Odds of Jeter being helath on 9/14?
Poll
 | 1 vote (14.28%) | ||
| | 6 votes (85.71%) | ||
| No votes (0%) |
7 members have voted
Let's look at any example. The NYY always sell well on the road, especially in towns close to NYC. The Orioles are also a division rival. This bet is predicated on the belief that Jeter will be healthy on 9/14, then the tickets are worth more than they are currently available for on the O's website. However, that is not the only way to make money. Even without Jeter, gains are possible (or losses capped) if the game has pennant implications.
Let's take an upper deck example. Tickets cost $58.50 per pair with fees and taxes. I don't foresee a probable situation in which they would be worth less than $40/pair, so losses are effectively capped at $18.50/pair. Maximum upside, pennant implications and healthy Jeter's last game in Baltimore, I think they are $110/pair. I'd be laying 2.78:1 on that bet, but it's not the only out.
In my opinion:
No enhancement of value, 45%, $40/pair, loss of $18.50/pair, EV=-8.33
Pennant implications, 30%, $75/pair, gain of $16.50/pair, EV=4.95
Jeter healthy and playing, 15% $90/pair, gain of $31.50/pair, EV=4.73
Jeter healthy & pennant implications, 10%, $110/pair, gain of $51.50/pair, EV=5.15
EV = $6.5/pair.
E(R) = 11.11%
Any thoughts?
Then again, I would have thought that the odds of posting a new thread with a type-o would have been rather low!
Quote: BozI think you are also betting on the O's staying a competitive team because as you know it is hard to give away tickets to Camden Yards when they are not playing well. Even with the Yanks in town, I see there being slightly more of a risk than you list. JMO
I guess it all comes down to your assessment of the O's. I'm a die hard Oriolse supporter and my wife and I will be taking a trip to Baltimore on the 10th to watch the set starting on the 1th with the NYY.
Here is my honest assessment of the team.
They may not make it to the playoffs but they will again have a winning season. Davis is close to resigning and I don't care that we lost Jimmy Johnson even though he had one stellar and one solid season. Wieters is back, so is Hardy, Markakis, Jones and of course the phenom, Mannty Machado! They are a little light in the DH but they are Duquette is aggressively searching for a DH that isn't too expensive or too long in the tooth.....good luck with that.
This year again, the pitching will be a problem unless Tillman gets better from last years solid season, Chen comes out firing, Bud Norris holds it together and we could perhaps sign one or two more starting pitchers. Dylan Bundy is interesting and I will be keen to see what impact he makes at spring training.
They are not a championship material ball club and they play in the toughest league in town but they are fighters and in Buck they have a first rate manager.
Here is an article about ticket prices sky rocketing after the Jeter announcement
http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/10445789/boston-red-sox-enjoy-soaring-prices-following-derek-jeter-retirement-announcement
I would assume that this article is what spurred the OP into action. Since Boston is out of the question you have to go with either Tampa, Toronto or Baltimore......No contest there!
Today, several tickets on the third base line were sold on stub hub for around $110, but similar seats are available on the O's site tonight for about $85, so it's basically break even at the moment.
Effectively, I see these tickets as a strangle... Long put, long call at different strikes.
Quote: deedubbsIt's the same logic, but I actually bought a few tickets as soon as the news it. The question is should I take a larger stake. Even if Jeter stays healthy by taking a few days off, the exact schedule is unlikely to be released more than a few days in advance and not all of the buying public will consider the line-up change, imo.
Today, several tickets on the third base line were sold on stub hub for around $110, but similar seats are available on the O's site tonight for about $85, so it's basically break even at the moment.
Effectively, I see these tickets as a strangle... Long put, long call at different strikes.
I think it is a definite buy right now even if Jeter doesn't play. I would imagine those tickets are worth at least 10 to 15% more than what they are listed for if you sell them just before or day of the game. That combined with the fact that it is a Sunday (probably afternoon) game, will make me believe those tix will only appreciate in value.
So I think it's very much +EV.
Quote: BozI think you are also betting on the O's staying a competitive team because as you know it is hard to give away tickets to Camden Yards when they are not playing well. Even with the Yanks in town, I see there being slightly more of a risk than you list. JMO
Normally, I would agree, but I'll make the classic idiot's fallacy "this time it is different!"
Quote: AxelWolfWho is this Jeter guy ;) I hope Larry can tell me. I don't bet, play or watch baseball.
The long time shortstop for the New York Yankee's. And probably the best shortstop the Yankee's have ever had. But I think I have some bad news for the OP. When I woke up an hour ago I think I heard the TV news say Jeter announced his retirement.
Quote: mickeycrimmThe long time shortstop for the New York Yankee's. And probably the best shortstop the Yankee's have ever had. But I think I have some bad news for the OP. When I woke up an hour ago I think I heard the TV news say Jeter announced his retirement.
I just googled it. The OP is in luck. Jeter is going to retire after the next season.
Quote: AxelWolfWho is this Jeter guy ;) I hope Larry can tell me. I don't bet, play or watch baseball.
Baseball? What's that? I only bet on hurling and crokinole.
Quote: mickeycrimmThe long time shortstop for the New York Yankee's. And probably the best shortstop the Yankee's have ever had. But I think I have some bad news for the OP. When I woke up an hour ago I think I heard the TV news say Jeter announced his retirement.
Mickey
thanks for educating axelwolf about jeter without patting yourself on the back...or trying to belittle him.
He has his own issues
and as you know we cant assume what is important to us, or evident to us, is important and evident to everyone in the world.
Tomorrow I will drive to my home in sparks and live the good life.......while others sit home in a robe and hold themselves in front of the computer and try to feel superior with their star trek knowledge, while mommy serves them a sandwich with the crust cut off.
tell mom "hi" from me axel and axiom
Quote: LarrySTomorrow I will drive to my home in sparks and live the good life.......while others sit home in a robe and hold themselves in front of the computer and try to feel superior with their star trek knowledge, while mommy serves them a sandwich with the crust cut off.
tell mom "hi" from me axel and axiom
I would guess that I make more money in a few months than you make in a year. Especially if you deduct your poker and sports betting losses from your income.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI would guess that I make more money in a few months than you make in a year. Especially if you deduct your poker and sports betting losses from your income.
I agree...and its great that you are getting the paper to the top step, the last few weeks.
good boy
Quote: LarrySI agree...and its great that you are getting the paper to the top step, the last few weeks.
good boy
Really? Even the paper boy makes that much more than you after you count your losses? Your sports betting losses must be worse than I thought.
You should really look into this Mayweather guy... maybe you'll win a few bets.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceReally? Even the paper boy makes that much more than you after you count your losses? Your sports betting losses must be worse than I thought.
You should really look into this Mayweather guy... maybe you'll win a few bets.
grown men know .....financial success has little to do with what you make NOW....TODAY......its what you have been able to accumulate over time through wages and investment.
so you can take your great salary today and crow about it......but
Just take some advice.....tighten that robe when momma comes by with your sandwich......and wash your hands before eating
there will be an extra dollar in the envelope this week.
its nice to be able to mentor you
so green/ so naive
refreshing
Quote: LarrySgrown men know .....financial success has little to do with what you make NOW....TODAY......its what you have been able to accumulate over time through wages and investment.
so you can take your great salary today and crow about it......but
Thanks for the financial advice. I know this well. I am smart enough to save more than I spend, and keep a good chunk in tax-advantaged investments. I have to give you credit, though: this might be the first true thing that you've said on this forum. You actually have some good advice if you stay away from gambling stuff.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThanks for the financial advice. I know this well. I am smart enough to save more than I spend, and keep a good chunk in tax-advantaged investments. I have to give you credit, though: this might be the first true thing that you've said on this forum. You actually have some good advice if you stay away from gambling stuff.
its good that you admit that your childish pissing contest you tried to enter regarding your proclamation that you make more than me is just that..childish and meaningless.
And a doctorate in pharmacy has indeed put me in a better financial position than if I had devoted equal time to gambling...you are correct there as well.
you will learn more when you leave home.
you have time
good boy
Quote: LarrySits good that you admit that your childish pissing contest you tried to enter regarding your proclamation that you make more than me is just that..childish and meaningless.
You were the one who was bragging about your home in Sparks for some reason (I've been to Sparks, and the last thing that I'd want is a home there) as if it was a sign of some level of success that you seem to think that I haven't achieved. I'm not sure why you think this, but I'm not sure why you think a lot of the ridiculous things that you think.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceBaseball? What's that? I only bet on hurling and crokinole.
Back the team from Saskatchewan.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceYou were the one who was bragging about your home in Sparks for some reason (I've been to Sparks, and the last thing that I'd want is a home there) as if it was a sign of some level of success that you seem to think that I haven't achieved. I'm not sure why you think this, but I'm not sure why you think a lot of the ridiculous things that you think.
your anxiety will go away when you achieve some success in life,
meanwhile you will just have to just think about finding a way to leave home and a least get a mid level job
and rather than drive 500 miles to vegas, it is definately more cost effective to buy a home in sparks....a very nice bedroom community.
and if one can afford to buy a second home and not be dependent on hotels and casino comps.....then thats the better way to go.
And if one can rent it out during 3 weeks a year, so that it pays for 70 percent of the yearly mortgage payment.....even better
But dont worry your little head about me.
you seem to have a bug up your ass about my sports betting ability, even though my picks on this board have been 70 percent over the last 6 months that I have been posting. If you need better results I suggest you skip over my picks or observations. And I have attained that 70percent without having the ability to recall a boxers name. Imagine that. I bet 100k a year on sports with moderate winning results....and cannot name a current boxer off the top of my head.
your education far exceeds your intelligence in many respects
even if your education is just grade school
just sayin.
Quote: thecesspitQuote: AxiomOfChoiceBaseball? What's that? I only bet on hurling and crokinole.
Back the team from Saskatchewan.
shhhh!!! You're going to move the line...
Quote: LarrySand if one can afford to buy a second home and not be dependent on hotels and casino comps.....then thats the better way to go.
The main problem with a home in Sparks is that you have to go to Sparks to use it. I'd much rather stay at a nice hotel in a fun city than in a crappy dump in a boring town for my vacations, but I guess everyone has different tastes.
Enjoy it, though. Maybe you can meet up with TournamentKing and argue whether your hovel is a better status symbol than his car. Maybe he can teach you how to gamble, too. I hear that he is a top-notch slot machine AP.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThe main problem with a home in Sparks is that you have to go to Sparks to use it. I'd much rather stay at a nice hotel in a fun city than in a crappy dump in a boring town for my vacations, but I guess everyone has different tastes.
Enjoy it, though. Maybe you can meet up with TournamentKing and argue whether your hovel is a better status symbol than his car. Maybe he can teach you how to gamble, too. I hear that he is a top-notch slot machine AP.
I still go to vegas each year. But if i want to gamble legally...I need nevada. I go to my other home 50 weekends a year....its not 'vacation". My opther 2 weeks are vacation.
So dont feel sorry for me, where you have to proclaim I am less of a man for not knowing boxing,
How stupid I must be, how unsuccessful I must be to live in a countryclub in nothern Ca, have a home in nevada, send 2 kids through school for 250k, and still be able to go where I want and do what I do......all without knowing about boxing.
I am even able to give 70 percent correct picks in the small sample size here...all without knowing boxing.
you would childishly look down on Bill Gates if he couldnt name a current NHL hockey player I bet. Poor Bill Gates.
Your measure of success is the measure that a child with no life experice would have.
Your measure of success is some arbitrary knowledge of sports trivia regarding a second tier sport.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10354114/harris-poll-nfl-most-popular-mlb-2nd
Quote: LarrySSo dont feel sorry for me, where you have to proclaim I am less of a man for not knowing boxing,
That's not why I think you're less of a man
rather than hiding behind knowledge of boxing being your gauge for success.
come on smart boy.
tell us all why you hide behind boxing knowledge as a critique against me.....as was posted earlier in this thread.
why cant you effectively communicate instead of hiding behind boxing.
come on little guy.
pretend you are a man
pretend you have some balls
at least for one night....get mamas help ...and post something cogent.
being a liar in saying I never heard of mayweather doesnt work......come up with something more weighty....something more significant.....something based on fact....yes fact.
not based on your slimey assertions or childish assumptions
come on little guy
something....
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThat's not why I think you're less of a man
+462.3
Quote: LarrySwell then be a man and say it
I'm pretty sure I just did...
u didnt say why
i reall think you are a 12 year old flaming
you are painted into a corner.....and still avoid the answer
go ahead.....u made a statement....tell us more
back it up
just pack up your school books and go home..
I have pummelled you enough
your education does indeed exceed your intelligence
and I would expect the guy with a stroke and early alzheimers would help walk you home
