What's a good win percentage for a system?
Now, that sounds like a fairly high win rate to me. However, a lot of the time that it worked, the Vegas guys picked the same team as the favorite. Given that and the vig, is there any way to know if this would be financially profitable without having to check the lines every day and calculate a hypothetical ending bankroll? That is to say, is there a general rule of thumb such as "if you can predict ___% correct, you can turn a profit regardless of the odds given"?
Sounds interesting how many games were picked? I doubt if its picking the fav's 65% would be enough unless you were getting the right price.Quote: DrMehI made a statistical program using some interesting variables for baseball and last season had a 65% win rate. I didn't place any bets with it as I wanted to prove what it can do before putting money down.
Now, that sounds like a fairly high win rate to me. However, a lot of the time that it worked, the Vegas guys picked the same team as the favorite. Given that and the vig, is there any way to know if this would be financially profitable without having to check the lines every day and calculate a hypothetical ending bankroll? That is to say, is there a general rule of thumb such as "if you can predict ___% correct, you can turn a profit regardless of the odds given"?
if its -200 then u have to get 66 percent to break even
Quote: AxelWolfSounds interesting how many games were picked? I doubt if its picking the fav's 65% would be enough unless you were getting the right price.
That was the success rate for every game played during the regular season last year.
Quote: LarrySfigure out what the average payout is -200, -187, -163???
if its -200 then u have to get 66 percent to break even
Perfect, thanks! I'll have to crunch the numbers but off the top of my head, I would estimate it would be between -120 and -140.
