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deedubbs
deedubbs
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February 12th, 2014 at 7:14:29 PM permalink
Over the past decade, I have done quite well by scalping tickets. Most notably when ticketreserve had a VERY inefficient futures market in 2001-2003. I am currently intrigued by the Baltimore Orioles vs NYY on 9/14 and may buy a fairly large block of tickets.

Let's look at any example. The NYY always sell well on the road, especially in towns close to NYC. The Orioles are also a division rival. This bet is predicated on the belief that Jeter will be healthy on 9/14, then the tickets are worth more than they are currently available for on the O's website. However, that is not the only way to make money. Even without Jeter, gains are possible (or losses capped) if the game has pennant implications.

Let's take an upper deck example. Tickets cost $58.50 per pair with fees and taxes. I don't foresee a probable situation in which they would be worth less than $40/pair, so losses are effectively capped at $18.50/pair. Maximum upside, pennant implications and healthy Jeter's last game in Baltimore, I think they are $110/pair. I'd be laying 2.78:1 on that bet, but it's not the only out.

In my opinion:

No enhancement of value, 45%, $40/pair, loss of $18.50/pair, EV=-8.33
Pennant implications, 30%, $75/pair, gain of $16.50/pair, EV=4.95
Jeter healthy and playing, 15% $90/pair, gain of $31.50/pair, EV=4.73
Jeter healthy & pennant implications, 10%, $110/pair, gain of $51.50/pair, EV=5.15

EV = $6.5/pair.
E(R) = 11.11%

Any thoughts?
beachbumbabs
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February 12th, 2014 at 7:17:10 PM permalink
I would say they're unlikely to be worth less than face value, and very likely to be worth more, assuming you know where to place them without getting hit with a scalping charge, and can get seats that are decent. Go for it, as many as you can afford.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
deedubbs
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February 12th, 2014 at 7:22:12 PM permalink
It's largely been my experience that the nosebleed seats have higher margins that the better seats. Of course, I am not privy to getting some of the best possible seats, so that may not be true across all possible seats.

Then again, I would have thought that the odds of posting a new thread with a type-o would have been rather low!
Boz
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February 12th, 2014 at 7:34:53 PM permalink
I think you are also betting on the O's staying a competitive team because as you know it is hard to give away tickets to Camden Yards when they are not playing well. Even with the Yanks in town, I see there being slightly more of a risk than you list. JMO
Tomspur
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February 12th, 2014 at 8:10:09 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

I think you are also betting on the O's staying a competitive team because as you know it is hard to give away tickets to Camden Yards when they are not playing well. Even with the Yanks in town, I see there being slightly more of a risk than you list. JMO



I guess it all comes down to your assessment of the O's. I'm a die hard Oriolse supporter and my wife and I will be taking a trip to Baltimore on the 10th to watch the set starting on the 1th with the NYY.

Here is my honest assessment of the team.

They may not make it to the playoffs but they will again have a winning season. Davis is close to resigning and I don't care that we lost Jimmy Johnson even though he had one stellar and one solid season. Wieters is back, so is Hardy, Markakis, Jones and of course the phenom, Mannty Machado! They are a little light in the DH but they are Duquette is aggressively searching for a DH that isn't too expensive or too long in the tooth.....good luck with that.
This year again, the pitching will be a problem unless Tillman gets better from last years solid season, Chen comes out firing, Bud Norris holds it together and we could perhaps sign one or two more starting pitchers. Dylan Bundy is interesting and I will be keen to see what impact he makes at spring training.

They are not a championship material ball club and they play in the toughest league in town but they are fighters and in Buck they have a first rate manager.

Here is an article about ticket prices sky rocketing after the Jeter announcement

http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/10445789/boston-red-sox-enjoy-soaring-prices-following-derek-jeter-retirement-announcement

I would assume that this article is what spurred the OP into action. Since Boston is out of the question you have to go with either Tampa, Toronto or Baltimore......No contest there!
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
deedubbs
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February 12th, 2014 at 8:51:13 PM permalink
It's the same logic, but I actually bought a few tickets as soon as the news it. The question is should I take a larger stake. Even if Jeter stays healthy by taking a few days off, the exact schedule is unlikely to be released more than a few days in advance and not all of the buying public will consider the line-up change, imo.

Today, several tickets on the third base line were sold on stub hub for around $110, but similar seats are available on the O's site tonight for about $85, so it's basically break even at the moment.

Effectively, I see these tickets as a strangle... Long put, long call at different strikes.
Tomspur
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February 12th, 2014 at 8:55:25 PM permalink
Quote: deedubbs

It's the same logic, but I actually bought a few tickets as soon as the news it. The question is should I take a larger stake. Even if Jeter stays healthy by taking a few days off, the exact schedule is unlikely to be released more than a few days in advance and not all of the buying public will consider the line-up change, imo.

Today, several tickets on the third base line were sold on stub hub for around $110, but similar seats are available on the O's site tonight for about $85, so it's basically break even at the moment.

Effectively, I see these tickets as a strangle... Long put, long call at different strikes.



I think it is a definite buy right now even if Jeter doesn't play. I would imagine those tickets are worth at least 10 to 15% more than what they are listed for if you sell them just before or day of the game. That combined with the fact that it is a Sunday (probably afternoon) game, will make me believe those tix will only appreciate in value.
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
boymimbo
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February 12th, 2014 at 9:11:14 PM permalink
I think Boston will run away with it this season, with Tampa fighting it out for a wildcard with a couple of teams in the other divisions. I think Baltimore will not be competing. I think Jeter will play even if he's injured as it will be the last home games of the season. I think the Yankees will finish 4th in the division. Sadly I think my Jays will have a lousy season and boot Anthopolous / Gibbons out to the curb mid-season.

So I think it's very much +EV.
----- You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
deedubbs
deedubbs
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February 12th, 2014 at 10:59:53 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

I think you are also betting on the O's staying a competitive team because as you know it is hard to give away tickets to Camden Yards when they are not playing well. Even with the Yanks in town, I see there being slightly more of a risk than you list. JMO



Normally, I would agree, but I'll make the classic idiot's fallacy "this time it is different!"
AxelWolf
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February 13th, 2014 at 12:25:39 AM permalink
Who is this Jeter guy ;) I hope Larry can tell me. I don't bet, play or watch baseball.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
mickeycrimm
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February 13th, 2014 at 3:58:20 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Who is this Jeter guy ;) I hope Larry can tell me. I don't bet, play or watch baseball.



The long time shortstop for the New York Yankee's. And probably the best shortstop the Yankee's have ever had. But I think I have some bad news for the OP. When I woke up an hour ago I think I heard the TV news say Jeter announced his retirement.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
mickeycrimm
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February 13th, 2014 at 4:00:44 AM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

The long time shortstop for the New York Yankee's. And probably the best shortstop the Yankee's have ever had. But I think I have some bad news for the OP. When I woke up an hour ago I think I heard the TV news say Jeter announced his retirement.



I just googled it. The OP is in luck. Jeter is going to retire after the next season.
"Quit trying your luck and start trying your skill." Mickey Crimm
AxiomOfChoice
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February 13th, 2014 at 10:51:23 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Who is this Jeter guy ;) I hope Larry can tell me. I don't bet, play or watch baseball.



Baseball? What's that? I only bet on hurling and crokinole.
LarryS
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February 13th, 2014 at 6:23:06 PM permalink
Quote: mickeycrimm

The long time shortstop for the New York Yankee's. And probably the best shortstop the Yankee's have ever had. But I think I have some bad news for the OP. When I woke up an hour ago I think I heard the TV news say Jeter announced his retirement.



Mickey

thanks for educating axelwolf about jeter without patting yourself on the back...or trying to belittle him.

He has his own issues

and as you know we cant assume what is important to us, or evident to us, is important and evident to everyone in the world.


Tomorrow I will drive to my home in sparks and live the good life.......while others sit home in a robe and hold themselves in front of the computer and try to feel superior with their star trek knowledge, while mommy serves them a sandwich with the crust cut off.

tell mom "hi" from me axel and axiom
AxiomOfChoice
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February 13th, 2014 at 6:25:39 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

Tomorrow I will drive to my home in sparks and live the good life.......while others sit home in a robe and hold themselves in front of the computer and try to feel superior with their star trek knowledge, while mommy serves them a sandwich with the crust cut off.

tell mom "hi" from me axel and axiom



I would guess that I make more money in a few months than you make in a year. Especially if you deduct your poker and sports betting losses from your income.
LarryS
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February 13th, 2014 at 6:33:02 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

I would guess that I make more money in a few months than you make in a year. Especially if you deduct your poker and sports betting losses from your income.


I agree...and its great that you are getting the paper to the top step, the last few weeks.

good boy
AxiomOfChoice
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February 13th, 2014 at 6:39:58 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

I agree...and its great that you are getting the paper to the top step, the last few weeks.

good boy



Really? Even the paper boy makes that much more than you after you count your losses? Your sports betting losses must be worse than I thought.

You should really look into this Mayweather guy... maybe you'll win a few bets.
LarryS
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February 13th, 2014 at 6:46:46 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Really? Even the paper boy makes that much more than you after you count your losses? Your sports betting losses must be worse than I thought.

You should really look into this Mayweather guy... maybe you'll win a few bets.



grown men know .....financial success has little to do with what you make NOW....TODAY......its what you have been able to accumulate over time through wages and investment.

so you can take your great salary today and crow about it......but

Just take some advice.....tighten that robe when momma comes by with your sandwich......and wash your hands before eating

there will be an extra dollar in the envelope this week.

its nice to be able to mentor you

so green/ so naive

refreshing
AxiomOfChoice
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February 13th, 2014 at 6:56:48 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

grown men know .....financial success has little to do with what you make NOW....TODAY......its what you have been able to accumulate over time through wages and investment.

so you can take your great salary today and crow about it......but



Thanks for the financial advice. I know this well. I am smart enough to save more than I spend, and keep a good chunk in tax-advantaged investments. I have to give you credit, though: this might be the first true thing that you've said on this forum. You actually have some good advice if you stay away from gambling stuff.
LarryS
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February 13th, 2014 at 7:19:03 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Thanks for the financial advice. I know this well. I am smart enough to save more than I spend, and keep a good chunk in tax-advantaged investments. I have to give you credit, though: this might be the first true thing that you've said on this forum. You actually have some good advice if you stay away from gambling stuff.



its good that you admit that your childish pissing contest you tried to enter regarding your proclamation that you make more than me is just that..childish and meaningless.

And a doctorate in pharmacy has indeed put me in a better financial position than if I had devoted equal time to gambling...you are correct there as well.

you will learn more when you leave home.

you have time

good boy
AxiomOfChoice
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February 13th, 2014 at 7:30:56 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

its good that you admit that your childish pissing contest you tried to enter regarding your proclamation that you make more than me is just that..childish and meaningless.



You were the one who was bragging about your home in Sparks for some reason (I've been to Sparks, and the last thing that I'd want is a home there) as if it was a sign of some level of success that you seem to think that I haven't achieved. I'm not sure why you think this, but I'm not sure why you think a lot of the ridiculous things that you think.
thecesspit
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February 13th, 2014 at 8:26:52 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Baseball? What's that? I only bet on hurling and crokinole.



Back the team from Saskatchewan.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
LarryS
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February 13th, 2014 at 8:28:21 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

You were the one who was bragging about your home in Sparks for some reason (I've been to Sparks, and the last thing that I'd want is a home there) as if it was a sign of some level of success that you seem to think that I haven't achieved. I'm not sure why you think this, but I'm not sure why you think a lot of the ridiculous things that you think.



your anxiety will go away when you achieve some success in life,

meanwhile you will just have to just think about finding a way to leave home and a least get a mid level job

and rather than drive 500 miles to vegas, it is definately more cost effective to buy a home in sparks....a very nice bedroom community.

and if one can afford to buy a second home and not be dependent on hotels and casino comps.....then thats the better way to go.

And if one can rent it out during 3 weeks a year, so that it pays for 70 percent of the yearly mortgage payment.....even better

But dont worry your little head about me.

you seem to have a bug up your ass about my sports betting ability, even though my picks on this board have been 70 percent over the last 6 months that I have been posting. If you need better results I suggest you skip over my picks or observations. And I have attained that 70percent without having the ability to recall a boxers name. Imagine that. I bet 100k a year on sports with moderate winning results....and cannot name a current boxer off the top of my head.

your education far exceeds your intelligence in many respects

even if your education is just grade school

just sayin.
AxiomOfChoice
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February 13th, 2014 at 8:34:06 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Baseball? What's that? I only bet on hurling and crokinole.



Back the team from Saskatchewan.



shhhh!!! You're going to move the line...
AxiomOfChoice
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February 13th, 2014 at 8:42:21 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

and if one can afford to buy a second home and not be dependent on hotels and casino comps.....then thats the better way to go.



The main problem with a home in Sparks is that you have to go to Sparks to use it. I'd much rather stay at a nice hotel in a fun city than in a crappy dump in a boring town for my vacations, but I guess everyone has different tastes.

Enjoy it, though. Maybe you can meet up with TournamentKing and argue whether your hovel is a better status symbol than his car. Maybe he can teach you how to gamble, too. I hear that he is a top-notch slot machine AP.
LarryS
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February 13th, 2014 at 9:00:23 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

The main problem with a home in Sparks is that you have to go to Sparks to use it. I'd much rather stay at a nice hotel in a fun city than in a crappy dump in a boring town for my vacations, but I guess everyone has different tastes.

Enjoy it, though. Maybe you can meet up with TournamentKing and argue whether your hovel is a better status symbol than his car. Maybe he can teach you how to gamble, too. I hear that he is a top-notch slot machine AP.



I still go to vegas each year. But if i want to gamble legally...I need nevada. I go to my other home 50 weekends a year....its not 'vacation". My opther 2 weeks are vacation.

So dont feel sorry for me, where you have to proclaim I am less of a man for not knowing boxing,

How stupid I must be, how unsuccessful I must be to live in a countryclub in nothern Ca, have a home in nevada, send 2 kids through school for 250k, and still be able to go where I want and do what I do......all without knowing about boxing.
I am even able to give 70 percent correct picks in the small sample size here...all without knowing boxing.

you would childishly look down on Bill Gates if he couldnt name a current NHL hockey player I bet. Poor Bill Gates.

Your measure of success is the measure that a child with no life experice would have.

Your measure of success is some arbitrary knowledge of sports trivia regarding a second tier sport.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10354114/harris-poll-nfl-most-popular-mlb-2nd
AxiomOfChoice
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February 13th, 2014 at 9:05:27 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

So dont feel sorry for me, where you have to proclaim I am less of a man for not knowing boxing,



That's not why I think you're less of a man
LarryS
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February 13th, 2014 at 9:20:37 PM permalink
well then be a man and say it rather than acting like a sniveling child hiding under mommies skirt.

rather than hiding behind knowledge of boxing being your gauge for success.

come on smart boy.

tell us all why you hide behind boxing knowledge as a critique against me.....as was posted earlier in this thread.

why cant you effectively communicate instead of hiding behind boxing.

come on little guy.

pretend you are a man

pretend you have some balls

at least for one night....get mamas help ...and post something cogent.

being a liar in saying I never heard of mayweather doesnt work......come up with something more weighty....something more significant.....something based on fact....yes fact.

not based on your slimey assertions or childish assumptions

come on little guy

something....
Buzzard
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February 13th, 2014 at 9:26:02 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

That's not why I think you're less of a man



+462.3
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
AxiomOfChoice
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February 13th, 2014 at 9:27:44 PM permalink
Quote: LarryS

well then be a man and say it



I'm pretty sure I just did...
LarryS
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February 13th, 2014 at 9:38:31 PM permalink
still hiding behind mamas skirt

u didnt say why


i reall think you are a 12 year old flaming


you are painted into a corner.....and still avoid the answer

go ahead.....u made a statement....tell us more

back it up

just pack up your school books and go home..

I have pummelled you enough

your education does indeed exceed your intelligence

and I would expect the guy with a stroke and early alzheimers would help walk you home
Ibeatyouraces
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February 13th, 2014 at 9:50:17 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
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