Is sports betting a winning proposition?
January 26th, 2014 at 10:03:39 PM
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Since the Wizard started a tread on prop bet for the Superbowl, I wanted to know if one thought that betting on sport is a positive advantage wager.
Lets say that a person was to bet on only one football game per week, "sure lock" would he make money after a single season?
How about betting on other sports?
Lets say that a person was to bet on only one football game per week, "sure lock" would he make money after a single season?
How about betting on other sports?
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
January 26th, 2014 at 10:19:20 PM
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Quote: AceCrAAckersSince the Wizard started a tread on prop bet for the Superbowl, I wanted to know if one thought that betting on sport is a positive advantage wager.
Lets say that a person was to bet on only one football game per week, "sure lock" would he make money after a single season?
How about betting on other sports?
What percentage does he hit his 'lock'?
With just 17 bets, the variance will be large, unless the 'lock' percentage win is large. Obviously if it's 100%, then you will always win in the season.
But even if your lock is 60%, each bet is a positive advantage, but you may still end up losing on the year.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
January 26th, 2014 at 10:43:57 PM
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There is no such thing as a "lock" but a bet your feel really positive about. I was sure that ND will lose in the BCS game two years ago even with the spread. I thought FSU will beat the spread against Auburn. i am 50/50 on my lock. Go figure.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
January 26th, 2014 at 10:46:24 PM
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Doesn't everybody feel "really positive" about their bets?
Fighting BS one post at a time!
January 26th, 2014 at 10:54:13 PM
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Quote: Beethoven9thDoesn't everybody feel "really positive" about their bets?
No. I have no idea who to bet on the Superbowl. Don't know about the over/under either. When I bet on craps, I know the house has the edge but I hope to get lucky.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
January 26th, 2014 at 10:57:43 PM
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Quote: AceCrAAckersNo. I have no idea who to bet on the Superbowl. Don't know about the over/under either.
Me too, that's why I'm not betting on the Super Bowl. But when I do make a bet, I always feel positive about it. Same with every guy I know. Too bad my record isn't positive. lol
Fighting BS one post at a time!
January 26th, 2014 at 11:17:27 PM
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Quote: Beethoven9thDoesn't everybody feel "really positive" about their bets?
Not really. I will often bet money line underdogs realizing that I'll probably lose, but I think I'm getting a good price.
January 27th, 2014 at 12:12:08 AM
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Quote: AxiomOfChoiceNot really. I will often bet money line underdogs realizing that I'll probably lose, but I think I'm getting a good price.
I think you have hit the nail on the head here. It is not so much the team you bet but the price you get. If you feel the price you are on is value then you have had a bet that makes sense to you. If you are taking under the odds because you like the team, then you should perhaps stick to playing roulette with bob :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
January 27th, 2014 at 12:26:23 AM
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Just out of curiosity, what's your record on those bets?Quote: AxiomOfChoiceNot really. I will often bet money line underdogs realizing that I'll probably lose, but I think I'm getting a good price.
I guess my main point to the OP was that feeling "really positive" about a bet doesn't necessarily make it more likely to win.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
January 27th, 2014 at 4:32:26 AM
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As long as they are JuicieJennie's nails... ;-)Quote: TomspurI think you have hit the nail on the head here.:)
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
January 27th, 2014 at 4:36:59 AM
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This is the wide domain called "subjective probabilities". Bayesians don't think there exist such things as "likeliness to win": it is all in the eye of the beholder (aka the better). Feeling positive is measured as a subjective probab. If it is higher than the odds, then the bet is positive for you, although it may not be for someone else.Quote: Beethoven9thI guess my main point to the OP was that feeling "really positive" about a bet doesn't necessarily make it more likely to win.
Damn! That relativity, again!
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
January 27th, 2014 at 4:48:12 AM
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I get the impression the Wizard sports betting is exactly what Michael considers +EV, and even had a lot to do with him moving to Vegas.
In fact that's what bums me about sports betting. I don't live in Vegas and don't want to do internet gambling.
In fact that's what bums me about sports betting. I don't live in Vegas and don't want to do internet gambling.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
January 27th, 2014 at 6:17:58 AM
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Sports betting can be +EV, but it takes great understanding.
The comparison to card counting is apt. There is a built in HE in both games, but skilled play/picking can overcome it. The biggest difference comes in the fact that the HE in BJ is less than 1% (depending on rules). On the other hand the HE in sports betting is generally closer to 5%. However, the big counter weight for sports betting are the number of open betting targets. This means there so many open betting opportunities and potential market inefficiencies to exploit. It is as if you can be sitting at dozens of BJ tables simultaneously, wonging in and out at will.
Pro sports betting is like advantage play in BJ:
1) It's rare
2) It's a hard way to make an easy buck.
The comparison to card counting is apt. There is a built in HE in both games, but skilled play/picking can overcome it. The biggest difference comes in the fact that the HE in BJ is less than 1% (depending on rules). On the other hand the HE in sports betting is generally closer to 5%. However, the big counter weight for sports betting are the number of open betting targets. This means there so many open betting opportunities and potential market inefficiencies to exploit. It is as if you can be sitting at dozens of BJ tables simultaneously, wonging in and out at will.
Pro sports betting is like advantage play in BJ:
1) It's rare
2) It's a hard way to make an easy buck.
January 27th, 2014 at 6:35:04 AM
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There is no such thing as value in sports betting. Value is simply a handicappers perception of the game based on his handicapping methods, hunch, algos.:-)...etc.
Example: The Cowboys are 10-2 against the spread in games where they failed to cover last 3 starts. Some view this a value betting opportunity on the Cowboys. Nope.
Example: The Cowboys are 10-2 against the spread in games where they failed to cover last 3 starts. Some view this a value betting opportunity on the Cowboys. Nope.
Each day is better than the next
February 3rd, 2014 at 4:50:30 PM
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I think it depends entirely on the gambler. There are ways to almost take advantage of casinos (specifically online ones) that offer bonuses and what not, if you play your cards properly it can even be a decent side gig. I've been going through a list of online casinos with new member perks at http://www.bigfreebet.com/free-bets.php I'm thinking about just throwing a few bets down a week, using the bonuses as extra capital and saving the money for a rainy day.
February 3rd, 2014 at 5:35:37 PM
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There is a House edge or vigorish on every bet. Can it be +EV, sure if the bet itself isn't priced correctly. That takes statistical review and evaluation. Just what is important, and what set(s) of data to use is also important. Its rather complex, mathematically. Thats why there's hunches.
Some people need to reimagine their thinking.
February 3rd, 2014 at 6:00:24 PM
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I include myself in this category....but I dont think that most of us here know enough about the individual players/matchups on individual games to be able to pick a winner/cover consistantly.
Do I know all the players on the teams? Nope
Do I know if the dog has at least one advantageous matchup that they can exploit in order to cover. Nope
Do I know if the fave has a particular one on one advantage with the other team...Nope.
All I have is general stats...which says nothing about individual one on one matchups in the upcoming game
I think the real sharp money have access to people who know the answers about individual matchups, individual players....along with tendencies on venue, weather(if outdoors) and even coaching tendencies when going up against certain type players/teams.
I personally look at various published stats. I have no knowledge of all the players on the team in comparison to all the players on the other team.
Of course in baseball i look at individual pitchers......but as you see...in the superbowl...looking at one individual player and falling in love with him is not profitable.
So yes, sports betting can be beat.......but it takes alot more info than the average bettor is willing to dig up.
Do I know all the players on the teams? Nope
Do I know if the dog has at least one advantageous matchup that they can exploit in order to cover. Nope
Do I know if the fave has a particular one on one advantage with the other team...Nope.
All I have is general stats...which says nothing about individual one on one matchups in the upcoming game
I think the real sharp money have access to people who know the answers about individual matchups, individual players....along with tendencies on venue, weather(if outdoors) and even coaching tendencies when going up against certain type players/teams.
I personally look at various published stats. I have no knowledge of all the players on the team in comparison to all the players on the other team.
Of course in baseball i look at individual pitchers......but as you see...in the superbowl...looking at one individual player and falling in love with him is not profitable.
So yes, sports betting can be beat.......but it takes alot more info than the average bettor is willing to dig up.
