AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
Joined: Jul 12, 2011
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 377
January 26th, 2014 at 10:03:39 PM permalink
Since the Wizard started a tread on prop bet for the Superbowl, I wanted to know if one thought that betting on sport is a positive advantage wager.

Lets say that a person was to bet on only one football game per week, "sure lock" would he make money after a single season?
How about betting on other sports?
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
  • Threads: 53
  • Posts: 5936
January 26th, 2014 at 10:19:20 PM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

Since the Wizard started a tread on prop bet for the Superbowl, I wanted to know if one thought that betting on sport is a positive advantage wager.

Lets say that a person was to bet on only one football game per week, "sure lock" would he make money after a single season?
How about betting on other sports?



What percentage does he hit his 'lock'?

With just 17 bets, the variance will be large, unless the 'lock' percentage win is large. Obviously if it's 100%, then you will always win in the season.

But even if your lock is 60%, each bet is a positive advantage, but you may still end up losing on the year.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
Joined: Jul 12, 2011
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 377
January 26th, 2014 at 10:43:57 PM permalink
There is no such thing as a "lock" but a bet your feel really positive about. I was sure that ND will lose in the BCS game two years ago even with the spread. I thought FSU will beat the spread against Auburn. i am 50/50 on my lock. Go figure.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
January 26th, 2014 at 10:46:24 PM permalink
Doesn't everybody feel "really positive" about their bets?
Fighting BS one post at a time!
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
Joined: Jul 12, 2011
  • Threads: 30
  • Posts: 377
January 26th, 2014 at 10:54:13 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Doesn't everybody feel "really positive" about their bets?



No. I have no idea who to bet on the Superbowl. Don't know about the over/under either. When I bet on craps, I know the house has the edge but I hope to get lucky.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
January 26th, 2014 at 10:57:43 PM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

No. I have no idea who to bet on the Superbowl. Don't know about the over/under either.


Me too, that's why I'm not betting on the Super Bowl. But when I do make a bet, I always feel positive about it. Same with every guy I know. Too bad my record isn't positive. lol
Fighting BS one post at a time!
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
Joined: Sep 12, 2012
  • Threads: 32
  • Posts: 5761
January 26th, 2014 at 11:17:27 PM permalink
Quote: Beethoven9th

Doesn't everybody feel "really positive" about their bets?



Not really. I will often bet money line underdogs realizing that I'll probably lose, but I think I'm getting a good price.
Tomspur
Tomspur
Joined: Jul 12, 2013
  • Threads: 28
  • Posts: 2019
January 27th, 2014 at 12:12:08 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Not really. I will often bet money line underdogs realizing that I'll probably lose, but I think I'm getting a good price.



I think you have hit the nail on the head here. It is not so much the team you bet but the price you get. If you feel the price you are on is value then you have had a bet that makes sense to you. If you are taking under the odds because you like the team, then you should perhaps stick to playing roulette with bob :)
“There is something about the outside of a horse that is good for the inside of a man.” - Winston Churchill
Beethoven9th
Beethoven9th
Joined: Jul 30, 2012
  • Threads: 75
  • Posts: 5072
January 27th, 2014 at 12:26:23 AM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Not really. I will often bet money line underdogs realizing that I'll probably lose, but I think I'm getting a good price.

Just out of curiosity, what's your record on those bets?

I guess my main point to the OP was that feeling "really positive" about a bet doesn't necessarily make it more likely to win.
Fighting BS one post at a time!
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
  • Threads: 27
  • Posts: 905
January 27th, 2014 at 4:32:26 AM permalink
Quote: Tomspur

I think you have hit the nail on the head here.:)

As long as they are JuicieJennie's nails... ;-)
Reperiet qui quaesiverit

  • Jump to: