Poll

1 vote (7.14%)
7 votes (50%)
No votes (0%)
2 votes (14.28%)
3 votes (21.42%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (7.14%)
3 votes (21.42%)

14 members have voted

aceofspades
aceofspades
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:14:41 AM permalink
I hope the WIZARD doesn't mind but I figured I would start a thread about the 2014 World Cup.

Is anyone betting this?
Who ya got?

Current odds online (these are UK odds - does anyone have the Vegas odds?):


FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:19:59 AM permalink
I'm going to be betting this when I go to Vegas next week, so I'd like some opinions.

I'm betting against the host country and Argentina. So what provides the best value out of the other countries?

My first three thoughts are (in no particular order)

Germany
Belgium
Colombia

Please talk me into or off of these choices.
aceofspades
aceofspades
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:22:19 AM permalink
Is there an over/under on # of riots?
aceofspades
aceofspades
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:22:54 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I'm going to be betting this when I go to Vegas next week, so I'd like some opinions.

I'm betting against the host country and Argentina. So what provides the best value out of the other countries?

My first three thoughts are (in no particular order)

Germany
Belgium
Colombia

Please talk me into or off of these choices.




I will not be the one to talk you into those - I have a feeling that Brasil is going to be unstoppable int heir home country. But, I know a few people who feel that Colombia is going to run away with it.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:26:20 AM permalink
I find value in Uruguay at 28-1, and the USA at 125-1.
aceofspades
aceofspades
Joined: Apr 4, 2012
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:27:24 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I find value in Uruguay at 28-1, and the USA at 125-1.




Yeah couple bucks on USA is not a bad idea at all - tremendous value plus get to root for our guys
MrWarmth
MrWarmth
Joined: Apr 11, 2014
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:29:37 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I'm going to be betting this when I go to Vegas next week, so I'd like some opinions.

I'm betting against the host country and Argentina. So what provides the best value out of the other countries?

My first three thoughts are (in no particular order)

Germany
Belgium
Colombia

Please talk me into or off of these choices.



Feel free to bet how you want, but in general, European teams don't win World Cups off their own continent ... it's only happened once, but that time was Spain in 2010. Also, no team from other than Europe or South America has ever won.

IMHO, the winner will either be Brazil or Argentina.

If you're looking for value ... at least in the same way as we bet major league sports here ... I might re-think that. Surprises can and do make it out of the group but a trip past the quarters is rare-in-the-extreme, with South Korea 02 as host reaching the semis.

But that being said, the best "value" is probably a non-Brazil or Argentina South American team (Uruguay, Colombia), followed by maybe Netherlands, Italy, or Germany .. although Germany would not, I think, be a "value" as they're perennial semi-finalists, and one or two good bounces can easily see them win.

Belgium = no, as they lost Benteke. Euro 16 should be interesting for them, though.
1arrowheaddr
1arrowheaddr
Joined: Jun 20, 2012
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May 7th, 2014 at 9:34:20 AM permalink
Brazil is -400 to win Group A.

MGM opened USA 17/1 to win Group G. There was some value there.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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May 7th, 2014 at 10:14:04 AM permalink
Okay, I'll throw a few bucks on Colombia.

They seem a lock to win their group which I like.
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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May 7th, 2014 at 10:22:56 AM permalink
Belgium are perennial hopes at the World Cup, but never deliver. Every few years we hear about some resurgence in Belgian football hopes and every time it's a damp squib.

I would probably take Brazil at 3-1... home advantage coupled with having the players who play as a team. USA 125-1 is only worth a shot if you can get them to reach the semi's... I'd say anyone over the 25-1 mark is not going to take it home (and I include the England side, they just aren't that good at all).
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

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