Football Squares: Multi-pick strategy
January 13th, 2014 at 11:35:06 AM
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This may have been discussed prior, or even on WoO, but I never have run across it.
Say you are in a football pool where you purchase squares.
When you buy only 1 square, there is no strategy to where you place it, as numbers are placed randomly along the outskirts.
But what when you buy two squares? Should you put them in the same row/column? Or place them in different ranks?
What if you know what side is "home" and what side is "visitor"? Or you knew which team was rows/columns?
Does strategy change for three squares, or four, or more?
Say you are in a football pool where you purchase squares.
When you buy only 1 square, there is no strategy to where you place it, as numbers are placed randomly along the outskirts.
But what when you buy two squares? Should you put them in the same row/column? Or place them in different ranks?
What if you know what side is "home" and what side is "visitor"? Or you knew which team was rows/columns?
Does strategy change for three squares, or four, or more?
-Dween!
January 13th, 2014 at 11:53:00 AM
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Quote: DweenThis may have been discussed prior, or even on WoO, but I never have run across it.
Say you are in a football pool where you purchase squares.
When you buy only 1 square, there is no strategy to where you place it, as numbers are placed randomly along the outskirts.
But what when you buy two squares? Should you put them in the same row/column? Or place them in different ranks?
What if you know what side is "home" and what side is "visitor"? Or you knew which team was rows/columns?
Does strategy change for three squares, or four, or more?
Dween,
Since I want the 3, 7, and/or 0 (I think those are the most common, especially if you're doing prizes by quarter), and the numbers won't be revealed/assigned til after the 100 squares are taken, I think your best strategy is to place your squares like the knight moves, in chess, for however many you are buying, so you have as little overlap as possible and get the most coverage for the least money.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
January 14th, 2014 at 12:51:24 AM
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This very question is described in (great) detail at http://footballsquares.blogspot.com.
If the numbers for the rows and columns are chosen randomly after the squares are selected, the game is fair in that you'll have the same probability per square to have a winning square. No way to increase your expectation value.
However, there is a strategy. In a typical game with winning squares at the end of the 1st three quarters and the final score, you can either win 0, 1, 2, 3, or all 4 squares. Depending on what you do, you change the likelihood for these different outcomes. In short, you can trade a small probability for winning one square for a larger probability for winning two or more squares.
If you want to maximize your probability for winning something, then select squares on unique rows and columns.
If you want to maximize your probability for winning two or more squares (and be king for the day!), select squares on the row or column corresponding to the underdog (or visitor team).
If the numbers for the rows and columns are chosen randomly after the squares are selected, the game is fair in that you'll have the same probability per square to have a winning square. No way to increase your expectation value.
However, there is a strategy. In a typical game with winning squares at the end of the 1st three quarters and the final score, you can either win 0, 1, 2, 3, or all 4 squares. Depending on what you do, you change the likelihood for these different outcomes. In short, you can trade a small probability for winning one square for a larger probability for winning two or more squares.
If you want to maximize your probability for winning something, then select squares on unique rows and columns.
If you want to maximize your probability for winning two or more squares (and be king for the day!), select squares on the row or column corresponding to the underdog (or visitor team).
