentina. So what provides the best value out of the other countries?

My first three thoughts are (in no particular order)

Germany
Belgium
Colombia

Please talk me into or off of these choices.




I will not be the one to talk you into those - I have a feeling that Brasil is going to be unstoppable int heir home country. But, I know a few people who feel that Colombia is going to run away with it.
SOOPOO
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:26:20 AM permalink
I find value in Uruguay at 28-1, and the USA at 125-1.
aceofspades
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:27:24 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I find value in Uruguay at 28-1, and the USA at 125-1.




Yeah couple bucks on USA is not a bad idea at all - tremendous value plus get to root for our guys
MrWarmth
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:29:37 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I'm going to be betting this when I go to Vegas next week, so I'd like some opinions.

I'm betting against the host country and Argentina. So what provides the best value out of the other countries?

My first three thoughts are (in no particular order)

Germany
Belgium
Colombia

Please talk me into or off of these choices.



Feel free to bet how you want, but in general, European teams don't win World Cups off their own continent ... it's only happened once, but that time was Spain in 2010. Also, no team from other than Europe or South America has ever won.

IMHO, the winner will either be Brazil or Argentina.

If you're looking for value ... at least in the same way as we bet major league sports here ... I might re-think that. Surprises can and do make it out of the group but a trip past the quarters is rare-in-the-extreme, with South Korea 02 as host reaching the semis.

But that being said, the best "value" is probably a non-Brazil or Argentina South American team (Uruguay, Colombia), followed by maybe Netherlands, Italy, or Germany .. although Germany would not, I think, be a "value" as they're perennial semi-finalists, and one or two good bounces can easily see them win.

Belgium = no, as they lost Benteke. Euro 16 should be interesting for them, though.
1arrowheaddr
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:34:20 AM permalink
Brazil is -400 to win Group A.

MGM opened USA 17/1 to win Group G. There was some value there.
FinsRule
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May 7th, 2014 at 10:14:04 AM permalink
Okay, I'll throw a few bucks on Colombia.

They seem a lock to win their group which I like.
thecesspit
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May 7th, 2014 at 10:22:56 AM permalink
Belgium are perennial hopes at the World Cup, but never deliver. Every few years we hear about some resurgence in Belgian football hopes and every time it's a damp squib.

I would probably take Brazil at 3-1... home advantage coupled with having the players who play as a team. USA 125-1 is only worth a shot if you can get them to reach the semi's... I'd say anyone over the 25-1 mark is not going to take it home (and I include the England side, they just aren't that good at all).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
bbbbcccc
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May 7th, 2014 at 10:27:40 AM permalink
My favorites are #1 Germany #2 Brazil #2 Uruguay.

Betting on the US here would be unbelievably dumb. We face Ghana, who knocked us out of the last two WCs. We face Portugal, where Ronaldo is playing as well as anyone on the planet. Our only hope is that we split Ghana and Portugal, and Germany wins their first two in a huge fashion so they sit people when we play them in the last game of the group.

The only American playing worth anything right now is Bradley.
MrWarmth
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May 7th, 2014 at 12:30:10 PM permalink
Quote: bbbbcccc

My favorites are #1 Germany #2 Brazil #2 Uruguay.

Betting on the US here would be unbelievably dumb. We face Ghana, who knocked us out of the last two WCs. We face Portugal, where Ronaldo is playing as well as anyone on the planet. Our only hope is that we split Ghana and Portugal, and Germany wins their first two in a huge fashion so they sit people when we play them in the last game of the group.

The only American playing worth anything right now is Bradley.



I'm not saying betting the US isn't dumb, but Dempsey is on major fire right now, leading the league in scoring (for what that's worth) from the midfield, same place Bradley plays. Bradley is excellent and the horse to which our wagon will and should be hitched, but Dempsey is on freakin' fire right now. Put now-Dempsey and 2013-Altidore along with 2009-Gooch and 2009-DeMerit and we might've been able to make a dent.

My US prediction? Coin flip to get out of group, but if we do, we should get to QFs like last World Cup <ahem>.
bbbbcccc
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May 7th, 2014 at 12:42:08 PM permalink
Quote: MrWarmth

I'm not saying betting the US isn't dumb, but Dempsey is on major fire right now, leading the league in scoring (for what that's worth) from the midfield, same place Bradley plays. Bradley is excellent and the horse to which our wagon will and should be hitched, but Dempsey is on freakin' fire right now. Put now-Dempsey and 2013-Altidore along with 2009-Gooch and 2009-DeMerit and we might've been able to make a dent.

My US prediction? Coin flip to get out of group, but if we do, we should get to QFs like last World Cup <ahem>.



Dempsey couldn't even get on the pitch at Fulham, which is now a Championship side.
MrWarmth
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May 7th, 2014 at 12:49:17 PM permalink
Quote: bbbbcccc

Dempsey couldn't even get on the pitch at Fulham, which is now a Championship side.



That's ... an ... interpretation. A correct interpretation would be that Fulham is now in the Championship because Dempsey left. He held their PL scoring record when he left for Tottenham before 2012-13. Since then, it's been all downhill for Fulham ... 52 pts in his last year (2011-12) became 43 after his departure and relegation this year on 31 +/- points.

It's OK to be a Euro-snob when it comes to soccer, Euros are better at it. But at least get your facts straight rather than just hate US players.
AxiomOfChoice
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May 7th, 2014 at 12:54:27 PM permalink
This thread reminds me that, a year or two ago, a friend of mine was VERY sure that the US would make it to either the quarter-finals or semi-finals (I don't remember) of this world cup. I'm going to see if he still feels this way and will make me a large even-money bet.
bbbbcccc
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:04:51 PM permalink
Quote: MrWarmth

That's ... an ... interpretation. A correct interpretation would be that Fulham is now in the Championship because Dempsey left. He held their PL scoring record when he left for Tottenham before 2012-13. Since then, it's been all downhill for Fulham ... 52 pts in his last year (2011-12) became 43 after his departure and relegation this year on 31 +/- points.

It's OK to be a Euro-snob when it comes to soccer, Euros are better at it. But at least get your facts straight rather than just hate US players.



THAT'S ... an ...interpretation. Dempsey left Fulham for Tottenham, where he did absolutely nothing. Having washed up in the third best league in Europe, he returned to the MLS. Knowing that Klinsi wants players in Europe, he took a loan to Fulham where he couldn't help but ride the pine on the off chance that he actually made the team sheet.

The guy was good a few years ago, but he hasn't been a starter for a couple of years now, on two different teams, and he couldn't even be one on Fulham.
Canyonero
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:09:42 PM permalink
Russia seems to stand out, I am really surprised to see that number. That means that you probably should be careful about my advice since I might be missing something.

Some info about Russia:

+ strong performance in qualification, winning their group ahead of Portugal
+ likely to win their group, almost impossible to be eliminated (vs. Algeria, Belgium, South Korea)
+ strong team with internationally (CL) experienced players and coach
+ almost all the players play in the Russian league, which allows for excellent long term preparation

Please tell me what I am missing, otherwise 66 to 1 is a great bet if I ever saw one.
bbbbcccc
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:16:06 PM permalink
Quote: Canyonero

Russia seems to stand out, I am really surprised to see that number. That means that you probably should be careful about my advice since I might be missing something.

Some info about Russia:

+ likely to win their group, almost impossible to be eliminated (vs. Algeria, Belgium, South Korea)
+ strong team with internationally (CL) experienced players and coach
+ almost all the players play in the Russian league, which allows for excellent long term preparation

Please tell me what I am missing, otherwise 66 to 1 is a great bet if I ever saw one.



I wouldn't say it is impossible for them to be eliminated. Belgium should win that group, and Algeria is probably even money for second. Even South Korea could be a threat. (They have several players in the Bundesliga, particularly on Mainz)
Strong team is a probably an overstatement
Players playing in the Russian league is not excellent long term preparation as it is against vastly inferior competition.

Russia has no chance.
aceofspades
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:38:36 PM permalink
I know I posted the UK bookmaking odds - does anyone know what the current Vegas odds are on the cup?
Canyonero
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:41:03 PM permalink
Quote: bbbbcccc

and Algeria is probably even money for second.



Seriously? I take that bet! You can get 8 to 1 on the internet though, so you better go for that...

Quote: bbbbcccc


Players playing in the Russian league is not excellent long term preparation as it is against vastly inferior competition.



The excellent preparation statement is referring to the national coach being close to the players and able to get the National Team together on a regular basis, something Brazil for example cannot do.
Canyonero
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:46:11 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

I know I posted the UK bookmaking odds - does anyone know what the current Vegas odds are on the cup?



These odds seem pretty bad btw. For comparison, some odds here in Switzerland:

Edit: "for 1" is implied behind all the numbers. So $1 on Brazil will return $4 total . Subtract 1 when comparing to UK odds.

Brasilien 4,0 Argentinien 6,0 Deutschland 6,5 Spanien 7,0

Belgien 18 Frankreich 22 Italien 25 Uruguay 25 Niederlande 30

England 30 Portugal 30 Kolumbien 35 Chile 45 Russland 100

Mexiko 120 Schweiz 120 Kroatien 150 Elfenbeinküste 170
aceofspades
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:47:42 PM permalink
Quote: Canyonero

These odds seem pretty bad btw. For comparison, some odds here in Switzerland:

Brasilien 4,0 Argentinien 6,0 Deutschland 6,5 Spanien 7,0

Belgien 18 Frankreich 22 Italien 25 Uruguay 25 Niederlande 30

England 30 Portugal 30 Kolumbien 35 Chile 45 Russland 100

Mexiko 120 Schweiz 120 Kroatien 150 Elfenbeinküste 170





What do these numbers mean?
bbbbcccc
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May 7th, 2014 at 1:49:51 PM permalink
Quote: Canyonero

Seriously? I take that bet! You can get 8 to 1 on the internet though, so you better go for that...



The excellent preparation statement is referring to the national coach being close to the players and able to get the National Team together on a regular basis, something Brazil for example cannot do.



Bovada is actually offering 10/1 for Belgium/Algeria to advance out of that group. I think that is a great bet.
Canyonero
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May 7th, 2014 at 2:00:12 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

What do these numbers mean?



An important question, sorry for not mentioning it:

"for 1" is implied behind all the numbers. So $1 on Brazil will return $4 total . Subtract 1 when comparing to UK odds.
aceofspades
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May 7th, 2014 at 2:02:26 PM permalink
Quote: Canyonero

An important question, sorry for not mentioning it:

"for 1" is implied behind all the numbers. So $1 on Brazil will return $4 total . Subtract 1 when comparing to UK odds.




What about the "0"
MrWarmth
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May 7th, 2014 at 2:10:50 PM permalink
Quote: bbbbcccc

THAT'S ... an ...interpretation. Dempsey left Fulham for Tottenham, where he did absolutely nothing. Having washed up in the third best league in Europe, he returned to the MLS. Knowing that Klinsi wants players in Europe, he took a loan to Fulham where he couldn't help but ride the pine on the off chance that he actually made the team sheet.



That's a little like saying Joe Montana sucks because he didn't win any championships with the Chiefs.

Haters gonna hate; know-it-alls gonna know it all.
Canyonero
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May 7th, 2014 at 2:16:26 PM permalink
Quote: aceofspades

What about the "0"



comma (,) = point (.)

4,0 means 4.0


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decimal_mark#Hindu.E2.80.93Arabic_numeral_system
AxiomOfChoice
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May 7th, 2014 at 2:21:58 PM permalink
Clearly the 60% needs to gang up on the 24% and put a stop to this comma nonsense. Then we can try to figure out what this other 16% is up to.
Canyonero
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May 7th, 2014 at 2:31:57 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Clearly the 60% needs to gang up on the 24% and put a stop to this comma nonsense. Then we can try to figure out what this other 16% is up to.



Did you notice the best part: Switzerland is in both lists! And we really do use both! Being neutral is one thing, but this is just ridiculous...
midwestgb
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May 7th, 2014 at 3:37:44 PM permalink
Bovada lists the U.S. and Portugal to jointly advance at 16-1, which seems an interesting wager.
bbbbcccc
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May 7th, 2014 at 6:44:08 PM permalink
Quote: midwestgb

Bovada lists the U.S. and Portugal to jointly advance at 16-1, which seems an interesting wager.



Germany not advancing would be one of the biggest shocks in recent history. They are stacked.
MrWarmth
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May 7th, 2014 at 8:18:42 PM permalink
Quote: midwestgb

Bovada lists the U.S. and Portugal to jointly advance at 16-1, which seems an interesting wager.



That does seem a little low to me and therefore a bad bet. Maybe a parlay would be better, guessing would pay better, if this is what you think but don't know for sure. Germany not getting out of group is ... umm ... unlikely, but big shocks have happened (02 France, 02 Argentina, 10 Italy; to lesser extents 02 Portugal, 98 Spain, 94 Colombia are more recent upsets I can recall). Germany seem more stable than these teams overall and it's not a bet I would make, but not unprecedented.

ESPN soccer has it about right, I think. Although I don't remember the exact numbers, the probability they give each team of getting out of group is something like Germany 90%, Portugal 40%, USA 35%, Ghana 20%.
thecesspit
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May 7th, 2014 at 10:38:28 PM permalink
Looking at BoDog, I quite like the 6/5 offered for England to get eliminated at the group stages (Uruguay and Italy are favourites to qualify from that group). If you fancy it being a South American team -110 for that continent to provide the winner might be a decent wager too.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AxiomOfChoice
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May 7th, 2014 at 10:40:47 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Looking at BoDog, I quite like the 6/5 offered for England to get eliminated at the group stages (Uruguay and Italy are favourites to qualify from that group). If you fancy it being a South American team -110 for that continent to provide the winner might be a decent wager too.



Note that it is possible for 3 teams to all be favorites to finish in the top 2 :)
teddys
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May 10th, 2014 at 9:50:27 AM permalink
Bosnia & Herzegovina FTMFW!

Do they still have Edin Dzeko?
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
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