slackyhacky
slackyhacky
Joined: Jan 18, 2012
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April 24th, 2014 at 4:56:28 PM permalink
I'm really new to betting on hoops (and any sport betting).


Was in Vegas in March, betting on the tournament.

The guy at the counter thought I meant to parlay my over under and spread bets.

He had to explain this new concept to me. I thought it was so cool so all my bets became parlay bets.

Holy crap. Why didn't anyone tell me that parlay bets is a great way to never ever ever win anything ever again!?

It was a tough weekend for betting.
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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April 24th, 2014 at 5:14:38 PM permalink
Awesome. With some work & maybe some math you can mark parlaying work for you. The wizard is writing a lot about this recently.

For instance: http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-parlay/
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
LarryS
LarryS
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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April 24th, 2014 at 8:22:00 PM permalink
Quote: dwheatley

Awesome. With some work & maybe some math you can mark parlaying work for you. The wizard is writing a lot about this recently.

For instance: http://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl-parlay/



Parlays are simply a let it ride bet.

Instead of 2 seperate bets you combine them so that both have to win.

So for different games you are saying....take all my winnings and original bet from game A.....and put it all on game B. For the same game its the same type deal.

If the games are in different times of the day you can physically do that yourself. Or if they are going on at the same time then you are figuratively giving the casino the authority to do that for you.

Just be careful parlaying games days apart. It may not be a good value by the time the game starts.

it does allow you to bet less in order to win the same you would bet from 2 seperate bets. But your risk is higher.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 24th, 2014 at 8:42:33 PM permalink
The only time I really parlay is if I really like a couple of favorites. I don't want to bet $50 on a -150 to win $33, but if I parlay it with another -150 I like, then my payout makes it worth it.
LarryS
LarryS
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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April 24th, 2014 at 10:42:36 PM permalink
unlike the OP..i stay away from side /total of the same game parlay.....especially if the total is under. You could have your bet killed halfway thru the game.

Like in hckey you bet Pitt to win with the under 5.5.......halfway thru the 2nd period pitt is behind3-2......IF pitt cmes back to win, the over occurs, if the under occurs it means pitt didnt win. You are dead.
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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April 24th, 2014 at 10:55:47 PM permalink
But what if you think the two events are related. The Bulls are more likely to win if it's low scoring, the Wizards with a higher scoring game?
LarryS
LarryS
Joined: Feb 26, 2011
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April 25th, 2014 at 10:39:59 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

But what if you think the two events are related. The Bulls are more likely to win if it's low scoring, the Wizards with a higher scoring game?



Like you I bet moneyline when I am betting a fave and a 2 teamer is just right for me

Well first I decide if the man has a realistic line. In Footbal, if a team is favored by 3 and I think they should be favored by6...i will put that ml bet in a patrlay. If in BB a team is favored by 5 but I think its more of a 2-3 point advantage...i will skip that game because its more like a coin flip.

So once I figured on a team to bet, in my mind they have the better talent to win outright. And a better team will find a way to win in a game....going over or under.
Inferior teams find a way to lose.

Imagine a bettor who picked the sharks to win the first 3 games of the playoffs parlayed with the under since past experience shows goals are not scored between these 2 teams. They lost all 3 parlay tickets.

For me..picking over/under is a coin flip.I cant find value. I cant predict in basketball if there are high scoring quarters with one quarter where each team scores under 10....ruining the over. I cannot predict in the NFL if there are going to be 2 long 8 min drives up to the goal line where there is a fumble each time and no points are scored...but the rest of the game reasonable expected scoring occured.....but still 2 drives ruined my over....when all I needed was 3 extra points. My team is good enough and win and overcome thwarted drives.....but the over/under is too much of a guess for me. A better team can recover from a bad bounce of a ball.....but the over/under may not be able to recover.

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