The weeks thoughts

The last time I remember 2 powerful defenses facing each other was the giants/ravens superbowl. The ravens had the better defense but both teams had great defenses. The line was the lowest I ever saw...I am trying to remember...maybe it was 30 or 31.
In the end the RAVENS covered the over by themselves or close to it. It was a blowout. and the over.
Which leads me to stay away from what looks like a gift under in SF/SEATTLE. of 40
It may be a 17-14 game....or one team could score 35.....
The last 2 games in seattle with SF went under, because SF was held to around 10 points for the 2 games combined

I think SF might score more this time.....but I still think Seattle will win. Its really hard for me to come to this conclusion because I live in SF territory.
All the sports commentary here tell how SF should win.

On paper SF is the better team all around...but they still have to prove to me that they can win in seattle. I havent seen any indication of that yet.
When SF played seatle at home 4 weeks ago.....they didnt cover.
They didnt cover the last 2 times up in seattle....so why would I all of a sudden get the SF fever and bet on them

I am nt gonna bet alot....and will enjoy the game. If they win I move on, to the next weeks plays. I am not a fan of any team

I will probably also do a two team teaser with both games going under...with the extra 6 points.

I can forsee Belichick using his patented 6-8 minute drives to keep manning on the sideline, and keep his defense fresh for the 4th qtr...when most visiting defense tend to get winded in the thin air.

Dener has socred less than 30 pts four times this year...and 3 of them were against san diego. And those games were close.
That is the script that I think NE tries to write.

By the way, in reno today seeing alot of seatle -3....most likely because Kaperneick came from reno and SF is the closest NFL team for people to root for in this town

I think seattle covers this....although I will also play moneyline as well in a couple 2 teamers tied to NHL

Go Broncoes!!
Go Seahhawks!!

Northwest Super Bowl!!

I'm not betting because I am too emotionally involved.

Quote: mickeycrimm

Go Broncoes!!
Go Seahhawks!!

Northwest Super Bowl!!

I'm not betting because I am too emotionally involved.

How is Denver in the northwest? lol

I went the other way (as I often do...lol) Money line on both Dogs. SF +175, NE +205. I shopped for those lines by the way. Gotta love Vegas.

Basically I feel SF is the better team. Of course Seattle has the Home field and that is huge. Not sure it's enough.

The game I really like though is NE. If I wasn't betting I would be rooting for Manning to win and go on to win his second superbowl which he so desperately wants. But, you just can't ignore the fact that Manning has a dismal record in big games, both in the pro's and dating back to college. Sometimes you can make excuses that his team was overmatched, but you just can't ignore the fact that he doesn't seem to get it done in the big games, while the folks on the other side, Brady and Belichick are just the opposite. They seem to find a way.

They haven't found a way in 9 years

Quote: Beardgoat

They haven't found a way in 9 years

Are you kidding me? They found ways to win several big games just this year. How about taking the wind instead of the ball in an overtime win against Denver? Most thought this then wrong move, but it proved to be the difference.

How about driving the field with less than a minute left, and throwing a TD pass with 5 seconds remaining to beat another playoff team, New Orleans?

Not to poo poo the analysis but PSO boil down to random unknowable events throughout the game. It is fun to break a game down but in the end.......randomness

Ok call me crazy. New England is good. They're not the team they were a decade ago though. Clearly they're not winning the big games they need to win if they haven't won it all in 9 years.

Quote: kewlj

How is Denver in the northwest? lol

I went the other way (as I often do...lol) Money line on both Dogs. SF +175, NE +205. I shopped for those lines by the way. Gotta love Vegas.

Basically I feel SF is the better team. Of course Seattle has the Home field and that is huge. Not sure it's enough.

The game I really like though is NE. If I wasn't betting I would be rooting for Manning to win and go on to win his second superbowl which he so desperately wants. But, you just can't ignore the fact that Manning has a dismal record in big games, both in the pro's and dating back to college. Sometimes you can make excuses that his team was overmatched, but you just can't ignore the fact that he doesn't seem to get it done in the big games, while the folks on the other side, Brady and Belichick are just the opposite. They seem to find a way.

Montanans are Broncoes and Seahawks fans. I believe stars like Peyton get too much credit when they win and too much credit when they lose. Just like last year, when Peyton puts 30+ points on the board and loses I don't blame him. I blame the defense.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Not to poo poo the analysis but PSO boil down to random unknowable events throughout the game. It is fun to break a game down but in the end.......randomness

You think games are random? If so, book my bets with no spread or money line and I will give you extra vig. I will make a pick either way on every game if you wish. since its random I should be about 50/50 on number of wins and losses, you should come out ahead from making money on the vig.

Quote: mickeycrimm

Montanans are Broncoes and Seahawks fans.

I could argue that Denver is in the southwest USA. Markets that do not have an NFL have a team designated as their home market team and you then will see all of that teams games. Here in Las Vegas, our designated home market team is Denver, even though several teams like Arizona and San Diego are closer.

Quote: AxelWolf

You think games are random? If so, book my bets with no spread or money line and I will give you extra vig. I will make a pick either way on every game if you wish. since its random I should be about 50/50 on number of wins and losses, you should come out ahead from making money on the vig.

Sorry old sport I though my post was fairly clear. Point Spread Outcomes.....PSO's are very random. You missed my qualifier. Picking winners against the spread is essentially a zero sum game. I'll book all your bets against the line. 1000 minimum bet after your qualified as somebody that will pay their debt. Wait I think that would be illegal, can't do that...

I really needed New England for a different contest, but it just didn't happen. Sure, the defense got killed, but their offense was most disappointing to me. Denver's defense wasn't all that great to begin, and they kept having players drop like flies today. I'll just kick back and enjoy the next game, though I am rooting for Seattle.

Quote: kewlj

How is Denver in the northwest? lol

I went the other way (as I often do...lol) Money line on both Dogs. SF +175, NE +205.

Well that didn't work out! :-( Even worse than the $800 bucks I lost is the bs, I am getting from one of my housemates, who is a Seattle fan. But whatever.

Still can't see how this is a Northwest USA superbowl. lol But congrats to you mickeycrimm. Glad someone is happy tonight.

Quote: treetopbuddy

Sorry old sport I though my post was fairly clear. Point Spread Outcomes.....PSO's are very random. You missed my qualifier. Picking winners against the spread is essentially a zero sum game. I'll book all your bets against the line. 1000 minimum bet after your qualified as somebody that will pay their debt. Wait I think that would be illegal, can't do that...

that statement is based on the assumption the "the line" is always accurate. The gamepaln affectring over/under is not "random". There are better teams, there are better players, there are more advantageous matchups that can be recognized by bettors.

There are 120 or so plays in a football game....all of which enter into the final result. Not just the ones people select as being the ones that made a difference. All of the 120 plays have the capability of going towards making a difference in the game.

And how do you explain the people who make a good living betting on sports. Billy Walters is the higher profile person. But unlike casino ttable games where the vig s fixed in the long run.....with hundreds of games available per week....who is to say they ALL have an accurate line..who is to say "the man" is infallable.

Quote: kewlj

Well that didn't work out! :-( Even worse than the $800 bucks I lost is the bs, I am getting from one of my housemates, who is a Seattle fan. But whatever.

Still can't see how this is a Northwest USA superbowl. lol But congrats to you mickeycrimm. Glad someone is happy tonight.

kewlj: FWIW, the FAA considered Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Oregon, Utah, and Washington to be the Northwest Mountain Region for about 30 years, so that's how I think of it as well. They went through a consolidation recently, so that's no longer true, except in my heart. But it's definitely a contiguous feeling region, with the mountains, mostly sparse plains, and the sheer size of the states. YMMV (as it apparently does!). :)

Quote: mickeycrimm

Montanans are Broncoes and Seahawks fans. I believe stars like Peyton get too much credit when they win and too much credit when they lose. Just like last year, when Peyton puts 30+ points on the board and loses I don't blame him. I blame the defense.

Ding ding ding. He had a pretty terrible defense in IND for most of his time there, and got blamed for losing big games when they couldn't keep the other team off the board.

Quote: kewlj

Well that didn't work out!Still can't see how this is a Northwest USA superbowl. lol But congrats to you mickeycrimm. Glad someone is happy tonight.

Yes, I'm a happy camper. I think most of the country thought Peyton was gonna choke against Brady. He played almost flawlessly. I'm pulling for the Broncos in the Super Bowl. I've been a Manning fan since Archie was a freshman at Ole Miss. I remember one game, I think it was 1971. Ole Miss was ranked 20th in the nation and they had to go up to Knoxville that next weekend and play number 2, Tennesse. The Wednesday before the game a small plane flew over the Ole Miss campus and dropped off thousands of leaflets that said "Archie who? Archie Mud is what his name is gonna be when we get through with him." Archie and company went up to Knoxville and beat Tennessee 39 to zero.

Quote: LarryS

that statement is based on the assumption the "the line" is always accurate. The gamepaln affectring over/under is not "random". There are better teams, there are better players, there are more advantageous matchups that can be recognized by bettors.

There are 120 or so plays in a football game....all of which enter into the final result. Not just the ones people select as being the ones that made a difference. All of the 120 plays have the capability of going towards making a difference in the game.

And how do you explain the people who make a good living betting on sports. Billy Walters is the higher profile person. But unlike casino ttable games where the vig s fixed in the long run.....with hundreds of games available per week....who is to say they ALL have an accurate line..who is to say "the man" is infallable.

We've had this debate before. As I watch a game it's clear to me that a few key unknowable events/plays make a huge difference in the point spread outcome. One play can swing the momentum and cause a winning point spread outcome into a losing PSO. A missed block, a tipped pass intercepted, field goal hitting right/wrong side of upright, player slips on cut, player fumbles, bad calls, missed tackle, key injury, missed assignment, changing weather conditions during game, blocked punt, good play call at the exact right moment, poor spots by refs, ball taking crazy bounce......on and on and on.

Breaking even requires the sports bettor to hit nearly 54 games out of a 100 ATS ......not easy my friend. Sports monitoring services clearly show how difficult it is to be successful betting sports. The "experts" have years were they can't hit 50% of their selections.

You can break a game down 50 ways from Sunday only to find the game unfolds on a completely different tangent.

I'm sure there are a few handicappers that are on a good runs but good runs always come to an end.

As I recall Sonny Reizner (sp) a renowned sports handicapper went 5 years before seeing an uptick in his bankroll.

I'm 15 & 3 this postseason with 2 pushes. I'll sell my super bowl picks for $10 each ;) jk

Quote: Beardgoat

I'm 15 & 3 this postseason with 2 pushes. I'll sell my super bowl picks for $10 each ;) jk

Beardgoat the Greek......good job. Make sure you pay all taxes the country needs you.

Quote: Beardgoat

I'm 15 & 3 this postseason with 2 pushes. I'll sell my super bowl picks for $10 each ;) jk

Nicely done! I never thought I'd pick 20 games at .667 and be like, "Man, I suck."

Quote: treetopbuddy

We've had this debate before. As I watch a game it's clear to me that a few key unknowable events/plays make a huge difference in the point spread outcome. One play can swing the momentum and cause a winning point spread outcome into a losing PSO. A missed block, a tipped pass intercepted, field goal hitting right/wrong side of upright, player slips on cut, player fumbles, bad calls, missed tackle, key injury, missed assignment, changing weather conditions during game, blocked punt, good play call at the exact right moment, poor spots by refs, ball taking crazy bounce......on and on and on.

Breaking even requires the sports bettor to hit nearly 54 games out of a 100 ATS ......not easy my friend. Sports monitoring services clearly show how difficult it is to be successful betting sports. The "experts" have years were they can't hit 50% of their selections.

You can break a game down 50 ways from Sunday only to find the game unfolds on a completely different tangent.

I'm sure there are a few handicappers that are on a good runs but good runs always come to an end.

As I recall Sonny Reizner (sp) a renowned sports handicapper went 5 years before seeing an uptick in his bankroll.

There are 120 plays in football where a team has a chance to make a dioffeence. You see the overt fumble,

What about a defensive line that is physical and pounds the offensive line for 3 quarters. There is no overt fumble that you can point to, no interceptons that you can point to....but the defensive players are pounding and being physical with the offensive line of the opponent. Then in the fouth quarter the offensive lines cracks from being physically beaten down and allows sacks, has their run game stopped, and has to punt on every possession. Those successful plays by the defense were accomplished by 40 supposedly non eventful plays in the first 3 qtrs.
The overt fumble, or interception is just one or 2 plays out of the 120 plays in the game. The game is not won or lost on those isolated plays.
The game is won or lost more on what goes on or doesnt go on in the other 118 plays. And what goes on in those other 118 plays is not really recognized by bettors....all they can see is the unusual couple of plays.

If a team recovers a fumble in the last minute and kicks a fieldgoal to win......that field goal is just one of many scopring opportinities each team had in the game.
The losing team had opportunities to extend drives to get other fieldgoals earlier in the game, they has a penalty to take them out of field goal range, they had a blown coverage allowing the opponent to advance in t he 2nd qtr. They had a few offside penalties that helped kill a drive. You add all the 120 plays together and you get a win or loss. You add the 120 plays together and you get an over or under. The time on the clock is irrelevant to the final score to a serious bettor.

To the novice bettor, yes they love to talk about how they "just lost" or had a "bad beat" based on pointing out one or 2 plays.....but we all know that their team had 118 other plays to make a difference in the game